Predictions for 2022 (Five years from 2017)

[scienceguy]

So what will be happening in human spaceflight in 2022, five years from now?

I will go first.

SpaceX will be preparing to launch people to Mars, having landed and set up equipment and a base there already.
ESA will have a base on the moon, operated like the ISS.
ISS will still be up there, still doing zero gravity research.
NASA will be using an orbital spaceplane, which replaced SLS and Orion years ago.
NASA will have sent robots to Europa, which are now drilling into the surface.

[meberbs]

So what will be happening in human spaceflight in 2022, five years from now?

I will go first.

SpaceX will be preparing to launch people to Mars, having landed and set up equipment and a base there already.
ESA will have a base on the moon, operated like the ISS.
ISS will still be up there, still doing zero gravity research.
NASA will be using an orbital spaceplane, which replaced SLS and Orion years ago.
NASA will have sent robots to Europa, which are now drilling into the surface.

Those are some ambitious predictions, organizations may be developing what you are talking about by then, but at best your predictions require the most optimistic timeline possible. For the Europa one, there is simply no way it could be done. The fastest Europa Clipper (or similar) could get to Jupiter is around 3 years if it is launched on something like SLS with a direct injection to Jupiter. More like 6 years if launched on something like an Atlas that is likely to be available in time. And then, there is the fact that a NASA mission in CDR phase right now would have trouble launching within 2 years, especially not one with this kind of scope, but there is nothing like that anywhere near a CDR.

That said, there is a lot that can be expected to happen by 2022, especially around 2020. I have no idea how the space industry will react to some of these developments:
-Axiom and Bigelow space stations and/or large commercial modules on the ISS.
-Regular manned commercial space transport, particularly flights to said commercial modules/stations
-Large LEO constellations
-Availability of relatively cheap commercial delivery of small payloads to lunar surface.
-Vulcan (forward path partial reuse, starting with 2nd stage in orbit, backwards from SpaceX, but not ready yet)
-New Glenn (1st stage reuse and price competitive with Falcon Heavy, with greater capability.)
-BFR development far enough along with visible testing by 2020 that anyone not blind will start reacting to it.
-probable first BFR orbital launch around 2022.

Most likely not everything I said will come to fruition, for example there is a good chance that only one of Axiom or Bigelow will get their station started (but I see it as more likely both than neither). Enough of these will either happen by 2020 or clearly be going to happen at that point, that I cannot predict what additional things will be in work by 2022 in reaction to these.

[Endeavour_01]

So what will be happening in human spaceflight in 2022, five years from now?

Commercial Crew vehicles will be conducting regular crew rotation flights to the ISS.

SpaceX (and possibly Boeing) will fly one tourist flight to LEO (or perhaps around the moon) a year.

ISS extended to at least 2026. Likely 2028.

Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic will be flying regular sub-orbital tourism flights.

SLS/Orion will be gearing up for the EM-2 flight. DSG and a reusable manned lunar lander are under development.

SpaceX will have made good progress on BFR but are years away from a first flight.

[philw1776]

 Human spaceflight in 2022, five years from now

FH will have flown !!!!  Trust me this time
Commercial Crew a success
Branson's SS2 will have carried passengers on sub-orbital jaunts
BO will be the primary supplier of sub orbital jaunts
BO will have introduced New Glen into service
SpaceX will still be preparing to launch people to Mars, just like now in 2017
SpaceX will have done several short test hops with its latest BFS architecture which will have been revised again & again
ESA will still be talking about a base on the moon
ISS will still be up there, still doing zero gravity research
There will be at least one small commercial space station in LEO
SLS/Orion still live, the undead
DSG boondoggle will still be years away from arriving on orbit
VASIMR still being talked about excitedly
JWST functioning

[jebbo]

Okay, so spaceflight at the end of 2022:

