Author Topic: Predictions 2020  (Read 23505 times)

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #20 on: 12/23/2019 12:07 pm »
- At least 150 launches worldwide
- 8 failures
- More NASA employees of the Apollo generation sadly pass away

- Successful launch of 2020 Rover
- SLS officially slips into 1st half 2021 but efforts are made to bring it back into 2020 for the
- Bridenstine is forced by the budget to raid other bits of NASA for Artemis
- Boeing and SpaceX reach the spacestation by the middle of the year after mishaps
- Congressional pressure on the commercial program over mishaps and doubts raised about
  commercial launch being used for Artemis. Congress tries to resurrect sole use of SLS
- Plans for gateway are delayed but mature. New countries join artemis program
- NASA awards contracts for the manned landers for Artemis and heavy cargo
- Curiosity fails on Mars
- Major safety mishap on the ISS calls into question its future
- New companies emerge proposing orbital infrastructure for NASA (fuel depots,
- All other space science missions successfully continue
- Proposal to repair and upgrade Hubble on a manned mission using Starship
- Planet 9 discovered and it has one really surprising aspect
- ‘Planet 10’ search begins
- A unexpected chemical is found on Mars

Blue Origin / Amazon Kuiper
- The lower stage of New Glenn is revealed in photos nearly full assembled by the end of the
- The notional architecture of New Armstrong is revealed
- Blue reveal plans for orbital stations based on the upper stage of New Glenn, propose it to
- Also plans emerge for orbital refuelling with new glenn and depots and Blue Moon ‘Heavy’
- New Glenn slips into 2022 and loses the ‘EELV2’ contract
- New Shepard flies with people by the middle of the year
- Plans for surborbital tourism on New Glenn emerge with a notional capsule
- These plans include ‘free return’ loops around the Moon and LEO visits, by middle of decade
- The Kuiper constellation plans increase in size to 10k sats
- Blue and a few other companies will get contracts to launch the sats
- There will be something unique about the Kuiper constellation, the sats will be software driven
   reconfigurable and will perform some of the data processing rather than being just bent pipes.

- A new record for Falcon 9 launches with one failure
- First contract to deliver a sat with SS/SuperHeavy is signed
- At least 2 more customer for Falcon Heavy
- Recovery of fairings will be abandoned to spend more time and resources on Starship
- Starship will reach space by the end of the year but not orbit
- Construction will be well underway for Super Heavy by the middle of the year
- A fatality occurs during the construction of Starship. Puts the program under public scrutiny.
  Security and privacy of the building site ramp up and sadly bring an end to much of the great
  coverage we have seen so far from forum members and twitter.
- SpaceX expands on its lunar plans and sets out a tourism subsidiary offering rides to the ISS
   on Dragon 2, loops around the Moon and eventual landings.
- Lunar plans expand after winning a cargo delivery contract with Starship
- Manned Mars missions slip however, SpaceX proposes to NASA to use Starship for rover
  missions and sample return
- SpaceX collaborates with Tesla to produce a Mars rover to sell to NASA and for early
  exploration of mars landing sites
- SpaceX plans to very early on deliver modified Starlink sats to Mars orbit and sell
   communication and observation services to NASA
- The Boring Company reveals a concept for a Lunar/Mars TBM for habit construction
- One of the Starships under construction by end of year will be the ‘Chomper’ version
- A recession puts Elon Musk's companies under pressure

- Exomars has a failure due to the Russian descent module
- All other ESA missions successful
- Ariane 6 is successful but a pyrrhic victory. Soyuz and Vega get more contracts for
- Initial tests for reusability begin
- There are calls to introduce competition into European launch market but also ban European
  sats on foreign launch vehicles as part of growing protectionism in the world
- More launch startups emerge in Europe
- With UK out of Europe after Brexit, there is a serious proposal to launch polar missions from
  Ireland via a ‘commercial spaceport’ that takes advantage of incredibly low corporate tax!
- Ariane 7 notional architecture emerges as a 5 metre core, with options for either solids or side
  cores. First stage reusable 10 times
- European budgets are recovering and concepts for a European Manned Capsule emerge
- There is a proposal for a ‘Ariane 6 Heavy’ for lunar missions that uses two extra solids for
   placing heavier payloads towards the Moon including manned/cargo landers
- UK doubles down on support for Skylon as part of a nationalistic PR exercize for Boris

