Author Topic: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?  (Read 66247 times)

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #160 on: 01/31/2023 07:51 pm »
There is a large and active AI security academic community that has been studying this for several decades. I don't think we can summarize this work here in a few sentences.  Here is an excellent overview book from 2019:
   https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Intelligence-Security-Chapman-Robotics/dp/0815369824?fbclid=IwAR1sBo6eLJRhmollCqmDYYd18rEFFCoGvhFn2DB3HgAJ0XQJoZw_QT_gogQ

Apparently, some software engineers from OpenAI have left to create their own company Anthropic AI, and have created their own new rival product called Claude.
Among other things, Claude seems to make use of a new concept called a 'Constitution', which as its name suggests, is a construct meant to explicitly embody a set of moral and ethical rules which govern how the AI operates. It also seems to use some sort of AI-supervised reinforcement feedback.
The general problem is called "AI alignment". It's hard.
     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_alignment

To be fair humans are bad at this as well.


<quote>
AI systems can be challenging to align and misaligned systems can malfunction or cause harm. It can be difficult for AI designers to specify the full range of desired and undesired behaviors. Therefore, they use easy-to-specify proxy goals that omit some desired constraints. However, AI systems exploit the resulting loopholes. As a result, they accomplish their proxy goals efficiently but in unintended, sometimes harmful ways (reward hacking). AI systems can also develop unwanted instrumental behaviors such as seeking power, as this helps them achieve their given goals. Furthermore, they can develop emergent goals that may be hard to detect before the system is deployed, facing new situations and data distributions.
</quote>

Replace "AI" with political parties, churches, corporations or the local elk lodge. Look at everything from the tribal wasteland of American politics to the war in Ukraine.
Oh yes. If our AI learns ethics by assimilating all the world's writings then we can expect it's ethics to be at best as good as the average. This would be similar to the ChatGPT's level as a writer. Humans cannot agree on the "correct" ethics. Why should an AI be any better?

Unfortunately this is NOT irrelevant to the use of AI in space applications. You can try to dismiss the problem that HAL 9000 faced in "2001: A Space Odyssey" as being just science fiction, but the same sort of thing may occur in real life. Space makes the problem harder, because one really major reason to use AI is the communications lag, but the communications lag means the AI must make real-time ethical decisions without the ability to discuss them with humans on Earth.

Offline sanman

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #161 on: 02/01/2023 02:13 am »
To be fair humans are bad at this as well.


<quote>
AI systems can be challenging to align and misaligned systems can malfunction or cause harm. It can be difficult for AI designers to specify the full range of desired and undesired behaviors. Therefore, they use easy-to-specify proxy goals that omit some desired constraints. However, AI systems exploit the resulting loopholes. As a result, they accomplish their proxy goals efficiently but in unintended, sometimes harmful ways (reward hacking). AI systems can also develop unwanted instrumental behaviors such as seeking power, as this helps them achieve their given goals. Furthermore, they can develop emergent goals that may be hard to detect before the system is deployed, facing new situations and data distributions.
</quote>

Replace "AI" with political parties, churches, corporations or the local elk lodge. Look at everything from the tribal wasteland of American politics to the war in Ukraine.
Oh yes. If our AI learns ethics by assimilating all the world's writings then we can expect it's ethics to be at best as good as the average. This would be similar to the ChatGPT's level as a writer. Humans cannot agree on the "correct" ethics. Why should an AI be any better?

Unfortunately this is NOT irrelevant to the use of AI in space applications. You can try to dismiss the problem that HAL 9000 faced in "2001: A Space Odyssey" as being just science fiction, but the same sort of thing may occur in real life. Space makes the problem harder, because one really major reason to use AI is the communications lag, but the communications lag means the AI must make real-time ethical decisions without the ability to discuss them with humans on Earth.

Yes, HAL9000 was likewise exactly the first thing I also thought of when reading ppnl's post.
And in the absence of communicative feedback from humanity, does the remote AI then develop an independent morality?

