Tropical Storm Hanna

[rdale]

...HANNA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
HISPANIOLA...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents

[psloss]

Still a ways off - so no need from drama at this time - but she might impact KSC operations next week...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents

This official already?

[ChrisGebhardt]

Ah, hurricane season in Florida... how I've missed thee.

[rdale]

The name? No - but will be in the next 24 hours (if not already, looking great on sat.)

[psloss]

The name? No - but will be in the next 24 hours (if not already, looking great on sat.)

It is now...farther away from the coast than I thought, too.

[TrueBlueWitt]

The name? No - but will be in the next 24 hours (if not already, looking great on sat.)

Rob, Any comments on the NHC's near total inability to predict where a storm will be this year more than 24hrs out? and sometimes not even that far(Fay and Gustav both).  This year seems to be the year for erratic storms.

[ChrisGebhardt]

The name? No - but will be in the next 24 hours (if not already, looking great on sat.)

Rob, Any comments on the NHC's near total inability to predict where a storm will be this year more than 24hrs out? and sometimes not even that far(Fay and Gustav both).  This year seems to be the year for erratic storms.

Well, predictions are just that. Living in Florida we know not to look at the line on the map but rather the entire threat cone. If you go by that, the location of the storms (Fay and Gustav) have fallen in that cone. As for timing, one can't even predict with absolute certainty how long their drive to work will take.  Sometimes you're early. Sometimes you're late. Storms are the same way.The timeline for storms is just an educated guess based on what the weather will probably be like when the storm reaches a certain location and what effects another weather system will probably have on the storm in question.

[rdale]

Rob, Any comments on the NHC's near total inability to predict where a storm will be this year more than 24hrs out? and sometimes not even that far(Fay and Gustav both).  This year seems to be the year for erratic storms.

It's been an "off-nominal" year to slip in a NASA term Look at Fay's final path - it meandered every which way. The steering currents aloft just aren't very organized, which makes prediction all the more difficult.

To put it in simpler terms - when I have a line of strong storms to my west moving east at 45mph, and I know the environment overhead supports them remaining strong, it's VERY easy for me to tell that you'll get wet at 1:45pm. If it's a typical summer afternoon, where storms pop-up/die at will and move 5-10mph, I have no idea whether or not you'll get wet at 1:45pm...

[MySDCUserID]

The name? No - but will be in the next 24 hours (if not already, looking great on sat.)

Rob, Any comments on the NHC's near total inability to predict where a storm will be this year more than 24hrs out? and sometimes not even that far(Fay and Gustav both).  This year seems to be the year for erratic storms.

Well, the NHC does have 100% success with providing insurance companies the "rationale" to drive up home owners insurance unnecessarily. 

[rdale]

Not sure what you mean...

[jaythehokie]

a new path direction with forecast at hurricane strength pretty near KSC.  I really hope this doesn't come to pass... the lost contingency days are really starting to put a strain on STS-125 and now STS-126.  Not to mention a couple of other launches from CCAFS.

[rdale]

Hanna turned out notably weaker than expected when recon arrived today, I wouldn't push back launch dates based on her yet

[cb6785]

Forecasts look a little bit better today, not showing Hannah as a possible Cat1 near KSC anymore.


Upd: Seems to get stronger and closer to KSC.

[Lee Jay]

Hanna is now officially a hurricane.

[Ronsmytheiii]

The system near Africa now has a high probability of becoming a tropical system:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

Note:  This would be considered a Cape Verde Hurricane, which are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS

[sts1canada]

Hurricane Hanna is now starting to affect rollout plans for Atlantis; it will be interesting to see how close she gets to KSC around Thursday per the current track predicts, and what her effects on KSC will be.

Richard

[wannamoonbase]

I can't see a rollout happening.

It could strengthen and change track very easily.

[cb6785]

Latest prediction:

[Orbiter]

The system near Africa now has a high probability of becoming a tropical system:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

Note:  This would be considered a Cape Verde Hurricane, which are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS

Here's something to consider  (Its called Invest 99L for the short term via NHC.) The Strongest storms form from Cape Verde storms, but THE strongest storm that ever formed in the Atlantic formed from a Cold Front. So, yea, Cape Verde Hurricanes are extremely dangerous. Good news is, this one doesn't look to go anywere near land judging by the models.