- Pursues are more independent and vigorous space launch program with bigger plans for
  its own launch vehicles
- Cooperates with Russia to develop new launch vehicles
- An agreement is reached to launch a Turkish astronaut to the ISS on Soyuz
- These developments of missile technology being transferred greatly worry America

- At least 35 launches
- China floats early concepts for space infrastructure or spaceports in Africa and
  flying payloads or people to the CSS
- First module of CSS slides into 2021 but the size of the station grows with proposals
  for other countries to add modules
- Many successful tests of reusability for China, more to prevent debris than anything
- The next Manned Space Capsule is officially tested
- Architecture for Long March 9 is reevaluated in the light of Starship
- China will fly sign on other nations astronauts and payloads on the CSS for soft power
- China tests a controversial hypersonic weapon
- Lunar sample return mission is a failure
- Mars mission is a partial failure

- Russia reveals new plans to test reusability, more to avoid landing debris than for economic
- World economy is in recession but the price of oil will be gigantic because of a crisis in Middle
   East so Russia increases the budget for its Super Heavy lifter and brings forward the
   timetable for propaganda and strategic reasons
- Russia tests space weapons and hypersonics in increasing sabre rattling. Creates a ‘Space
- Nauka delayed to early 2021
- With money drying up for crew launches and RD180, Russia tries to sell its wares elsewhere in
   the developing world, becoming a major proliferator of missile tech

- At least new one venture is created to develop RLVs first rather than expendable
- Rocketlab launches 10 times and reveals plans for a bigger sequel to Electron (Muon!)
- Several microlaunch companies go bust before anything is orbit but even more start up
- There is one new startup for satellite servicing/propellant depots
- Altius signs on more customers
- John Carmack has some new involvement in the space industry as a side project
- Orbital debris events will increase and place new scrutiny on megaconstellations. It will be
   accused of being a ‘wild west’ in space
- Masten expands and reveals new plans wrt Moon
- Elon Musk/Gwynne Shotwell have some involvement with ‘Breakthrough Starshot”

Other Countries
- A South African microlaunch vehicle concept is revealed
- Iran launches 3 times and fails once
- Iran has bigger plans for launch vehicles
- Relations deteriorate with North Korea. It resurrects its space program
- North Korea tests a space weapon to the horror of the general world
- Multiple space weapon tests occur. Militarization of space is a hot topic this year
- More nations join the fold of countries that have reached orbit, either through national
   programs or domestic companies.

Bonus Prediction:

I'll be at 33% right in these predictions. Predictions are hard, usually wrong and what really turns out can be so surprising. Looking forward to 2020, it looks to be the start of an eventual age in space and hopefully a golden age.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2019 12:08 pm by Darkseraph »
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #21 on: 12/23/2019 03:47 pm »
- Planet 9 discovered and it has one really surprising aspect
The surprising aspect will be that it is named Pluto.  Some people will claim it was discovered in 1930. ;D ;D

Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #22 on: 12/24/2019 05:10 am »

- Prediction
   - Prediction predicated on the above prediction
+ Especially bold and unlikely prediction

Where to start...

How about somewhere close to home? (for me anyway)

Firefly Aerospace
- Firefly Alpha flys before the end of the year
   - It's a successful flight
- We get a leaked render of the new Firefly Beta
   - It's glide-back

Virgin Orbit
- LauncherOne launches before the end of Q1

Rocket Lab
- Launch rate rises to 2 per month by years end
- Successfully get through "the Wall" by the end of Q3
- Attempt first helicopter catch in Q4

Boeing Space
- Next month, the engineers working on Starliner reccommend NASA and Boeing procceed to the Crew Flight Test
- CFT before the end of Q3
- Starliner flys with crew before Dragon
   - There are numerous claims of Boeing bias, when the reality is that Starliner is just the one that didn't explode
- The CEO change is good for Boeing, comparable to ULA changing over to Tory Bruno

- Continue making visible progress
+ Work with NASA on the first steps required in putting crew Dreamchaser on the CCP on-ramp

- Makes a lot of progress on all fronts in Q1
- Something blows up in Q2
   + The something is a Starlink Launch
- I can only have a prayer of predicting what will happen at SpaceX 6 months out
- Dragon flys with crew before the year ends
- All cargo Dragon flights go well
- Pad construction at Boca Chica finished this year
- F9 doesn't win the air force launcher competition
- Elon doesn't work himself to death... yet

