Predictions for 2022 include a couple of carryovers from 2021 as well as some new, great expectationsPredictions from 2021 turned out 18/27.https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2161688#msg21616882022 Predictions1* SLS attempts it's very first launch in 2022 2* Ariane does not field a reusable rocket.3* ULA does not field a reusable rocket.4* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket5* Boeing Starliner will not complete crew certification in 20226* 50 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO. (No dear moon)7* A Starship stack launches high enough and fast enough to test it's heat shield.8* Falcon Heavy flies (again)9* Crew Dragon flies at least once (again).10* Falcon 9 continues to fly more than Atlas V. Falcon 9 reliability in 2021 is as perfect as Atlas V's.11* SX flies more orbital launches than any other year. (31 is the previous record)12* SX flies more (NASA astronauts + Dragon riders) than any other nation does in 2022 .13* Over 500,000+ Starlink terminals operating by end of 2021. Equivalent to over 1/2 a billion dollar a year revenue stream. 14* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 4 times15* A successful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)16* An unsuccessful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)17* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem (again)18* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government19* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.20* Ariane launches 7 or fewer rockets ( not including VEGA or soyuz)21* China successfully flies an impressive mission that provides some Chinese firsts
Arianespace's Ariane 6Blue Origin's New GlennSpaceX's StarshipUnited Launch Alliance Vulcan-CentaurSLSFirst launch of the Gaganyaan 1 capsule preparing for future crewed flights from India.Boeing Starliner crewed test
- Russia lands Cosmonauts on the moon. while on the moon, the Cosmonauts try to get into the Tesla lunar Cybertruck, sentry mode flashes at them recording everything. hehe Cosmonauts featured on WHAMBAM.
Raptor doesn't work, Starlink saturates, Musk say a stupid thing on Twitter because Ambien, one Falcon 9 explodes, SpaceX go bankrupt, Europe laugh its a$$ off...
My prediction1. 99.999% of the people posting here will NOT read other peoples predictions (Yep, I am in this group)2. There will be some launches3. There will be mostly successes but some failures4. I will be awarded the prize for the most accurate predictions of 2022
- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (threepeat. no customers yet but not mothballed)
- Starlink Beta will expand to include 2x or more customers but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers.. changed from area to customers)
SLS flies in H2, successful.Starship flies in H2, does not make orbit.Starliner flies, Boeing and NASA spend the rest of the year arguing about whether they can proceed to a crewed flight.Each of the above flies just once in 2022.
..... Tesla will unveil a rover prototype ..... (repeat of last four years)
I suddenly noticed that there is already a thread dealing with fulfilled and unfulfilled predictions for spaceflight in 2022:https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43979.0Maybe someone can merge these two threads together.