[rdale]

Good news is, this one doesn't look to go anywere near land judging by the models.

Uhh - Hanna is not that far from land, so I'd check different models

[Orbiter]

Good news is, this one doesn't look to go anywere near land judging by the models.

Uhh - Hanna is not that far from land, so I'd check different models

its a second system, off Africa. National Hurricane Center calls it 99L, likely to become Tropical Depression 10 tomorrow.

[rdale]

Gotcha. I'll start a new thread on that once it appears NASA sites have a chance at being impacted...

[Chris Bergin]

Is this usual? There's two hurricanes and two more (potentially) already on the way (Ike and Josphine). It's like they are lining up recently.

(I know in weather terms this is like me going on the Shuttle Q&A and asking how many SSMEs an orbiter has but out of interest...)

[Lee Jay]

We're in the peak of the hurricane season, and remember 2005 where we went through the whole alphabet and started into the Greek letters at the end of October!

[ChrisGebhardt]

Is this usual? There's two hurricanes and two more (potentially) already on the way (Ike and Josphine). It's like they are lining up recently.

(I know in weather terms this is like me going on the Shuttle Q&A and asking how many SSMEs an orbiter has but out of interest...)

Yeah, it's normal.  Usually around this time we see storms line up like this in the Atlantic because most late-August/early-September storms form from thunderstorms coming off Africa. Usually, they don't all come toward the US but hey... we take what we're given living on the coast.

[Chris Bergin]

Thanks for the answers. Let's "hope" this doesn't mess up with 125/126's plans too much.

[Orbiter]

Gotcha. I'll start a new thread on that once it appears NASA sites have a chance at being impacted...

Your go on that now, The National Hurricane Center has upgraded 99L to Tropical Depression 10.

[cb6785]

[LostInSpace]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

[rdale]

Your go on that now, The National Hurricane Center has upgraded 99L to Tropical Depression 10.

TD10 is FAR FAR from being a threat to any NASA location...

Hanna still holds just a slim chance of bringing high winds to KSC. All signs continue to keep her too far offshore to have an impact.

[Chris Bergin]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

Thanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?

"72 hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot / 58 mph sustained winds
Personnel report for normal duty as usual. HMT begins developing securing plans and final configurations required for all Shuttle facilities and hardware..."

[psloss]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

Thanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?

Yes.

[Chris Bergin]

Hanna still holds just a slim chance of bringing high winds to KSC. All signs continue to keep her too far offshore to have an impact.

Potentially dumb question:

How long would you estimate it would take for the forecast to be at a good level of confidence that Hanna won't be a threat?

You see where I'm going with this. Could they have a confident forecast tomorrow, resulting in a decision to go for rollout that evening, for example? Or are they simply that unpredictable that even with a low threat, they'll need to wait until it's literally passing by?

I ask because the computer models aren't exactly raising hope (or am I reading way too much into those).

[Chris Bergin]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

Thanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?

Yes.

Thanks. I'm much happier with hardware

[rdale]

My guess is that they are going to keep the 10-20% band over FL until Hanna is completely a non-entity or passing by... Good news is that she really doesn't look healthy this morning. And she's headed towards an environment that doesn't help. So there is some chance that if she continues stay the same or even decrease, we could have better news tomorrow. If she doesn't strengthen, then by default the odds of >50kts winds "should" decrease as well.

[cb6785]

Looks like she's getting weaker....down to a TS at the moment and no longer predicted to become a CAT2

[Chris Bergin]

Ops meeting concludes with deeming Hanna's too much of a threat and no rollout likely till the weekend.

[mike robel]

Chris, the angle of approach for Hanna makes it hard to say when it is no longer a threat.  But it also has to do with the size of the storm, the size of the probability cone, the side of the storm you are on (for Hanna left side is the "good" side, and the fact that you can't rely on the center line track to decide if you are "safe" from the zone.

For example, the Hurricane that tore all the sheeting of the VAB hit in Fort Pierce (as I recall) but did no damage to the area around my house on Merritt Island, some 20 miles closer to the storm center.

[rdale]

Recon airplanes are picking up the pace over Hanna now that Gustav is no longer a concern, but unless they find her completely dead I don't see KSC dropping below 15% of 50kt winds (from NHC, I'd give it a 1% chance based on her location / path / strength) so no chance of rollout until Friday at the earliest.