Blue Origin
- People fly in New Shepard by the end of Q2
- We see New Glenn flight hardware by the end of Q3
- "Team America" wins the Artemis Lander contract
- New Glenn doesn't win the air force launcher competition
- Jeff Bezos takes alot of heat this year, laregly due to the election

- Vulcan wins the air force launcher competition
- All things Vulcan stay on track
- Tory Bruno continues being awesome

- All Cygnus flights go well
- Cygnus wins the gateway reupply contract
+ Antares recieves a commercial mission
+ OmegA wins the air force launcher competition

- SLS green run goes well
- Artemis 1 stacking by end of the year
- Contracts to support the Artemis program continue to be signed
   - Lander contract signed before the end of Q3
- The money requested for Artemis in the 2021 fiscal year budget is incredibly hard to get from congress
- Mars 2020 lands successfully
- ISS has no major troubles
- JWST remains on track

- Proposes another heavy lift vehicle
- Soyuz flights proceed without issue

- H3 launches before the end of the year
   - Successfully
   + During the Olympics
+ Akira doesn't come true
- An agreement to resupply Gateway with HTV-X is made
   - Launched via H3 dual launch
   + MHI also announces an H3 Heavy for later lunar launches
      + SNC offers to launch crew Dreamchaser on the H3 Heavy giving Japan it's "own" manned spacefligt capability
      + H3 Heavy uses 8 SRBs rather than being tri-core
+ Please someone propose an SLS EUS powered by a vacuum optimized LE-9

- Ariane 6 doesn't launch this year

- Continues progressing rapidly towards manned spaceflight

- Announces launch vehicle

- US life expectancy continues to decline
- US elects a new President
 + It's Andrew Yang
- Nationalism remains on the rise worldwide
- Cybertruck continues having problems
- Dutch Elon Musk makes significant, measurable progress in saving the oceans
- 2021 will be better
« Last Edit: 12/30/2019 02:20 pm by JEF_300 »
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #23 on: 12/24/2019 07:15 am »
- F9 doesn't win the air force launcher competition

+ OmegA wins the air force launcher competition
Wow. That's a bold one!
« Last Edit: 12/24/2019 07:16 am by jadebenn »

Offline Proponent

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #24 on: 12/24/2019 09:12 am »
I'll go bolder still:  ULA (Vulcan, with Atlas V as a partial back-up) and NGIS (OmegA) win the Phase 2 Air Force launch competition.  ULA gets the 60% share, NGIS the 40%.

Offline ZChris13

Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #25 on: 12/25/2019 12:56 am »
I guess I'll throw my hat in the ring here.
by the forum architecture order:

SLS and Orion - Will continue to chug along, an immovable political object, despite all objections.
HSF Landers - It progresses. We learn enough to start actually making predictions before the year is out.

for SpaceX:
Starlink - SpaceX try to fill the calendar with launches, but keep getting delayed. Still launches way more satellites than would seem reasonable. We finally get some hints to how they're going to roll out service.
Fairings - They slowly improve at catching them, but they don't get it perfect before the end of the year.
Falcon Heavy - Still criminally underused, they still don't manage to recover a center core, either by lack of launch or AFSPC-52 expending the center core or accident.
Starship and Super Heavy - lots of stuff here to make predictions about
 - With any luck we'll see a prototype get thermal tiles and a launch to 20km+ and subsequent Super Heavy production, instead of an endless series of manufacturing tests/pathfinders. My guess: the next prototype takes shape in April sometime.
 - The Annual September Starship Update happens again.
 - The Pad 39A Starship Super Heavy launchstool is structurally complete and very impressive early in 2020 but doesn't get used until Q4, if at all. (this could be completely wrong if Roberts Rd pops out a Starship early, which I don't think will happen)

Commercial - exciting stuff!
Smallsats - None of the hopefuls that everybody's watching do much.
Rocket Lab - Continue their quest to launch more than once every other month. Reusability starts working for them, but doesn't help much reaching that goal (yet).
I don't have much to say about satellite constellations.
Commercial Crew - Both Starliner and Dragon 2 launch crew to the ISS. SpaceX get the flag. People are still salty that Dream Chaser didn't get picked.
Blue Origin - Continue to be secretive.

