Predictions 2021

[Eric Hedman]

Ok here I go

Two Starship explode during a refueling test in orbit, generating a cloud of a 250 tons of Space débris, triggering the Kessler syndrome and putting an end to space flight for the next few centuries.

End of the story.

Did I get that right?

No just because it is unlikely that there will be any testing of refueling in orbit in 2021.  2022 is probably when testing will first take place.

[DreamyPickle]

Two Starship explode during a refueling test in orbit, generating a cloud of a 250 tons of Space débris, triggering the Kessler syndrome and putting an end to space flight for the next few centuries.

Refueling would most likely happen in very low orbit and any debris after an explosion would quickly fall back to the ground.

[hektor]

It was a joke. That being said the Indian asat test took place at less than 300 km and celestrak has still debris in orbit monitored as of today..

[yoram]

First "full price" customers start using water landed reused fairings

Looks like SXM-7 used "net landed" fairings. I guess that's close enough (happened already in '20, not '21) to be near a miss.

[Eric Hedman]

Predictions 2021

My 2019 predictions weren’t as good as my 2018 predictions.  My 2020 predictions were not as good as my 2019 predictions.  Once again, most of my misses were from being too optimistic on timelines for things to happen.  So here goes:

Space Tourism
   Space Tourism will finally actually start by the end of this millennium (sarcasm)
      
        Blue Origin  (everything two years later than my predictions for 2019)
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
        Virgin Galactic
                Another delay from test flight that failed
            Richard Branson takes flight in Q3
                First tourist flight in Q4

Commercial Crew
        Dragon
                Has a good year with all missions successful
        CST-100
            Unmanned test flight will discover new issues delaying crewed test flight
                Crewed test flight pushed to Q4 2021 and successful

SLS
        Green run discovers a few issues to clean up
        Stays enough on schedule for 2021 Q4 launch

Orion
        Artemis 1 flight successful by end of 2021
   Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut)
   Artemis 3 plan changes to mission to Gateway only.  First landing moved to Artemis 6 or 7

SpaceX
        Falcon 9 perfect record again
      Starlink deployment continues successfully with subscriptions steadily increasing
      Dragon - See above
        Starship
                Steady development, but slower than expected
         Lunar Starship development slows since NASA didn't get budget request
         Heat shield issues take longer than expected to resolve
         Another prototype before successful landing
      Super Heavy
         Flies several times, but not with Starship in 2021

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                Launch pad for New Glenn completed
      First launch pushed to 2022
      Blue works quietly with Lockheed towards Orion flying on New Glenn
      Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable for Moon and beyond
        Blue Moon Lander
                NASA delays planned landing until NET 2026 providng reduced funding.
      Continues fully funding development of Descent Element with internal funds while NG and Lockheed slow down their part due to reduced NASA funding.

ULA
        All launches successful
        Vulcan launches by year end

Small Launchers
   Market grows slowly and many smaller players drop out.
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches (prediction will finally happen in 2021)
        Rocket Lab
                One successful first stage helicopter recovery by year's end

Stratolauncher
        Fly carrier aircraft at least five times to test flying characteristics
      Talon development progresses steadijy

Lunar landers
        National Team and SpaceX survive downselect
        Awards slow development contracts The National Team and SpaceX
   first mission date moves to NET 2026
   NASA tries to build case for bigger HLS budget in 2022

ISS
        More maintenance issues pop up as station ages.
   Axiom makes steady progress for commercial station to eventually replace ISS
      
Gateway
        PPE/Minimum hab development slows down due to lack of new administration support
   Russia - talks continue but still no agreement to contribute
       
Artemis Program
        Target for lunar landing moved back to 2026 which really means 2030 or later.
   Planning for Artemis 3 to 6 become Gateway only missions.
     
