Author Topic: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread  (Read 190074 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #820 on: 09/13/2022 04:53 am »
https://twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1569519902490509313

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Onward to asteroid impact! Congratulations to the @ASI_spazio team for @LICIACube's successful deployment on the @NASA #DARTMission, safely housed from Earth to asteroid belt in our own satellite dispenser.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #821 on: 09/21/2022 06:00 pm »
Todays state of of nation presentation is now available on their webpage. This is slideshow, video later today.

https://www.rocketlabusa.com/investorday

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #822 on: 09/23/2022 01:01 am »
I grabbed this from the video of the presentation on YouTube. I did delete a bunch of "uh"s, and added a bunch of periods and comas in an attempt to make this readable, but if you don't trust me you can go watch it yourself. The timestamps are 1:55:50 - 1:56:20


"What we have seen is that the quality of the customer really increased, to where most of the deals we do now are bulk buys. Which we really like; they're not ones and twosies. You know, a customer will go and fly on a ride share, do a tech demo, and then to actually put their constellation in an orbit that can be commercial they'll come to a dedicated platform where we can place their their Assets in the exact orbit that we like to see."

I thought it was an interesting reversal on the usual narrative of rideshares and smallsat launchers.
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline trimeta

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #823 on: 09/23/2022 01:22 am »
I grabbed this from the video of the presentation on YouTube. I did delete a bunch of "uh"s, and added a bunch of periods and comas in an attempt to make this readable, but if you don't trust me you can go watch it yourself. The timestamps are 1:55:50 - 1:56:20


"What we have seen is that the quality of the customer really increased, to where most of the deals we do now are bulk buys. Which we really like; they're not ones and twosies. You know, a customer will go and fly on a ride share, do a tech demo, and then to actually put their constellation in an orbit that can be commercial they'll come to a dedicated platform where we can place their their Assets in the exact orbit that we like to see."

I thought it was an interesting reversal on the usual narrative of rideshares and smallsat launchers.

They also emphasized this when highlighting their upcoming launch manifest, pointing out that their launches for HawkEye 360, Synspective, Kinéis, and BlackSky are all part of block buys (3, 3, 5, and 7 launches, respectively, although Synspective and BlackSky only have one remaining each). Basically, suggesting that for some constellations with <10 elements, putting up each satellite on its own Electron is cheaper than buying out a single Falcon 9, and you get to deploy each satellite directly to its final orbit with no phasing. (And yes, obviously if your whole constellation is <10 satellites, you could rideshare with someone else's constellation, but that would make inserting into the optimal orbit even harder, since you need to compromise with the comanifested payloads.)

I guess I should put an asterisk that each HawkEye 360 launch itself contains three satellites, each Kinéis launch contains five, and each BlackSky contains two. So those constellations contain more satellites than launches, and will still need to do some on-orbit phasing. But presumably less than if everything were in one single launch, and still cheaper than a dedicated Falcon 9 for the bunch.

Offline Asteroza

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #824 on: 09/23/2022 03:18 am »
I grabbed this from the video of the presentation on YouTube. I did delete a bunch of "uh"s, and added a bunch of periods and comas in an attempt to make this readable, but if you don't trust me you can go watch it yourself. The timestamps are 1:55:50 - 1:56:20


"What we have seen is that the quality of the customer really increased, to where most of the deals we do now are bulk buys. Which we really like; they're not ones and twosies. You know, a customer will go and fly on a ride share, do a tech demo, and then to actually put their constellation in an orbit that can be commercial they'll come to a dedicated platform where we can place their their Assets in the exact orbit that we like to see."

I thought it was an interesting reversal on the usual narrative of rideshares and smallsat launchers.

They also emphasized this when highlighting their upcoming launch manifest, pointing out that their launches for HawkEye 360, Synspective, Kinéis, and BlackSky are all part of block buys (3, 3, 5, and 7 launches, respectively, although Synspective and BlackSky only have one remaining each). Basically, suggesting that for some constellations with <10 elements, putting up each satellite on its own Electron is cheaper than buying out a single Falcon 9, and you get to deploy each satellite directly to its final orbit with no phasing. (And yes, obviously if your whole constellation is <10 satellites, you could rideshare with someone else's constellation, but that would make inserting into the optimal orbit even harder, since you need to compromise with the comanifested payloads.)

I guess I should put an asterisk that each HawkEye 360 launch itself contains three satellites, each Kinéis launch contains five, and each BlackSky contains two. So those constellations contain more satellites than launches, and will still need to do some on-orbit phasing. But presumably less than if everything were in one single launch, and still cheaper than a dedicated Falcon 9 for the bunch.

That's an interesting market inflection point there. That implies any small constellation of 10-30 sats (also potential future bespoke constellations for a customer from some extant bus for example) with a wide orbit or RAAN spread, based on sub-250kg class small sats, is the specific sweet spot for Electron-like launchers.

To illustrate, think of a country specific spread of sats versus some global system. Where is the tipping point between being a data customer of a global observation system that provides hourly coverage versus having your own sats? I think the rough math for a country specific constellation is 24 SSO sats offset by an hour each for hourly coverage, but a low SSO is on the order of 100 minute orbital period. If a given sat can observe a +/-5 minutes footprint, then "continuous" hourly global coverage is 24x10=240 sats roughly (if you take the Sentinel-1 SAR sats as a reference, back calculate from 12 day baseline for one sat, you need 288). The math get funky from here, if you aren't doing all dedicated small constellation single launches (instead bunching 2 or three on a launch and doing some drift), versus an alternative global system that would be launching on a F9 class launch, filling out one or two whole planes per launch. A global operator would need at least 10 country specific constellations to justify the switch over to a single multitenant constellation versus operating 10 or less small constellations as a service.

A country specific constellation of 24 sats at say $5 million launch cost starts at $120 million, before satellite cost. If you can get the sats down to $250,000 per, that's another $6 million. With other odds and ends, you are looking at $150 million. If lifetime is only 5 years, that's averages out to $30 million a year. While this is a very primitive example (no cost cutting optimizations, like only 8-16 sats for optical observation with sunlight), who can afford a country specific bespoke constellation?

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #825 on: 09/23/2022 04:38 am »
In case of Blacksky constellations they are also sell quite few satellite components. That trusted customer-relationship is very important for extra business.

RL would like to pickup contracts where they provide satellite, ground services and launch with customer just paying service fee. Customer doesn't have large upfront cost and any failures satellite or LV would be on RL. It a new business model for space but not for terrestrial businesses.

One thing that has never come up is satellite refueling. Does Photon or Globalstar satellites  support it?. Something new satellite owners should be allowing for.
« Last Edit: 09/23/2022 04:40 am by TrevorMonty »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #826 on: 09/27/2022 05:56 am »
https://twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1574578944715542528

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👂Tune in to the latest episode of 'Making Sense of Space' where @Peter_J_Beck talks all things launch with @DeutscheBank's Edison Yu. https://bit.ly/3E0euKS

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #827 on: 09/27/2022 09:04 am »
https://twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1574578944715542528

Quote
Tune in to the latest episode of 'Making Sense of Space' where @Peter_J_Beck talks all things launch with @DeutscheBank's Edison Yu. https://bit.ly/3E0euKS
Thanks FutureSpace for link.
 If you heard a few of Peter's interviews before then you find anything new in here.

 

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