Author Topic: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight? (Read 13102 times)

jongoff · « **on:** 09/14/2023 01:55 am »

Ok, new poll. At this point the FAA has approved the mishap report for the previous Starship launch, and the Ship 25/Booster 9 combo is on the pad, with the vehicle and pad appearing to be technically ready to launch. So, when do you think they'll clear the launch tower? Do you think that we're right around the corner, and it'll fly sometime next week? Do you think that environmental permits are going to delay things into next year? Feel free to share your thoughts after voting.

I'm leaving the voting open for only three days (so it should close around 8pm MST on Saturday 9/16), but I am allowing people to change their votes while the poll is still open. I tried to have things pretty granular over the next few weeks, switching to gradually less and less granular buckets over time. And I included a pessimistic "Never" option in case you think something will happen that precludes this Super Heavy/Starship pair from ever flying.

Did I cover all the bases reasonably well?

~Jon

jongoff · « **Reply #1 on:** 09/14/2023 02:13 am »

I guessed the last full week of October (10/23-10/29). My logic being that I just saw on Twitter that the FAA was saying it would take until October to finish their evaluation of SpaceX's accomplishing all the required changes from the mishap report. Add in delays for inevitable last minute technical issues, etc. I think late October is relatively safe. That said, I'm also assuming they don't run into any big environmental-related delays. I don't totally discount those, and if I had to create a probability distribution for their launch date, it would have a long tail stretching into late Q2 2024. But I'm willing to vote late October as the most likely IMO.

~Jon

redneck · « **Reply #2 on:** 09/14/2023 08:45 am »

I went with end of September/early October. Compelling logic is that my birthday falls in that week. In reality, I can't tell how it will shake out. It seems somewhat more complex than when you were on the Lunar Lander Challenge with Masten.

meadows.st · « **Reply #3 on:** 09/14/2023 11:28 am »

I chose second full week of October based on very little other than the "optimistic October" comment and my wishful thinking / fervent hope that SpaceX can pull another rabbit out of the proverbial hat. I'm sure many/all space fans are with me in wanting to see a 3rd launch in 2023 and if this 2nd launch doesn't go in mid Oct, the chances of a third launch before Dec 31st become vanishing small IMHO

Jeff Lerner · « **Reply #4 on:** 09/14/2023 11:51 am »

I chose end of October…lots of bureaucratic opportunities still to slow things down…

My sense is that SpaceX has the capability and desire to go much faster but is being held back by current FAA process and possible environmental group challenges.

Makes me wonder if a moon landing would have ever taken place given today’s government regulations and protocols existing back then. I mean in the 60’s rockets were blowing up all the time …problems were analyzed, resolved and the next attempt came very quickly.

SpaceX’s iterative development approach means failure is an option…that’s how they learn..and quickly….but if each failure is going to take government reviews and approvals, success is going to come very slowly…

My $0.02…

jongoff · « **Reply #5 on:** 09/14/2023 02:39 pm »

Quote from: Jeff Lerner on 09/14/2023 11:51 am

I chose end of October…lots of bureaucratic opportunities still to slow things down…

My sense is that SpaceX has the capability and desire to go much faster but is being held back by current FAA process and possible environmental group challenges.

Makes me wonder if a moon landing would have ever taken place given today’s government regulations and protocols existing back then. I mean in the 60’s rockets were blowing up all the time …problems were analyzed, resolved and the next attempt came very quickly.

SpaceX’s iterative development approach means failure is an option…that’s how they learn..and quickly….but if each failure is going to take government reviews and approvals, success is going to come very slowly…

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how long this takes. Assuming they don't have any major go-backs, like some sort of environmental remediation requirement (wastewater discharge permits?), it could be pretty fast. Your iteration strategy has to take into account some level of regulatory compliance or you're not being realistic.

~Jon

Robotbeat · « **Reply #6 on:** 09/14/2023 07:12 pm »

I voted later in October, but I think the voting is too clumpy.

There’s not a zero chance that it won’t fly before December or January or later.

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #7 on:** 09/14/2023 07:26 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/14/2023 07:12 pm

I voted later in October, but I think the voting is too clumpy.

