Predictions 2022

[scienceguy]

It's time for the predictions thread again!

Link to last year's thread:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.0

Predictions for spaceflight 2022

Starship sent to Mars

SpaceX transports crew to the ISS at least 3 times

SLS continues to be delayed

NASA Perseverance rover finds evidence of organic molecules

Rocket lab reaches orbit at least once

Virgin Galactic continues to take tourists into space

An exomoon is discovered

Earth-sized planet less than 40 light years away found with nitrogen in its atmosphere

Another Earth-size planet found in the habitable zone of a star less than 20 light years away

Water vapor found in the atmosphere of Callisto

India continues its space program with no major setbacks

China continues work on space station with no major setbacks

[Scintillant]

JWST deploys successfully (fingers crossed!).

Astra reaches orbit at least once before the end of H1 2022.

Artemis 1 launches before the end of 2022.

OFT-2 flies, but CFT does not.

Vulcan flies.

At least 2 more internet satellite constellations are announced.

[Mr. Scott]

Predictions 2022:

* New concept for In-Situ Resource Management to synthesize Kool-Aid from Martian soil.
* Angry Astronaut destroys his mug and switches to decaf.
* Cybertruck II is announced with an expanded trunk for deep lunar excursions.
* Jake Sully from Avatar 2 rides on board the New Shepard.  Public are given access to experience flight remotely in space through VR technology.
* Fully reusable SLS Block III is announced.
* First astronaut candidates to Mars are announced.  All are billionaires.
* Virgin Galactic, Virgin Orbit and Virgin Hyperloop are merged with Virgin Atlantic under a new brand simply called “V” to deliver passengers and cargo to overseas destinations with a more environmentally clean way to travel.
* JWST discovers a powerless mothership in our solar system.   Alien symbols on the ship’s exterior are determined to just be advertising logos.
* New military academy announced for the Space Force.  The Pahrump Space Force Academy Space Cadets football team goes undefeated and wins the 2022 BCS National Championship 105-0 over Alabama.  Opposing teams decide to do more football training in the Mojave desert in the next year.
* Per William Shatner's request, all of Earth's pollution is captured and launched to space aboard SLS along with nine (9) African bush elephants and two humpback whales.  The launch saves the human species.
* Carbon capture technologies demonstrated to terraform Venus.  New XPrize announced to get Venus to stop smelling like a tropical sulphuric swamp.
* NSF website offers Duluth fire hose pants rated for watching large heavy lift rocket launches in Texas heat.  Rated 5 stars for experiencing colossal explosions and blast wave deflagration events triggered by the largest collection of conical shape charges ever flown.
* An Earth sized Planet 9 is discovered orbiting the Sun at last.  Scientists reveal it was hiding in plain sight which was hard to see as it is a flat planet.  The planet is named Lombardi after the owner of New York’s first pizza restaurant.
* Fact checkers confirm that if you play the video footage backwards for the 2021 Starship launches, the vehicle miraculously sucks large quantities of pollutants from the air, then return them to Earth to be sequestered deep underground - saving the environment and the human species from extinction.  The award winning study is published in Annals of Improbable Research.
* NASA issues a venture capital miles anywhere anytime bonus plus rewards credit card where taxpayers earn frequent flyer mileage for each mile flown by astronauts on a mission looking for rocks anywhere in space.  Able to pay for anything but parking fees at the airport.
* Red Dragon concept announced.  Features a thirty foot wide screen display for animated PowerPoint presentations to wow passengers about new features/designs SpaceX is pursuing while traveling to Mars with Elon.
* Klingons empanel a high council as delays for all NASA launches continue to be delayed en perpetuity and there is nothing to shoot at.  Klingons determine that NASA's delays trace back to NASA's investigations for UAP assigned by Administrator Nelson.
* New administrator announced days before Artemis I launch.  Next NASA administrator announced to be Angry Astronaut.
* Congress unanimously approves $10 billion dollars for a second lunar lander.  The $10 billion dollars are loaded up into Artemis I Orion capsule in large denominations and dropped onto the lunar surface.  The first lunar lander to arrive on the lunar surface to pick up the dollar bills and return with them wins the $10 billion dollars.
* FCC approves a satellite constellation to literally blot out the sun allowing astronomers to stargaze throughout the day.
* Researchers rediscover that Ovaltine mixed with Strawberry Quik and Tang from 1960s enables astronauts to travel in space without effects to the human genome.
* Rotary phone with a coiled cord seen in Orion capsule.
* Top Gartner Hype Cycle Item 2022: Digital Management
* CoVID travel bans announced for all interstate, international, interplanetary, interstellar and intergalactic travel.  First detection of human-to-robot transmission of CoVID discovered.  All mobile robotic probes are now required to wear masks.  Despite travel bans, horses are used to move the SLS mobile launcher to pad 39B.  Fauci retires and the entire CoVID response for Earth is to be run by NASA's Planetary Protection Office.
* FAA offers vending machines to help expedite approvals for new vehicles going to the moon. 
* NSF viewership explodes by 1,000,000%
* The Oort Cloud totally disappears.  Scientists later discover that NSF Moderator zubenelgenubi somehow deleted it.
* Skyscraper concepts emerge for the Moon, Mars, Titan and Pluto using Starship vehicles for each floor. 
* In order to catch up to the advanced technology demonstrated at NASA and the rest of the space industry, all automobile and aircraft manufactures will define their products using specific point design solutions for singular use cases/destinations.  This enables consumers to buy a vehicle to travel to the grocery store, another vehicle to travel to explore a desert for rocks, and then another separate vehicle to investigate reusability after a single trip.
* Chang'e 5 arrives at 'the cube' and discovers that it is just a large suitcase of money with $10 billion in it.
* Space Force commits to development of a new transportation vehicle for the President... Space Force One (aka Presidential Starship).
* The term 'solar system' is ended by the IAU. 
* New ice age begins.  Global warming is mandated.

