Author Topic: Predictions 2019  (Read 32036 times)

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #80 on: 07/03/2019 01:30 pm »
I’m always amazed how posts ignor the topic the thread was setup to discuss and go off in totally unrelated directions.
Yeah it was my question about why NZ didn't get a bar in the chart that spawned that. Let's bring it around back to predictions.

I predict people will ignore this reminder :)
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Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #81 on: 10/28/2019 04:03 pm »
OK so it's a little early to be checking predictions but most of these can be evaluated already.

Predictions for spaceflight for 2019

SpaceX will reach orbit at least 12 times with Falcon 9 and at least twice with Falcon Heavy

Yup this came true. 1 point.

The SpaceX circumlunar tourist flight will make headlines again

Got this one too.  1 point.

SLS, Orion and JWST will all continue to be money pits but will all keep going nonetheless

Unfortunately this came true too. 1 point.

At least 2 exomoons will be confirmed

Nope. I was too optimistic on this one.

At least 2 more “earth analogues”, or earth-size planets in the habitable zone will be found, both within 40 light years

Yes, this came true. 1 point.

NASA’s InSight lander will find evidence of liquid water where it drills

Nope. Instead, they had a problem with the drill. However this still may come true. 0 points.

NASA’s Curiosity rover will find more evidence of organic compounds

Yup. Curiosity detected methane. 1 point.

NASA’s TESS will detect exactly a whole bunch of planets

Yes, TESS found exactly a whole bunch of planets. 1 point.

Blue Origin will take people into space before the end of the year

Nope. Blue Origin didn't launch anything all year, unless I missed something. 0 points.

SpaceX will start delivering commercial crew to the ISS

I was slightly too optimistic on this one. 0 points.

Well I got 6/10 this year. Over 50% is a pass!
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #82 on: 10/28/2019 04:09 pm »
OK so it's a little early to be checking predictions but most of these can be evaluated already.

Predictions for spaceflight for 2019

*snip*

NASA’s InSight lander will find evidence of liquid water where it drills

Nope. Instead, they had a problem with the drill. However this still may come true. 0 points.

*snip*

InSight doesn't have a drill, nor is there any means of detecting water with the heat flow probe, so that one can't come true no matter what.
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Offline ncb1397

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #83 on: 10/28/2019 05:05 pm »
OK so it's a little early to be checking predictions but most of these can be evaluated already.

Predictions for spaceflight for 2019

*snip*

NASA’s InSight lander will find evidence of liquid water where it drills

Nope. Instead, they had a problem with the drill. However this still may come true. 0 points.

*snip*

InSight doesn't have a drill, nor is there any means of detecting water with the heat flow probe, so that one can't come true no matter what.

Sort of. Thermal conductivity of soil is affected by liquid water content.

OK so it's a little early to be checking predictions but most of these can be evaluated already.

Predictions for spaceflight for 2019

SpaceX will reach orbit at least 12 times with Falcon 9 and at least twice with Falcon Heavy

Yup this came true. 1 point.


Falcon 9 has flown 8 times this year. 4 more is doable but hardly assured.

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #84 on: 11/15/2019 02:36 am »
Okay here goes:

- WRONG (thankfully) - though could have been right if a couple things happened a little differently.

Geopolitical tensions come to a head like I thought they would this year. A “Cuban missile crisis” event overshadows DM-2 and Christmas/New Year’s, the idea of a Space Force gets big boost because of this, war drums ring in 2020, will severely disrupt the scheduled flights of Western satellites and astronauts flying aboard Russian rockets

- WRONG - due to payloads not being ready we’re at 11 launches with approx. 2 more to go. Good year for SX nonetheless.

SpaceX flies 20 F9/FH launches next year, all successfully

- WRONG - Beresheet crashed due to an engine failure. No new missions close to launch readiness, though contracts have been let out for some firms to build landers to fly in next 2-3 years.

SpaceIL lander launched by SX lands successfully on Moon. By end of year more private lunar missions are on their way to the launch pad

- HALF RIGHT - No pot smoking on podcasts at least, but there were some “out there” moments this year too.

