Tropical Storm Hanna

[Orbiter]

Good news is, this one doesn't look to go anywere near land judging by the models.

Uhh - Hanna is not that far from land, so I'd check different models

its a second system, off Africa. National Hurricane Center calls it 99L, likely to become Tropical Depression 10 tomorrow.

[rdale]

Gotcha. I'll start a new thread on that once it appears NASA sites have a chance at being impacted...

[Chris Bergin]

Is this usual? There's two hurricanes and two more (potentially) already on the way (Ike and Josphine). It's like they are lining up recently.

(I know in weather terms this is like me going on the Shuttle Q&A and asking how many SSMEs an orbiter has but out of interest...)

[Lee Jay]

We're in the peak of the hurricane season, and remember 2005 where we went through the whole alphabet and started into the Greek letters at the end of October!

[ChrisGebhardt]

Is this usual? There's two hurricanes and two more (potentially) already on the way (Ike and Josphine). It's like they are lining up recently.

(I know in weather terms this is like me going on the Shuttle Q&A and asking how many SSMEs an orbiter has but out of interest...)

Yeah, it's normal.  Usually around this time we see storms line up like this in the Atlantic because most late-August/early-September storms form from thunderstorms coming off Africa. Usually, they don't all come toward the US but hey... we take what we're given living on the coast.

[Chris Bergin]

Thanks for the answers. Let's "hope" this doesn't mess up with 125/126's plans too much.

[Orbiter]

Gotcha. I'll start a new thread on that once it appears NASA sites have a chance at being impacted...

Your go on that now, The National Hurricane Center has upgraded 99L to Tropical Depression 10.

[cb6785]

[LostInSpace]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

[rdale]

Your go on that now, The National Hurricane Center has upgraded 99L to Tropical Depression 10.

TD10 is FAR FAR from being a threat to any NASA location...

Hanna still holds just a slim chance of bringing high winds to KSC. All signs continue to keep her too far offshore to have an impact.

[Chris Bergin]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

Thanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?

"72 hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot / 58 mph sustained winds
Personnel report for normal duty as usual. HMT begins developing securing plans and final configurations required for all Shuttle facilities and hardware..."

[psloss]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

Thanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?

Yes.

[Chris Bergin]

Hanna still holds just a slim chance of bringing high winds to KSC. All signs continue to keep her too far offshore to have an impact.

Potentially dumb question:

How long would you estimate it would take for the forecast to be at a good level of confidence that Hanna won't be a threat?

You see where I'm going with this. Could they have a confident forecast tomorrow, resulting in a decision to go for rollout that evening, for example? Or are they simply that unpredictable that even with a low threat, they'll need to wait until it's literally passing by?

I ask because the computer models aren't exactly raising hope (or am I reading way too much into those).

[Chris Bergin]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

Thanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?

Yes.

Thanks. I'm much happier with hardware

[rdale]

My guess is that they are going to keep the 10-20% band over FL until Hanna is completely a non-entity or passing by... Good news is that she really doesn't look healthy this morning. And she's headed towards an environment that doesn't help. So there is some chance that if she continues stay the same or even decrease, we could have better news tomorrow. If she doesn't strengthen, then by default the odds of >50kts winds "should" decrease as well.

[cb6785]

Looks like she's getting weaker....down to a TS at the moment and no longer predicted to become a CAT2

[Chris Bergin]

Ops meeting concludes with deeming Hanna's too much of a threat and no rollout likely till the weekend.

[mike robel]

Chris, the angle of approach for Hanna makes it hard to say when it is no longer a threat.  But it also has to do with the size of the storm, the size of the probability cone, the side of the storm you are on (for Hanna left side is the "good" side, and the fact that you can't rely on the center line track to decide if you are "safe" from the zone.

For example, the Hurricane that tore all the sheeting of the VAB hit in Fort Pierce (as I recall) but did no damage to the area around my house on Merritt Island, some 20 miles closer to the storm center.

[rdale]

Recon airplanes are picking up the pace over Hanna now that Gustav is no longer a concern, but unless they find her completely dead I don't see KSC dropping below 15% of 50kt winds (from NHC, I'd give it a 1% chance based on her location / path / strength) so no chance of rollout until Friday at the earliest.

[Chris Bergin]

SHUTTLE ATLANTIS' MOVE TO PAD ON STANDBY FOR HANNA

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - Managers at NASA's Kennedy Space Center, Fla.,
will closely follow Tropical Storm Hanna to determine when would be
the best time this week to move space shuttle Atlantis to its launch
pad.

Currently, the earliest Atlantis will be rolled out from Kennedy's
Vehicle Assembly Building to Launch Pad 39A is Thursday, Sept. 4, at
12:01 a.m. EDT.

If the storm stays on its current track, managers will wait until it
passes off the coast of Kennedy and then move Atlantis to the pad,
most likely Saturday morning. Rollout had been scheduled for Tuesday,
but was delayed to allow managers to evaluate Hanna's possible
affects on the center.

Atlantis is targeted to lift off Oct. 8 on an 11-day mission to
service NASA's Hubble Space Telescope. Managers will evaluate any
affects from Hanna on supporting the target date.