* 2022 Movie of the year:  Moonfall
* 2022 Best special effects:  Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
* 2022 Best director/actress:  Olivia Wilde-Don’t Worry Darling

[jketch]

*SLS flies in the first half of the year, successfully
*Starship flies in the first half of the year. Ascent and deorbit burns are successful, but it does not survive reentry. SuperHeavy has a successful landing
*Starship flies a total of four times. The final one survives reentry and makes an intact water landing in the Pacific. SuperHeavy  lands back at the launch site.
*SpaceX requests permission to increase launch cadence from Boca Chica from 5 launches annually to 20 launches and and EIS is being prepared.
*OFT-2 launches in July, CFT scheduled for early 2023.
*BE-4 achieves its rated thrust and is flight qualified. Flight engines are delivered to ULA and integrated to Vulcan by the end of the year, but it has not launched yet.
*JWST is launched in early January
*Ariane 6 flies, has a minor anomaly but still reaches orbit.
*New Shepard and VSS Unity continue to fly passengers without significant incident.
*At least one additional Dragon passenger flight beyond the NASA and Axiom flights is announced and flown.
*Shenzhou program continues as scheduled without major incident
*Initial Gaganyaan test flight occurs in Q4 and is successful. Crewed flight officially delayed to 2024

[StarshipPassenger69]

- Early 2022 - starship 20 goes to orbit, reentry is sketchy, loosing 1/4 of the heat tiles, comes back with new rainbow colors induced by reentry plasma, it softly lands for recovery, both SS 20 and SH 4 goes through in-depth investigations after flight.

- Nasa launches their brand new SLS, it fails, 1 or 2 of the 4 center core engines doesn't burn for the full duration.

- Late 2022 - SpaceX lands a Starship drone on the moon, deploy a Cyber truck and remotely drive it around. The truck will be outfitted with solar cells on the roof with a 4k 360 view video camera streaming real time to earth, probably on Youtube for the entire planet to watch. hopefully the truck has a flag pole on the box with the American flag.

- China lands taikonauts on the moon and plants fleg. they also find alot of ice.

- Russia lands Cosmonauts on the moon. while on the moon, the Cosmonauts try to get into the Tesla lunar Cybertruck, sentry mode flashes at them recording everything. hehe Cosmonauts featured on WHAMBAM.

- Nasa's DART mission will be successful. 

[Vahe231991]

Here are my predictions for 2022:
- SLS has a flawless first flight this February
- SpaceX signs a contract with the Carlsbad-based firm Poseidon Resources Corporation to use a 500,000 cubic feet glass tank and fill it with 1 million tons of seawater off the coast of southern California so that the water is desalinated and used to make sufficient liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen for the Starship rocket
- A rocket jointly developed by Cuba and South Africa using components from the canceled RSA-3 rocket components and FROG-7 artillery rockets makes its first orbital launch, constituting the first orbital launch for the developing world
- North Korea launching its first geostationary satellite into orbit
- Russia launching a spacecraft designed to retrieve and de-orbit derelict Soviet-era communications and SIGINT satellites over Siberia and the vicinity of Yekaterinberg
- SpaceX Starship achieves its first successful orbital flight
- First Dream Chaser orbital flight goes as planned
- The NROL-91 and NROL-68 are launched a few months apart from each other due to a tight NRO budget for fiscal year 2022.

[AS_501]

-   SLS has perfect launch.
-   Artemis 1 mission goes as planned.
-   First SS/SH heavy launch ends in failure during launch.
-   Second SS/SH flight is successful in all respects.
-   SS loses more tiles than expected during reentry, but remains intact for return.
-   Starliner has successful unmanned test flight to ISS, followed by successful crew flight.
-   All F9/Dragon launches and ISS dockings are successful.
-   JWST is successfully launched and deployed, through several hair-raising deployment hiccups occur.
-   HST suffers irreversible failure, shut down.
-   Mars Insight lander suffers complete power failure due to Martian dust on solar arrays.
-   Curiosity rover goes into extended safe mode, but is restored.
-   Mars Global Surveyor or Mars Odyssey suffers irreversible failure, shut down.
-   One of the Soyuz/ISS missions lands off-target following ballistic reentry.
-   One of the ISS SARJs begins to vibrate, locked in position until repair EVA is conducted.

[Phil Stooke]

You can already tick the Mars Global Surveyor box.  Congratulations!

[AS_501]

Old Mars orbiters don't die, they just fade away...

Did not know that, thanks!

[Finn Mac Doreahn]

SpaceX

Starship reaches orbit with a couple of minor problems. It water lands near the Marshall Islands and stays afloat long enough for the USN to recover it. Initially they think it’s an alien mother ship,but the SpaceX logo disproves that quickly. Another Starship test goes off course in the upper atmosphere and the FTS does its thing. No crewed mission by end of year but first is in planning for Q2 2023 and a crew has been named. Moonship and dearMoon continue to plod along with slight schedule slippage. Late in the year hardware for both is unveiled.

The rest of SpaceX’s manifest goes surprisingly well. One partial failure strands a bunch of polar Starlinks which are replaced a few months later. Ax-1,Crew-4,Ax-2,and Crew-5 go off successfully,but a Crew-1-esque thruster anomaly briefly threatens Ax-2. Judicious fuel consumption planning saves the day.

Blue Origin,Rocketlab,ATK,etc

NS flies 6 crewed missions. They fly their first ex-astronaut,Kathy Thornton,in early summer. One crewed mission in Q4 lands off target but is recovered later that night.

NG plods along. Yawn.

Rocket Lab flies ~10 missions,no failures. LC-2 is first utilized sometime about Q2. Four rocket stages are recovered,one is reused. Neutron hardware is unveiled in Q3.

ATK unveils a solid microsat launcher based on the SRB.

Astra flies 7 successful missions and 2 failures.

NASA

JWST launches on time,reaches L2,deploys. Not much spectacular science as yet,but the first exomoon is discovered using JWST data.

Nothing much happens on ISS. Some repair work is required.

LOFTID lands in the Gulf of Mexico. It is recovered.

Perseverance perseveres. Ingenuity falls silent in August.

Moon mission planning proceeds.  A cool new rover is unveiled in the spring. Dynetics rebrands their lander as a lunar cargo delivery system.

The new astronaut class is selected,consisting of 18 people. Two of them are openly LGBT+,which is revealed during an interview. Their selection isn’t really affected.

Russia,China,Japan

Roskosmos plods along until April,when a tweetscandal forces Rogozin to resign. Sergei Krikalev succeeds him. No mission failures.

Shenzhou 16-18 are announced,with the Shenzhou being retired after mission 21 or so in favor of the new vehicle. 3 mission failures,2 partial and 1 total. Zhurong roves.

Not much really happens in Japan. H3 debuts successfully.

[Bubbinski]

Okay, here goes:

Starship first orbital launch happens in March. Goes successfully until the final descent/soft landing process which isn’t so soft due to some reentry damage. By end of year 4 orbital flights are made.