100 – 120 worldwide orbital launches per year. A linear projection from 2001-2017 gives ~103, but it feels like launch rate is about to increase at a faster rate.
ULA. The Vulcan launcher will be just entering service.  ACES will be almost ready.
Blue Origin. New Shepard will be providing suborbital flights; New Glenn will have just entered commercial service.
SpaceX. F9 and FH both in service. BFR hasn’t launched to Mars, but they have done at least one launch to orbit.
SNC. The Dream Chaser cargo version has launched at least once.
Boeing. Starliner is finally operational.
ISS. The ISS will have been extended again and crew replacement will be primarily by commercial crew.
Bigelow and Axiom. At least one (probably Bigelow) will have a commercial station in orbit.
SLS. Will still be plodding along.
ESA and Ariane.  Ariane 5 and Vega continue to be their workhorses, but the first Ariane 6 is entering service. Following the success of SpaceX and, more recently, Blue Origin, the ESA roadmap has flipped to reusable first stages.
China.  Will have started construction of their modular space station and will have succeeded in a lunar sample return mission.
Others.  Planetary Resources will just have launched their prospecting mission (after a 2 year slip).
Moon. Plans will be well underway for a landing. There will have been at least one Apollo 8 style manned flyby.
Mars. SpaceX will have announced their planned landing site.
Orbital debris will be an issue, and a serious programme of mitigation will have started.

--- Tony

[Phillip Clark]

China should have *completed* the assembly of the Tiangong Complex (the modular space station).

China will have landed its first spacecraft on Mars with its small rover operating on the surface.

China will have finalised the design of the CZ-9 and the programme should be heading towards a maiden floight around 2028.

NASA is wondering what to do with SLS and Orion - if they have not been cancelled by 2022.

[francesco nicoli]

1. SpaceX will be 4 years far from flying BFR
2. Bigelow will have an experimental module BA330 recently linked to the ISS. Commercial human transportation to the ISS will be occasional, rare, and expensive.
3. total human population in space will be between 10 and 15.
4. Russia space programme will be almost disappeared.
5. European space programme will be still anchored to Ariane 6, deeply inefficient, and dominated by public-owned corporations.
6. Reaction Engines will be in the process of testing a sub-orbital Skylon, in the US.
7.  the ISS itself will have been extended.
8 work will be ongoing for a Deep Space Station in Moon orbit. This will give a job to SLS.
9 . launch costs will be approximately half than today, but not super low yet.

[TaurusLittrow]

ISS still flying with commercial modules attached
EM-1 has flown but still waiting for EM-2 (delays in PPE development)
"Europa Clipper" lives on thanks to Congressional support for SLS
Commercial crew a success with SNC tagged as a future participant
SpaceX holds >40% of the commercial launch market with most flights using "flight-proven" hardware
BO threatening SpaceX dominance in commercial market with NG
SpaceX has flown 1 or 2 circumlunar tourist missions
BFR/BFS yet to reach space, but Raptor development has matured and subscale "grasshopper" tests underway
ESA, JAXA, and Roscosmos sign onto DSG concept
ESA still talking about a moon base
ESA finally lands successfully on Mars
China constructing a modular space station
China building sample return lunar spacecraft

[Darkseraph]

Spaceflight in 2022:

Commercial
Dragon 2 and Starliner are both performing routine missions to ISS
ISS will now feature a large commercial lab.
There will be no free flying private stations yet.
Boeing and SpaceX will have flown a small number of orbital tourists.
LunarCOTS will be under development.
Lochkheed Martin will propose a version of Jupiter-Exoliner for LunarCOTS.
Blue Origin will have flown 30 times to orbit and will begin testing a reusable upper stage for New Glenn.
New Shepard will have flown 100 times.
Virgin Orbit will have flown approximately 80 missions.
Stratolaunch will partner with Virgin Orbit/Virgin Galactic on 'LauncherTwo' . Soyuz like payload capabilities.
Reaction engines will pivot towards creating a hypersonic bomber for the USA and UK military.
Rocketlab will be conducting around 18 launches per year.
Firefly will have become operational and recieved a new NASA contract.
Masten will partner with a big contractor to bid on LunarCOTS
Orbital servicing of commsats will be normal.
OrbitalATK and SSL will propose adapting their orbital servicing technology for ISS and DSG.
BFR will not have made it to orbit yet.
OrbtialATK NGLV is cancelled.
Vulcan is operational.

