Author Topic: Which company will achieve her goals before, SpaceX or Blue Origin?  (Read 20585 times)

Will SpaceX make it to Mars before Blue manages to create a CisLunar economy?
« Last Edit: 05/20/2022 08:18 am by Tywin »
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Offline DrHeywoodFloyd

Will SpaceX make it to Mars before Blue manages to create a CisLunar economy?

These images prove nothing, but some one can employ an artist....

Online meekGee

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Will SpaceX make it to Mars before Blue manages to create a CisLunar economy?
Tywin, it's option#3: SpaceX is already doing more in CisLunar space than anyone else, including BO.

I don't know if you can call it "establishing a CisLunar economy", but:

- Manned flights to LEO (regular basis, for profit)

- Manned flights around the moon (sold, planned, for profit)

- Mega constellation (operating)

- Lunar surface mission (planned, government contract)

- Reusable manned vehicle capable of supporting such activities (being built)

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Will SpaceX make it to Mars before Blue manages to create a CisLunar economy?
Tywin, it's option#3: SpaceX is already doing more in CisLunar space than anyone else, including BO.

I don't know if you can call it "establishing a CisLunar economy", but:

- Manned flights to LEO (regular basis, for profit)

- Manned flights around the moon (sold, planned, for profit)

- Mega constellation (operating)

- Lunar surface mission (planned, government contract)

- Reusable manned vehicle capable of supporting such activities (being built)

Hi Meekgee, but SpaceX goal is not CisLunar is Mars...

And Blue has contracted to LEO, a few now, Eutelsat, etc...

They have a government contract for an LEO crew Station.

They are in a fight for Lander's contract for the Moon, now.

They have a contract for sending the Kuiper constellation to LEO.

And reusable vehicles are almost ready and in the future may be 100% reusable.

The goals of Blue are close, I think so.
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Offline Asteroza

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I might argue which might be first;

A SpaceX mars base of substantial population

A BO cislunar space station and/or lunar surface base with a substantial population


I say this because Bezos has an avowed goal for space colony level stations, which is a fairly big goal, and comparable to a mars base.

I might argue which might be first;

A SpaceX mars base of substantial population

A BO cislunar space station and/or lunar surface base with a substantial population


I say this because Bezos has an avowed goal for space colony level stations, which is a fairly big goal, and comparable to a mars base.

And which do you think will be the first Asteroza?
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Offline deadman1204

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"company goals" is a constantly moving target.

SpaceX's goal used to be orbit.
Then it was getting to ISS
Then i was falcon heavy
then it was crewed flight


Online meekGee

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Will SpaceX make it to Mars before Blue manages to create a CisLunar economy?
Tywin, it's option#3: SpaceX is already doing more in CisLunar space than anyone else, including BO.

I don't know if you can call it "establishing a CisLunar economy", but:

- Manned flights to LEO (regular basis, for profit)

- Manned flights around the moon (sold, planned, for profit)

- Mega constellation (operating)

- Lunar surface mission (planned, government contract)

- Reusable manned vehicle capable of supporting such activities (being built)

Hi Meekgee, but SpaceX goal is not CisLunar is Mars...

And Blue has contracted to LEO, a few now, Eutelsat, etc...

They have a government contract for an LEO crew Station.

They are in a fight for Lander's contract for the Moon, now.

They have a contract for sending the Kuiper constellation to LEO.

And reusable vehicles are almost ready and in the future may be 100% reusable.

The goals of Blue are close, I think so.
Well you ask the question, but you clearly have the answer...  If you're looking for affirmation, it's certainly not coming from me.

Just keep in mind - BO still doesn't have a rocket, much less a spacecraft.  They have plans for such, but even those are not reusable.

They're not on track to achieving any goals...  Their biggest challenge is themselves, not SpaceX...
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Online DanClemmensen

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Will SpaceX make it to Mars before Blue manages to create a CisLunar economy?

SpaceX will achieve BO's goal as a side effect of it's own goal.

Offline TrevorMonty

Will SpaceX make it to Mars before Blue manages to create a CisLunar economy?

SpaceX will achieve BO's goal as a side effect of it's own goal.
Most likely outcome. SpaceX will go where money is ie commercial human and cargo transport to moon. Doesn't mean Mars plans are on hold. They could probably do both at same time. 


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« Last Edit: 05/20/2022 07:43 pm by TrevorMonty »

Offline darkenfast

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"company goals" is a constantly moving target.

SpaceX's goal used to be orbit.
Then it was getting to ISS
Then i was falcon heavy
then it was crewed flight



SpaceX's goal remains what it has always been: to make humanity multi-planetary.  Everything else is a step along that path, to be be modified, abandoned, or replaced as necessary in furtherance of that goal.
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Offline FishInferno

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No offense, but I don't understand why people keep rehashing the same "SpaceX vs. BO" question.

The fact is that both of these companies were founded around the same time, and they both have extremely wealthy benefactors (yes, I understand they weren't nearly as wealthy when these companies began).