Elon Musk dials back his more “out there” antics, i.e. no more pot smoking on podcasts, etc., presents a more business-like demeanor

- RIGHT - Nice unveiling, getting ready to launch. There’s still time for me to be wrong about no launches though :)

BFS/Starship test prototype unveiled and transported to Boca Chica but no flights before end of year, close though

- WRONG - not happened yet. Thinking it will happen in 2020 though.

Elon announces another customer for a human passenger Starship flight

- WRONG - DM-1 flew in March, which warmed my heart. But the Crew Dragon explosion in April plus parachute issues caused DM-2 to slip into 2020.

DM-1 successfully flies in June, DM-2 successfully flies with crew just two weeks before Christmas 2019

- HALF RIGHT - OFT-1 is set for next month (December) and CFT has indeed been pushed into 2020.

Boeing Starliner uncrewed flight flies in November, crewed flight pushed into mid-2020

- WRONG - no US orbital launch failures. The last EXOS suborbital launch failed. There’s still time for me to be right but I don’t want to be right about this. Cheering for success!

One US orbital launch failure, probably involving a smaller launcher (Pegasus/Virgin Orbit/Vector, etc.) Big players are successful

- WRONG - Electron didn’t make double digits this year, and thankfully there were no anomalies. Wallops pad still in work.

Electron flies 10 times with one anomaly, the Wallops pad is on line at end of year

- WRONG - Not happening till 2020 apparently. Pace has slowed on program.

New Shepard FINALLY puts people over the Karman line, space tourist flights finally start

- HALF RIGHT - VG did indeed cross 50 miles in February with Beth Moses aboard along w/2 pilots. No Karm line flights yet. Still time to change this.

Virgin Galactic puts people above USAF space line at 50 miles, one lightly loaded flight goes past Karman line

- HALF RIGHT - Stratolaunch did indeed take to the skies, but now it’s not going anywhere, no captive carry for Pegasus, probably no launches at all in the future.

Stratolaunch plane makes first flight, does Pegasus captive carry flight before end of 2019

- RIGHT - and what a flyby it was! Very much unexpected, especially the flattened shape.

New Horizons flies past Ultima Thule and mission makes remarkable discovery regarding Kuiper Belt, Ultima Thule flyby shocks even veteran space observers with what it discovers

- WRONG - the mole is struggling, Martian soil properties possibly to blame.

InSight’s mole makes it down 16 feet and discovers habitable environment. Follow on plans made for an Insight 2 probe with ability to search for life underground

- RIGHT - GJ 357 d, 31 light years away.

TESS discovers system with possible Earth-like planet around a bright nearby star

- WRONG - Not yet, though planned for next month. Will revisit then.

CHEOPS launches successfully and starts its exoplanet discovery mission

- HALF RIGHT - the Neptune sized exomoon, though not fully confirmed, looks promising

First exomoon finally confirmed

- WRONG - as far as I know

Another exoplanet found to have a Saturn style ring system

- WRONG - not yet. I’ll say 2021.

Planet 9 confirmed, Planet 10 theorized in same manner as Planet 9 was

- HALF RIGHT - The orbiter succeeded though the lander crashed.

Chandrayaan lunar mission flies successfully

- RIGHT - The Long March 5 isn’t yet flying after its mission failure last year

Chang’e 5 Chinese lunar mission delayed to 2020 after rocket and spacecraft issues

- HALF RIGHT - Japanese had good year, Chinese had a few failures.

Arianespace successfully flies all missions as do Japanese. Russians and Chinese suffer a few launch failures/partial failures, though none on crewed flights

- RIGHT - Soyuz crew capsule having a good year.

Soyuz crew capsule flies successfully during its missions

- RIGHT - Nauka not ready though supposedly being prepped for a 2020 launch.

Russians don’t fly Nauka

- HALF RIGHT - Haven’t seen an official announcement, but 2021 is likely. Progress made on finishing the core stage and all 4 engines are mounted. No whispers yet, but I think they’ll come.

SLS first flight officially announced for 2021. Toward the end of the year the SLS program finally gets on track toward its new launch date with more optimism about meeting it, even as Congress whispers about possibly cancelling it.

- RIGHT - seems like things are on track for spring 2021.

By the end of the year JWST starts to overcome its problems, its 2021 launch date looks solid

- RIGHT - Europa lander cancelled for now. Europa Clipper still tracking toward 2023 as far as I know.