China
China will have assembled a large station that has hosted international astronauts and experiments.
A Lunar South Pole Sample Return mission will be successfully completed.
Long March 9 will be far along in development, now featuring RD180 engines.
China will have landed on Mars once with a follow up mission being prepared.
Orbital servicing by Taikonauts at Chinese Space Station will have been demonstrated.

NASA
SLS will have flown 3 missions.
SLS program will get a small budget increase to enable more frequent missions.
The first component of the DSG will be in orbit around Moon.
NASA will create LunarCOTS program for delivery of cargo to both the DSG and Lunar Surface.
ISS will be further extended to 2030 and upgraded. VASIMR module will be added.
Hubble will be serviced again.
Human Lunar lander based on Orion will be under development.
Planet 9 flyby mission is on the drawing board utilizing NEP.
Planet 10 is discovered in a highly eliptical orbit with a mass similar to Mars and a composition similar to Titan.

Europe
Ariane 6 operational but heavily dependent on ESA missions.
ESA develops a cargo vehicle for DSG and a small lunar lander.
Prometheus gets a funding boost.
ESA has a scaled demo platform for landing boosters.
Europe sets up a commercial space program that provides small amounts of funding to European startups.
Vega will have a much larger flight rate than 2017. Constellations will benefit it.

Russia
Soyuz and Proton are still flying regularly.
Federatsiya flies once without crew.
Angara is restricted to civil and military missions, flying infrequently.
Russia provides a module to DSG.
A cosmonaut flies on Chinese Space Station.
Russia's answer to New Glenn is on the drawing board. Uses multiple RD180 engines, lands down range from Baikonur.

Iran
Iran sends a military test pilot to space on a suborbital mission.
Iran now have a launch vehicle capable of sending 1 ton to LEO.
A Soyuz-Class booster will be on the drawing board with first flight planned in 2030s.

North Korea
North Korea will heavily proliferate missile technology in the next 5 years, desperate for money.
The North will conduct increasingly successful missions with small rudimentary satellites to add credbility to its detterent.

South Korea
South Korea will have conducted several flights of KSLV2.
KARI will join the ISS partnership.
KSLV3 will be in development as a EELV-class reusable system.
South Korea will have landed on the Moon.

Turkey
Turkey will be developing a small indigenous launch vehicle for its military.

Canada
Atlantic Canada will have a minor spaceport for small commercial launch vehicles.
Canadarm3 will be developed for DSG.

India
India will not have flown a human mission yet but will be deep into development of that capability.
India will fly 12 missions a year by 2022.
Chandrayanne 3 mission will be far along in construction, sending a rover to the Lunar South Pole.

Japan
SLIM mission will have been successful.
H3 is operational and a cargo lander is in design as part of Japans contribution to DSG.
H4 is on the drawing board. It will be a fully Hydrolox TSTO RLV.
Japan revives plans for indigenous human spaceflight capability.

Brazil
Brazil will have performed a successful suborbital demo of a small ELV.

[Proponent]

So what will be happening in human spaceflight in 2022, five years from now?

Commercial Crew vehicles will be conducting regular crew rotation flights to the ISS.

<snip>

ISS extended to at least 2026. Likely 2028.

<snip>

SLS/Orion will be gearing up for the EM-2 flight. DSG and a reusable manned lunar lander are under development.

Since i have yet to work up the courage to make a prediction of my own, I certainly am certainly in no position to criticize others' predictions.  But may I respectfully ask how one envisions NASA having the funds to simultaneously operating ISS, flying SLS/Orion and developing a lunar lander?  Can I reasonably conclude that you predict a significant budget boost?

[Endeavour_01]

But may I respectfully ask how one envisions NASA having the funds to simultaneously operating ISS, flying SLS/Orion and developing a lunar lander?  Can I reasonably conclude that you predict a significant budget boost?

The current administration is anything but predictable so a significant budget boost could certainly be in the cards IMHO. That said, a significant budget boost is not necessary for my predictions to come true.

Couple of clarifications:

1. I am assuming NASA's budget rises with inflation.

2. It depends on what you consider the phrase "under development" to mean. To me, it means that the program has been announced and is receiving some kind of funding. For example CCP received only ~50 million dollars during its first year of existence. To me that counts as "under development."

