Author Topic: Can Blue leapfrog SpaceX to full reusability? Second Threat (Read 28326 times)

Tywin · « **on:** 04/15/2023 08:28 am »

I open this new thread with the same question that was asked here, I think that now that the Jarvis-Clipper project is known, it is time to start this debate again....

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40353.0

Purona · « **Reply #1 on:** 04/15/2023 10:22 am »

I doubt it. The only thing I see Blue Origin leapfrogging SpaceX in is a larger fully reusable launch vehicle compared to Starship.

M.E.T. · « **Reply #2 on:** 04/15/2023 10:26 am »

Replace SpaceX with Relativity in the opening question and you might have a worthwhile thread.

seb21051 · « **Reply #3 on:** 04/15/2023 04:59 pm »

In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?

meekGee · « **Reply #4 on:** 04/15/2023 05:13 pm »

Quote from: seb21051 on 04/15/2023 04:59 pm

In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?

Oooh ooooh I know that one!
Virgin Galactic!

Where do I collect my prize?

punder · « **Reply #5 on:** 04/15/2023 05:40 pm »

Quote from: seb21051 on 04/15/2023 04:59 pm

In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?

Blue did beat SpaceX to booster recovery/reusability, and won the 2016 Collier Trophy for it. Even though the two boosters are hardly comparable.

Amazingly, SpaceX has never won a Collier Trophy. 😤 They might win for Starship, or perhaps for a successful Artemis 3 mission.

Tywin · « **Reply #6 on:** 04/15/2023 05:43 pm »

Quote from: seb21051 on 04/15/2023 04:59 pm

In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?

In investments and technology, it is wrong to live looking in the rearview mirror...

meekGee · « **Reply #7 on:** 04/15/2023 10:40 pm »

Quote from: punder on 04/15/2023 05:40 pm

Quote from: seb21051 on 04/15/2023 04:59 pm
In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?
Blue did beat SpaceX to booster recovery/reusability, and won the 2016 Collier Trophy for it. Even though the two boosters are hardly comparable.

Amazingly, SpaceX has never won a Collier Trophy. They might win for Starship, or perhaps for a successful Artemis 3 mission.

Right, that "welcome to the club" moment

Except their "booster" is not an orbital booster, so they "won" their own irrelevant category.

And trophies, I believe JB himself won some spaceman of the year award at least once.

Probably Richard Branson too.

You know.

It says something about trophies.

trimeta · « **Reply #8 on:** 04/15/2023 11:34 pm »

I'll remind readers here that in another thread, Tywin said:

Quote from: Tywin on 04/15/2023 08:04 am

My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...

Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....

Just to provide a baseline for Tywin's estimations of SpaceX and Blue Origin's respective capabilities to build orbital launch vehicles.

Tywin · « **Reply #9 on:** 04/15/2023 11:49 pm »

Will see...

trimeta · « **Reply #10 on:** 04/16/2023 12:01 am »

Quote from: Tywin on 04/15/2023 11:49 pm

Will see...

If you believe that Blue Origin is more hardware-rich and nimble than SpaceX, because "it is wrong to live looking in the rearview mirror" (e.g., "one shouldn't use facts or evidence when forming an opinion")...well, I'd say this would lower my opinion of you, but honestly that's not possible.

spacenut · « **Reply #11 on:** 04/16/2023 12:53 am »

I haven't seen Blue sending anything into orbit YET. SpaceX has been doing it for 12 years or more. Much less recover a booster, or a second stage which is harder.

Blue has built nice buildings and a few rocket engines. SpaceX has built over 200 Raptors already. Blue just sent two BE-4's to ULA. I believe Aerojet could have beaten Blue with AR-1's by now if they had to contract.

Coastal Ron · « **Reply #12 on:** 04/16/2023 12:57 am »

Quote from: Tywin on 04/15/2023 05:43 pm

Quote from: seb21051 on 04/15/2023 04:59 pm
In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?
In investments and technology, it is wrong to live looking in the rearview mirror...

Scheduling professional here. I've done new product introduction, and been a factory scheduling manager. So I have a pretty good ability to understand "momentum", and Blue Origin hasn't exhibited much of it.

SpaceX has lots of "momentum" with both Falcon 9/H and Starship, lots of skilled personnel that know how to create momentum, and a whole company that knows how to support momentum. We haven't seen such capabilities with Blue Origin yet.

As for the thread topic, SpaceX is getting ready for a major test of their fully reusable launch system, but does Blue Origin even have an interest in developing a fully reusable launch system? Because all we officially know about is New Glenn, which is only partially reusable.

So with all that we KNOW, why would ANYONE think that Blue Origin has a chance to leapfrog SpaceX on full reusability?

Maybe we could revisit this topic again AFTER Blue Origin launches New Glenn, and AFTER they announce that they are planning to build a fully reusable launcher, but until then...

punder · « **Reply #13 on:** 04/16/2023 01:08 am »

Quote from: meekGee on 04/15/2023 10:40 pm

Quote from: punder on 04/15/2023 05:40 pm
Quote from: seb21051 on 04/15/2023 04:59 pm
In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?
Blue did beat SpaceX to booster recovery/reusability, and won the 2016 Collier Trophy for it. Even though the two boosters are hardly comparable.

Amazingly, SpaceX has never won a Collier Trophy. They might win for Starship, or perhaps for a successful Artemis 3 mission.
Right, that "welcome to the club" moment
Except their "booster" is not an orbital booster, so they "won" their own irrelevant category.

And trophies, I believe JB himself won some spaceman of the year award at least once.

Probably Richard Branson too.

You know.

It says something about trophies.