Artemis-1 launches in May. Successful flight of SLS/Orion, with some issues noted that will need to be fixed before crew can fly on Artemis-2.

The James Webb Space Telescope successfully goes through its deployment sequence and all the effort over the years pays off with a successful instrument calibration and initial science. Hints of a groundbreaking discovery begin to show up in unofficial chatter by the end of the year.

SpaceX launches 36 F9/FH missions, including 4 Falcon Heavy missions.

Psyche and JUICE missions launch successfully during their windows.

Vulcan and Ariane 6 first flights pushed into early 2023.

Late in 2022 Blue Origin finally delivers flight engines to ULA.

New Glenn unofficially pushed back to 2026.

New Shepard flies three times with crew and twice with cargo, but some issues with the system cause the cadence to not be any higher.

Virgin Galactic finally flies SS2 again late in the year. Tourist flights pushed to 2023.

A few space tourists switch from orbital to suborbital flights due to debris concerns from the Russian ASAT test.

The Russian ASAT test debris forces a great deal of replanning of ISS missions and activities as well as activities of other LEO spacecraft. ISS itself escapes unscathed but at least one other important spacecraft is damaged by this debris. By end of year an official push for an ASAT test ban treaty starts. However, the ISS future is clouded and unofficial plans to move up its replacement (in a different orbit, with more shielding) are quietly started.

Despite this, science on ISS will be part of a major promising discovery, which will be followed up aboard ISS and other space stations in the future.

Boeing Starliner OFT-2 pushed to early 2023 due to major valve redesign.

At least ten crewed space flights (suborbital and orbital) are made in 2022. However, at least one major mishap will occur that would lead to an Apollo 13 type situation or worse. This will impact multiple programs and future timelines, though it will not halt all activity as human spaceflight has more alternatives and more resilience than in 1986 or 2003.

China will launch its pair of modules but not everything goes swimmingly for the station program in the following months as flight problems plus threats on the ground (war, economic crisis due to Evergrande) take their toll.

One world hotspot erupts into all out war and causes serious problems with spaceflight and the world economy. The US is affected less than others, but there are still problems resulting even here.

By end of year COVID pandemic FINALLY starts to show signs of abating, though progress is uneven. NASA and other agencies are able to function normally, more or less.

India successfully lands Chandrayaan-3 on the Moon and its rover works. By end of year first Gaganyaan test flight launches.

ExoMars launches successfully and heads off to the Red Planet.

A major discovery is made by Perseverance that will rewrite textbooks. Curiosity also finds something remarkable that will be part of that discovery.

Astra will start operational flights by end of year after successful tests. So will Firefly.

Relativity first flight fails but will reach orbit by end of year.

Rocketlab flies six times, COVID restrictions have some effect on flight cadence. But by end of year Wallops launch site finally cleared to fly and first Electron stage successfully recovered by helicopter.

On a personal level, I’ll finally make a long awaited launch trip. And I’ll build at least one spaceflight related model.

[TrevorMonty]

Rocketlab flies six times, COVID restrictions have some effect on flight cadence. But by end of year Wallops launch site finally cleared to fly and first Electron stage successfully recovered by helicopter.

There won't be anymore lockdowns now that COVID is here to stay and most of population is vaccinated. There maybe restrictions but not likely to effect RL. Restriction on non residents entering country could effect some launches especially Capstone's engineers.






Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

[Endeavour_01]

So before I made my predictions for the coming year I decided to revisit the predictions I made 5 years ago about 2022. Fair to say a good number of them have or are very likely to come true. The two big misses were on SLS (too optimistic) and Starship (too pessimistic).

So what will be happening in human spaceflight in 2022, five years from now?

Commercial Crew vehicles will be conducting regular crew rotation flights to the ISS.

SpaceX (and possibly Boeing) will fly one tourist flight to LEO (or perhaps around the moon) a year.

ISS extended to at least 2026. Likely 2028.

Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic will be flying regular sub-orbital tourism flights.

SLS/Orion will be gearing up for the EM-2 flight. DSG and a reusable manned crewed lunar lander are under development.

SpaceX will have made good progress on BFR but are years away from a first flight.

So with that background here are my predictions for the coming year.

1. Artemis I lifts off in April 2022. Mission is a success.

2. Starliner flies OFT-2 successfully in H2 of 2022 but does not fly CFT in 2022.

3. First orbital flight of Starship/Super Heavy occurs H1 of 2022. Starship successfully reaches orbit.

4. Crew for Artemis II is announced after the completion of Artemis I. One of the crewmembers will be CSA Astronaut Jeremy Hansen.

5. SpaceX continues regular crew rotation flights to ISS and adds more commercial astronaut missions to the manifest.

6. Blue Origin continues to lobby Congress to force NASA to add a second HLS contract ASAP.

7. New Glenn and Ariane 6 do not debut in 2022. Vulcan debuts in 2022 but just barely.

8. The NASASpaceflight.com store will add shirts for "Resilience", "Endurance", and the to be named Crew-4 Dragon so I can have a complete set of shirts for each Crew Dragon in the fleet. (please  )

[Scintillant]

Astra reaches orbit at least once before the end of H1 2022.

Prediction fulfilled!

[high road]

None of the upcoming big rockets launch a payload in 2022 (SLS, Ariane 6, Vulcan, New Glenn, Starship). I'm specifically saying 'payload', as I do expect Starship launches, but all for testing technology.

Oldspace (Arianespace, ULA, ye olde smallsat launchers, non-Soyuz Russian launchers) continues to launch at the current all time low they have been in since before Covid. The rising tide of the space industry is not lifting their boats. I'm excluding Arianespace selling Soyuz launches to constellations that rather not pay a competitor for launches.

SLS continues to run into unforeseen issues, next to issues foreseen by the IGO.

[Tywin]

Vulcan debut in middle 2022...


CLPS is a success with her landers...


New Glenn real rocket is seeing, and ready but debut in early 2023...


SLS launch in summer 2022...


Starship doesn't reach orbit in 2022...


Rivian and Tesla fight for the Moon rover for NASA...


Nasa approves a second lander for the HLS program...


Ariane 6 debut late 2022...


Astra success 12 launches in 2022...


Rocket Lab, launch with success Capstone...


ESA approve a mission to return material from ice moons...


Russia launches the Angara a few times...


ISRO approve her LEO, space station for the late decade...


Chandrayaan 3 success...


Dream Chaser doesn't launch in 2022...


The Artemis program gets more funded...


Firefly success and launch 3 times to orbit...


Relativity success and go to orbit in the first semester...