[Chris Bergin]

SHUTTLE ATLANTIS' MOVE TO PAD ON STANDBY FOR HANNA

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - Managers at NASA's Kennedy Space Center, Fla.,
will closely follow Tropical Storm Hanna to determine when would be
the best time this week to move space shuttle Atlantis to its launch
pad.

Currently, the earliest Atlantis will be rolled out from Kennedy's
Vehicle Assembly Building to Launch Pad 39A is Thursday, Sept. 4, at
12:01 a.m. EDT.

If the storm stays on its current track, managers will wait until it
passes off the coast of Kennedy and then move Atlantis to the pad,
most likely Saturday morning. Rollout had been scheduled for Tuesday,
but was delayed to allow managers to evaluate Hanna's possible
affects on the center.

Atlantis is targeted to lift off Oct. 8 on an 11-day mission to
service NASA's Hubble Space Telescope. Managers will evaluate any
affects from Hanna on supporting the target date.

[rdale]

Hanna slightly weakened during the day, and isn't expected to gain much (if any) strength over the next 24 hours.

[Orbiter]

Hurricane season is really walloping the Space Shuttle launch schedule for STS-125.

[RedSky]

Here's a schematic of the potential wind swath (10m sustained 1-minute in mph) for Hanna which uses the NHC "wind radii" on the forecast advisories (the 5PM EDT 2 Sep Advisory):

[rdale]

Unfortunately that uses NHC points, which are not necessarily valid. Strangely enough - she has weakened more and begun moving EAST this evening!

[MechTech]

We jacked up the RSS on A today. Just let it down last week after jacking for Fay. Gets the drive wheels off the tracks so that wind loading can't damage the wheels.

[cd-slam]

KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna

Thanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?

"72 hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot / 58 mph sustained winds
Personnel report for normal duty as usual. HMT begins developing securing plans and final configurations required for all Shuttle facilities and hardware..."

I have a question about these "HURCON" conditions. It is stated as "x hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot winds. But NHC will rarely, if ever, give 100% probability of winds at a fixed location, usually it is in graphical form of percentage. For example, when HURCON IV was declared for KSC, the NHC graphic showed a probability of 50 knot winds within 72 hours of about 20% at KSC.

Is there a "magic number" for these percentages or is a decision based solely on projected path and expected storm strength, rather than on wind speed probability data? 

[Jim]

Just ignore the wind speed numbers.  "x hours prior to forecasted arrival of storm"

[rdale]

Hanna is BARELY a tropical storm right now... Pressure way up, winds way down. I'm shocked that NHC still has her becoming a hurricane, I just don't see that given her status this morning. Movement continues to the EAST.

[marshallsplace]

NASA PAO not sure whether Hanna or Ike, but nice shots anyway:

[psloss]

NASA PAO not sure whether Hanna or Ike, but nice shots anyway:

Ike.  Hanna has rarely had this kind of "presentation."

[shuttlefan]

Hanna is BARELY a tropical storm right now... Pressure way up, winds way down. I'm shocked that NHC still has her becoming a hurricane, I just don't see that given her status this morning. Movement continues to the EAST.

Perhaps if the storm keeps moving East that's a good sign for KSC and they MAY be able to roll earlier.

[psloss]

Perhaps if the storm keeps moving East that's a good sign for KSC and they MAY be able to roll earlier.

It's also possible that the current meandering of the storm just delays it from clearing the KSC area, which could extend the delay to the 125 rollout past Saturday.

[rdale]

Agreed - if they aren't rolling with a 10% chance of winds exceeding the criteria, they aren't going anywhere anytime soon. I disagree, but I'm just a weatherman

[ChrisGebhardt]

11am report has Hanna finally moving North at 5mph.  New path attached. Threat cone has shifted further east.

[rdale]

It's not as much a northward motion yet - there's just no way to find a center (one doesn't exist really) so they are using what the computers said would happen to start off a path. No computer really ramps her up at all, NHC is just being conservative.

But at least we dropped to only a 10% chance of > 50kt winds!

[ChrisGebhardt]

It's not as much a northward motion yet - there's just no way to find a center (one doesn't exist really) so they are using what the computers said would happen to start off a path. No computer really ramps her up at all, NHC is just being conservative.