In other words I don't anticipate a large amount of funding for a manned reusable lunar lander by 2022. Just enough to get the program started. On the other hand if the current administration is serious about getting boots on the ground before the end of 2024 more funding could be forthcoming.

3. The aforementioned lunar lander could come from anywhere (NASA, commercial, international partners, or some combination of such). NASA may not have to pay the full cost of development.

[A_M_Swallow]

Predictions for 2022. This is 5 years in the future.

1. At least two of the following companies will have landed ~100kg payloads on the lunar surface Astrobotic Technologies, Moon Express and Masten Space Systems.

2. NASA will have issued a formal Request For Information (RFI) or paid for a study for a reusable cabin for a manned lunar lander. The cabin and astronauts to be transported between a lunar spacestation and the surface and returned by the XEUS ACES lander. All up mass of the cabin including cargo and consumables to be less than 25 tonnes.

3. A variant of the Bigelow B330 has been attached to the ISS.

4. A manned lunar rover with life support will be in development.

5. The Propulsion and Power Module for the Deep Space Gateway (under its latest name) will be under going testing.

[yokem55]

I'll bite.
In 2022 BFR is about where Falcon was in 2012. It's had successful flights but had issues and somewhat underperforming. There will have been at least 1 Carbon Fiber tankage related failure during the initial booster-less test of the ship. The heat shield will need a redesign for better reusability. Raptor has been a rock solid engine.

Falcon 9 is flying 25-30 times per year, with Heavy flying once or twice per year.

ULA will have Vulcan getting to it's first launch in late 2020 with somewhat underperforming BE-4 engines but with a somewhat over performing BE-3 based upper stage. By 2022 they are flying it ~6 times per year. SMART reuse is scrapped after a recovery failure due to the shear distance out at sea.

Blue Origin has had 2 successful flights of New Glen, but with both first stages lost after staging, one on landing, one during reentry. BE-4 took much longer to complete qualification then expected.

AR has purchased one of the successful small sat launch companies and is working on an in-house house LV targeting the 10-ton to GTO market with an AR-1 first stage and an oversized J2-X second stage.

SLS will have launched once. An early core shutdown prevented the full execution of the circumlunar mission, but Orion is still able to reach EML1 and able to perform a mostly nominal mission there. The new President uses the partial failure as an excuse to cancel the program 2 months before EM-2.

ISS will have had at least one serious, life threatening scare, but still has plans to be extended to 2028 with new modules and power facilities coming up from private organizations. Commercial cargo and crew continue to be highly success.

Ariane 6 is flying but competition from SpaceX, ULA and Blue origin is keeping them from flying many commercial payloads.

... That's all I can come up with right at moment.

[Athrithalix]

Given the propensity for making predictions on this website, maybe they could be tracked properly, it would be interesting to check back and have an easy way to see who was getting what right. Prediction Book is pretty good, not only can you track your predictions, you can list confidence, and see if your 70% confident predictions are true 70% of the time or not.
https://predictionbook.com/

[high road]

- SpaceX will still be developing BFR, which will be 'next year' for a few more years.
- The number of F9 launches will start to creep up, after having remained stable a few years in a row due to the remaining market not going for cheaper launches, and new applications taking time to develop.
- ESA will be planning/talking about a moon base, much like they do in 2017, still years away from materializing.
- ISS or something that was once part of the ISS, will still be up there, working its way through a privatization process, that proves far more difficult than handing over the proverbial keys.
- NASA will still be planning for missions using SLS by order of congress, although few if any of these are actually funded by congress.
- Serious debate will be going on whether NASA should actually run the DSG, or should just transfer the entire thing to commercial partners and just purchase their services. Depending on how far this discussion has shifted towards commercial, the DSG has not even launched yet.
- Moon express has worked out any remaining issues and proved it can launch to the moon. Missions are rare and far between, and are indirectly sponsored by NASA.
- Missions to the moon are on NASA's books, but requiring dedicated vehicles that need to be designed by NASA and require SLS to launch, so few if any have materialized.
- New Glenn has had a number of test flights, but is not yet doing regular commercial operations.
- Suborbital tourist flight launches have stabilized, drawing a steady stream of customers each year, but not bringing in much money for space exploration in general. Other than indirectly through greater enthusiasm for space, which is hard to measure.
- A telescope specifically designed to detect oxygen in the atmosphere of exoplanets will be under construction. Data from JWST will be used to finetune this new telescope.