PS: Oh, I forgot to mention NSSL. ULA/NGIS.
« Last Edit: 12/25/2019 12:57 am by ZChris13 »

Offline RocketLover0119

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #26 on: 12/25/2019 10:19 pm »
Not as many predictions here, or as in depth, and is also USA specific, but here goes nothing:

-We see Crew Dragon hoist astros for the first time to the ISS in February/March
-4/5 Crewed launches in all, and no anomalies/aborts
-25-30 F9/FH launches
-At least 1 booster will fail to land
-Over half of launches will have a successful fairing catch (one or both)
-No launch/on pad failures
-Starlink becomes operational by Q3
-Starship Mk 3 serves as another “pathfinder”, hops no higher than 10 KM, occurs Q1
-Mk 4 hops 20KM + but fails landing/ belly first entry, occurs Q2
-Mk 5 succeeds hops and “sky diver” entry, retires with valuable data, occurs in Q3
-Mk 6 flies with first Super Heavy, misses orbit narrowly, Occurs in Q3
-Mk 7 flies with SH and achieves orbit/successful reentry, occurs in Q4

-Keeps it’s 100% success rate
-No more than 12 flights during the year
-Vulcan flies twice, both flawless, certified by USAF for flights
-S.M.A.R.T reuse works only once in a Vulcan flight during the year
-Launches crew to ISS in Q2, no more than 3 flights with crew to ISS during the year
(Rather bland considering how little was done this year in 2019 besides the Starliner launch)

Blue Origin
-Space Tourists launch on New Shepherd in Q2
-New Glenn launch pad completes construction in Q2
-Flight hardware for first New Glenn launch will start to arrive Q4
-More information given about supposed “New Armstrong” rocket

SLS Artemis 1 Mission
-Artemis 1 core has successful “green run” campaign at Stennis, ships to Cape in late Q2
-Orion succeeds all testing, ships to cape in Q2
-Other components arrive in Q2/Q3
-Stacking of the Artemis 1 mission begins in late Q3
-Full stack rolls to 39B in late Q4 for testing/WDR’s
« Last Edit: 12/25/2019 10:24 pm by RocketLover0119 »
"The Starship has landed"

Offline VDD1991

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #27 on: 12/27/2019 11:49 pm »
Here is my laundry list of spaceflight predictions for 2020:

United States
1. SpaceX conducts 30 launches of Falcon 9 and 2 launches of Falcon Heavy
2. SpaceX beats Boeing in the race to make the US regain indigenous manned spaceflight for the first time since 2011
3. Maiden launch of LauncherOne
4. Maiden launch of Space Launch System

1. A partial Proton-M launch failure (caused by third stage anomaly and placing a telecom satellite into a lower than expected orbit) forces Roscosmos to reduce the number of remaining planned Proton-M launches to 7 by switching some payloads to the Angara rocket in order to save money for production of Angara.
2. About 20 Soyuz-2 launches and 3 Angara launches are conducted.

Third World
1. A joint space launch vehicle project between South Africa and Cuba using components of the cancelled apartheid-era RSA-3 rocket and spent rocket stages that landed in Cuban territorial waters after re-entering Earth's atmosphere sends a propaganda satellite into orbit, a rehearsal for a purely Cuban SLV project that could beat Brazil to the punch in the Latin American space race.
2. South Africa launches a satellite into orbit using a low-cost satellite launch vehicle similar to that of the Electron.

Private Spaceflight
1. Three manned spaceflights of Dragon 2 and Starliner
2. Rate of Electron launches increases

Offline rakaydos

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #28 on: 12/29/2019 03:26 pm »
- Planet 9 discovered and it has one really surprising aspect
The surprising aspect will be that it is named Pluto.  Some people will claim it was discovered in 1930. ;D ;D
Ceres was discovered in 1801. Pluto was never the 9th anything, realisticly.

Offline Finn Mac Doreahn

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #29 on: 12/30/2019 06:01 am »

25 launches,no failures. Well,not total failures. A Starlink launch in June doesn’t make it to quite the correct orbit.
IFA on 14 January. Success.
DM2 in May,returns on 1 July. Success. USCV-1 flies in December.

Several Starship flights over the course of the year. Mk5 makes it to near space in August,spectacular belly landing at White Sands. By end of year Super Heavy has flown once and Starship is just about in orbit.

Falcon Heavy in late September or early October. Finally the center core makes it back to Port Canaveral.

[EDIT zubenelgenubi: No.]

Starliner and all that jazz
No OFT-2. CFT flies in August,is successful. Return to earth in October.
Flight contracts are issued for non-ISS Starliner missions.

