Predictions 2022

[freddo411]

Predictions for 2022 include a couple of carryovers from 2021 as well as some new, great expectations

Predictions from 2021 turned out 18/27.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2161688#msg2161688


2022 Predictions


1* SLS attempts it's very first launch in 2022   

2* Ariane does not field a reusable rocket.

3* ULA does not field a reusable rocket.

4* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket

5* Boeing Starliner will not complete crew certification in 2022

6* 50 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO. (No dear moon)

7* A Starship stack launches high enough and fast enough to test it's heat shield.  (wrong)

8* Falcon Heavy flies (again)

9* Crew Dragon flies at least once (again).

10* Falcon 9 continues to fly more than Atlas V.  Falcon 9 reliability in 2021 is as perfect as Atlas V's.

11* SX flies more orbital launches than any other year. (31 is the previous record)

12* SX flies more (NASA astronauts + Dragon riders) than any other nation does in 2022 .

13* Over 500,000+ Starlink terminals operating by end of 2021.   Equivalent to over 1/2 a billion dollar a year revenue stream.

14* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 4 times

15* A successful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

16* An unsuccessful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

17* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem (again)

18* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government

19* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.

20* Ariane launches 7 or fewer rockets ( not including VEGA or soyuz)

21* China successfully flies an impressive mission that provides some Chinese firsts

[woods170]

I predict there will be a “predictions 2023” thread before 2022 is out.






(ducks and runs...)

[libra]

Nauka and Webb will suffer more delays and their launches will be pushed again AT HORRIBLE EXPENSE - as they have been since my high school days of 1996

...

 (which also happened to be Ariane 5 (unfortunate) beginnings... Webb bracketed that booster entire lifespan; launch 1 to launch 112, only 5 left !)

...

wait

...

Nope, THEY HAVE LAUNCHED IN 2021

...

Except they seemingly left their jinx on Earth solid ground, and the two jinxes coalesced into Boeing Starliner... will Boeing need 25 years to fix their damn capsule ? We shall see... in 2046 !!!

[libra]

Predictions for 2022 include a couple of carryovers from 2021 as well as some new, great expectations

Predictions from 2021 turned out 18/27.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2161688#msg2161688


2022 Predictions


1* SLS attempts it's very first launch in 2022   

2* Ariane does not field a reusable rocket.

3* ULA does not field a reusable rocket.

4* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket

5* Boeing Starliner will not complete crew certification in 2022

6* 50 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO. (No dear moon)

7* A Starship stack launches high enough and fast enough to test it's heat shield.

8* Falcon Heavy flies (again)

9* Crew Dragon flies at least once (again).

10* Falcon 9 continues to fly more than Atlas V.  Falcon 9 reliability in 2021 is as perfect as Atlas V's.

11* SX flies more orbital launches than any other year. (31 is the previous record)

12* SX flies more (NASA astronauts + Dragon riders) than any other nation does in 2022 .

13* Over 500,000+ Starlink terminals operating by end of 2021.   Equivalent to over 1/2 a billion dollar a year revenue stream.

14* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 4 times

15* A successful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

16* An unsuccessful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

17* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem (again)

18* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government

19* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.

20* Ariane launches 7 or fewer rockets ( not including VEGA or soyuz)

21* China successfully flies an impressive mission that provides some Chinese firsts

Raptor doesn't work, Starlink saturates, Musk say a stupid thing on Twitter because Ambien, one Falcon 9 explodes, SpaceX go bankrupt, Europe laugh its a$$ off... 

[eric z]

 I predict when JWST finally gets all-warmed up, oops, I mean chilled down, in the farthest reaches it will see a sign that says "Kilroy was here".

[AmigaClone]

My predictions for 2022.

At least one of the following gets its first orbital launch (or in the case of Starliner 'first crewed orbital launch') delayed to 2023 or later. Also, at least one of those in the list below, that is launched, has a less than successful mission (as defined by the launch provider.)

Arianespace's Ariane 6
Blue Origin's New Glenn
SpaceX's Starship
United Launch Alliance Vulcan-Centaur
SLS
First launch of the Gaganyaan 1 capsule preparing for future crewed flights from India.
Boeing Starliner crewed test

At least one company that has successfully launched an orbital launch vehicle by the end of 2021 is projected by the end of June to set a new company record in terms of successful launches. That same company would fail to meet those mid-year expectations.

