Poll

How many engines will fail during IFT-2 first stage flight (not counting not-ignited)

None (except those that failed to start up)
44 (22.8%)
1 engine failure in flight
30 (15.5%)
2 engines fail in flight
71 (36.8%)
3 or 4
36 (18.7%)
5 or more
12 (6.2%)

Total Members Voted: 193

Voting closed: 11/09/2023 01:46 pm


Author Topic: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion  (Read 413925 times)

Offline Starmang10

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B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« on: 05/17/2023 03:23 pm »
Use this thread FAA, FWS, and other relevant permits/licenses for Boca Chica (Thread 5) for discussion on these subtopics.

Use this as a forum to spread your opinions, theories, and many more about the B9 + S25's Orbital Flight Campaign.

[zubenelgenubi edit]
« Last Edit: 09/22/2023 10:29 pm by zubenelgenubi »
hi! I am a 13 year old neurodivergent individual, although I can understand most things adults can too. I  have been interested in space since I was 5. Although I still have a lot to learn, I try my hardest to understand others, although sometimes I might not, so please correct me if I do not listen to others. thanks!

Offline Starmang10

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #1 on: 05/17/2023 03:25 pm »
Any updates on new closures? By the looks of it, 25 was going to roll to the launch site, why I think this is due to cones at the launch site.
« Last Edit: 05/17/2023 03:38 pm by Starmang10 »
hi! I am a 13 year old neurodivergent individual, although I can understand most things adults can too. I  have been interested in space since I was 5. Although I still have a lot to learn, I try my hardest to understand others, although sometimes I might not, so please correct me if I do not listen to others. thanks!

Offline Starmang10

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #2 on: 05/18/2023 03:30 pm »
Surprising that they're planning to launch S25, considering it is kind of outdated hardware :o
hi! I am a 13 year old neurodivergent individual, although I can understand most things adults can too. I  have been interested in space since I was 5. Although I still have a lot to learn, I try my hardest to understand others, although sometimes I might not, so please correct me if I do not listen to others. thanks!

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #3 on: 05/18/2023 03:36 pm »
Surprising that they're planning to launch S25, considering it is kind of outdated hardware :o
If it's good enough to accomplish the goals of their initial flight test, then why not go ahead and use it? S26 would not tell them anything about SS reentry. Expending S25 gets it off the books.
« Last Edit: 05/18/2023 04:14 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #4 on: 05/18/2023 04:02 pm »
Surprising that they're planning to launch S25, considering it is kind of outdated hardware :o

I don't think so, after 7/24 cartwheeling perhaps it's more important to ensure you can make it to staging anything after that is a bonus.

Also, if they think they can get to a 3rd flight in short order than having S26, 27 or 28 ready for B10 maybe why using a nearly ready S25 is important.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Offline xyv

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #5 on: 05/19/2023 01:11 am »
I speculated in the FAA licenses thread that the 24 - 26 - 27 flight order was to:

1) Get info on reentry without the risk of being dead in orbit - hence 'suborbital'

2) Prove on-orbit capability and precision de-orbit entry point (27 is backup for 26 like 25 was(is) for 24)

Since nothing was learned about 1), it follows that you would repeat the test if you could...hence 25 is logically the next launch attempt.

Offline geza

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #6 on: 05/19/2023 04:34 am »
I speculated in the FAA licenses thread that the 24 - 26 - 27 flight order was to:

1) Get info on reentry without the risk of being dead in orbit - hence 'suborbital'

2) Prove on-orbit capability and precision de-orbit entry point (27 is backup for 26 like 25 was(is) for 24)

Since nothing was learned about 1), it follows that you would repeat the test if you could...hence 25 is logically the next launch attempt.

What is your theory about lacking the heat shield and the elonerons for test 2? Why don't they use all opportunity to test EDL, as they did with F9?

Offline RamsesBic

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #7 on: 05/19/2023 07:25 am »
I speculated in the FAA licenses thread that the 24 - 26 - 27 flight order was to:

1) Get info on reentry without the risk of being dead in orbit - hence 'suborbital'

2) Prove on-orbit capability and precision de-orbit entry point (27 is backup for 26 like 25 was(is) for 24)

Since nothing was learned about 1), it follows that you would repeat the test if you could...hence 25 is logically the next launch attempt.

What is your theory about lacking the heat shield and the elonerons for test 2? Why don't they use all opportunity to test EDL, as they did with F9?

Not sure if it is the main reason for having no tiles, but one reason might be to find out at what point the ship starts to break up. From that as a baseline they could maybe be better able to calculate how many lost tiles are survivable. Just a guess.
The flaps would just complicate things?

Offline mildom

Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #8 on: 05/19/2023 01:26 pm »
Elon said they would repeat the 7/24 test to get data they didn't get the first time around.  This means sending an S24-like ship to near orbit and see how it responds in reentry.  S25 is the only ship like S24.  The test has to be with S25 if Elon holds to his stated plan to redo the test.

Offline chopsticks

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #9 on: 05/19/2023 01:50 pm »
Since nothing was learned about 1), it follows that you would repeat the test if you could...hence 25 is logically the next launch attempt.

This actually makes sense, I have been surprised that they are going to static fire S25 but they might as well fly it since *nothing was learned from S24.