Europa lander shelved but Europa Clipper on solid footing toward 2022-24 launch

- RIGHT - Dragonfly is GO for Titan in the coming decade

Dragonfly picked as New Frontiers mission

- HALF RIGHT - Missions have been approved, I think there’s some funding, no solid launch dates though

First mission under new commercial Moon initiative approved, funded, and given launch date at end of year

- WRONG - Rest In Peace for the rover that could

Opportunity phones home early in 2019 and mission continues

- RIGHT - Methane and oxygen discoveries, some chatter about life though nothing definitive

Curiosity makes a discovery that reignites debate about present Martian life

- HALF RIGHT - there’s been a scientific data release to the public this week.

Parker Solar Probe makes discovery about sun that dramatically improves CME/solar flare predictions

- WRONG - No supernovae yet

There will be a supernova visible to the naked eye in the night sky sometime in 2019

- RIGHT - check out my threads in the space modeling and entertainment board in General Discussion!

I will finish at least one space related model

- RIGHT - The OmegA firing had some unexpected fireworks at the end that I missed (though caught with my video camera). Also my job is going away on New Year’s Eve, but I’m in a good position to transition to a new career.

I will attend at least one test firing in Promontory, though no launch trips because I will be in transition from my current job

13 wrong, 12 right, 10 half-right. Hmm...batting around .500 give or take to the minus side
« Last Edit: 11/15/2019 02:42 am by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline jebbo

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #85 on: 11/15/2019 02:09 pm »
- RIGHT - GJ 357 d, 31 light years away.

TESS discovers system with possible Earth-like planet around a bright nearby star

Hmm ... I'd downgrade this to HALF at best. It is in the temperate zone but at 6x Me, this is almost certainly a mini-Neptune; it is well into the region where there is a thick H/He envelope.

BTW this criticism applies at least as much to astronomers as here. There is too much careless use of "habitable zone" and "Earth-like", where what they really mean are:
- "habitable zone" = "zone where liquid water could possibly exist if a truly earth-like planet was there"
- "Earth-like" = "approximately Earth radius; substitute Venus-like and you are just as accurate"

[ feeling grumpy ;-) ]

--- Tony
« Last Edit: 11/15/2019 02:22 pm by jebbo »

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #86 on: 11/15/2019 06:40 pm »
- RIGHT - GJ 357 d, 31 light years away.

TESS discovers system with possible Earth-like planet around a bright nearby star

Hmm ... I'd downgrade this to HALF at best. It is in the temperate zone but at 6x Me, this is almost certainly a mini-Neptune; it is well into the region where there is a thick H/He envelope.

BTW this criticism applies at least as much to astronomers as here. There is too much careless use of "habitable zone" and "Earth-like", where what they really mean are:
- "habitable zone" = "zone where liquid water could possibly exist if a truly earth-like planet was there"
- "Earth-like" = "approximately Earth radius; substitute Venus-like and you are just as accurate"

[ feeling grumpy ;-) ]

--- Tony

I didn’t know it was 6 earth masses. Yeah that does change the picture a little bit. Point taken.
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #87 on: 12/20/2019 02:23 pm »
Lets' see how wrong I am this year...

1. Starship Hopper v1 flies Q1 2019
2. Starship Hopper v2 (orbital) flies Q2 2019
3. Starship flies Q3 2019
4. Super Heavy flies Q4 2019
5. Crew Dragon does not fly until Q2 2019 because of children fights in the District of Columbia
6. Blue Origin flies someone to space in 2019
7. Richard Branson flies to space in 2019
8. StratoLaunch flies 3 satellites to orbit in 2019
9. Musk unveils Mars ISRU hardware in 2019
10. Three #dearmoon participants are introduced
11. Rocketlab flies 7 times to space
12. Rocket Lab unveils plans for a new rocket
13. SLS continues its slow death

1. Nope. Q2
2. Nope.
3. Nope.
4. Nope.
5. Nope.
6. Nope.
7. Bruhaha!...
8. ?.... Nonne?
9. Nope.
10. Nope.
11. 6.
12. Yes. reusable rockets.
13. More delays, more funding cuts.
« Last Edit: 12/20/2019 03:28 pm by moreno7798 »
The only humans that make no mistakes are the ones that do nothing. The only mistakes that are failures are the ones where nothing is learned.