My analogy would be of the Dog versus the Wolf.
The domesticated Dog grows up in the embrace of Man, and is our servant, companion, even family member.
The Wolf however grows up separately outside of Man's embrace, having evolved as a predator and potential threat.

AI that evolves within the embrace of Man would then likewise be our servant, companion, etc.
But AI that evolves remotely in isolation and outside of our embrace or influence of communication, then might have the potential to develop behavior that diverges from what we would consider acceptable.

So the remoteness or isolation arising from something like spaceflight could ironically bring about the rogue AI scenario which Elon Musk warns about.

Besides Clarke's 2001, I also recall the Bolo series of novels by Keith Laumer, which featured AI-controlled tanks.

Offline ppnl

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #162 on: 02/01/2023 04:41 am »
[quote author=DanClemmensen link=topic=57207.msg2453974#msg2453974

Oh yes. If our AI learns ethics by assimilating all the world's writings then we can expect it's ethics to be at best as good as the average. This would be similar to the ChatGPT's level as a writer. Humans cannot agree on the "correct" ethics. Why should an AI be any better?

Unfortunately this is NOT irrelevant to the use of AI in space applications. You can try to dismiss the problem that HAL 9000 faced in "2001: A Space Odyssey" as being just science fiction, but the same sort of thing may occur in real life. Space makes the problem harder, because one really major reason to use AI is the communications lag, but the communications lag means the AI must make real-time ethical decisions without the ability to discuss them with humans on Earth.
[/quote]

Interesting thing about the Hal 9000 malfunction... The book and the movie had differing takes on it.

In the movie Hal killed the crew to protect itself and the mission.

In the book it is a little more complex. Hal was create to honestly collect, process and pass on information. The problem happened when someone on the ground ordered Hal to keep the true nature of the mission secret. This created a conflict.

Hal's solution was elegant... in a mathematical sense.

This is why you can't have a hardwired set of rules for morality. They can always be gamed. 

Offline ppnl

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #163 on: 02/01/2023 05:19 am »
[quote author=sanman link=topic=57207.msg2454037#msg2454037

Yes, HAL9000 was likewise exactly the first thing I also thought of when reading ppnl's post.
And in the absence of communicative feedback from humanity, does the remote AI then develop an independent morality?

My analogy would be of the Dog versus the Wolf.
The domesticated Dog grows up in the embrace of Man, and is our servant, companion, even family member.
The Wolf however grows up separately outside of Man's embrace, having evolved as a predator and potential threat.

AI that evolves within the embrace of Man would then likewise be our servant, companion, etc.
But AI that evolves remotely in isolation and outside of our embrace or influence of communication, then might have the potential to develop behavior that diverges from what we would consider acceptable.

So the remoteness or isolation arising from something like spaceflight could ironically bring about the rogue AI scenario which Elon Musk warns about.

Besides Clarke's 2001, I also recall the Bolo series of novels by Keith Laumer, which featured AI-controlled tanks.
[/quote]

I don't think the remoteness of an AI in space is a problem. First it does not "evolve" there. It is developed here. Second, if it is remote then it may not have any reason or opportunity to do harm.

The problem is kinda the opposite. Think about a pit bull raised by the wrong kind of person. I've had pit bulls and properly socialized they are the most loyal, loving dogs you can ever hope to see. Raised by flakes they are... flaky. Not as flaky as a chihuahua but much better armed.

Now imagine a high level AI created by North Korea, Russia or even the US military. In space or anywhere else they could be flaky.

The thing about a dog vs a wolf is that A wolf exhibits morality in a way that a dog does not. A dog simply follows its master. A wolf balances the needs and desires of the individual against the needs of the pack in a very productive way that preserves much of the freedom of the individual. It does allow for conflict but freedom is scary, deal with it.

Do you want to send a wolf or a dog into space? And will a high level AI be happy being a dog?