[Eric Hedman]

A new launch date for SLS EM-1 will be announced for NET Q4 2025.

[savuporo]

- Smallsats transform the space technology
- Kessler syndrome is real

[freddo411]

2022

* Since starting in 2018, Starlink began, slowly at first, providing ubiquitous internet connectivity.  E. Musk is worth an estimated 50 billion dollars as the communication mogul of the 21 century.  Telsa has been sold to Toyota.   SpaceX remains a private company.   Starlink is publically traded

* SpaceX has been flying Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets at a slowly increasing cadence needed to service its comsat constellation and its other nascent businesses.   In 2022, there are 4 to 5 flights a week. 

* Blue Origin is flying once a week.   In additional to commercial competing with SpaceX, then have a large contract with the US gov't to be the alternative provider for launch services.

* Commercial space travel is a 1 billion dollar a year business.   Approx 500 million dollars  a year total is spent by countries like Australia, the UK, Sweden, Malaysia, Korea, Brazil and UAE to host their astronauts on World Trade Station in LEO for two or four week stints.   Several business are shuttling raw materials and employees up, and manufactured goods down from the WTS.   Several big budget films have been shot in LEO, but the biggest surprize is the greater than 500 million dollars spent by people to visit the station for tourism.

* ISS is in it's final years.   No one can be found (or the gov't can't agree on) a way to keep it going.   

* There is no Moon base.  There is a lot of talk about  a moon base; perhaps the next administration will fund a return to the moon.

* The replacement JWST is scheduled to be launched in two years to replace the first telescope lost when it did not deploy correctly.

* The US air force funds a large constellation of small sats to provide persistent surveillance data.   This represents something like 50% of revenue for BO, and 20% of the revenue for SpaceX

* BFR has made a number of sub orbital and orbital flights.   Turn around time has been hampered by a number of operational issues.   Work continues to optimize the BFR.   Boca Chica hosts an off shore launch platform.   EM. has announced that he has completed work on BFR, and is scaling up to the BMFR and putting the entire company into the new design.

[meberbs]

My predictions for 2022 are thus:

Your post is obviously sarcastic and some of the points are clearly you promoting your anti-science beliefs.

1) The Oort Cloud grows and blots out large swaths of the universe from being viewed at Earth.

2) Invisible asteroids permeate thru our solar system supplying not only the material essence of liquid water upon every object in our solar system, but also the vital nutrients of mitochondrial DNA, photosythentic precursors as well as the occasional seeds of extraterrestrial bacteria.

You should do some research on the evidence for the existence of the Oort Cloud and the evolution of the solar system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oort_cloud
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formation_and_evolution_of_the_Solar_System
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_water_on_Earth

3) The climate on Mars continues to generate ample sustainable resources for human life, livestock and agriculture.  The lakes at the top of Olympus Mons begin to teem with life, so abundant, that a mission to begin terraforming is funded by all nations on Earth.

Terraforming Mars is a very long term possibility, and no sarcastic comment changes that it could be done (though not in the near term) or that there are resources on Mars that can be used without first terraforming the whole planet.

9) Colleges and universities discover that a large majority of enrolling students are seeking a formal education in order pursue a career in space.  Bachelors level as well as advanced degrees for deep space exploration, astronautics and flight testing are offered throughout all the Ivy League as well as other major conferences (SEC, Big 10, Pac 10 and many others).