Mars
        Development of Nuclear Thermal engine continues slower targeting 2028 in space test
   Mars Ice Mapper program starts
        SpaceX’s plan to send cargo version of Starship gets moved to 2026
      
NASA Administrator
   People will quickly miss Jim Bridenstine
      
NASA
   Will not be nearly as high a priority as it was in the last four years.
   No growth in funding over next four years.
   Lunar return priority fades as excuse is that Mars is the real goal sometimes woy out in the future.

I'm no longer nearly as optimistic about the pace of positive activity

[hektor]

I am intrigued about your statement

Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut)

I know for a fact it cannot be a European, so I am wondering which nationality it would be in your prediction. Canada ? Japan ? Russia as a tool for mending the relationship ? another country ?

[Bruhman97]

SLS will not be delayed and will launch in 2021!   

[Rebel44]

My prediction:

Space Tourism
Blue Origin: 3 manned flights of New Shepard
Virgin Galactic: 2 successful manned flights, but several flights being aborted due to technical issues

Commercial Crew
2 nominal Crew Dragon flights
Starliner uncrewed test flight goes OK in early Q3, but some smaller issues are found that delay the test fligh with crew into early 2022

SLS + Orion
between recently found issue with Orion and issues found during the SLS Green Run, the 1st flight of SLS gets delayed into Q2 2022

SpaceX
30+ flights of Falcon 9
all orbital launches successful
at least 1 Falcon 9 booster flying for 10+th time
1 or 2 more Starship prototypes get destroyed during test flights
successful suborbital (above the Karman Line) test flight of Starship in Q2
successful orbital launch of Superheavy + Starship in Q4, but failed Starship recovery from orbit


Blue Origin
The 1st launch of New Glenn delayed to mid-2022


ULA
All launches successful
Vulcan successfully launches by the end of 2021

Rocket Lab
8 launches - all successful
3 boosters recovered and 1 of them reused by the end of the year

Stratolauncher
2 launch failures and Stratolauncher goes bankrupt

NASA
SpaceX and Dynetics survive downselect with landing being planned for 2026
ISS gets support for operating until at least 2030
Gateway gets delayed
Due to SLS delays, Europa Clipper is finally approved to move to commercial launcher - Falcon Heavy is selected to launch it.
   
     

[yoram]

SpaceX and Dynetics survive downselect with landing being planned for 2026

No love for the national team? I guess the question is if Blue will go alone at a manned moon landing if they get selected out. Might be actually better for them because it would force them to develop the pieces owned by the other partners themselves, which might long term turn out much cheaper.

[Jrcraft]

USA:
Falcon 9 and Heavy do fine, at least one failed booster landing.
Starship will not make orbit in 21.
ULA flies Vulcan after some schedule slip, does fine.
ULA's other rockets do just fine.
Firefly alpha gets delayed a little bit. makes it to orbit, but requires a few minor changes before next flight.
Virgin orbit makes orbit, starts commercial operations, but launch dates consistently slip a bit.
Astra either makes it to orbit or goes under.
Rocket lab recovers a few boosters, does not refly any of them yet.
Antares does fine
Minotaur launches secret payload.
Pegasus gets a contract
Sir Richard fly's into space, but his flight is more into the middle of the year.
SLS is nearly ready to fly at the end of the year, gets pushed to early January.
New Glenn 2022.

Russia:
Two Angara launches.
Three proton launches.
Many Soyuz launches. A Fregat has to compensate for a mission.

Ariane Space:
JWST fly's end of the year.
Vega fly's again, but really only to use up remaining hardware .
Vega C flies, but Ariane 6 2022.

China:
Space station core module and crew launch.
Most launches are fine
Long March 3b fails during upper stage burn
A few more Chinese launches fail for a variety of reasons.

Iran:
Simorgh launch failure
Safir launch success.

Japan:
H3 flies end of the year

Israel:
Might launch another Ofek satellite.

DPRK:
No orbital launches

South Korea:
KSLV 2 launches.

Ukraine:
Cyclone-4m launches in 22

India:
Launches less rockets then are scheduled

Other:
Yet another TSTO powered by RP-1 and LoX is announced, NET 2022 to revolutionize smallsat access to space.
A few TSTO Rp-1 & LoX rockets that would have revolutionized smallsat access to space and were NET 2022 go out of business.
BPS.Space lands a rocket.