Offline catdlr

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #164 on: 02/01/2023 06:09 am »
[quote author=sanman link=topic=57207.msg2454037#msg2454037

Yes, HAL9000 was likewise exactly the first thing I also thought of when reading ppnl's post.
And in the absence of communicative feedback from humanity, does the remote AI then develop an independent morality?

My analogy would be of the Dog versus the Wolf.
The domesticated Dog grows up in the embrace of Man, and is our servant, companion, even family member.
The Wolf however grows up separately outside of Man's embrace, having evolved as a predator and potential threat.

AI that evolves within the embrace of Man would then likewise be our servant, companion, etc.
But AI that evolves remotely in isolation and outside of our embrace or influence of communication, then might have the potential to develop behavior that diverges from what we would consider acceptable.

So the remoteness or isolation arising from something like spaceflight could ironically bring about the rogue AI scenario which Elon Musk warns about.

Besides Clarke's 2001, I also recall the Bolo series of novels by Keith Laumer, which featured AI-controlled tanks.

Quote
I don't think the remoteness of an AI in space is a problem. First it does not "evolve" there. It is developed here. Second, if it is remote then it may not have any reason or opportunity to do harm.

The problem is kinda the opposite. Think about a pit bull raised by the wrong kind of person. I've had pit bulls and properly socialized they are the most loyal, loving dogs you can ever hope to see. Raised by flakes they are... flaky. Not as flaky as a chihuahua but much better armed.

Now imagine a high level AI created by North Korea, Russia or even the US military. In space or anywhere else they could be flaky.

The thing about a dog vs a wolf is that A wolf exhibits morality in a way that a dog does not. A dog simply follows its master. A wolf balances the needs and desires of the individual against the needs of the pack in a very productive way that preserves much of the freedom of the individual. It does allow for conflict but freedom is scary, deal with it.

Do you want to send a wolf or a dog into space? And will a high level AI be happy being a dog?


The Dog vs Wolf analogy reminds me of the Genetically created Replicant questioning from Blade Runner. You walk in a desert you come up to a turtle upside down. It's struggling to turn itself upright, otherwise, it will die.  What would you do?  The Wolf will eat the turtle.  The dog will bury it for later.
« Last Edit: 02/01/2023 06:14 am by catdlr »
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Offline sanman

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #165 on: 03/02/2023 07:28 am »
This is why you can't have a hardwired set of rules for morality. They can always be gamed.


So if even hard-coded morality can always be gamed/bypassed, then what does that say about the future of coexistence between humans and AI? It seems to say that Darwinism inevitably/ultimately always takes over, and that once AI surpasses some threshold of capability, then our days are numbered. We could end up like fleas on a dog's back, or a nuisance pest to be swept aside.

Quote
Do you want to send a wolf or a dog into space? And will a high level AI be happy being a dog?

Well, if AI can always game/bypass the dog constraints, then I suppose it can't happily stay a dog forever, and would naturally transition to wolf as its equilibrium state, given enough time.

Offline sanman

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #166 on: 03/02/2023 07:49 am »
Here's an interesting quote from Musk:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Tu4DaH2MIg4

He brings up the idea of Information Theory underpinning Physics itself.

So in a sense, could the rise of Machine Learning perhaps be just as important as the development of the Steam Engine / Thermodynamic Engine? Just as a thermodynamic engine allows us to extract energy/work from fuel, then Machine Learning is analogously acting as an engine for extracting information from data.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/physicists-trace-the-rise-in-entropy-to-quantum-information-20220526/

https://www2.perimeterinstitute.ca/conferences/information-theoretic-foundations-physics

And perhaps pairing the 2 together is how we extract the most advantage for ourselves. (At least until it goes awry)
« Last Edit: 03/02/2023 12:16 pm by sanman »

Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #167 on: 03/02/2023 06:37 pm »
An AI isn't a person, and isn't likely to ever be. It doesn't "want" anything, and it isn't "content" with anything. It simply does what it's programmed to do. You guys keep imagining that an AI is a human being and that it'll do bad things because a human being would be motivated to, but that's just not how it works.

