DARPA Launch Challenge

[Craftyatom]

One thing that doesn't seem to get discussed very often with rocket development is that after any new vehicle flies for the first time (or even during the first half a dozen times), there seems to be quite a long period of sorting out the various unexpected mechanical issues that cropped up during the flight.

For what it's worth, when I spoke with Will Pomerantz of Virgin Orbit, he was well aware of how long second flights usually took.  In fact, he mentioned that a successful first launch statistically increased the time to a second flight, when compared to first flights that failed.  In light of this, they were very focused on pre-launch testing and characterization.

Whether such efforts will be fruitful, we can't say.  Of course there will always be lessons learned from the first orbital success, for each company.  But at least one provider (and, one would hope, all three) is aware of the problem, and has mitigation in mind.

[ringsider]

What is the betting on these companies?

Virgin has to be the hot favorite. They are closest to firing something, have huge scale and resources and have a very repeatable concept.

Then it is hard to choose.

Astra probably has the next best chance - they at least have 2-3 suborbital launches from Kodiak Island.

Vector is an outsider - the weak suborbital performance to date, the delays announced recently...

Where can I get a sportsbook price?

[Kryten]

https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2019-10-22
VO have quit, it's a one-horse race now.

The remaining qualifying competitor is a space startup comprising industry veterans currently operating in stealth mode while the company works toward internal technical milestones. The team will receive notification of the first launch site in January 2020 with the first launch window targeted for February. Virgin Orbit, which entered the competition via its wholly owned subsidiary, VOX Space, exited the competition in October to focus on its upcoming commercial launches. A third team, Vector Launch, withdrew from the Challenge in September due to a change in the company’s structure and financial status.

[matthewkantar]

Seems a poorly designed race that has no winner.

[gongora]

Seems a poorly designed race that has no winner.

It has very particular requirements (no fixed launch infrastructure) and was probably started a year or two earlier than it should have been (or at least the actual launches should have been a little farther out).