Personal:
I fly the aerospike engine I've been working on for the last couple months.

[Rebel44]

SpaceX and Dynetics survive downselect with landing being planned for 2026

No love for the national team? I guess the question is if Blue will go alone at a manned moon landing if they get selected out. Might be actually better for them because it would force them to develop the pieces owned by the other partners themselves, which might long term turn out much cheaper.

From what I read, the National Team appears to be the most expensive option and still have lots of risks just like other options - so given the NASA desire to get 2 contract winners and the limited budget they can expect, I don't see a particularly good reason for the National Team to survive the downselect.

[Eric Hedman]

I am intrigued about your statement

Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut)

I know for a fact it cannot be a European, so I am wondering which nationality it would be in your prediction. Canada ? Japan ? Russia as a tool for mending the relationship ? another country ?

I think there will be pressure to slow down the program even beyond slowing the landers through not getting the budget required.  Making the program even more international by promising a seat to another country (doesn't matter which one) puts pressure on politicians to not slowdown or cancel the program.

[Ladena]

I hope that in 2021 we will have rocket flights at least. As what comes to vacation I don't even go to the office. My work is monitored by remote employee monitoring software. Hopefully, in 2021, I'll have the opportunity for domestic trips, at least even if it seems impossible now.

[hektor]

Indeed there is a Canadian astronaut on Artemis 2. That was a correct prediction.

[Eric Hedman]

Indeed there is a Canadian astronaut on Artemis 2. That was a correct prediction.

That was the quickest prediction proven correct I ever made.  Maybe I should go buy a lottery ticket.  Though I did predict that the announcement would happen in 2021.  I think Jim Bridenstine read my prediction and rushed the announcement so I wouldn't be completely right.

[Lar]

My predictions for 2021.. somewhat rehashed from 2021, which were rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2020:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2031118#msg2031118
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2172520#msg2172520
2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

2021 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 20 (up from 15 last year) flights, I guessed 33 in the poll: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52633.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (same as last year, they didn't)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (same as last year, they made it)
- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered at least one of those times (lost last year, this year I will win. Maybe. Maybe just half. There are two on the manifest.)
- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (same, this is an easy one for 21)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (20 saw FAA opening RFC, this will continue)
- CommsX (what I fondly call Starlink still) constellation will see at least another 600 satellites launched (this is lowball actually)
- Starlink Beta will expand to include at least 5x more surface area but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers)
- At least 1 Starlink satellite will be released by a Starship into orbit by end of year. (this requires them making orbit)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and will be serious tunneling on more than one project at once. Vegas initial boring project completed, operational and work proceeding on route/system expansion. At least one other project will be underway somewhere. There will be new TBMs that are refinements of what did the Vegas work.
- Dragon launched passengers last year, twice. This year there will be more Dragon crew launched than Starliner crew (this requires at least one launch).
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last three years)
- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 75% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 6 fairing halves will be reused successfully. (up from 60% and 4 reused fairing halves)
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration (probably gonna lose this one, did last year)
- There will be no significant name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020 (I've been playing black saying there would be and missing the spin, let's try red)
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc) (repeat. cmon, anything??) by SpaceX
- by some credible third party (Bechtel, Caterpillar... you get the idea)

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2021 (repeat... maybe this year?)
- Boeing will be credibly alleged to have done some skullduggery of some sort. (too easy but I can't help meself)
- NASA will downselect to not include Starship as the oldSpace contractors show their muscle (hoping to be wrong)

- Enough with the detailed ULA picks about IVF/Centaur!!! I give up. This year ULA does nothing to advance either of these. Changed from black to red again.
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)
- ULA will have at least one launch campaign that scrubs 5 or more times before a successful (or otherwise) launch (should have had this one last year, LOL *cough* Delta IV)

- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 2 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (three years ago was >5, then >4, last year >3).
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- Artemis will make progress and the lander downselect won't be to just one lander. (SpaceX in/out (above) doesn't affect this outcome)

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of 2 years ago and last year which was 7/6)
- By year end there will be at least 2 Electron recoveries that were at least partially successful, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (up from one last year, which I won)

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (threepeat of last year... cmon)
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (threepeat of last year...  TBF they did have a launch)
- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (repeat. no customers yet but not mothballed)

- Voyager will announce at least one more surprise acquisition beyond Nanoracks

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).