Mars 2020 is formally named Curiosity II in April. Launch on 17 July,landing on 5 February 2021. The usual hiccup or two during cruise. Landing is successful.
Artemis lander contract is issued during summer. Flights out to Artemis 12 are planned.
SLS will perform the Green run hotfire test in May with no major issue and will ship to KSC in August with Artemis 1 rolling out to the pad for pre-flight testing just before the end of the year.
Artemis 1 Orion will return to KSC from Ohio in March and will be stacked on SLS in October.
Artemis 2 crew is announced at some point. There will be an international crew member. It will be Samantha Cristoforetti.
ISS keeps ticking along. Yawn.
JWST remains on track.
One Voyager dies,other survives to 2026.

Blue Origin
First crewed NS launch on 4 July. Bill Nelson is on it.
One more crewed launch before end of year.
New Glenn gets payload contracts,including 3 comm satellites. The option of launching from LC-39B or LC-41 is broached.

Construction of SLC-7 to handle VAFB launches begins.

All launches this year are successful.
ULA switches back to RD-180 after Tory Bruno has a brain fart and realizes that foreign cooperation is better.
Omega gets closer to flight,nabs first real contracts.
Vulcan first flies at beginning of ‘21. Don’t care (yet) about the outcome.

The Euros
One partial failure ala SES-14,but not as serious.
Exomars goes up without a hitch,landing is slightly dicey but works.
Ariane 6 happens in November. It gets more payload contracts,including Heracles,now projected to debut in 2025.
More science missions get approved. The Airbus Moon Cruiser does not.

3 Angara flights,12 Soyuz,5 Protons,no failures.
Nauka flies in October. Pirs is retained on orbit for a few months for materials degradation experiments.
Work on a Falcon 9 style Irtysh begins.
Putin starts mulling state-sponsored Electron equivalent.

China and Japan
41 launches.
Tianhe begins assembly.
The new space capsule flies in August,is named Longxing (Starry Dragon).
Chang’e 5 is a success.
So is the Mars rover.
A Venus balloon gets approved.

10 launches from Japan.
H3 debuts without fanfare.
MELOS is on target for 2022,MMX for 2024. A sample return mission gets approved for 2029.
HTV-X gets approved for Gateway. Launch will be on Falcon Heavy.

Everyone else
Virgin Orbit sells LauncherOne-based missile derivative idea to USAF after successful test flight.
28 Electron missions. Two failures. LC-1B and -2 debut. Lunar Scout flies by year’s end,from LC-2.
5 Firefly missions. The first is a partial failure.
North Korea collapses. The South buys up their space program.
India chugs along. One unmanned Gaganyaan test mission towards the end of the year. It lasts a week.

Not space
Elizabeth Warren becomes first woman POTUS.
I buy KSP.
For All Mankind is renewed out to Season 5.
After a triumphant debut,The Right Stuff is renewed out to Season 6. Space is finally relevant again.

« Last Edit: 12/30/2019 08:39 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Online Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #30 on: 12/30/2019 07:56 pm »
SS2 flies a few pathfinder passenger flights but isn't truly operational (I'll consider this false if they get more than four flights in or more than once a month)
NS crew flights take place in the second half of the year, no real paid passenger service
Astra reach orbit but not on the first attempt
Another Stealth Space company enters prominence
No more than two US lunar landers launch and no more than one successfully lands
Starliner and Crew Dragon first operational flights both have no more than minor issues
No Starliner OFT-2

None of the liquid-fueled private rockets makes orbit successfully by the end of the year
No failures on established launchers (those that have already flown before the start of the year)
Chang'e 5 completes it's mission successfully

Exomars 2020 becomes Exomars 2022
Ariane 6 slips to 2021

No complete failures

DPRK shows off a larger engine or an engine cluster, but no SLV launches.
Egypt show off an orbital launcher concept

110-130 launches
5-8 complete failures (lots of maiden launches this year)
China>US>Russia launch totals (with electron not counting as US)
At least seven orbital launchers have their maiden flight attempts this year
VS-50 is tested successfully (really hoping for this one, those guys need a break...)