Rocket Lab, have a failure...

[Eric Hedman]

Artemis I
   Launches Q1 –
      Discover a few fixable issues for Artemis II
      Crew of Artemis II announced shortly after mission

Starship / Heavy
   Orbital Test Flight Jan 2022 Before SLS
      Booster crashes on Mechazilla landing / catch attempt
         Damage to tower and Mechazilla delays next test to Q3

      Starship successful ocean landing / sink off the coast of Hawaii
         Has some heat shield issues that need fixing before flight two

   Second test flight Q3
      Mechazilla successfully catches booster
      Starship second successful ocean landing / sinking

   Third Test flight Q4
      Heavy Booster caught by Mechazilla
      Starship lands on pad in Boca Chica

   First in orbit refueling test pushed off to NET 2023

Falcon-9
   All missions complete success

James Webb
   Deploys correctly.  Fully operational by end of year.

Hubble Space Telescope
   Fails for good by year end.

United Launch Alliance
   Gets BE-4 flight engines by end of March

Vulcan launch success in Q4
   All other launches successful

Blue Origin
   New Shepherd
      8 to 12 commercial flights

   New Glenn
      First stage with flight engines rolled to pad in Q4
         Fit checks, test electrical connections, etc.

      Second Stage
         Expendable
            Not seen in 2022

         Reusable Roadmap revealed
            Cargo version
            Tanker Version
            Crewed Version
               Crew size of ten to twelve
                  To support larger crews on Orbital Reef
               Winged landing – Shuttle landing strip
                  Small light wings compared to STS

   Orbital Reef
      Significant redesign from first graphics

   Blue Moon
      Congress does not add funds to fully support second lander
         Blue continues at slower pace with National Team

Virgin Galactic
   No longer Care

Boeing
   CST-100 OFT-2 flight in early Q3 successful
   Crewed mission pushed to 2023

Gateway
   Stays on schedule for 2024 launch 2025 arrival

Will still miss the way Jim Bridenstine was the face of NASA

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>
Starship / Heavy
   Orbital Test Flight Jan 2022 Before SLS
      Booster crashes on Mechazilla landing / catch attempt
         Damage to tower and Mechazilla delays next test to Q3
<snip>

IIRC the first Super Heavy is suppose to be landing on the ocean like the early Falcon 9 landing attempts. 

[Eric Hedman]

<snip>
Starship / Heavy
   Orbital Test Flight Jan 2022 Before SLS
      Booster crashes on Mechazilla landing / catch attempt
         Damage to tower and Mechazilla delays next test to Q3
<snip>

IIRC the first Super Heavy is suppose to be landing on the ocean like the early Falcon 9 landing attempts. 

Last year I had a prediction proven right before the start of the year.  This year I get one wrong immediately.

fixed.

[FishInferno]

Obligatory don't take this seriously you know the drill.


2022:

SLS does not fly in 2022.

Starship makes an orbital launch in H1 2022, making it through MECO but something goes wrong after that.

Starship successfully makes it to orbit by the end of the year. No orbital refueling tests.

Elon Musk announces a stripped-down, expendable upper stage for Starship that will be used to launch Starlink satellites. This comes amidst challenges getting Starships to survive reentry.

The first flight BE-4s are delivered to ULA and Vulcan is fully integrated but does not fly in 2022.

Relativity Space makes a launch attempt but it is not successful.

Prototype components for Terran R are showcased in a press release.

Rocket Lab successfully reuses an Electron by year's end. The first helicopter catch attempt, however, will fail due to problems with the helicopter (nobody is hurt).

Archimedes engine does not fire in 2022.

Firefly makes it to orbit.

At least one smallsat launch company with significant hardware completed will shut down due to a lack of revenue.

Blue Origin announces either:
a) a redesigned, reusable Blue Moon with intentions to self-fund initial flights
b) a completely unrelated project (crewed capsule, space tug, etc.)

Virgin Galactic does not fly commercial customers in 2022.



Long-term (~10yrs):

A Starship (uncrewed) successfully lands on Mars before the end of the decade.

SpaceX announces their crewed Mars mission without NASA's involvement, but publicly states that NASA is welcome to send a couple of their astronauts at no cost to the taxpayer. Political shenanigans ensue, but NASA eventually accepts this invitation.

The Department of Defense pays SpaceX an obscene amount of money to build two Starship launch sites in the western US (probably Nevada) for their exclusive use.

Starship has terrestrial launch sites at Starbase, Cape Canaveral, and Nova Scotia. Floating launch platforms are based in Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Puerto Rico.

SpaceX's headquarters is now in Austin, TX. Their Hawthorne facility is now primarily used to train crew/passengers.

SLS flies three times before its cancellation.

Gateway is partially completed before being abandoned in favor of a direct Orion-Starship (later completely Starship) architecture.

Virgin Galactic never flies tourists.

Relativity Space successfully makes it to orbit, but is later acquired by another aerospace company for their 3D printing technology, which will be used in niche applications but not for the entire vehicle.

Neutron successfully flies and achieves reusability, but never attracts the business Rocket Lab hopes. However, Neutron's technical success will prompt investors to fund Rocket Lab's development of a true Starship competitor, Proton.

New Glenn does not fly before 2026. By this time, Project Jarvis has completely replaced the expendable upper stage.

The Axiom Station is built (albeit a couple years late), but the end result is significantly larger as later modules are sized for launch on Starship.

Before 2030, China launches a crewed Lunar orbit mission.

Japan begins earnest work on a Starship competitor, but it does not fly before 2030.

Roscosmos and China start cooperating more, with cosmonauts visiting the Tiangong station. By the end of the decade NASA and Roscosmos barely have a relationship.

India successfully launches crew. NASA and ESA eagerly incorporate them into future missions.

[Jrcraft]

USA:
 SpaceX's F9 and FH all succeed in their missions, but a booster or two don't land
SS F1 fails either during first stage flight, coast phase, or entry.

Rocketlab: Electron suffers an anomaly. they recover a few boosters, but don't fly a used one until next year.

VG, flies people near end of year

BO, We see the first NG take shape, NS flies 7 crewed flights, and 2-3 research flights.

Firefly reaches orbit on next flight, Stage two isn't entirely nominal though.

Relativity's first launch ends with first stage failure around max-q.

Astra launches 8 times, fails at least once.

VO flies all missions as intended

SLS/Artemis I works flawlessly in an April launch, very minor Orion issues, nothing critical.