[Skamp_X]

Always enjoy these, first time joining in.
-SN9 fails at some point during flight.
-SN10 total success.
-SH SN1 hop success , does not fly again.
-SH SN2 with not full engine count launches low mass starship to orbit ,success , will be reused for more test.
-Starship reaches orbit end of year , reentry but soft lands in ocean. (intentionally)

-China mars lander lands successfully
-JWTS delayed but launches before end of year , major problems are discovered soon after. (hope not)

-Planet 9 is not found
-2nd planet at proxima century is confirmed , 3th planet smaller then earth is speculated
-No aliens contact us

-National team and dynetics get 2nd round, spacex moonship is considered for cargo only delivery.
-Moonlanding pushed back to 2028
 

[nacnud]

My prediction from a currently flooding and plague ridden UK

Locusts

[Tobias_Corbett]

Okay my predictions last year were a bit of a disaster but here we go again anyway.

NASA
- Artemis I flies in Q4, Artemis II's crew is named, includes three NASA astronauts (one woman) and one Canadian astronaut.
- Dynetics and SpaceX are down-selected for Artemis HLS
- Congress increases funding for Artemis, although first landing is pushed back to 2028 and a later mission.
- Artemis III is changed to a gateway only flight, Artemis IV becomes an un crewed lander-Orion test flight.
- Europa Clipper is moved to a commercial launch vehicle from SLS.
- Pamela Melroy is sworn in as NASA's 14th Administrator (this one is extremely specific but I still feel confident about it).

SpaceX
-SN9 hops to 12.5km, destroyed on landing.
-SN10 repeats the 12.5km hops but is able to land without blowing up, before tipping over and being damaged beyond repair.
-Towards the end of the year SN11 becomes the first Starship prototype to complete return from a 12.5km hop in one piece.
-Lunar Starship mockup is completed, Artemis astronauts begin flying down to Texas to start training on the mockup/actively taking part in development.
-BN1 is completed, performs static fire but blows up.
-Crew-2, Crew-3 and AX-1 all fly to the ISS successfully. Crew-4 is penciled for 2022 with the exact launch date depending on Starliner-1.

CNSA
-Tianhe 1 launches in Q1.
-Shenzhou 12 carries three Chinese taikonauts to the station in Q2, followed by Shenzhou 13 in Q4.
-The landing site for Chang'e 6 is selected and is set to launch on the first ever sample return mission to the far side of the Moon in 2025.

Rocketlab
-First successful launches from LC-2 and LC-1B are carried out.
-A booster is successfully recovered.

Boeing
-Boe-OFT2 flies in Q2, followed by CFT in Q4.
-Starliner-1 is scheduled for 2022, a JAXA astronaut is added to the crew.

NSF
-NASASpaceflight.com's youngest writer, Tobias Corbett, finally manages to write an article free of a single typo.

Space Politics
-The incoming Biden administration's space policy prioritizes climate science over human spaceflight, despite this the Artemis program pulls of the impossible and survives a change of administration.

[Danderman]

SLS is delayed.
JWST is delayed
Nauka (MLM) is delayed.
Virgin Galactic is delayed.


There are a handful of first launches of new commercial space launch companies. Maybe 50% are successful.

Artemis begins to die a slow death.

Someone starts up a new space project that starts with the letters S-T-A-R.  “Starlauncher”? “Starcomm”?

Russia announces a new project that is an obvious copy of some US project.