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #31 on: 12/31/2019 02:13 am »
My predictions for 2020.. somewhat rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

  -- guesses:
  -- results:

  -- guesses:
  -- results:

2020 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 15 flights, I guessed 24 in the poll)
- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (down from last year's prediction of 6 or less)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (they missed 90% in 2019 which was my prediction, let's try again)
- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered (more optimistic about recovery than 2019)
- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (revised from last year)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (revised from last year)
- CommsX constellation will see at least another 240 test satellites launched (rideshare or dedicated mission, that's only 4 dedicated, there are way more on the manifest)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and start serious tunneling on more than one project. Vegas boring completed but maybe not operational yet.
- Skeptics will continue to deny that TBC is doing anything special and doubt the speedups
- Dragon 2 will launch with crew/passengers in 2020 (repeat of last year)
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last two years)
- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 60% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 4 fairing half will be reused successfully. (up from 40% and 1 reused fairing half)
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration
- There will be at least one more name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc)

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2020 (reversal of last year)
- Boeing will skate right into the first crewed test flight without having to repeat the uncrewed, through some skullduggery of some sort.
- NASA's tilt toward Boeing which was evident in 2019 becomes even more pronounced and Boeing will capture the flag even if it means delaying Dragon by months and months so they can win.

- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there (fourpeat)
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur (fourpeat)
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)

- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 3 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (last year was >5, this year is <4).
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of last year)
- By year end there will be an Electron recovery, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (new)

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (repeat of last year... cmon)
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (repeat of last year...)
- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed

- There will continue to be shakeout in the smallsat launcher biz. At least one startup in existence at the start of 2020 will exit by the end of 2020

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).

- NSF's new look will see some minor refinement but nothing as big as late 2019
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts (repeat, gimme)
« Last Edit: 12/31/2019 02:47 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #32 on: 01/01/2020 12:42 am »
And with a few hours to spare...
-SpaceX flies Falcon 9 13 times
-No Falcon 9 will fly more than 5 times
-Falcon Heavy will fly twice
-Starship Mk1 MK3 “whichever one tries the belly flop first” will crash when it tries to flip from horizontal to vertical
-No Starship variant will pass the Karman line.
-The Starship design will have changed again by the obligatory 2020 update presentation

Blue Origin:
-More New Glenn hardware will be shown, but nothing resembling a complete stage
-No images of New Armstrong will be shown

Commercial Crew:
-Boeing captures the flag
-Only one crew mission for each company is flown
-Nobody dies

-Rocketlab will find recovery harder than they expected, but will get a stage back before the end of the year
-Virgin Orbit will not fly before the end of February. The first launch will not reach orbit.
-Vector will stay dead
-Firefly’s first launch won’t make orbit
-Firefly goes out of business (again)

-SLS doesn't fly
-SpaceX will be selected for cargo, but not people
-“Blue and Crew” and Boeing are among the app H lander groups to be selected

-EXOS will finally solve their “up” problem and pass 100km
-New Shephard will fly three times, but not with people
-VSS Unity will never fly again.
-SpaceShipTwo #3 will make one glide flight.
-The XCOR test hardware (EZ Rocket doesn’t count) continues to sit in storage, with no public appearances.
I tried it at home

Offline Targeteer

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #33 on: 01/01/2020 01:10 am »
In an interesting note tied to the start of the new year... Posted by me in the Expedition 61 thread

ISS is currently experiencing a communications disruption with MCC-H.  CAPCOM just called the crew indicating the ground is reconfiguring to a low data rate which means the crew only has Space-Ground 1 at their disposal.  MCC-H believes the problem is related to the GMT/new year roll over.  They think they understand the problem but believe it will take several hours to fix.  They told the crew the issue should be resolved when they wake up.
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #34 on: 01/01/2020 06:26 pm »
I want to add one prediction that no one has control over.  The star system KIC 9832227 about 1800 light years from here, which is a contact binary, will go red nova at the end of the year giving us a show for next Christmas.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #35 on: 01/02/2020 05:10 pm »
I think I skipped doing predictions last year, but here are a few for this year (not meant to be comprehensive):

-Will have a solid year with somewhere between 20-25 flights of F9/FH, and no launch failures
-Will launch at least another 200-300 Starlink satellites, but nowhere near as many as currently projected
-Will get a Starship prototype above the von Karman line, but will not have SuperHeavy ready for an orbital attempt in 2020.
-Will successfully deliver a crew to the ISS

-Will have another year without any launch failures
-Will still be on track for a 2021 debut of Vulcan, but the first launch may slip by up to 6 months, probably due to BE-4 delays.
-Will announce some major upgrades for Centaur V (possibly IVF-based)

