Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : Starlink group 4-36 : CCSFS SLC-40 : 20 October 2022 (14:50 UTC)  (Read 24311 times)

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Thread for the Starlink 4-36 group launch.

NSF Threads for Starlink 4-36: Discussion

Launch October 20, 2022, 14:50 UTC (10:50 am EDT), from Canaveral SLC-40, on booster 1062-10.  First stage landing aboard A Shortfall Of Gravitas is expected.

Payload 54 Starlink satellites to 53.2 degree inclination on a northeastern trajectory.  Initial orbit 336 x 232 km.

Starlink v1.5 satellite mass is now about 300kg after the addition of laser ISL terminals.

Please use the Starlink Discussion Thread for all general discussion on Starlink.

Check the Starlink Index Thread for links to more Starlink information.




L2 SpaceX: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=60.0
« Last Edit: 10/19/2022 10:47 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post:
1443-EX-ST-2022
Mission 1831 Starlink Group 4-36 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39a at KSC, and the experimental recovery operation following the Falcon 9 launch
NET late September [NET Sep 20]
ASDS to the NE:  North  32  42  50   West  75  42  51
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Offline crandles57

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spaceflightnow
https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

has this from pad 40 late September. 4th launch from pad 40 in the month

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Now TBD. Ben Cooper says "late September or October."

If SpaceX maintains the planned 7-day gap and Starlink 4-35 settles on a record-breaking Sept 23rd attempt at LC-40, 4-36 could maybe still launch before the end of the month but that would probably require SpaceX to delay Galaxy 33/34 from Oct 5th or require its customer to accept being party to an LC-40 turnaround that would have been record-breaking two weeks prior.

More realistically, I think Starlink 4-36 could be delayed until Oct ~20th or later if SpaceX can't work a miracle and squeeze it in on Sept 27th or 28th.

Offline crandles57

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The NGA for 23rd was issued on 17th when launch could be early on 18th UTC. I think this suggests they can get the pad ready in 5 days, but this only works if both ASDS are available to alternate because the other pad is not in use. Shortest time for ASDS turnaround is more like 7 or 8 days.

This would suggest earliest schedule would be:

24th 4-35 ASOG (5 day pad, 11 day ASOG)
29th 4-36 JRTI (5 day pad, 10 day JRTI)
3rd Oct Crew-5 ASOG (22 day pad, 9 day ASOG)

Current schedule 5th Oct Galaxy 33&34 - not possible 6 day JRTI
Earliest possible perhaps 6th Galaxy 33&34 JRTI (7 day pad, 7 day JRTI )

If the 23rd NGA date holds then it suggests they can do 4 day pad turnarounds, and something like 23rd 27th 3rd 5th remains possible.

Of course, if Fiona makes recovery impossible then don't hold breathe for these dates

Offline crandles57

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http://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html [Sept 20]

Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on September 24, between 7:30pm and 10pm EDT. A Falcon 9 will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on very end of September or October TBD.  A Falcon 9 from pad 39A will launch four astronauts on NASA's Crew-5 mission on October 3, at the earliest, at 12:45pm EDT. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the Galaxy 33 & 34 communication satellites on October 5 at 7:07pm EDT.

While Galaxy is still stated to be Oct 5th, the "on very end of September or October TBD" suggest that at present they are still trying to fit in 2 starlink launches which will almost certainly delay Galaxy 33 34 launch. But of course this could change whether or not we see any delays with 4-35 and 4-36.




Offline Zed_Noir

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The NGA for 23rd was issued on 17th when launch could be early on 18th UTC. I think this suggests they can get the pad ready in 5 days, but this only works if both ASDS are available to alternate because the other pad is not in use. Shortest time for ASDS turnaround is more like 7 or 8 days.

This would suggest earliest schedule would be:

24th 4-35 ASOG (5 day pad, 11 day ASOG)
29th 4-36 JRTI (5 day pad, 10 day JRTI)
3rd Oct Crew-5 ASOG (22 day pad, 9 day ASOG)

Current schedule 5th Oct Galaxy 33&34 - not possible 6 day JRTI
Earliest possible perhaps 6th Galaxy 33&34 JRTI (7 day pad, 7 day JRTI )

If the 23rd NGA date holds then it suggests they can do 4 day pad turnarounds, and something like 23rd 27th 3rd 5th remains possible.
<snip>
Maybe SpaceX could drop the 4-36 booster off at Jacksonville and send JRTI back out to recover the Galaxy 33&34 booster?