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #88 on: 12/20/2019 03:31 pm »
13. SLS continues its slow death
13. More delays, more funding cuts.
Actually, that's a "Nope" as well.  ;)

Offline woods170

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #89 on: 12/20/2019 04:18 pm »
13. SLS continues its slow death
13. More delays, more funding cuts.
Actually, that's a "Nope" as well.  ;)

Wrong. delayed from 2020 to 2021.

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #90 on: 12/20/2019 04:26 pm »
13. SLS continues its slow death
13. More delays, more funding cuts.
Actually, that's a "Nope" as well.  ;)
Wrong. delayed from 2020 to 2021.
His prediction was SLS would "continue it's slow death." Meanwhile NASA has announced they are seeking an extra order of 10 cores from Boeing, 6 Orion spacecraft from Lockheed Martin, and 6 service modules from the ESA.

That is a sound "Nope!" on the whole "slow death" thing.  :)
« Last Edit: 12/20/2019 04:27 pm by jadebenn »

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #91 on: 12/20/2019 10:18 pm »
13. SLS continues its slow death
13. More delays, more funding cuts.
Actually, that's a "Nope" as well.  ;)
Wrong. delayed from 2020 to 2021.
I know Jim Bridenstine said 2021, but I don't think that's official yet.  It may just mean that they are thinking right near the end of next year and they don't know if it will be just inside of 2020 or not..  We may have to wait and see yet if this one is right or wrong.

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #92 on: 12/21/2019 04:21 am »
13. SLS continues its slow death
13. More delays, more funding cuts.
Actually, that's a "Nope" as well.  ;)
Wrong. delayed from 2020 to 2021.
I know Jim Bridenstine said 2021, but I don't think that's official yet.  It may just mean that they are thinking right near the end of next year and they don't know if it will be just inside of 2020 or not..  We may have to wait and see yet if this one is right or wrong.

As far as I'm concerned, the mere existence of a spaceship called "Starship" puts SLS on a path to a reckoning - Do we continue to fund a single use then throw-away rocket for billions..... or do we just pay a private company for the same result at a fraction of the cost?
« Last Edit: 12/21/2019 04:23 am by moreno7798 »
The only humans that make no mistakes are the ones that do nothing. The only mistakes that are failures are the ones where nothing is learned.

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #93 on: 12/21/2019 04:32 am »
As far as I'm concerned, the mere existence of a spaceship called "Starship" puts SLS on a path to a reckoning - Do we continue to fund a single use then throw-away rocket for billions..... or do we just pay a private company for the same result at a fraction of the cost?
Yeah! What use is the Saturn V when the Space Shuttle is right around the corner?

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #94 on: 12/21/2019 04:55 am »
13. SLS continues its slow death
13. More delays, more funding cuts.
Actually, that's a "Nope" as well.  ;)
Wrong. delayed from 2020 to 2021.
I know Jim Bridenstine said 2021, but I don't think that's official yet.  It may just mean that they are thinking right near the end of next year and they don't know if it will be just inside of 2020 or not..  We may have to wait and see yet if this one is right or wrong.

As far as I'm concerned, the mere existence of a spaceship called "Starship" puts SLS on a path to a reckoning - Do we continue to fund a single use then throw-away rocket for billions..... or do we just pay a private company for the same result at a fraction of the cost?
Every launcher will meet its day of reckoning.  There is always going to be something better to replace each launcher.  If Starship is wildly successful, somebody will eventually come up with something better.  While I think there is a good chance Starship will work, I've learned long ago the value of not counting your chickens until they've hatched.  If Starship takes longer than Elon expects to evolve into a highly capable ship, SLS may get us established on the Moon in the coming decade.  If it does that with 10 to 15 or even more flights before replacement, then it may be considered a success by history.  I would have preferred a different choice than SLS, but SLS is what we've got.  Until SpaceX or someone else flies a proven replacement, NASA will not be funding a replacement for deep space human flights.  So, I hope SLS works as advertised.

Offline freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #95 on: 12/21/2019 05:34 am »
13. SLS continues its slow death
13. More delays, more funding cuts.
Actually, that's a "Nope" as well.  ;)
Wrong. delayed from 2020 to 2021.
I know Jim Bridenstine said 2021, but I don't think that's official yet.  It may just mean that they are thinking right near the end of next year and they don't know if it will be just inside of 2020 or not..  We may have to wait and see yet if this one is right or wrong.