Smallsat Launchers:
-Rocketlab will launch successfully at least 10x this year
-Rocketlab will successfully recover a first stage, and maybe even refire it, but won't have reflown one by the end of the year
-At least one other US smallsat launcher will make it to orbit this year (my guess is either Virgin, Astra, or Firefly)
-At least one other major US smallsat launcher company (who has raised more than $10M) will go under -- though this won't be the year of the big shakeout yet
-At least one other major US smallsat launcher company will announce a plan for first stage reuse

-As mentioned above, SpaceX will launch at least another 200-300 Starlink satellites
-OneWeb will successfully launch at least 8 batches of satellites (a bit less than half their constellation), and will be getting into the one launch per month cadence they had been planning on.
-At least one more megaconstellation will be announced with >500 satellites
-At least one more megaconstellation will either be canceled, go dormant, or formally merge with one of their competitors

Satellite servicing:
-The NG MEV mission will successfully rendezvous and capture their client spacecraft, and begin life extension operations.
-The Astroscale ELSA-d mission will launch, and successfully complete at least part of its technology demonstration
-Altius will fly a bunch of DogTags and land at least one more major constellation customer for them (I'm biased).
-No major progress on space debris regulations will happen this year, thought he concern will continue to grow.
-There will be at least one major debris-related incident this year

-SLS/Orion EM-1 first flight will slip by at least another 6 months compared to the current official date.
-EUS work will start, but will also be behind schedule

-NASA will award three integrated lander efforts -- the Blue/NG/LM national team will be one of the winners
-Gateway will continue progressing, but no new major gateway elements will be awarded in 2020
-NASA will continue to get insufficient funds to meet 2024, but won't formally announce a slip yet.
-No CLPS missions or private lunar missions will be launched in 2020.
-At least two additional CLPS missions will be awarded -- at least one to a bigger company (LM or Blue), and at least one to a smaller company (Masten, etc).

Commercial Crew/Cargo:
-Both Boeing and SpaceX will successfully deliver crew to the ISS this year, though at least one mission will have a serious close-call/anomaly.
-All CRS flights will be successful this year

I could probably go on, but that's enough predictions for now.


Offline Oumuamua

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #36 on: 01/03/2020 01:41 pm »

-Over 120 launches this year.
-China will again have more launches than the USA
-At least 5 new launcher families will attempt a first orbital launch.
-At least 6 orbital launch failures this year.
-one of SpaceX starship prototoypes will have a RUD/failed landing.
-There will be another debris generating event/collision in space, generating >100 trackable parts.
-Encouraged by the return of US manned spaceflight a major space project (commercial space station) will be announced with funding and with respected people/companies that support it (not just a powerpoint).
-SLS slips further by at least half a year

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #37 on: 01/05/2020 03:07 am »
Lets do this...

1. Spaceship SN1 does not fly until late late Q1 or early to middle Q2
2. Boca Chica residents all settle with SpaceX and vacate BC by the end of 2020
3. Virgin Galactic has a few more (perhaps manned) test flights but neither Branson nor paying customers go to space in 2020.
4. SpaceX has 1 loss of Starlink satellites due to launch failure or orbit insertion failure.
5. SpaceX recovers 40% of all F9 launch fairing.
6. SpaceX achieves 23 successful launches in 2020.
7. FH's main core lands safely.
8. Starlink goes live for paying customers in Q3-Q4 2020.
9. Musk unveils Mars-Specific TBM hardware during his yearly SpaceX update.
10. Musk gives more details about the pressurized version of the Cybertruck for Mars during his yearly SpaceX update.
11. Year 4 - SLS continues its slow death (more delays, more funding cuts).
12. JWST is delayed again.
13. Mars 2020 Rover launches on time (Robotic and Deep Space - the one thing that NASA knows how to do well).
14. There are no Alien signals detected coming out of the astronomy community.
15. A flat earther launches to space, sees the curvature of the earth, then claims he was seeing a simulation projected onto his retina from the sides of the ship's windows.
« Last Edit: 01/06/2020 03:07 am by moreno7798 »
The only humans that make no mistakes are the ones that do nothing. The only mistakes that are failures are the ones where nothing is learned.

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #38 on: 01/06/2020 02:53 am »
- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)
What's the point of making a prediction that is entirely subjective?

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2020
« Reply #39 on: 01/06/2020 03:40 am »
- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)
What's the point of making a prediction that is entirely subjective?
it's my prediction and it's not entirely subjective.

Did you want to nitpick the rest too? Not a good look.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY


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