Axiom station delayed

We get a surprise Pegasus launch

JWST deploys fine, but some deployment get delayed.

Russia
All flights are nominal, Angara caries first live payload.

A Soyuz or progress has to be manually docked.

China

A long march 3b failure

Another small solid rocket fails in flight.

New CSS modules fly, but a bit later than planned.

India

Flies less missions than are scheduled, as per usual.

We see SSLV launch.

ESA

Vega C launches.

All launches are a success.

Japan

H3 launches successfully

OMOTENASHI fails to land

Iran
two surprise launches, one fails.

Israel

No launches of the year besides suborbital missiles.

North Korea
No launches of the year

South Korea
KSLV-II succeeds.

[freddo411]

Predictions for 2022 include a couple of carryovers from 2021 as well as some new, great expectations

Predictions from 2021 turned out 18/27.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2161688#msg2161688


2022 Predictions


1* SLS attempts it's very first launch in 2022   

2* Ariane does not field a reusable rocket.

3* ULA does not field a reusable rocket.

4* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket

5* Boeing Starliner will not complete crew certification in 2022

6* 50 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO. (No dear moon)

7* A Starship stack launches high enough and fast enough to test it's heat shield.  (wrong)

8* Falcon Heavy flies (again)

9* Crew Dragon flies at least once (again).

10* Falcon 9 continues to fly more than Atlas V.  Falcon 9 reliability in 2021 is as perfect as Atlas V's.

11* SX flies more orbital launches than any other year. (31 is the previous record)

12* SX flies more (NASA astronauts + Dragon riders) than any other nation does in 2022 .

13* Over 500,000+ Starlink terminals operating by end of 2021.   Equivalent to over 1/2 a billion dollar a year revenue stream.

14* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 4 times

15* A successful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

16* An unsuccessful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

17* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem (again)

18* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government

19* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.

20* Ariane launches 7 or fewer rockets ( not including VEGA or soyuz)

21* China successfully flies an impressive mission that provides some Chinese firsts

[woods170]

I predict there will be a “predictions 2023” thread before 2022 is out.






(ducks and runs...)

[libra]

Nauka and Webb will suffer more delays and their launches will be pushed again AT HORRIBLE EXPENSE - as they have been since my high school days of 1996

...

 (which also happened to be Ariane 5 (unfortunate) beginnings... Webb bracketed that booster entire lifespan; launch 1 to launch 112, only 5 left !)

...

wait

...

Nope, THEY HAVE LAUNCHED IN 2021

...

Except they seemingly left their jinx on Earth solid ground, and the two jinxes coalesced into Boeing Starliner... will Boeing need 25 years to fix their damn capsule ? We shall see... in 2046 !!!

[libra]

Predictions for 2022 include a couple of carryovers from 2021 as well as some new, great expectations

Predictions from 2021 turned out 18/27.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2161688#msg2161688


2022 Predictions


1* SLS attempts it's very first launch in 2022   

2* Ariane does not field a reusable rocket.

3* ULA does not field a reusable rocket.

4* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket

5* Boeing Starliner will not complete crew certification in 2022

6* 50 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO. (No dear moon)

7* A Starship stack launches high enough and fast enough to test it's heat shield.

8* Falcon Heavy flies (again)

9* Crew Dragon flies at least once (again).

10* Falcon 9 continues to fly more than Atlas V.  Falcon 9 reliability in 2021 is as perfect as Atlas V's.

11* SX flies more orbital launches than any other year. (31 is the previous record)

12* SX flies more (NASA astronauts + Dragon riders) than any other nation does in 2022 .

13* Over 500,000+ Starlink terminals operating by end of 2021.   Equivalent to over 1/2 a billion dollar a year revenue stream.

14* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 4 times

15* A successful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

16* An unsuccessful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

17* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem (again)

18* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government

19* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.

20* Ariane launches 7 or fewer rockets ( not including VEGA or soyuz)

21* China successfully flies an impressive mission that provides some Chinese firsts

Raptor doesn't work, Starlink saturates, Musk say a stupid thing on Twitter because Ambien, one Falcon 9 explodes, SpaceX go bankrupt, Europe laugh its a$$ off... 

[eric z]

 I predict when JWST finally gets all-warmed up, oops, I mean chilled down, in the farthest reaches it will see a sign that says "Kilroy was here".

[AmigaClone]

My predictions for 2022.

At least one of the following gets its first orbital launch (or in the case of Starliner 'first crewed orbital launch') delayed to 2023 or later. Also, at least one of those in the list below, that is launched, has a less than successful mission (as defined by the launch provider.)

Arianespace's Ariane 6
Blue Origin's New Glenn
SpaceX's Starship
United Launch Alliance Vulcan-Centaur
SLS
First launch of the Gaganyaan 1 capsule preparing for future crewed flights from India.
Boeing Starliner crewed test

At least one company that has successfully launched an orbital launch vehicle by the end of 2021 is projected by the end of June to set a new company record in terms of successful launches. That same company would fail to meet those mid-year expectations.

At least one launch vehicle that has more than 20 consecutive successful launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload.

SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 booster on landing.

A Falcon 9 booster will reach 15 landings.

Blue Origin will sue someone.

More than one topic started after January first 2022 will be completely off topic within a month.

[Vahe231991]

- Russia lands Cosmonauts on the moon. while on the moon, the Cosmonauts try to get into the Tesla lunar Cybertruck, sentry mode flashes at them recording everything. hehe Cosmonauts featured on WHAMBAM.

The space plan by Roscosmos for 2022 doesn't include landing people on the Moon, but the Luna 25 will be the first Russian lunar probe to land on the Moon since the USSR's collapse 30 years ago.

[DeanG1967]

My prediction

1.  99.999% of the people posting here will NOT read other peoples predictions (Yep, I am in this group)

2.  There will be some launches

3.  There will be mostly successes but some failures

4.  I will be awarded the prize for the most accurate predictions of 2022

[Orbiter]

JWST deploys nominally without incident. First pictures back blow our minds.

SpaceX experiences a failure on the first orbital attempt with Starship. Booster 4 and Ship 20 do not fly the first orbital attempt.

The usual F9 launches. Three FH missions in 2022 - the rest are pushed off into 2023. Pysche launches and goes well.

ULA does not launch Vulcan in 2022.

SLS launches in May 2022 after a few scrubs. Rollout for WDR pushes back to February. Overall mission is successful. Shuttle fans rejoice seeing SRBs and SSMEs light up the space coast again. Artemis II crew named for a mid-2024 launch date.