Today, one of them has launched humans into orbit, maintains a fleet of orbital rocket boosters that fly almost weekly, and stands poised to launch the most powerful vehicle in human history which had already booked two lunar flights. The other flies a fleet of crewed suborbital boosters and has test-fired several rocket engines.

Even trying to be unbiased, the answer should be clear to questions like these.
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Both companies are just that, companies. 

two definitions-company-noun
#1. a commercial business:
"a space launch company".

As such there is a fiduciary responsibility to each company's shareholders. Blue Origin, LLC (Limited Liability Company) and Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is designed to make money.

#2. -the fact or condition of being with another or others, especially in a way that provides friendship and enjoyment:
"Space launch consumers are enjoying the company of lower priced options of accessing space."   

So far as achieving goals, both "should" make money.  If something doesn't make the company money, it's tough to justify it's existence. Almost polar opposite of the publicly funded human spaceflight model.
Developing, certifying and then finally employing an operational crew rated launcher/vehicle is a huge accomplishment for any private company, be it Space X or Blue Origin and I'm focusing on just launchers/crew vehicles, there's so much more out there as an industry.  These are certainly exciting times in spaceflight for all of us.

I don't prefer the femininization(if that's even the correct terminology??) of corporations in the title, IMO as entities they don't deserve the honour.  Unlike my C7A1 rifle-"Julie" and the various "ships/craft" which sail/dive/drive/ride/orbit the various "seas" of our Universe.  A female fellow recruit named her rifle "Carl".
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I don't prefer the femininization(if that's even the correct terminology??) of corporations in the title, IMO as entities they don't deserve the honour.

I don't know the native language of the OP but the noun "company" is feminine in some other languages (entreprise, compagnie in French, empresa in Spanish) FWIW.


Offline Asteroza

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I might argue which might be first;

A SpaceX mars base of substantial population

A BO cislunar space station and/or lunar surface base with a substantial population


I say this because Bezos has an avowed goal for space colony level stations, which is a fairly big goal, and comparable to a mars base.

And which do you think will be the first Asteroza?

To be honest, I think Blue Origin might be first (by a slim margin), but not on their own merits alone.

I suspect SpaceX will provide the push to get a cislunar economy going, of which BO will take part. BO benefits from the technology and provider ecosystem, which will be much more mature due to distance from earth. But I think that while BO's contributions will be substantive, most people could point to SpaceX as the leader, if not the pioneer, of that situation. So an incidental win.

But it's rare to have an absolute standalone win in history. You always stand on the backs of giants before you, some just have longer legs.

Online trimeta

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Perhaps it would be more helpful to actually define these endpoints. Does SpaceX "making it to Mars" just mean "the first crewed mission to Mars (with NASA astronauts riding on Starship)"? Does Blue Origin's "cislunar economy" just mean "Orbital Reef is sufficiently assembled to host crew"? Because that might be a legit race: Orbital Reef is scheduled for 2030, and while the first Mars mission could theoretically happen as early as 2026, I wouldn't be surprised by it being delayed a couple of synods.

Of course, both SpaceX's "making life multiplanetary" and Blue Origin's nebulous "cislunar economy" plans are more advanced than the goals I just outlined. And it must be mentioned that if SpaceX can send a Starship on a multi-month journey to Mars, at least two years prior they could have sent one into LEO and called it a "temporary space station," thus beating Blue Origin to their own goal.

But taking into account that Blue Origin's goal is strictly less ambitious in terms of hardware, the two companies may be more evenly matched (by their own internal metrics) than it appears.

Offline Cheapchips

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SpaceX's goal remains what it has always been: to make humanity multi-planetary.  Everything else is a step along that path, to be be modified, abandoned, or replaced as necessary in furtherance of that goal.

Blue's equivalent goal is 'millions of people living and working in space', not just a cis-lunar economy.  Technically, every person SpaceX sends to Mars counts towards Blue's aspirational mission.  If there's more than 2m people out in the solar system before Mars is self sufficient, Blue wins.

(even if they've not even launched a single thing by 21xx and no longer exist as a company)

Offline Robotbeat

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SpaceX’s goal is sorta kinda ultimately terraforming of Mars. A process that would take hundreds or thousands of years.
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Online meekGee

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SpaceX’s goal is sorta kinda ultimately terraforming of Mars. A process that would take hundreds or thousands of years.
... and still ahead of transferring Earth industry to orbit with millions of people there...

Looking closer to the present, say a decade out, I'll posit that SpaceX will have a settlement (i.e. a permanent and growing human presence, making heavy and increasing use of ISRU) on Mars before BO (or anyone else) does something similar on the moon, orbit, or asteroids.

There will be tourism to the moon, but that's like taking a cruise ship to some exotic island - it's not exactly "settling" it or transferring industry to it.  This is not BO's goal, and coincidentally I don't think BO will lead there - it'll end up being a side-gig of Starship, simply because it can and it exists.
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Offline deadman1204

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SpaceX’s goal is sorta kinda ultimately terraforming of Mars. A process that would take hundreds or thousands of years.
Your missing a few zeros on your numbers. Planets are WAY WAY bigger than people think they are. If its even possible, think millions.

 

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