*in the sense that it never flew on its own, obviously things were learned about the integrated flight

Offline xyv

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #10 on: 05/20/2023 08:30 pm »
What is your theory about lacking the heat shield and the elonerons for test 2? Why don't they use all opportunity to test EDL, as they did with F9?

Not so much a theroy as a hypothesis.  The first flight does not require orbital operations or control to come down where it is expected.  The FAA license was negotiated over several months and during that time SpaceX started removing tiles from (IIRC) SS26.  I am speculating that SpaceX proposed a non-heatshielded orbital test to minimize the risk of a more survivable random reentry should on orbit operations be more difficult than expected.

Get EDL data on a known trajectory...prove ability to do EDL with a lower risk of large debris orbital test - hence the tile removal.
« Last Edit: 05/21/2023 09:16 pm by xyv »

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #11 on: 05/20/2023 08:51 pm »
What is your theory about lacking the heat shield and the elonerons for test 2? Why don't they use all opportunity to test EDL, as they did with F9?
My guess is that S26 is a specialized variant that will demonstrate transfer of cryo fluids between tanks. Space was awarded a NASA contract for this demo. It is not contractually related to Starship HLS. So, do the demo and get paid, using a minimal Starship. On the same flight, they can get experience with Raptor restart and de-orbiting. flight would last a bit more that 24 hours prior to deliberate deorbit and breakup near Hawaii.

This guess is based solely on the existence of that contract, the odd design  of S26, and the re-entry path in the FAA document for flights two and three (which I suppose will now be flights three and four).

Offline geza

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #12 on: 05/21/2023 06:47 am »
and the re-entry path in the FAA document for flights two and three (which I suppose will now be flights three and four).

I missed this. Can you elaborate?

Offline joek

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #13 on: 05/21/2023 12:27 pm »
My guess is that S26 is a specialized variant that will demonstrate transfer of cryo fluids between tanks. Space was awarded a NASA contract for this demo. It is not contractually related to Starship HLS. So, do the demo and get paid, using a minimal Starship.
...

Are you referring to the $53.2M "Large-scale flight demonstration to transfer 10 metric tons of cryogenic propellant, specifically liquid oxygen, between tanks on a Starship vehicle. ..." (NASA Tipping Point selections, Oct-2020)?
« Last Edit: 05/21/2023 12:32 pm by joek »

Offline joek

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Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #15 on: 05/21/2023 01:54 pm »
I missed this. Can you elaborate?
See SpaceX Starship Super Heavy Project at the Boca Chica Launch Site; and specifically Written Re-Evaluation for SpaceX Starship Super Heavy Reentry.

My guess is that S26 is a specialized variant that will demonstrate transfer of cryo fluids between tanks. Space was awarded a NASA contract for this demo. It is not contractually related to Starship HLS. So, do the demo and get paid, using a minimal Starship.
...

Are you referring to the $53.2M "Large-scale flight demonstration to transfer 10 metric tons of cryogenic propellant, specifically liquid oxygen, between tanks on a Starship vehicle. ..." (NASA Tipping Point selections, Oct-2020)?

Thanks, Joek. Yes, that's exactly what I was referring to. You do need to read the WR carefully, because it refers to the first three flights, not just the first flight. Only the first flight tries for the SS to survive atmospheric re-entry and only the first flight is specifically less than a full orbit. The other two flights are "configurations not surviving atmospheric reentry", and are not restricted to a partial orbit in the WR. Note that the document does not explicitly say that those flights will make more than a partial orbit: that is purely my own interpretation.

Offline JaimeZX

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #16 on: 05/22/2023 08:01 pm »
Recommend adding a poll as these threads often do, along the lines of:
How far will 25-9 make it?
* Off the pad
* Max Q
* Staging
* B9 landing issue but S25 Full suborbital trajectory
* B9 and S25 complete flight profile as planned
-----------------------

Also... WRT Max Q... I've always wondered if that's something calculated based on velocity & altitude/air density, or does the ship have like... a pitot tube?

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #17 on: 05/22/2023 09:12 pm »
Recommend adding a poll as these threads often do, along the lines of:
How far will 25-9 make it?
* Off the pad
* Max Q
* Staging
* B9 landing issue but S25 Full suborbital trajectory
* B9 and S25 complete flight profile as planned
-----------------------

Also... WRT Max Q... I've always wondered if that's something calculated based on velocity & altitude/air density, or does the ship have like... a pitot tube?

I think: Staging + S25 ignition is likely.

If they stage, S25 ignites and B9 does any part of the RTLS test that would be a big success.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #18 on: 05/24/2023 12:57 am »
Is it possible that SpaceX could be making refinements to the engine assembly for Booster 9 so that not one or two Raptor engines of the first stage cut off two minutes into the next flight of the Starship?

Offline TomH

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Re: B9 + S25 IFT/General Discussion
« Reply #19 on: 05/24/2023 12:32 pm »
Recommend adding a poll as these threads often do, along the lines of:
How far will 25-9 make it?
* Off the pad
* Max Q
* Staging
* B9 landing issue but S25 Full suborbital trajectory
* B9 and S25 complete flight profile as planned
-----------------------

Also... WRT Max Q... I've always wondered if that's something calculated based on velocity & altitude/air density, or does the ship have like... a pitot tube?

You left out B9 successful landing, but S25 RUD upon reentry.

Tags: SpaceX FAA Delay 
 

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