Starliner OFT-2 flies in July. CFT-1 flies in November (could be pushed to 2023).

[spacenut]

Raptor doesn't work, Starlink saturates, Musk say a stupid thing on Twitter because Ambien, one Falcon 9 explodes, SpaceX go bankrupt, Europe laugh its a$$ off... 

You must hate Elon Musk.  Raptor already works, Musk just wants more thrust out of it, make it more simple, and less costly.  Same thing he did with Merlin.  Musk will not allow SpaceX to go bankrupt.  He will sell off his Tesla sharses to save it.  His one goal in life is to get to Mars.  Starlink is going to pay for that.  Think why he is into Tesla, The Boring Company, and SpaceX.  Tesla electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels can be used on Mars.  Boring can be used to build cities underground to avoid radiation on Mars.  Then SpaceX will get the equipment there.  Even his brother using shipping containers grows food.  This is being proven out so food can be grown this way on Mars.  It all comes together on Mars.

I don't like to make predictions because I don't know as much about the other companies or there are a lot of unknowns that could affect anything space related.  Another Covid variant maybe, or stressful foreign tensions, or hyperinflation due to excess government spending.   

[Kaputnik]

SLS flies in H2, successful.
Starship flies in H2, does not make orbit.
Starliner flies, Boeing and NASA spend the rest of the year arguing about whether they can proceed to a crewed flight.

Each of the above flies just once in 2022.

[Eric Hedman]

My prediction

1.  99.999% of the people posting here will NOT read other peoples predictions (Yep, I am in this group)

2.  There will be some launches

3.  There will be mostly successes but some failures

4.  I will be awarded the prize for the most accurate predictions of 2022

I read other people's predictions including yours.  So for you to be right a 100,000 people will have to come on here and just post without reading anything. Edit - When this thread gets to 100,000 posts for every view, let me know.

[Lar]

My predictions for 2022.. somewhat rehashed from 2021, which were rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2021:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2172722#msg2172722
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52085.msg2326071#msg2326071
2020:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2031118#msg2031118
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2172520#msg2172520
2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

2022 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 22 (up from 20 last year) flights, I guessed 42 in the poll: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55469.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (same as last year, they didn't)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (same as last year, they made it)
- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered at least one of those times (lost two years in a row, this year I will win. Maybe. Maybe just half. There are several on the manifest.)
- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return. (Booster 4, Ship 20 or some followon pair will have a successful demo flight)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (20 saw FAA opening RFC, this will continue)
- Starlink ) constellation will see at least another 800 satellites launched (this is lowball actually, up from 600)
- Starlink Beta will expand to include 2x or more customers but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers.. changed from area to customers)
- At least 1 Starlink satellite will be released by a Starship into orbit by end of year. (this requires them making orbit and solving cargo hatches... could happen)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and will be serious tunneling on more than one project at once. Vegas initial boring project completed, operational and work proceeding on route/system expansion. At least one other project will be underway somewhere. There will be new TBMs that are refinements of what did the Vegas work. (repeat of last year)
- Dragon launched passengers last year, twice. This year there will be more Dragon crew launched than Starliner crew (as last year).
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last four years)
- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 80% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 8 fairing halves will be reused successfully. (up from 75% and 6 reused fairing halves)
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration (probably gonna lose this one, did two years in a row)
- There will be no significant name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020 (went with no, won last year after losing 2 yes predictions in a row)
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc) (repeat. cmon, anything??) by SpaceX
- by some credible third party (Bechtel, Caterpillar... you get the idea)

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2022 (repeat... maybe this year?)
- Boeing will be credibly alleged to have done some skullduggery of some sort. (too easy but I can't help myself)

- Enough with the detailed ULA picks about IVF/Centaur!!! I give up. This year ULA does nothing to advance either of these. (won last year betting they do nothing)
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (threepeat, and still kind of a gimme)
- ULA will have at least one launch campaign that scrubs 5 or more times before a successful (or otherwise) launch (this is a hard one to judge)

- Blue will launch New Shepard more than 4 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (I think they're picking up steam)
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat, gimme)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- Artemis will make progress but the first crewed lunar landing slips at least a year from what it was predicted to be on Jan 1 2021

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 7 times. At least 5 launches will be a success. (lost last year with 8/6)
- By year end there will be at least 3 Electron recoveries that were at least partially successful, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (up from 2 last year which I won)
- by year end

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2021 again (they did last year)
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (fourpeat of last year...  finally won it)
- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (threepeat. no customers yet but not mothballed)

- Voyager will announce at least one more surprise acquisition beyond Nanoracks (repeat of last year)

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL). (repeat of last year)

- Astra will end the year with their stock price below their SPAC-IPO but will not yet be bankrupt.

[Danderman]

Starship will have enough problems so that not many people will believe the near term predictions of landing on the Moon or Mars soon. Starship development will be a long slog, much like development of the reusable Falcon 9 first stage.

[Vahe231991]

- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (threepeat. no customers yet but not mothballed)

The Model 351 Roc made its third flight last month and one day, either Virgin Galactic or Axiom Aerospace could pay from launches from the Model 351 involving the LauncherOne or another air-launched rocket.

[envy887]

- Starlink Beta will expand to include 2x or more customers but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers.. changed from area to customers)

Starlink said they were leaving beta and also scrubbed all references to the beta program from the website last October, so I think you missed this prediction before you even made it.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/starlink-website-nixes-beta-wording-warns-chip-shortage-is-delaying-orders

[Vahe231991]

SLS flies in H2, successful.
Starship flies in H2, does not make orbit.
Starliner flies, Boeing and NASA spend the rest of the year arguing about whether they can proceed to a crewed flight.

Each of the above flies just once in 2022.

After having successfully completed its wet dress rehearsal testing, the SLS is increasingly becoming very likely to carry out its first launch this year, with NASA leaning towards a late August/early September launch window. The OFT-2 mission of the Boeing Starliner met all objectives, and Boeing and NASA are in the process of finding a precise date in the second half of this year for the first manned mission of the Boeing Starliner.

[Zed_Noir]

..... Tesla will unveil a rover prototype ..... (repeat of last four years)

With it's unveiling at the upcoming Tesla A.I. day 2. Technically the TeslaBot could be consider a rover unit. Just have to dress it up in a protective suit. 

[Vahe231991]

I suddenly noticed that there is already a thread dealing with fulfilled and unfulfilled predictions for spaceflight in 2022:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43979.0

Maybe someone can merge these two threads together.