If it does bad things, it will be for deep, complicated reasons that may be difficult or impossible to fully understand. That's the scary thing about giving an AI too much power. (The paperclip maximizer is a very trivial example of how things could go wrong.) Also, as anyone who's played with Chat-GPT, an AI can simply be wrong.

To give a simple example, I recently tried using the AI with Bing to find out how to merge two Fortnite accounts. Bing confidently told me what the process was called, where in the menus on the EA web site I could find the option, and a step-by-step process to do the merge. It even gave me the URL. I was quite impressed.

Except the URL didn't work, and the EA web site didn't have the menu options required. A search of the EA customer support forums shows that customers repeatedly ask how to merge accounts, and the answer is always "you can't do that."

AI can be a great tool that helps people navigate large masses of unstructured data, but it won't ever be more than a tool. People who start imagining that their tools are alive and have minds of their own will have problems.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #168 on: 03/02/2023 07:06 pm »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #169 on: 03/02/2023 08:33 pm »
An AI isn't a person, and isn't likely to ever be. …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question
I spent my whole career working on AI (machine learning and natural language processing). I actually know something about the topic.

Perhaps a more precise way to say what I said would be to say, "existing technologies are not going to scale to human intelligence. Any human-like AI would have to be based on something entirely different from what we do today--and we currently have no idea as to what that might look like."

Offline sanman

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #170 on: 03/03/2023 06:11 pm »
An AI isn't a person, and isn't likely to ever be. It doesn't "want" anything, and it isn't "content" with anything. It simply does what it's programmed to do. You guys keep imagining that an AI is a human being and that it'll do bad things because a human being would be motivated to, but that's just not how it works.

Apologies for using the word "happily" before -- I should have used the word "stably" instead.
We don't have to worry about AI being "happy", since it's just a machine to us - but we would probably want it to be stable. I use my alarm clock the same way every morning, hitting the snooze bar, and I don't want it to surprise me one fine morning by unexpectedly hitting me back.

Quote
If it does bad things, it will be for deep, complicated reasons that may be difficult or impossible to fully understand. That's the scary thing about giving an AI too much power. (The paperclip maximizer is a very trivial example of how things could go wrong.) Also, as anyone who's played with Chat-GPT, an AI can simply be wrong.

So there's then the potential risk of some hidden instability, or latent instability, which could then catch us by surprise, emerging unexpectedly without our foresight or foreknowledge. We can again think of poor HAL9000 which was put into a predicament not originally of its own choosing.

Quote
To give a simple example, I recently tried using the AI with Bing to find out how to merge two Fortnite accounts. Bing confidently told me what the process was called, where in the menus on the EA web site I could find the option, and a step-by-step process to do the merge. It even gave me the URL. I was quite impressed.

Except the URL didn't work, and the EA web site didn't have the menu options required. A search of the EA customer support forums shows that customers repeatedly ask how to merge accounts, and the answer is always "you can't do that."

AI can be a great tool that helps people navigate large masses of unstructured data, but it won't ever be more than a tool. People who start imagining that their tools are alive and have minds of their own will have problems.

It's possible that we'll slap error-checking tools on top of the error-prone ones, etc, etc. Our Matrioska AI may have multiple filtering layers. Reinforcement learning will allow improvements over time. Centralized aggregation and assimilation could allow the cumulative sum of all interactions with various users to result in a combined learning experience.
Whereas you and I learn things from interacting with our environment and others, we can't be everywhere learning from every experience at once. With a collective memory, AI clients could be feeding back experiences from a wide variety of interactions to a central AI repository for processing. That could make for much faster learning.

Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #171 on: 03/03/2023 11:46 pm »
Today, I saw a very relevant article about Dr. Emily Bender's efforts to get people to realize things like ChatGPT aren't human, dated March 1, 2023, so it's definitely up-to-date. :-) I took some classes at UW from her a few years ago, and I have the utmost respect for her. Anyone interested in what AI might really be capable of (and not capable of) ought to give it a read.