Offline crandles57

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Maybe SpaceX could drop the 4-36 booster off at Jacksonville and send JRTI back out to recover the Galaxy 33&34 booster?

Interesting idea.

If ASDS turnaround longer than pad turnaround and ASDS is a limiting factor to launch cadence, then why not Port operations at Jacksonville?

Extra costs for longer trip from port to refurbishment facility but seems like they would be small compared maritime crew savings and faster launch cadence.

If some launches heading NE and some SE and some due East, might need extra caps for leg retraction or maybe that and the people with the right experience can easily be transported as necessary.

.

Another possibility for fitting in 4-35 and 4-36 and still doing Galaxy 33& 34 on 5th October would be if Artemis launch delays Crew-5 so ASOG can do the Galaxy landing & collection.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html
Quote
A Falcon 9 from pad 39A will launch four astronauts on NASA's Crew-5 mission on October 3, at the earliest
« Last Edit: 09/21/2022 03:26 pm by crandles57 »

Offline Ken the Bin

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Starlink group 4-36 : Florida : NET Sep 2022
« Reply #9 on: 09/25/2022 01:39 am »
I offer these three cancel-and-replace NGA notices which may be for this launch.  These all arrived early UTC on September 24.

The Rocket Launching notice cancels the Artemis I Rocket Launching notice, but it is clearly not a new Artemis I notice.  The dates and times are not correct for Artemis I.  They are for a mid-inclination Starlink launch (or something similar).

The two Space Debris notices (which are the same notice for two different Navigational Areas) cancel the two Space Debris notices for Starlink Group 4-35.  4-35 launched on September 24 as scheduled, with a Rocket Launching notice but with no Space Debris notice for second stage reentry.

So at this point my best guess is that none of these notices should have canceled any existing notices.  Given that, the most likely scenario is that they are for this launch.

Quote from: NGA
NAVAREA IV 981/22(11, 26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   302236Z SEP TO 010300Z OCT, ALTERNATE
   012214Z TO 020238Z, 022153Z TO 030217Z,
   032131Z TO 040155Z, 042109Z TO 050133Z,
   052048Z TO 060112Z, 062026Z TO 070050Z,
   AND 072005Z TO 080029Z OCT
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   A. 28-39.00N 080-38.03W, 28-48.00N 080-31.00W,
      28-57.00N 080-21.00W, 29-04.00N 080-10.00W,
      28-57.00N 080-06.00W, 28-48.00N 080-13.00W,
      28-34.00N 080-27.00W.
   B. 31-59.00N 076-43.00W, 32-48.00N 076-10.00W,
      33-19.00N 075-08.00W, 33-11.00N 075-00.00W,
      32-31.00N 075-20.00W, 31-52.00N 076-32.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 971/22.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 080129Z OCT 22.
Quote from: NGA
240531Z SEP 22
HYDROPAC 2649/22(83).
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
DNC 06, DNC 13.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   302346Z TO 302359Z SEP, ALTERNATE
   010001Z TO 010346Z, 012324Z TO 012359Z,
   020001Z TO 020324Z, 022303Z TO 022359Z,
   030001Z TO 030303Z, 032241Z TO 032359Z,
   040001Z TO 040241Z, 042219Z TO 042359Z,
   050001Z TO 050219Z, 052158Z TO 052359Z,
   060001Z TO 060158Z, 062136Z TO 062359Z,
   AND 070001Z TO 070136Z OCT IN AREA BOUND BY
   03-30.00N 120-51.00W, 03-30.00N 123-11.00W,
   14-19.00S 135-25.00W, 15-22.00S 133-50.00W.
2. CANCEL HYDROPAC 2635/22.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 070236Z OCT 22.//
Quote from: NGA
240531Z SEP 22
NAVAREA XII 710/22(83).
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   302346Z TO 302359Z SEP, ALTERNATE
   010001Z TO 010346Z, 012324Z TO 012359Z,
   020001Z TO 020324Z, 022303Z TO 022359Z,
   030001Z TO 030303Z, 032241Z TO 032359Z,
   040001Z TO 040241Z, 042219Z TO 042359Z,
   050001Z TO 050219Z, 052158Z TO 052359Z,
   060001Z TO 060158Z, 062136Z TO 062359Z,
   AND 070001Z TO 070136Z OCT IN AREA BOUND BY
   03-30.00N 120-51.00W, 03-30.00N 123-11.00W,
   14-19.00S 135-25.00W, 15-22.00S 133-50.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 705/22.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 070236Z OCT 22.//