At least one launch vehicle that has more than 20 consecutive successful launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload.

SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 booster on landing.

A Falcon 9 booster will reach 15 landings.

Blue Origin will sue someone.

More than one topic started after January first 2022 will be completely off topic within a month.

[Vahe231991]

- Russia lands Cosmonauts on the moon. while on the moon, the Cosmonauts try to get into the Tesla lunar Cybertruck, sentry mode flashes at them recording everything. hehe Cosmonauts featured on WHAMBAM.

The space plan by Roscosmos for 2022 doesn't include landing people on the Moon, but the Luna 25 will be the first Russian lunar probe to land on the Moon since the USSR's collapse 30 years ago.

[DeanG1967]

My prediction

1.  99.999% of the people posting here will NOT read other peoples predictions (Yep, I am in this group)

2.  There will be some launches

3.  There will be mostly successes but some failures

4.  I will be awarded the prize for the most accurate predictions of 2022

[Orbiter]

JWST deploys nominally without incident. First pictures back blow our minds.

SpaceX experiences a failure on the first orbital attempt with Starship. Booster 4 and Ship 20 do not fly the first orbital attempt.

The usual F9 launches. Three FH missions in 2022 - the rest are pushed off into 2023. Pysche launches and goes well.

ULA does not launch Vulcan in 2022.

SLS launches in May 2022 after a few scrubs. Rollout for WDR pushes back to February. Overall mission is successful. Shuttle fans rejoice seeing SRBs and SSMEs light up the space coast again. Artemis II crew named for a mid-2024 launch date.

Starliner OFT-2 flies in July. CFT-1 flies in November (could be pushed to 2023).

[spacenut]

Raptor doesn't work, Starlink saturates, Musk say a stupid thing on Twitter because Ambien, one Falcon 9 explodes, SpaceX go bankrupt, Europe laugh its a$$ off... 

You must hate Elon Musk.  Raptor already works, Musk just wants more thrust out of it, make it more simple, and less costly.  Same thing he did with Merlin.  Musk will not allow SpaceX to go bankrupt.  He will sell off his Tesla sharses to save it.  His one goal in life is to get to Mars.  Starlink is going to pay for that.  Think why he is into Tesla, The Boring Company, and SpaceX.  Tesla electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels can be used on Mars.  Boring can be used to build cities underground to avoid radiation on Mars.  Then SpaceX will get the equipment there.  Even his brother using shipping containers grows food.  This is being proven out so food can be grown this way on Mars.  It all comes together on Mars.

I don't like to make predictions because I don't know as much about the other companies or there are a lot of unknowns that could affect anything space related.  Another Covid variant maybe, or stressful foreign tensions, or hyperinflation due to excess government spending.   

[Kaputnik]

SLS flies in H2, successful.
Starship flies in H2, does not make orbit.
Starliner flies, Boeing and NASA spend the rest of the year arguing about whether they can proceed to a crewed flight.

Each of the above flies just once in 2022.

[Eric Hedman]

My prediction

1.  99.999% of the people posting here will NOT read other peoples predictions (Yep, I am in this group)

2.  There will be some launches

3.  There will be mostly successes but some failures

4.  I will be awarded the prize for the most accurate predictions of 2022

I read other people's predictions including yours.  So for you to be right a 100,000 people will have to come on here and just post without reading anything. Edit - When this thread gets to 100,000 posts for every view, let me know.

[Lar]

My predictions for 2022.. somewhat rehashed from 2021, which were rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2021:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2172722#msg2172722
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2326071#msg2326071
2020:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2031118#msg2031118
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2172520#msg2172520
2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