There’s not a zero chance that it won’t fly before December or January or later.

This form of polling cannot be used to create a probability curve, because each responder needs to pick a single point. For example, you feel that the actual probability has tails, but your response did not add anything to the tails. This is not a bug, it's just the way this kind of poll works.

tyrred · « **Reply #8 on:** 09/14/2023 09:10 pm »

Hopelessly optimistic for launch on 9/25

Maybe, just maybe all these guys can get their sh¡T together and make it happen

Vahe231991 · « **Reply #9 on:** 09/14/2023 10:21 pm »

Given recent statements from the FAA, I expect this launch to take place next month.

Orbiter · « **Reply #10 on:** 09/15/2023 01:47 pm »

9/28/23 would be an interesting date for SpaceX to launch.

jongoff · « **Reply #11 on:** 09/15/2023 09:11 pm »

New data that might impact your guesses:

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1702789621447295037

deltaV · « **Reply #12 on:** 09/15/2023 09:56 pm »

I voted "Week of 10/16-10/22" but it sounds like environmental reviews could add months to that.

dglow · « **Reply #13 on:** 09/16/2023 12:50 am »

Quote from: jongoff on 09/15/2023 09:11 pm

New data that might impact your guesses:

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1702789621447295037

Wow, there it is — the very real possibility for that storm of concrete, rebar, and dust to bite their schedule in the butt. Good luck navigating this one, SpaceX.

chopsticks · « **Reply #14 on:** 09/16/2023 04:57 am »

I believe the way it works is that the Fish and Wildlife Service have to sign off before the FAA is allowed to issue a launch license. I believe that the FAA coordinates and consults with the other appropriate regulatory agencies as required. Someone correct me if I have this wrong. But I don't believe that the FAA themselves control every aspect of the investigation(s), they are basically in charge of it and coordinate as necessary.

The FWS makes sense in this case since the last launch rained huge concrete chunks all over the wetlands into the habitat of protected species. Not ideal, so I'm guessing that there's a lot of work and assessment being done right now to ensure that that doesn't happen for flight two.

chopsticks · « **Reply #15 on:** 09/16/2023 05:00 am »

Quote from: dglow on 09/16/2023 12:50 am

Quote from: jongoff on 09/15/2023 09:11 pm
New data that might impact your guesses:

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1702789621447295037

Wow, there it is — the very real possibility for that storm of concrete, rebar, and dust to bite their schedule in the butt. Good luck navigating this one, SpaceX.

Hmm, it may or may not have been advantageous for them to install the deluge system before the first flight if this ends up holding them back significantly.

Actions have consequences..

sdsds · « **Reply #16 on:** 11/01/2023 08:23 pm »

Bump to confirm: tea leaves suggest launch NET November 6, 2023, between 5:25 a.m. and 11:15 a.m., right? Eyeballing it, that roughly correlates to 86% of poll responses being over-optimistic....

For context, I remain optimistic that a Starship will depart on a trajectory towards Mars in the 2024 launch window! ;-)

Kspbutitscursed · « **Reply #17 on:** 11/05/2023 07:36 pm »

Quote from: sdsds on 11/01/2023 08:23 pm

Bump to confirm: tea leaves suggest launch NET November 6, 2023, between 5:25 a.m. and 11:15 a.m., right? Eyeballing it, that roughly correlates to 86% of poll responses being over-optimistic....

For context, I remain optimistic that a Starship will depart on a trajectory towards Mars in the 2024 launch window! ;-)

looking more like november 13 now

sdsds · « **Reply #18 on:** 11/14/2023 10:02 pm »

With launch now NET Nov 17, it looks like 3 out of the 108 respondents to this poll will likely be the winners, assuming the flight occurs before Dec 1. Congratulations in advance to those prognosticators (shamefully admitting I was slightly over-optimistic).

deltaV · « **Reply #19 on:** 01/14/2024 10:43 pm »

It launched Nov 18 so "Second half of November (11/16 - 11/30)" won this poll. Most voters were too optimistic.

Poll

When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight?

Author Topic: When Will Booster 9 and Ship 25 Take Flight? (Read 13102 times)