[freddo411]

I suddenly noticed that there is already a thread dealing with fulfilled and unfulfilled predictions for spaceflight in 2022:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43979.0

Maybe someone can merge these two threads together.

Despite the confusing similar thread names, that thread is predictions from 2017 for 5 years in the future (2022).   

Not the same topic.  Please don’t merge

(ADMINS:  requesting a thread title edit to deconflict these two threads)

[AmigaClone]

Forgot to do a mid-year update, so doing it now. Comments in the quotes are different colors (green for correct prediction, orange for possible, blue for a comment or explanation, red for a miss).

My predictions for 2022.

I got part of the first prediction correct with Ariane 6, New Glenn, Gaganyaan 1, and Starliner crewed demo mission all seeing their first orbital launch delayed to 2023.

At least one of the following gets its first orbital launch (or in the case of Starliner 'first crewed orbital launch') delayed to 2023 or later. Also, at least one of those in the list below, that is launched, has a less than successful mission (as defined by the launch provider.)

Arianespace's Ariane 6 - ESA since June 2022 has been targeting first Ariane 6 launch in 2023

Blue Origin's New Glenn - Blue Origin admitted their first launch would not be before 2023

SpaceX's Starship - Possible (likely) launch in 2022

United Launch Alliance Vulcan-Centaur - Launch NET December 2022

SLS - Launch scheduled between August 29 and September 3 2022

First launch of the Gaganyaan 1 capsule preparing for future crewed flights from India. Delayed to 2023

Boeing Starliner crewed test - Launch NET January 2023

At least one company that has successfully launched an orbital launch vehicle by the end of 2021 is projected by the end of June to set a new company record in terms of successful launches. SpaceX's Falcon 9 beat its launch record set in 2021 of 31 launches in 29 weeks.  That same company would fail to meet those mid-year expectations. To early to tell about this one. Could be close.

At least one launch vehicle that has more than 20 consecutive successful launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload. While not a launch failure, on Feb 3 SpaceX deployed 49 Starlink satellites. Due to a solar storm hitting Earth Feb 4, 38 if those satellites were brought down by atmospheric drag.Could otherwise still happen.

SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 booster on landing. This was not intended to count boosters intentionally expended. While a booster loss could still happen, currently 60+ consecutive booster landings going back to 2021 since last landing failure.

A Falcon 9 booster will reach 15 landings. Three boosters are at 13 landings, two have reached 10 landings by mid August. Goal still possible to reach in 2022.

Blue Origin will sue someone. Could still happen.

More than one topic started after January first 2022 will be completely off topic within a month of being started. Gimme.

So far, I still could get 100% of my predictions correct, depending on certain interpretations.

[scienceguy]

Time to see how I did

Starship sent to Mars

Way off. What was I thinking?

SpaceX transports crew to the ISS at least 3 times

This happened

SLS continues to be delayed

Wrong. SLS flew.

NASA Perseverance rover finds evidence of organic molecules

This didn't happen.

Rocket lab reaches orbit at least once

This happened

Virgin Galactic continues to take tourists into space

Wow was this ever off

An exomoon is discovered

I don't know why I keep predicting this. It might be actually 10 years away

Earth-sized planet less than 40 light years away found with nitrogen in its atmosphere

Nope.

Another Earth-size planet found in the habitable zone of a star less than 20 light years away

There are some in the habitable zone less than 20 light years away, but none found this year.

Water vapor found in the atmosphere of Callisto

Wrong.

India continues its space program with no major setbacks

Yes, this happened

China continues work on space station with no major setbacks

Yes, this happened.

Well, I got 4/12 this year.

[edzieba]

Selling yourself short for some of those:

NASA Perseverance rover finds evidence of organic molecules

This didn't happen.

Nov 2022

An exomoon is discovered

I don't know why I keep predicting this. It might be actually 10 years away

Jan 2022 (but awaiting observations with other telescopes starting next year to verify).

Earth-sized planet less than 40 light years away found with nitrogen in its atmosphere

Nope.

Maybe partial credit? JWST observation campaigns for many such exoplanets have completed, but nothing published yet.

[jebbo]

An exomoon is discovered

I don't know why I keep predicting this. It might be actually 10 years away

Jan 2022 (but awaiting observations with other telescopes starting next year to verify).

Kipping is a great proponent for exomoons, but I remain sceptical and would agree with the "within 10 years" projection.

--- Tony

[Bubbinski]

Okay, here goes:

Starship first orbital launch happens in March. Goes successfully until the final descent/soft landing process which isn’t so soft due to some reentry damage. By end of year 4 orbital flights are made.

WRONG. I was WAY too optimistic on that. They were nowhere near ready.

Artemis-1 launches in May. Successful flight of SLS/Orion, with some issues noted that will need to be fixed before crew can fly on Artemis-2.

HALF RIGHT. Artemis I launched in 2022….but on November 16th.

The James Webb Space Telescope successfully goes through its deployment sequence and all the effort over the years pays off with a successful instrument calibration and initial science. Hints of a groundbreaking discovery begin to show up in unofficial chatter by the end of the year.

RIGHT. Looking forward to 20 years of groundbreaking discoveries.

SpaceX launches 36 F9/FH missions, including 4 Falcon Heavy missions.

HALF RIGHT. I was WAY too conservative on F9. And too optimistic on FH. They got 36 F9 flights….and a lot more after that! (Total for F9/FH: 61)

Psyche and JUICE missions launch successfully during their windows.

WRONG. Both pushed to 2023.

Vulcan and Ariane 6 first flights pushed into early 2023.

RIGHT. And A6 will go further than that.

Late in 2022 Blue Origin finally delivers flight engines to ULA.

RIGHT.

New Glenn unofficially pushed back to 2026.

HALF RIGHT. Latest talk is 2024.

New Shepard flies three times with crew and twice with cargo, but some issues with the system cause the cadence to not be any higher.

HALF RIGHT. 4 NS flights, 3 with crew. And launch failure with abort in September.

Virgin Galactic finally flies SS2 again late in the year. Tourist flights pushed to 2023.

HALF RIGHT. No SS2 flights. But tourist flights pushed back.

A few space tourists switch from orbital to suborbital flights due to debris concerns from the Russian ASAT test.

WRONG. No evidence of this.

The Russian ASAT test debris forces a great deal of replanning of ISS missions and activities as well as activities of other LEO spacecraft. ISS itself escapes unscathed but at least one other important spacecraft is damaged by this debris. By end of year an official push for an ASAT test ban treaty starts. However, the ISS future is clouded and unofficial plans to move up its replacement (in a different orbit, with more shielding) are quietly started.

