Still a ways off - so no need from drama at this time - but she might impact KSC operations next week...http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents
The name? No - but will be in the next 24 hours (if not already, looking great on sat.)
Quote from: rdale on 08/28/2008 02:24 pmThe name? No - but will be in the next 24 hours (if not already, looking great on sat.)Rob, Any comments on the NHC's near total inability to predict where a storm will be this year more than 24hrs out? and sometimes not even that far(Fay and Gustav both). This year seems to be the year for erratic storms.
Rob, Any comments on the NHC's near total inability to predict where a storm will be this year more than 24hrs out? and sometimes not even that far(Fay and Gustav both). This year seems to be the year for erratic storms.
The system near Africa now has a high probability of becoming a tropical system:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contentsNote: This would be considered a Cape Verde Hurricane, which are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
Good news is, this one doesn't look to go anywere near land judging by the models.
Quote from: Orbiter on 09/02/2008 12:07 amGood news is, this one doesn't look to go anywere near land judging by the models.Uhh - Hanna is not that far from land, so I'd check different models
Is this usual? There's two hurricanes and two more (potentially) already on the way (Ike and Josphine). It's like they are lining up recently.(I know in weather terms this is like me going on the Shuttle Q&A and asking how many SSMEs an orbiter has but out of interest...)
Gotcha. I'll start a new thread on that once it appears NASA sites have a chance at being impacted...
Your go on that now, The National Hurricane Center has upgraded 99L to Tropical Depression 10.
KSC is now at level 4 in prep for Hanna
Quote from: LostInSpace on 09/02/2008 02:13 pmKSC is now at level 4 in prep for HannaThanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?
Hanna still holds just a slim chance of bringing high winds to KSC. All signs continue to keep her too far offshore to have an impact.
Quote from: Chris Bergin on 09/02/2008 02:33 pmQuote from: LostInSpace on 09/02/2008 02:13 pmKSC is now at level 4 in prep for HannaThanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?Yes.
Quote from: LostInSpace link=xtopic=14164.msg311730#msg311730 date=1220364801KSC is now at level 4 in prep for HannaThanks. Is that the same as "HURCON IV"?"72 hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot / 58 mph sustained windsPersonnel report for normal duty as usual. HMT begins developing securing plans and final configurations required for all Shuttle facilities and hardware..."
NASA PAO not sure whether Hanna or Ike, but nice shots anyway:
Hanna is BARELY a tropical storm right now... Pressure way up, winds way down. I'm shocked that NHC still has her becoming a hurricane, I just don't see that given her status this morning. Movement continues to the EAST.
Perhaps if the storm keeps moving East that's a good sign for KSC and they MAY be able to roll earlier.
It's not as much a northward motion yet - there's just no way to find a center (one doesn't exist really) so they are using what the computers said would happen to start off a path. No computer really ramps her up at all, NHC is just being conservative.But at least we dropped to only a 10% chance of > 50kt winds!
I have a question about these "HURCON" conditions. It is stated as "x hours prior to forecasted arrival of 50 knot winds. But NHC will rarely, if ever, give 100% probability of winds at a fixed location, usually it is in graphical form of percentage. For example, when HURCON IV was declared for KSC, the NHC graphic showed a probability of 50 knot winds within 72 hours of about 20% at KSC. Is there a "magic number" for these percentages or is a decision based solely on projected path and expected storm strength, rather than on wind speed probability data?
Hanna has become a dud of sorts
Thanks for sending Hanna our way. We're not used to anything above a slight breeze!Sky News are going panic and make this out as if it's a Cat 5. They'll have us all catching planes to Aussie Land by Tuesday!