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Starlink group 4-36 : Florida : NET Sep 2022
« Reply #10 on: 09/25/2022 04:45 pm »
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on September 30 or October 1 around 6pm EDT.
per Launch Photography 25 September update
http://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html

Offline zubenelgenubi

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https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7005  [September 21 update]
Quote
Starlink Group 4-36
Launch Time
NET September, 2022
...
Vehicles
B1062
Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship

 

Possible interference with September 30 Atlas V launch on neighboring SLC-41?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on September 30 or October 1 around 6pm EDT.
per Launch Photography 25 September update
http://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html

Re: SES-20 and 21:
SFN Launch Schedule, updated September 22:
Launch window September 30 21:36 to 22:16 UTC
= 5:36 to 6:16 pm EDT
« Last Edit: 09/26/2022 03:01 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Clarification of September 30 launch time:
NextSpaceFlight, updated September 25:
22:36 UTC
= 6:36 pm EDT

That is 20 minutes after the closing of the Atlas V launch window.

There is also the question of the weather.

Edit: Atlas V launch delayed to October 4.
« Last Edit: 09/28/2022 04:16 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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I offer these three cancel-and-replace NGA notices which may be for this launch.  These all arrived early UTC on September 24.

The Rocket Launching notice cancels the Artemis I Rocket Launching notice, but it is clearly not a new Artemis I notice.  The dates and times are not correct for Artemis I.  They are for a mid-inclination Starlink launch (or something similar).

The two Space Debris notices (which are the same notice for two different Navigational Areas) cancel the two Space Debris notices for Starlink Group 4-35.  4-35 launched on September 24 as scheduled, with a Rocket Launching notice but with no Space Debris notice for second stage reentry.

So at this point my best guess is that none of these notices should have canceled any existing notices.  Given that, the most likely scenario is that they are for this launch.

The coordinates do appear to match previous mid inclination Starlink launches. However, at least one of the area A. coordinates appears to have been omitted from the NGA notice. Also, I suspect that more Space Debris coordinates could be published to make the area rectangular.

Offline scr00chy

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Offline Rondaz

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Interestingly enough this created a scenario where Starlink 4-36 was slated to launch exactly one hour after SES 20&21 launched from SLC-41. In my understanding the eastern range is not able to support such a hasty one hour turnaround. Still subject to delays due to Ian as well.

https://twitter.com/JerryPikePhoto/status/1574586450326208527

Offline Ken the Bin

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No delay yet based on this L-3 weather forecast being issued.  But it's only 20% 'Go' for September 30.  60% 'Go' for October 1.  The Booster Recovery Weather risk is High for both days.  All other Additional Risk Criteria are Low for both days.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated September 27:
Quote
[Pending Hurricane Ian 🌀]
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on September 30 earliest at 6:41pm or later EDT.
= 22:41 UTC
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Offline crandles57

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Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated September 27:
Quote
[Pending Hurricane Ian 🌀]
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on September 30 earliest at 6:41pm or later EDT.
= 22:41 UTC

Where is safe for ASDS? and how after hurricane passed to reach landing zone?


Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post:
Hurricane Warning now in effect for the Cape:
Quote
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the mouth of the St.
Mary's River to the mouth of the South Santee River, South Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Sebastian Inlet, Florida
northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.


A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County
Line to the South Santee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Little
River Inlet, South Carolina.
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