As far as I'm concerned, the mere existence of a spaceship called "Starship" puts SLS on a path to a reckoning - Do we continue to fund a single use then throw-away rocket for billions..... or do we just pay a private company for the same result at a fraction of the cost?
Every launcher will meet its day of reckoning.  There is always going to be something better to replace each launcher.  If Starship is wildly successful, somebody will eventually come up with something better.  While I think there is a good chance Starship will work, I've learned long ago the value of not counting your chickens until they've hatched.  If Starship takes longer than Elon expects to evolve into a highly capable ship, SLS may get us established on the Moon in the coming decade.  If it does that with 10 to 15 or even more flights before replacement, then it may be considered a success by history.  I would have preferred a different choice than SLS, but SLS is what we've got.  Until SpaceX or someone else flies a proven replacement, NASA will not be funding a replacement for deep space human flights.  So, I hope SLS works as advertised.

SLS hasn't even flown and it has a decade of documented criticisms pointing out better, cheaper and more capable alternatives.    Until 2019, the POR didn't even have SLS/Orion doing more than flying circles in the vicinity of the moon  ...  and actually, now the POC still has SLS/Orion flying barely to the moon vicinity.   Actually landing, and delivering the lander to the moon will be done by cost efficient private enterprise rockets.     So it very much looks like NASA will be funding " deep space human flights" on hardware different from SLS/Orion (even if SLS isn't dead yet).

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #96 on: 12/21/2019 07:24 am »
SLS hasn't even flown and it has a decade of documented criticisms pointing out better, cheaper and more capable alternatives.    Until 2019, the POR didn't even have SLS/Orion doing more than flying circles in the vicinity of the moon  ...  and actually, now the POC still has SLS/Orion flying barely to the moon vicinity.   Actually landing, and delivering the lander to the moon will be done by cost efficient private enterprise rockets.     So it very much looks like NASA will be funding " deep space human flights" on hardware different from SLS/Orion (even if SLS isn't dead yet).
This is why the predictions threads are my favorite. You go open each year's and you find pages upon pages of this stuff. Naturally, they've aged like milk.

Some people just never learn.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2019 07:27 am by jadebenn »

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #97 on: 12/22/2019 07:03 am »
Let's look at my personal (late) predictions:

Correct:
Commercial in-general:
* Commercial crew will not deliver humans to the ISS before 2020
SpaceX:
* The BFR or StarShip or whatever Musk's calling it now will not fly this year
* Another major design change to its will be announced before the end of the year but after this has been posted
* Delays from the Dragon explosion will cause 4 or more months of schedule slip
* Cargo Dragon will fly to the ISS as expected, and nothing will go wrong
NASA:
* Any and all predictions that the SLS will be cancelled will not come to pass (like in every one of these threads before ::) )
[Note: I take an absolutely unhealthy amount of satisfaction in rubbing this one in said naysayers' faces] :)
* The SLS core stage will complete assembly by the end of the year
Lunar Plan:
* Bridenstine will get funding for the 2024 moon landing from Congress, but it won't be as much as he asks for
* LOP-G will get a better name

Incorrect:
SpaceX:
* SpaceX will have a hard time raising capital due to the difficulties at Tesla negatively impacting Elon's reputation
NASA:
* The Orion LES test will, in some way, not proceed as planned (I dunno about this one, just got a gut feeling that'll hopefully be proven wrong)
Lunar Plan:
* Boeing and Lockheed will submit bids for the lunar lander. SpaceX will not.
[Note: Why the heck did I even think this?] ???