But at least we dropped to only a 10% chance of > 50kt winds!

Ah... thanks Rob. That's the information you don't hear on the news down here.

[Antares]

I have a question about these "HURCON" conditions. It is stated as "x hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot winds. But NHC will rarely, if ever, give 100% probability of winds at a fixed location, usually it is in graphical form of percentage. For example, when HURCON IV was declared for KSC, the NHC graphic showed a probability of 50 knot winds within 72 hours of about 20% at KSC.

Is there a "magic number" for these percentages or is a decision based solely on projected path and expected storm strength, rather than on wind speed probability data? 

These calls are made by Program management under advice of the Spaceflight Meteorology Group at JSC and the 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick.  They get a lot of their info from the NHC, but they paint with a finer brush and use their own products rather than just the NHC stuff.

[Chris Bergin]

Hanna reducing her threat? We're hearing rollout is now Thursday 10am.

[mike robel]

Florida appears to be outside the probablity cone at the present time and Hanna should be fairly far off shore if the current trend continues.

[rdale]

Hanna's central pressure has dropped just a bit per the last recon plane, but no changes in the big picture. All computer forecasts keep it well away from a KSC impact.

[cb6785]

[charlieb]

Hanna has become a dud of sorts - for Florida at least thankfully...  But all eyes are on Ike, and I hope this rollout doesn't become a roll-back next Monday........

[Ronsmytheiii]

Hanna has become a dud of sorts

Easy for you to say, your not in the cone of that "dud"   

Langley could be affected...

[jaythehokie]

that's what I am most worried about... a cat 4 near the bahamas by tuesday of next week.  They could easily rollout and no sooner get there than have to rollback... then all the remaining contingency days are REALLY shot...

Not to mention the flow for STS-126 being affected as well...

[rdale]

I'm not sure how rolling out and rolling back uses more contingency time than not rolling out at all... Explain the difference please?

[kraisee]

Hanna is in town at the Cape right now.

Some of the outer feeder-bands have been here since around 3am whipping the trees around again and dropping water on us once more.   As I look outside my window here there are quite a few periods of reduced visibility down to <100m because of the rain.   No mistaking it as anything other than a tropical storm.

From the local weather forecast it looks like a LOT more water is coming this way from the south as Hanna moves up the coast - and more rain is not welcome after the widespread flooding from Fay already, the ground here is still saturated so more rain will just settle straight on the surface.

Ross.

[Lawntonlookirs]

The Hurricane Hunters are about 80 miles off the coast of the KSC and have 58 MPH flight level winds.  Flying at 4708 feet as of 7:27 EDT

[Lee Jay]

[rdale]

She took a little jog west which brought the gusty winds to the area earlier today, but it's now returned to a northward motion and a turn to the northeast is still expected.

[Justin Space]

Thanks for sending Hanna our way. We're not used to anything above a slight breeze!

Sky News are going panic and make this out as if it's a Cat 5. They'll have us all catching planes to Aussie Land by Tuesday!

[kraisee]

While Hanna dropped a lot of rain on us, it was nothing like that nasty storm which struck England back in 1987, nor the one which followed that in 1990.   Those were worse.

You might get some pretty good rainfall and some winds there in Blighty if Hanna ever reaches you, but unless your area is prone to flooding anyway, you should be fine.   Just take a bit extra care out on the roads

The closest storm I've been in here on the space coast of Florida to those two storms in England was Hurricane Charley.   By the time Charley got to the East coast of Florida it was down from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 here.   That was very similar indeed (although temperatures weren't as cold as England!).   West coast of Florida got whacked good & proper by Charley though...   Glad it wasn't here.

Ross.

[Antares]

OT sorta: were you around for Wilma?  A cold front followed the hurricane.  Wind chills were down in the low 40s (F).

[Chris Bergin]

Thanks for sending Hanna our way. We're not used to anything above a slight breeze!

Sky News are going panic and make this out as if it's a Cat 5. They'll have us all catching planes to Aussie Land by Tuesday!

You called it!

[Orbiter]

Some reason a lot of folks thinks Gustav was all hype, but it caused pretty serious damage, 20$ billion dollars and most of that in the USA. I'm pretty happy they were able to Rollout Atlantis, and Hanna's last advisory has been issued.