HALF RIGHT. Soyuz MS-22 damage might be a result of MMOD. No test ban treaty push as far as I know. MMOD increasing concern for ISS program.

Despite this, science on ISS will be part of a major promising discovery, which will be followed up aboard ISS and other space stations in the future.

WRONG. Haven’t yet seen whispers of any major discovery, but I have no doubt it will happen in time.

Boeing Starliner OFT-2 pushed to early 2023 due to major valve redesign.

WRONG. OFT-2 flew successfully.

At least ten crewed space flights (suborbital and orbital) are made in 2022. However, at least one major mishap will occur that would lead to an Apollo 13 type situation or worse. This will impact multiple programs and future timelines, though it will not halt all activity as human spaceflight has more alternatives and more resilience than in 1986 or 2003.

HALF RIGHT. 10 crew flights for 2022 indeed. (2 Soyuz, 3 Dragon, 2 Shenzhou, 3 New Shepard). No Apollo 13 situation, but Soyuz MS-22 debris hit could lead to one if ISS has to be evacuated.

China will launch its pair of modules but not everything goes swimmingly for the station program in the following months as flight problems plus threats on the ground (war, economic crisis due to Evergrande) take their toll.

HALF RIGHT. Station modules were launched, no flight problems as far as I know. Zero COVID and mass protests did happen, but seems not to have affected Chinese program.

One world hotspot erupts into all out war and causes serious problems with spaceflight and the world economy. The US is affected less than others, but there are still problems resulting even here.

RIGHT. February 24, 2022. Ukraine.

By end of year COVID pandemic FINALLY starts to show signs of abating, though progress is uneven. NASA and other agencies are able to function normally, more or less.

HALF RIGHT. COVID problems in China, but NASA is back to normal.

India successfully lands Chandrayaan-3 on the Moon and its rover works. By end of year first Gaganyaan test flight launches.

WRONG. India’s program still suffered from COVID effects.

ExoMars launches successfully and heads off to the Red Planet.

WRONG. Another effect of the Ukraine War.

A major discovery is made by Perseverance that will rewrite textbooks. Curiosity also finds something remarkable that will be part of that discovery.

HALF RIGHT. They’ve made discoveries….not yet of the kind I was thinking about.

Astra will start operational flights by end of year after successful tests. So will Firefly.

HALF RIGHT. Firefly made it to orbit. But no operational flights. As far as Astra, the less said the better.

Relativity first flight fails but will reach orbit by end of year.

WRONG. They haven’t flown yet.

Rocketlab flies six times, COVID restrictions have some effect on flight cadence. But by end of year Wallops launch site finally cleared to fly and first Electron stage successfully recovered by helicopter.

HALF RIGHT. Rocketlab got 9 launches. Wallops is indeed cleared to fly. Electron stage recovered by boat after chopper had to drop it.

On a personal level, I’ll finally make a long awaited launch trip. And I’ll build at least one spaceflight related model.

RIGHT. But to Vandenberg, not the Cape. Last D4H West Coast launch. And built the Convair space shuttle concept by Atlantis. (Drawn up by Krafft Ehricke).

[Eric Hedman]

Artemis I
   Launches Q1 –
      Discover a few fixable issues for Artemis II
      Crew of Artemis II announced shortly after mission

        0/1 - Wrong

Starship / Heavy
   Orbital Test Flight Jan 2022 Before SLS
      Booster crashes on Mechazilla landing / catch attempt
         Damage to tower and Mechazilla delays next test to Q3

      Starship successful ocean landing / sink off the coast of Hawaii
         Has some heat shield issues that need fixing before flight two
        0/2 - Wrong

   Second test flight Q3
      Mechazilla successfully catches booster
      Starship second successful ocean landing / sinking
        0/3 - Wrong

   Third Test flight Q4
      Heavy Booster caught by Mechazilla
      Starship lands on pad in Boca Chica
        0/4 - Wrong

   First in orbit refueling test pushed off to NET 2023


Falcon-9
   All missions complete success
        1/5 - Right

James Webb
   Deploys correctly.  Fully operational by end of year.
        2/6 - Right

Hubble Space Telescope
   Fails for good by year end.
        2/7 Wrong - glad I was wrong about this

United Launch Alliance
   Gets BE-4 flight engines by end of March
        2/8  - Wrong - Blue is always slow

Vulcan launch success in Q4
   All other launches successful
        2/9 - Wrong - Blue is always slow

Blue Origin
   New Shepherd
      8 to 12 commercial flights
        2/10 Wrong - didn't see abort coming throwing wrench into operations

   New Glenn
      First stage with flight engines rolled to pad in Q4
         Fit checks, test electrical connections, etc.
        2/11 Wrong - Always slow

      Second Stage
         Expendable
            Not seen in 2022
        3/11 Right - Kind of

         Reusable Roadmap revealed
            Cargo version
            Tanker Version
            Crewed Version
               Crew size of ten to twelve
                  To support larger crews on Orbital Reef
               Winged landing – Shuttle landing strip
                  Small light wings compared to STS
        3/12 - Wrong - Blue is still slow and not transparent

   Orbital Reef
      Significant redesign from first graphics
        3/13 - Wrong - nothing so far

   Blue Moon
      Congress does not add funds to fully support second lander
         Blue continues at slower pace with National Team
        3/14  - Wrong - There is funding for second HLS team to get started

Virgin Galactic
   No longer Care
        4/15 - Right - I still don't care

Boeing
   CST-100 OFT-2 flight in early Q3 successful
   Crewed mission pushed to 2023
        4/16 wrong  - flight was ion Q2

Gateway
   Stays on schedule for 2024 launch 2025 arrival
        5/17 right - I think it still is NET Nov 2024

Will still miss the way Jim Bridenstine was the face of NASA
        6/18 Right - At least I miss the was Jim Bridenstine engaged with the public
                           Bill Nelson I will admit is better than I thought he would be.

I was too optimistic on schedules.  Time to get my wild guesses for 2023 in.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

On January 1st, 2022, I tweeted a set of polls and wanted to see how well we in the spaceflight community could predict what would happen in the year forward. You did pretty decent this year! Want to participate next year? Here's the links to 2023's polls!

Twitter - https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/1609557794650202112
Survey Monkey - https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BT29GL5

And here were last year's polls so you can play along and see how you did! - https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/st...