Unknown:
General:
* More predictions as a percentage of total responses will be wrong in this thread than last year's
[Note: Not even going to bother seeing whether or not this one is right. Too much work.]
* Plans to re-use old Crew Dragon capsules as cargo vehicles will not be implemented due to the accident. At least, not by the end of the year.
[Note: I believe said plans were indeed abandoned, but it was entirely unrelated to the capsule accident.]
« Last Edit: 12/22/2019 07:05 am by jadebenn »

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #98 on: 12/22/2019 05:15 pm »
With the year almost over, how did I do?  From the following post.  Results marked with <<??>>
<snip>

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (I guessed 30 in the poll again, that's probably high but 15+ would be a win for this prediction) <<Half right, no losses of payloads (the ground test loss of the DM1 capsule wasn't a payload loss) but the cadence fell through the floor. >>
- SpaceX will launch less than 6 missions with expendable cores (up from last year's prediction of 3 or less)  <<With 13 missions, this was a gimme>
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (they missed 95% which was my prediction, so being more conservative) <<close, the loss of the FH center one time out of two dings them. if you count the core lost at sea then it's two FH centers>>
- FH will launch at least twice, at least once with mission success but not all cores will necessarily be recovered <<100%. two launches, two mission successes, 5 of 6 or 4 of 6 cores recovered>>
- Boca Chica will not launch anything orbital in 2019 but progress will be made and there will be suborbital hops (revised from last year) <<Yup>>
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC (new) << seems like there's some bypassing>>
- We'll see a testbed vehicle using Raptors to reduce BFS risk unveiled and something will fly from BC <<Yup>>
- CommsX constellation will see at least another 10 test satellites launched (rideshare or dedicated mission) <<How about 120?, Yup>>
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and start serious tunneling on more than one project. Good progress on Dodger Stadium link, if not actually completed. <<Not sure I'd count the Vegas thing as "major" and I lost track of the Dodger bore.. meh.. 1/3 right??>>
- Skeptics will continue to deny that TBC is doing anything special and doubt the speedups <<Yup>>
- Dragon 2 will enter service, or at least trials, including with passengers (repeat of last year) <<DM-1 was a trial, but no passengers. 1/2 right>>
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last year) <<Cybertruck and an ATV together make me 1/2 right? ... nah. Miss >>
- SpaceX will solve fairing recovery and at least 40% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 1 fairing half will be reused successfully. << Not "solved" they are still iterating, but I think they are close to 40% if not over. And a pair at least have been reused. 3/4 right>>
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration << don't think leg and flaperon gyrations are "radical" so no >>
- There will be at least one more name change of one or the other or both elements in 2019 <<Nope. yaay!>>
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc) <<Nope, sniff...>>

- Starliner will not launch any passengers in 2019 (but Dragon 2 will, see above) <<True, Rosie is a bot... part two is just me being cocky about a prediction scored elsewhere so doesn't count against me except for style points. 100%>>

- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there (threepeat) << meh. Dropped off the radar >>
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur (threepeat) << meh. Dropped off the radar >>
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and kind of a gimme) << Yep. Tory still doing the needful. >>

- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 6 times, some with paying cargo. and some with humans, but possibly not for pay. <<Pfft... 0% correct. Sadly>>
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat) <<not really, no>>
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat) << I think he was nice this year, prove me wrong>>
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme) << 100% >>

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme) <<Obvs gimme every year>>
- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme) <<Yep but it seems to be generating at least 1/2 decent proposals >>

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success.  <<Near miss... they got 6 launches not 8, but all 6 were successes>>

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2019 <<nope>>
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl <<nope>>
- Stratolaunch's Roc will progress from taxi tests to have independent flight, and captive carry tests as well, but no launch of Pegasus or anything else. <<sort of. It got to independent flight, but not carry tests, however it also did not launch "Pegasus or anything">>

- There will be a shakeout in the smallsat launcher biz. At least one of Vector/Firefly won't launch anything and at least one startup in existence at the start of 2019 will exit by the end of 2019 << I wish I could say I didn't nail this 100%. But I did. >>
- XCOR won't come back from the dead, sadly <<correct, sadly>>

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL). << almost!!! Maybe next year>>

- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it (repeat, gimme)  <<Actually a major overhaul and it's pretty awesome. Whinging has been moderate, not severe>>
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts (repeat, gimme)  <<correct, sadly>>

------------


Not too bad. but I went conservative and took a lot of gimmes.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #99 on: 12/22/2019 05:18 pm »

* Any and all predictions that the SLS will be cancelled will not come to pass (like in every one of these threads before ::) )
[Note: I take an absolutely unhealthy amount of satisfaction in rubbing this one in said naysayers' faces] :)
Yes, yes you do. It's not a good look.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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