2022 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 22 (up from 20 last year) flights, I guessed 42 in the poll: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55469.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (same as last year, they didn't)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (same as last year, they made it)
- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered at least one of those times (lost two years in a row, this year I will win. Maybe. Maybe just half. There are several on the manifest.)
- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return. (Booster 4, Ship 20 or some followon pair will have a successful demo flight)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (20 saw FAA opening RFC, this will continue)
- Starlink ) constellation will see at least another 800 satellites launched (this is lowball actually, up from 600)
- Starlink Beta will expand to include 2x or more customers but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers.. changed from area to customers)
- At least 1 Starlink satellite will be released by a Starship into orbit by end of year. (this requires them making orbit and solving cargo hatches... could happen)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and will be serious tunneling on more than one project at once. Vegas initial boring project completed, operational and work proceeding on route/system expansion. At least one other project will be underway somewhere. There will be new TBMs that are refinements of what did the Vegas work. (repeat of last year)
- Dragon launched passengers last year, twice. This year there will be more Dragon crew launched than Starliner crew (as last year).
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last four years)
- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 80% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 8 fairing halves will be reused successfully. (up from 75% and 6 reused fairing halves)
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration (probably gonna lose this one, did two years in a row)
- There will be no significant name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020 (went with no, won last year after losing 2 yes predictions in a row)
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc) (repeat. cmon, anything??) by SpaceX
- by some credible third party (Bechtel, Caterpillar... you get the idea)

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2022 (repeat... maybe this year?)
- Boeing will be credibly alleged to have done some skullduggery of some sort. (too easy but I can't help myself)

- Enough with the detailed ULA picks about IVF/Centaur!!! I give up. This year ULA does nothing to advance either of these. (won last year betting they do nothing)
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (threepeat, and still kind of a gimme)
- ULA will have at least one launch campaign that scrubs 5 or more times before a successful (or otherwise) launch (this is a hard one to judge)

- Blue will launch New Shepard more than 4 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (I think they're picking up steam)
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat, gimme)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- Artemis will make progress but the first crewed lunar landing slips at least a year from what it was predicted to be on Jan 1 2021

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 7 times. At least 5 launches will be a success. (lost last year with 8/6)
- By year end there will be at least 3 Electron recoveries that were at least partially successful, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (up from 2 last year which I won)
- by year end

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2021 again (they did last year)
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (fourpeat of last year...  finally won it)
- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (threepeat. no customers yet but not mothballed)

- Voyager will announce at least one more surprise acquisition beyond Nanoracks (repeat of last year)

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL). (repeat of last year)

- Astra will end the year with their stock price below their SPAC-IPO but will not yet be bankrupt.

[Danderman]

Starship will have enough problems so that not many people will believe the near term predictions of landing on the Moon or Mars soon. Starship development will be a long slog, much like development of the reusable Falcon 9 first stage.

[Vahe231991]

- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (threepeat. no customers yet but not mothballed)

The Model 351 Roc made its third flight last month and one day, either Virgin Galactic or Axiom Aerospace could pay from launches from the Model 351 involving the LauncherOne or another air-launched rocket.

[envy887]

- Starlink Beta will expand to include 2x or more customers but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers.. changed from area to customers)

Starlink said they were leaving beta and also scrubbed all references to the beta program from the website last October, so I think you missed this prediction before you even made it.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/starlink-website-nixes-beta-wording-warns-chip-shortage-is-delaying-orders

[Vahe231991]

SLS flies in H2, successful.
Starship flies in H2, does not make orbit.
Starliner flies, Boeing and NASA spend the rest of the year arguing about whether they can proceed to a crewed flight.

Each of the above flies just once in 2022.

After having successfully completed its wet dress rehearsal testing, the SLS is increasingly becoming very likely to carry out its first launch this year, with NASA leaning towards a late August/early September launch window. The OFT-2 mission of the Boeing Starliner met all objectives, and Boeing and NASA are in the process of finding a precise date in the second half of this year for the first manned mission of the Boeing Starliner.

[Zed_Noir]

..... Tesla will unveil a rover prototype ..... (repeat of last four years)

With it's unveiling at the upcoming Tesla A.I. day 2. Technically the TeslaBot could be consider a rover unit. Just have to dress it up in a protective suit. 

[Vahe231991]

I suddenly noticed that there is already a thread dealing with fulfilled and unfulfilled predictions for spaceflight in 2022:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43979.0

Maybe someone can merge these two threads together.

[freddo411]

I suddenly noticed that there is already a thread dealing with fulfilled and unfulfilled predictions for spaceflight in 2022:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43979.0

Maybe someone can merge these two threads together.

Despite the confusing similar thread names, that thread is predictions from 2017 for 5 years in the future (2022).   

Not the same topic.  Please don’t merge

(ADMINS:  requesting a thread title edit to deconflict these two threads)