Author Topic: Predictions 2021  (Read 33056 times)

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2021
« Reply #100 on: 12/13/2021 10:23 pm »
Year end Review:

Predictions 2021

Space Tourism
   Space Tourism will finally actually start by the end of this millennium (sarcasm)
        Blue Origin  (everything two years later than my predictions for 2019)
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4

        Close Enough (1 for 1)

        Virgin Galactic
                Another delay from test flight that failed
            Richard Branson takes flight in Q3
                First tourist flight in Q4

        Not exactly
        +0.5  (1.5 for 2)

Commercial Crew
                Has a good year with all missions successful
        Pretty much right
        +1.0  (2.5 for 3)

            Unmanned test flight will discover new issues delaying crewed test flight
                Crewed test flight pushed to Q4 2021 and successful

        Problem with valves discovered before flight and delay longer than to Q4
       +0.0  (2.5 for 4)

        Green run discovers a few issues to clean up
        Stays enough on schedule for 2021 Q4 launch

        Too optimistic on timeline
        +0.0  (2.5 for 5)

        Artemis 1 flight successful by end of 2021
   Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut)
   Artemis 3 plan changes to mission to Gateway only.  First landing moved to Artemis 6 or 7

        Too optimistic on timeline
        +0.0 (2.5 for 6)

        Falcon 9 perfect record again
      Starlink deployment continues successfully with subscriptions steadily increasing
      Dragon - See above
        Close enough
        +1.0 (3.5 for 7)

                Steady development, but slower than expected
         Lunar Starship development slows since NASA didn't get budget request
         Heat shield issues take longer than expected to resolve
         Another prototype before successful landing

        Close enough
        +1.0 (4.5 for 8)

      Super Heavy
         Flies several times, but not with Starship in 2021
        Too optimistic on timeline
        +1.0 (4.5 for 9)

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                Launch pad for New Glenn completed
      First launch pushed to 2022
      Blue works quietly with Lockheed towards Orion flying on New Glenn
      Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable for Moon and beyond
        I don't think the pad is done.
        First launch pushed beyond 2021
        I still think they are looking at Orion on New Glenn
        Some reusable second stage details are coming out and I think it will be refuelable
        +0.5 (5 for 10)

        Blue Moon Lander
                NASA delays planned landing until NET 2026 providng reduced funding.
      Continues fully funding development of Descent Element with internal funds while NG and Lockheed slow down their part due to reduced NASA funding.
        I should have foreseen not enough money for two landers.  At least I was right about delays
        +0.0 (5 for 11)

        All launches successful
        Vulcan launches by year end
        At least all the launches were successful
        +0.5 (5.5 for 12)

Small Launchers
   Market grows slowly and many smaller players drop out.
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches (prediction will finally happen in 2021)
        Rocket Lab
                One successful first stage helicopter recovery by year's end
        I think Virgin Orbit had two successful launches
        I think the market for this didn't grow very fast this year
        Too optimistic on Rocketlabl
        +0.5 (6 for 13)

        Fly carrier aircraft at least five times to test flying characteristics
      Talon development progresses steadily
        I don't think carrier aircraft flew five times
        Talon development is moving forward
        +0.5 (6.5 for 14)

Lunar landers
        National Team and SpaceX survive downselect
        Awards slow development contracts The National Team and SpaceX
   first mission date moves to NET 2026
   NASA tries to build case for bigger HLS budget in 2022
        Half right on awards
        +0.5 (7 for 15)

        More maintenance issues pop up as station ages.
   Axiom makes steady progress for commercial station to eventually replace ISS
        Close enough
        +1.0 (8 for 16)

        PPE/Minimum hab development slows down due to lack of new administration support
   Russia - talks continue but still no agreement to contribute
        Close enough even though talks with Russia probably have petered out
        +1.0 (9 for 17)

Artemis Program
        Target for lunar landing moved back to 2026 which really means 2030 or later.
   Planning for Artemis 3 to 6 become Gateway only missions.
        Landing moved to NET 2025 will still probably be delayed beyond that
        +0.5 (9.5 for 18)

        Development of Nuclear Thermal engine continues slower targeting 2028 in space test
   Mars Ice Mapper program starts
        SpaceX’s plan to send cargo version of Starship gets moved to 2026
        Ice mapper did not start, It is in the request for 2022
        I don't know if Cargo version of Starship targeted for 2026 0r not so not a win.
        +0.0 (6.5 for 19)

NASA Administrator
   People will quickly miss Jim Bridenstine
        I have missed his leadership style.  Nelson isn't as bad as I thought he would be but no inspiring informed public speeches like Bridenstine did
        +1.0 (6.5 for 20)

   Will not be nearly as high a priority as it was in the last four years.
   No growth in funding over next four years.
   Lunar return priority fades as excuse is that Mars is the real goal sometimes way out in the future.
        Thankfully wrong on this one.  I don't think it is as high a priority as under the last administration but Congress is now onboard.
        +0.0 (# for 21)

Mediocre year for predictions at best for me.