It is actually documented that increases in STEM degrees were tied to inspiration from the Apollo program, and with some of the advances happening in space, over the next 5 year this could start happening again. (there are obvious time delay factors involved)

[Lar]

All the cool kids are doing it... My predictions for (the end of) 2022

SpaceX:
- 100+ F9 and FH launches a year, with over 50% of the total world wide commercial market
- Launch cadence very predictable, backlog mostly worked through, most launches within 2 weeks of originally projected schedule
- No Raptor upper stage
- Pricing switched around, first launch now cheaper, flight proven block 5 more expensive
- There will be 3 ASDS on the east coast, not because of FH but just to keep cadence going
- Starlink very actively being deployed to hit the deadlines, and using a good chunk of the total launch cadence
- Commercial Crew hitting stride, cargo bubbling along nicely, with a mix of D1 and D2
- The D2 hull production line is shut down, lots of D1 and D2 hulls in stock and refurbishment working out
- F9/FH production line still up and running, producing S2:S1 at 10:1
- SpaceX chooses to submit only BFR to the Airforce launch capability programme and gets funding.
- BFR (9m version) will have had several suborbital and orbital test flights.
- Ed Kyle still won't believe their numbers
- Two tourist flights around the moon so far, more on manifest
- Jim still will think success is mostly due to young people working crazy hours
- No Raptor upper stage (did I repeat myself?)

Virgin
- After another major upset, Branson will exit, sell assets to whoever will take them

Blue
- Flying some suborbital flights for tourists with New Shepard but not high frequency
- New Glenn in test phase but no more than 1/2 dozen paid launches so far
- QuantumG will still be throwing shade on their speed (er, lack thereof)
- We still won't know exactly what is in New Armstrong
- Bezos will have invested at least 8B by now as he continues to sell 1B a year of Amazon stock.

OrbitalATKNorthrupGrumman
- Still delivering cargo with Cygnus. Now on Antares again, no more Atlas
- Next Gen Rocket not selected by Airforce for development, still a paper rocket
- Still launching from MARS
- L1011 still flying and launching Pegasi

ULA
- Delta Heavy "almost" retired... any year now.
- Atlas still flying but ULA rationing engines
- ULA selects BE4, Aerojet lobbies to force them to choose theirs but fails
- Vulcan in early test, using dual engine Centaur.
- ACES with IVF still in the future... always "next year"
- Jongoff keeps hinting about future awesome stuff...  but can't tell us about it.
- SMART reuse abandoned as not that smart
- LazyB and LockMart refuse to give ULA any extra capital, or freedom to innovate, milk it for revenue.
- ULA stops advertising their schedule as a feature after studies show their current predictability is no better than SpaceX

Sierra Nevada
- DreamChaser cargo flying
- SN uses F9 for a launch to validate it's doable but mostly sticks to Atlas
- Crew DreamChaser still in the future

SLS
- Alabama (sorry, need to stop here for a second and just say that I have to use stupid words to get my point across. I know that means I must have a weak argument, but that's why I use bad words). has too much clout, so it doesn't get killed, again. And again. And again.
- Still no missions to speak of.
- Europa Clipper slips to 2024
- Projected frequency 1 per 2 years.
- Launched once so far, EM2 slipped due to tower construction taking too long. Talk of using ICPS on EM2

Ariane
- Ariane 5 still flying but mostly government missions. Few commercial customers willing to dual manifest or pay price
- Ariane 6 in development
- Ariane 7 being mooted (fully reusable)
- Another strike at Kourou will have taken it out of service for at least 3 months by now

Satellites
- almost all Geo birds are all electric
- So many cubesats no one can count them all except NORAD
- PRI and DSI both will have launched probes but not yet actually mined anything.

ISS
- Now extended to 2028.
- Russians still threatening to leave
- Russian module no closer to launching, new leaks found
- Bigelow BEAM still there, much to everyone's surprise. Used for storage
- Bigelow still shopping a new module to be added to ISS, but NASA not interested.
- NanoRacks sponsors a commercial astronaut to tend fiber production (for others) and launch/babysit cubesats and generally be a dogsbody for the rest of the crew.
- At least one Cygnus retained on station instead of deorbited, used for automated experiments that need to be sealed off
- Still a crunch with docking/berthing/airlocks/expansion
 
Space Science
- INSight slipped to 2024
- JWST launched, but almost out of helium already after not seeing anything much
- Hubble still functioning but limping, SpaceX proposed service mission, not taken yet
- 2020 sample gathering mission slipped to 2026
- All the rovers are still working but the wheels showing serious wear