Poll

When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?

Week of 9/18-9/24
6 (5.6%)
Week of 9/25-10/1
17 (15.7%)
Week of 10/2-10/8
27 (25%)
Week of 10/9-10/15
22 (20.4%)
Week of 10/16-10/22
10 (9.3%)
Week of 10/23-10/29
12 (11.1%)
First half of November (10/30 - 11/15)
7 (6.5%)
Second half of November (11/16 - 11/30)
3 (2.8%)
First half of December (12/1 - 12/15)
1 (0.9%)
Second half of December (12/16 - 12/31)
1 (0.9%)
January 2024
0 (0%)
February 2024
0 (0%)
March 2024
0 (0%)
2Q 2024 (Apr-Jun 2024)
1 (0.9%)
2H 2024 (Jul-Dec 2024)
0 (0%)
Never
1 (0.9%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Voting closed: 09/17/2023 01:55 am


Author Topic: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?  (Read 5701 times)

Offline jongoff

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When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« on: 09/14/2023 01:55 am »
Ok, new poll. At this point the FAA has approved the mishap report for the previous Starship launch, and the Ship 25/Booster 9 combo is on the pad, with the vehicle and pad appearing to be technically ready to launch. So, when do you think they'll clear the launch tower? Do you think that we're right around the corner, and it'll fly sometime next week? Do you think that environmental permits are going to delay things into next year? Feel free to share your thoughts after voting.

I'm leaving the voting open for only three days (so it should close around 8pm MST on Saturday 9/16), but I am allowing people to change their votes while the poll is still open. I tried to have things pretty granular over the next few weeks, switching to gradually less and less granular buckets over time. And I included a pessimistic "Never" option in case you think something will happen that precludes this Super Heavy/Starship pair from ever flying.

Did I cover all the bases reasonably well?

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #1 on: 09/14/2023 02:13 am »
I guessed the last full week of October (10/23-10/29). My logic being that I just saw on Twitter that the FAA was saying it would take until October to finish their evaluation of SpaceX's accomplishing all the required changes from the mishap report. Add in delays for inevitable last minute technical issues, etc. I think late October is relatively safe. That said, I'm also assuming they don't run into any big environmental-related delays. I don't totally discount those, and if I had to create a probability distribution for their launch date, it would have a long tail stretching into late Q2 2024. But I'm willing to vote late October as the most likely IMO.

~Jon

Offline redneck

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #2 on: 09/14/2023 08:45 am »
I went with end of September/early October. Compelling logic is that my birthday falls in that week. In reality, I can't tell how it will shake out. It seems somewhat more complex than when you were on the Lunar Lander Challenge with Masten.

Offline meadows.st

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #3 on: 09/14/2023 11:28 am »
I chose second full week of October based on very little other than the "optimistic October" comment and my wishful thinking / fervent hope that SpaceX can pull another rabbit out of the proverbial hat.  I'm sure many/all space fans are with me in wanting to see a 3rd launch in 2023 and if this 2nd launch doesn't go in mid Oct, the chances of a third launch before Dec 31st become vanishing small IMHO
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Offline Jeff Lerner

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #4 on: 09/14/2023 11:51 am »
I chose end of October…lots of bureaucratic opportunities still to slow things down…

My sense is that SpaceX has the capability and desire  to go much faster but is being held back by current FAA process and possible environmental group challenges.

Makes me wonder if a moon landing would have ever taken place given today’s government regulations and protocols existing back then. I mean in the 60’s rockets were blowing up all the time …problems were analyzed, resolved and the next attempt came very quickly.

SpaceX’s iterative development approach means failure is an option…that’s how they learn..and quickly….but if each failure is going to take government reviews and approvals, success is going to come very slowly…

My $0.02…


Offline jongoff

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #5 on: 09/14/2023 02:39 pm »
I chose end of October…lots of bureaucratic opportunities still to slow things down…

My sense is that SpaceX has the capability and desire  to go much faster but is being held back by current FAA process and possible environmental group challenges.

Makes me wonder if a moon landing would have ever taken place given today’s government regulations and protocols existing back then. I mean in the 60’s rockets were blowing up all the time …problems were analyzed, resolved and the next attempt came very quickly.

