Quote from: LostInSpace link=xtopic=14164.msg311730#msg311730 date=1220364801KSC is now at level 4 in prep for HannaThanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?"72 hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot / 58 mph sustained windsPersonnel report for normal duty as usual. HMT begins developing securing plans and final configurations required for all Shuttle facilities and hardware..."
KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna
NASA PAO not sure whether Hanna or Ike, but nice shots anyway:
Hanna is BARELY a tropical storm right now... Pressure way up, winds way down. I'm shocked that NHC still has her becoming a hurricane, I just don't see that given her status this morning. Movement continues to the EAST.
Perhaps if the storm keeps moving East that's a good sign for KSC and they MAY be able to roll earlier.
It's not as much a northward motion yet - there's just no way to find a center (one doesn't exist really) so they are using what the computers said would happen to start off a path. No computer really ramps her up at all, NHC is just being conservative.But at least we dropped to only a 10% chance of > 50kt winds!
I have a question about these "HURCON" conditions. It is stated as "x hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot winds. But NHC will rarely, if ever, give 100% probability of winds at a fixed location, usually it is in graphical form of percentage. For example, when HURCON IV was declared for KSC, the NHC graphic showed a probability of 50 knot winds within 72 hours of about 20% at KSC. Is there a "magic number" for these percentages or is a decision based solely on projected path and expected storm strength, rather than on wind speed probability data?