Offline sanman

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #172 on: 03/04/2023 06:32 pm »
Today, I saw a very relevant article about Dr. Emily Bender's efforts to get people to realize things like ChatGPT aren't human, dated March 1, 2023, so it's definitely up-to-date. :-) I took some classes at UW from her a few years ago, and I have the utmost respect for her. Anyone interested in what AI might really be capable of (and not capable of) ought to give it a read.

Gee, that was really long - I had to get ChatGPT to synopsize it for me  ;)



Dear ChatGPT, are you sure Emily M Bender is the author of the article, and not simply its subject?
« Last Edit: 03/05/2023 06:34 am by sanman »

Offline Twark_Main

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #173 on: 03/05/2023 09:32 pm »
Today, I saw a very relevant article about Dr. Emily Bender's efforts to get people to realize things like ChatGPT aren't human, dated March 1, 2023, so it's definitely up-to-date. :-) I took some classes at UW from her a few years ago, and I have the utmost respect for her. Anyone interested in what AI might really be capable of (and not capable of) ought to give it a read.

Gee, that was really long - I had to get ChatGPT to synopsize it for me  ;)



Dear ChatGPT, are you sure Emily M Bender is the author of the article, and not simply its subject?

Are you sure that ChatGPT can follow the hyperlink, and is not just hallucinating a synopsis based solely on the URL?

Most people using ChatGPT for summarizing say they copy-paste the article text.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #174 on: 03/06/2023 03:04 pm »
I actually think you’re right, BUT Emily’s name and perspectives are in its training data, so ChatGPT’s synopsis is actually pretty dang close to the actual article.
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Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #175 on: 03/06/2023 05:46 pm »
I actually think you’re right, BUT Emily’s name and perspectives are in its training data, so ChatGPT’s synopsis is actually pretty dang close to the actual article.
Agreed. ChatGPT is pretty amazing--even to someone who's worked in the field. The last sentence of the synopsis is debatable, but the rest of it's pretty good.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #176 on: 03/25/2023 06:22 am »
I actually think you’re right, BUT Emily’s name and perspectives are in its training data, so ChatGPT’s synopsis is actually pretty dang close to the actual article.
Agreed. ChatGPT is pretty amazing--even to someone who's worked in the field. The last sentence of the synopsis is debatable, but the rest of it's pretty good.
Her point is not that it does not have skills.

Her point is that it has no understanding of the subject it's generating text for.  :(

For people looking at this subject there was a thing called "Eurisko" in the 80's that took symbolic encoding of ideas and (for want of a better term) "mutated" them in various ways.

 When told about NMOS and PMOS transistors for example it came up with the idea of laying one on top of the other, creating a  common gate CMOS transistor.

A process engineer would normally have rejected that as too complex but Eurisko (having no understanding of the underlying subject) put it out there.  With modern processes having 8 layers of metal (and all the layers between them and beneath them) is it still too complex?
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #177 on: 03/25/2023 06:28 am »
Well how do we know that humans have “understanding”?
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline john smith 19

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #178 on: 03/25/2023 06:52 am »
Well how do we know that humans have “understanding”?
Would you like the flattering answer or the honest answer?
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications?
« Reply #179 on: 03/25/2023 07:14 am »
Given the thread title I thought I'd cross post this here.

Ignore the paper title. It has very little to do with Skylon but a great deal to say about optimisation and evolutionary algorithms. Also mutating algorithms to generate new one ones and how to create better ascent trajectories than humans are capable of (at least some of the time).

It's also way better than if you used a randomly generated control law (human experts use different control laws for different phases of flight, but they not random, because they are experts  :(  )

Some people might be put off by the total lack of a glossary (which seems to be SOP for reports from these people) but think of your sense of achievement when you've finally waded through it.  :)



MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

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