SpaceX’s iterative development approach means failure is an option…that’s how they learn..and quickly….but if each failure is going to take government reviews and approvals, success is going to come very slowly…

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how long this takes. Assuming they don't have any major go-backs, like some sort of environmental remediation requirement (wastewater discharge permits?), it could be pretty fast. Your iteration strategy has to take into account some level of regulatory compliance or you're not being realistic.

~Jon

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #6 on: 09/14/2023 07:12 pm »
I voted later in October, but I think the voting is too clumpy.

There’s not a zero chance that it won’t fly before December or January or later.
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #7 on: 09/14/2023 07:26 pm »
I voted later in October, but I think the voting is too clumpy.

There’s not a zero chance that it won’t fly before December or January or later.
This form of polling cannot be used to create a probability curve, because each responder needs to pick a single point. For example, you feel that the actual  probability has tails, but your response did not add anything to the tails. This is not a bug, it's just the way this kind of poll works.

Offline tyrred

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #8 on: 09/14/2023 09:10 pm »
Hopelessly optimistic for launch on 9/25

Maybe, just maybe all these guys can get their sh¡T together and make it happen

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #9 on: 09/14/2023 10:21 pm »
Given recent statements from the FAA, I expect this launch to take place next month.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #10 on: 09/15/2023 01:47 pm »
9/28/23 would be an interesting date for SpaceX to launch.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #11 on: 09/15/2023 09:11 pm »
New data that might impact your guesses:

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1702789621447295037

Offline deltaV

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #12 on: 09/15/2023 09:56 pm »
I voted "Week of 10/16-10/22" but it sounds like environmental reviews could add months to that.

Offline dglow

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #13 on: 09/16/2023 12:50 am »
New data that might impact your guesses:

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1702789621447295037

Wow, there it is — the very real possibility for that storm of concrete, rebar, and dust to bite their schedule in the butt. Good luck navigating this one, SpaceX.

Online chopsticks

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #14 on: 09/16/2023 04:57 am »
I believe the way it works is that the Fish and Wildlife Service have to sign off before the FAA is allowed to issue a launch license. I believe that the FAA coordinates and consults with the other appropriate regulatory agencies as required. Someone correct me if I have this wrong. But I don't believe that the FAA themselves control every aspect of the investigation(s), they are basically in charge of it and coordinate as necessary.

The FWS makes sense in this case since the last launch rained huge concrete chunks all over the wetlands into the habitat of protected species. Not ideal, so I'm guessing that there's a lot of work and assessment being done right now to ensure that that doesn't happen for flight two.
 

Online chopsticks

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #15 on: 09/16/2023 05:00 am »
New data that might impact your guesses:

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1702789621447295037

Wow, there it is — the very real possibility for that storm of concrete, rebar, and dust to bite their schedule in the butt. Good luck navigating this one, SpaceX.
Hmm, it may or may not have been advantageous for them to install the deluge system before the first flight if this ends up holding them back significantly.

Actions have consequences..

Offline sdsds

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #16 on: 11/01/2023 08:23 pm »
Bump to confirm: tea leaves suggest launch NET November 6, 2023, between 5:25 a.m. and 11:15 a.m., right? Eyeballing it, that roughly correlates to 86% of poll responses being over-optimistic....

For context, I remain optimistic that a Starship will depart on a trajectory towards Mars in the 2024 launch window! ;-)
« Last Edit: 11/01/2023 08:24 pm by sdsds »
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Offline Kspbutitscursed

Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #17 on: 11/05/2023 07:36 pm »
Bump to confirm: tea leaves suggest launch NET November 6, 2023, between 5:25 a.m. and 11:15 a.m., right? Eyeballing it, that roughly correlates to 86% of poll responses being over-optimistic....

For context, I remain optimistic that a Starship will depart on a trajectory towards Mars in the 2024 launch window! ;-)
looking more like november 13 now
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Offline sdsds

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #18 on: 11/14/2023 10:02 pm »
With launch now NET Nov 17, it looks like 3 out of the 108 respondents to this poll will likely be the winners, assuming the flight occurs before Dec 1. Congratulations in advance to those prognosticators (shamefully admitting I was slightly over-optimistic). :)
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Offline deltaV

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Re: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?
« Reply #19 on: 01/14/2024 10:43 pm »
It launched Nov 18 so "Second half of November (11/16 - 11/30)" won this poll. Most voters were too optimistic.

Tags: SpaceX booster 9 
 

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