Yes. SpaceX remains the outsider while simultaneously being the unacknowledged industry powerhouse *and* the unacknowledged critical means to the insiders’ needs, such as ISS crew rotation and, um, a little thing called landing people on the Moon.

Lucky for us Elon doesn’t care what anyone thinks of him. He tweets a little shade and goes about his business.

The one exception I’m aware of, being the Apollo astronauts who didn’t get it (but possibly did later on). He certainly cared about their opinions.

As to the idea of BO besting SpaceX, or even the automatic media idiocy of putting SpaceX and BO in the same sentence… it is to laugh. Good luck, Mr. Bezosky.

meekGee · « **Reply #14 on:** 04/16/2023 01:11 am »

Before reusability, they need to do usability.
Before usability, they need ability.
Before ability, they need ility.

Oops one too many. Undo.

Greg Hullender · « **Reply #15 on:** 04/16/2023 01:15 am »

Shouldn't it be "Second Thread?" :-) I'd hate for anyone to get the wrong idea as to how competitive these companies are!

--Greg

Tywin · « **Reply #16 on:** 04/16/2023 01:57 am »

Quote from: trimeta on 04/16/2023 12:01 am

Quote from: Tywin on 04/15/2023 11:49 pm
Will see...
If you believe that Blue Origin is more hardware-rich and nimble than SpaceX, because "it is wrong to live looking in the rearview mirror" (e.g., "one shouldn't use facts or evidence when forming an opinion")...well, I'd say this would lower my opinion of you, but honestly that's not possible.

I don't care what level of opinion you have about me, and if ULA fans were splitting hairs and saying SpaceX would never surpass them in reliability and launches and look at now....

Some like me think it's about to be the same thing with Blue vs SpaceX....

Tywin · « **Reply #17 on:** 04/16/2023 01:59 am »

Quote from: spacenut on 04/16/2023 12:53 am

I haven't seen Blue sending anything into orbit YET. SpaceX has been doing it for 12 years or more. Much less recover a booster, or a second stage which is harder.

Blue has built nice buildings and a few rocket engines. SpaceX has built over 200 Raptors already. Blue just sent two BE-4's to ULA. I believe Aerojet could have beaten Blue with AR-1's by now if they had to contract.

Maybe and just maybe those two BE-4s are more ready to go to orbit than the 200 Raptors...this coming week we'll see....

Tywin · « **Reply #18 on:** 04/16/2023 02:03 am »

Quote from: Coastal Ron on 04/16/2023 12:57 am

Quote from: Tywin on 04/15/2023 05:43 pm
Quote from: seb21051 on 04/15/2023 04:59 pm
In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?
In investments and technology, it is wrong to live looking in the rearview mirror...

Scheduling professional here. I've done new product introduction, and been a factory scheduling manager. So I have a pretty good ability to understand "momentum", and Blue Origin hasn't exhibited much of it.

SpaceX has lots of "momentum" with both Falcon 9/H and Starship, lots of skilled personnel that know how to create momentum, and a whole company that knows how to support momentum. We haven't seen such capabilities with Blue Origin yet.

As for the thread topic, SpaceX is getting ready for a major test of their fully reusable launch system, but does Blue Origin even have an interest in developing a fully reusable launch system? Because all we officially know about is New Glenn, which is only partially reusable.

So with all that we KNOW, why would ANYONE think that Blue Origin has a chance to leapfrog SpaceX on full reusability?

Maybe we could revisit this topic again AFTER Blue Origin launches New Glenn, and AFTER they announce that they are planning to build a fully reusable launcher, but until then...

Jarvis and Clipper exist, if you want to see for yourself....

And by the way your whole experience sounds great to me, but I don't think you've been to Blue's Florida factory, so your opinion is not based on any facts.

Finally, I see a company growing immensely, with over 6000 employees focused primarily on the New Glenn, and with a very clear vision of how things should be done on fully reusable rockets.

Tywin · « **Reply #19 on:** 04/16/2023 02:09 am »

Quote from: punder on 04/16/2023 01:08 am

Quote from: meekGee on 04/15/2023 10:40 pm
Quote from: punder on 04/15/2023 05:40 pm
Quote from: seb21051 on 04/15/2023 04:59 pm
In what way has Blue leapfrogged anyone in its 22 year history?
Blue did beat SpaceX to booster recovery/reusability, and won the 2016 Collier Trophy for it. Even though the two boosters are hardly comparable.

Amazingly, SpaceX has never won a Collier Trophy. They might win for Starship, or perhaps for a successful Artemis 3 mission.
Right, that "welcome to the club" moment
Except their "booster" is not an orbital booster, so they "won" their own irrelevant category.

And trophies, I believe JB himself won some spaceman of the year award at least once.

Probably Richard Branson too.

You know.

It says something about trophies.
Yes. SpaceX remains the outsider while simultaneously being the unacknowledged industry powerhouse *and* the unacknowledged critical means to the insiders’ needs, such as ISS crew rotation and, um, a little thing called landing people on the Moon.

Lucky for us Elon doesn’t care what anyone thinks of him. He tweets a little shade and goes about his business.

The one exception I’m aware of, being the Apollo astronauts who didn’t get it (but possibly did later on). He certainly cared about their opinions.

As to the idea of BO besting SpaceX, or even the automatic media idiocy of putting SpaceX and BO in the same sentence… it is to laugh. Good luck, Mr. Bezosky.

I love the closed minded people who only see impossible things, some of us have known Bezos for many years and know how he deals with them....

One such Amazon, TOP 3 in revenue in the World, created from nothing in its short history, and sector coming in, sector being eaten like a black hole.

Some still think of empty factories and sleeping turtles, but perhaps they are totally wrong.