Offline Tobias_Corbett

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Re: Predictions 2021
« Reply #101 on: 12/28/2021 02:06 am »
Lets see how I did.

- Artemis I flies in Q4, Artemis II's crew is named, includes three NASA astronauts (one woman) and one Canadian astronaut.
- Dynetics and SpaceX are down-selected for Artemis HLS
- Congress increases funding for Artemis, although first landing is pushed back to 2028 and a later mission.
- Artemis III is changed to a gateway only flight, Artemis IV becomes an un crewed lander-Orion test flight.
- Europa Clipper is moved to a commercial launch vehicle from SLS.
- Pamela Melroy is sworn in as NASA's 14th Administrator (this one is extremely specific but I still feel confident about it).

Not to great on NASA predictions, landing did get pushed back and SpaceX (minus Dynetics) did get selected, but ultimately I was a bit off on the specifics, and sadly Melroy did not become Administrator (Deputy is good enough I guess). I'll give myself a 3/10 for this one. 

-SN9 hops to 12.5km, destroyed on landing.
-SN10 repeats the 12.5km hops but is able to land without blowing up, before tipping over and being damaged beyond repair.
-Towards the end of the year SN11 becomes the first Starship prototype to complete return from a 12.5km hop in one piece.
-Lunar Starship mockup is completed, Artemis astronauts begin flying down to Texas to start training on the mockup/actively taking part in development.
-BN1 is completed, performs static fire but blows up.
-Crew-2, Crew-3 and AX-1 all fly to the ISS successfully. Crew-4 is penciled for 2022 with the exact launch date depending on Starliner-1.

SN9 and SN10 predictions were (If I do say so myself) pretty much perfect, SN10 exploded instead of tipping over but I'm still going to give myself that one. I was off on SN11 and the Lunar Starship mockup but I am pretty sure some Astros made their way down to Texas. BN1 also didn't happen, but I guess you could consider being mothballed a form of blowing up. Ax-1 got delayed but all my Commercial Crew Dragon predictions were pretty much on the money so I still feel pretty good about that one. Over all I give myself a 7/10 for SpaceX related predictions.

-Tianhe 1 launches in Q1.
-Shenzhou 12 carries three Chinese taikonauts to the station in Q2, followed by Shenzhou 13 in Q4.
-The landing site for Chang'e 6 is selected and is set to launch on the first ever sample return mission to the far side of the Moon in 2025.

Overall not to bad, Tianhe 1, Shenzhou 12 and 13 both flew but as far as I know there was no landing site selection for Chang'e 6. I think an 8/10 fits for this one.

-First successful launches from LC-2 and LC-1B are carried out.
-A booster is successfully recovered.

I guess you could consider them fishing a booster out of the Hawke's Bay as a recovery, but I kind of expected a successful helicopter recovery, so 0/10 for me on this one.

-Boe-OFT2 flies in Q2, followed by CFT in Q4.
-Starliner-1 is scheduled for 2022, a JAXA astronaut is added to the crew.

No and No. Starliner-1 is still ages away but Koichi Wakata was briefly assigned before he was reassigned to Crew-5, so based on that I'm still going to give myself a 1/10.

NSF's youngest writer, Tobias Corbett, finally manages to write an article free of a single typo.

No comment...

Space Politics
-The incoming Biden administration's space policy prioritizes climate science over human spaceflight, despite this the Artemis program pulls of the impossible and survives a change of administration.

I guess, haven't paid enough attention to Biden's Administrations Space Policy in order to comment on this so I'll give myself a 5/10.

Well, in my made up system of ranking myself I got a 12/35. So... not great, wish me luck for next year's predictions because I'm going to need it.
« Last Edit: 12/28/2021 02:08 am by Tobias_Corbett »

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2021
« Reply #102 on: 12/29/2021 06:28 pm »
My predictions for 2021.. somewhat rehashed from 2021, which were rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

  -- guesses:
  -- results:
  -- guesses:
  -- results:

  -- guesses:
  -- results:

How'd I do? Let's see

2021 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 20 (up from 15 last year) flights, I guessed 33 in the poll: )
Yep. 1/1

- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (same as last year, they didn't)
Yep. 2/2

- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (same as last year, they made it)
Yep. 3/3

- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered at least one of those times (lost last year, this year I will win. Maybe. Maybe just half. There are two on the manifest.)
Nope! Not even once. 0 points so 3/4

- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (same, this is an easy one for 21)
Nope! 10KM is not the Karman line  3/5

- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (20 saw FAA opening RFC, this will continue)
sort of? The environmental assessment is progressing.   3.5/6

- CommsX (what I fondly call Starlink still) constellation will see at least another 600 satellites launched (this is lowball actually)
Easy!  4.5/7  see

- Starlink Beta will expand to include at least 5x more surface area but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers)
Yes, but why did I talk about surface area???  5.5/8

- At least 1 Starlink satellite will be released by a Starship into orbit by end of year. (this requires them making orbit)
Nope!  5.5/9

- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and will be serious tunneling on more than one project at once. Vegas initial boring project completed, operational and work proceeding on route/system expansion. At least one other project will be underway somewhere. There will be new TBMs that are refinements of what did the Vegas work. 
TBC got Ft Lauderdale. Is that "major"???  Vegas is operational but I don't think any other project is boring yet. .5 at best... 6/10

- Dragon launched passengers last year, twice. This year there will be more Dragon crew launched than Starliner crew (this requires at least one launch).
Easy! 7/11

- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last three years)
Sadly no 7/12

- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 75% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 6 fairing halves will be reused successfully. (up from 60% and 4 reused fairing halves)
Yep 8/13  see
 but stats on this are harder to find than stage stats

- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration (probably gonna lose this one, did last year)
Chopstick legless landing is back. Also the Lunar Lander is a config change, I am going to award myself a point... 9/14

- There will be no significant name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020 (I've been playing black saying there would be and missing the spin, let's try red)
none  10/15  (I'm not counting "stage 0")

- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc) (repeat. cmon, anything??) by SpaceX
de nada... 10/16

- by some credible third party (Bechtel, Caterpillar... you get the idea)
two whiffs 10/17

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2021 (repeat... maybe this year?)
nope! 10/18

- Boeing will be credibly alleged to have done some skullduggery of some sort. (too easy but I can't help meself)
737s...   11/19

- NASA will downselect to not include Starship as the oldSpace contractors show their muscle (hoping to be wrong)
Surprise!!!! NASA picked Starship for the lander so that counts as a fail  11/20

- Enough with the detailed ULA picks about IVF/Centaur!!! I give up. This year ULA does nothing to advance either of these. Changed from black to red again. 

- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)

- ULA will have at least one launch campaign that scrubs 5 or more times before a successful (or otherwise) launch (should have had this one last year, LOL *cough* Delta IV)
I think they did? 14/23 but may be wrong

- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 2 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (three years ago was >5, then >4, last year >3).
Whoops, they did launch more than 2 times. At least one was uncrewed but they did not announce cessation... call it 0  14/24  see

- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
Stage 1 pathfinder seen outside factory  15/25

- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
lawsuit comments. 16/26

- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)
17/27 - so obvs... should cut this but I need the gimme!!

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
18/28 - so obvs... should cut this but I need the gimme!!

- Artemis will make progress and the lander downselect won't be to just one lander. (SpaceX in/out (above) doesn't affect this outcome)
progress yes. Lander downselect no, it was to just one.   .5   18.5/29

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of 2 years ago and last year which was 7/6)
6 launches 5 successes.. 0 points.   18.5/30  see

- By year end there will be at least 2 Electron recoveries that were at least partially successful, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (up from one last year, which I won)
2 ocean recoveries 19.5/31

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (threepeat of last year... cmon)
yes.. I am going to count Branson as "paying"  20.5/32  see

- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (threepeat of last year...  TBF they did have a launch)
yes 21.5/33  see

- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (repeat. no customers yet but not mothballed) no customers, not mothballed... .5  22/34  see

- Voyager will announce at least one more surprise acquisition beyond Nanoracks
X.O is the parent of Nanoracks and I tink that's the last one. 22/35

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).
Close... is a crash landing a landing?  .5   22.5/36

Better than last year's 16/36 but not that great

"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2021
« Reply #103 on: 01/04/2022 01:48 pm »
 A little late, but at least it's done now.
No Starship or derivative reaches orbit Yep
No US lunar lander lands successfully Yep
VG flies no more than four times Yep
NS flies no more than four times and does not take paid passengers Nope
Alpha maiden launch fails Yep
OFT-2 faces no major problems Nope
NG flies Nope
Vulcan maiden launch is successful; if there are any more launches they also are not failures Nope

No complete failures - bit riskier this year with Angara - this one is arguable with the Angara, but it'll be generous and say Yep

Gaganyaan prototype launches Nope
Five or less total orbital launches as they struggle with Covid recovery Yep - two!
Hopper appears, does not fly Nope

Tianwen-1 works with no major issues Yep
ZQ-2 reaches orbit Nope
Another private liquid launcher is shown but doesn't fly Nope
Tianhe launch is successful, permanent habitation has begin by the end of the year Yep
At least one big rocket hopper appears Nope
Crewed lunar programme is officially approved Yep

Iran successfully launches an all-(or mostly-) solid SLV Nope
Nuri is pushed to 2022 Nope
DPRK makes some noises about rockets as Nuri approaches but no SLV launches Yep

At least one orbital collision involving a complete sat Yep - I thought i'd lost this one, but it was just confirmed for Yunhai 1-02
115-130 launches Nope
7-10 complete failures (lots of maiden launches again) Yep
China>US [not incl. RL]>Russia launch totals pattern holds (possibly for the last time, with US small launchers ramping up) Yep
At least seven orbital launchers have their maiden flight attempts this year Nope
We get a launch failure with successful booster recovery Yep - I was expecting SpaceX, but RL got this one in for me.
52% right. I was trying hard to hit a balance that wasn't too pessimistic or optimistic, and I think I got it. Next time I need to find a balance between incorrect and correct...
« Last Edit: 01/04/2022 01:49 pm by Kryten »


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