Author Topic: Astra Space  (Read 288905 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #860 on: 11/08/2022 09:03 pm »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1590093041301213184

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Astra $ASTR Q3 results

Adj. EBITDA loss: $41.4m
Revenue: $2.8m
Cash: $150.5m

Laying off ~16%

Spacecraft Engine orders up to 237

https://investor.astra.com/news-releases/news-release-details/astra-announces-third-quarter-2022-financial-results

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #861 on: 11/08/2022 09:04 pm »
twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1590101754422743040

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CEO Chris Kemp: "We made the difficult but prudent decision to reduce our operating expenses to support our primary near-term objectives."

Astra aims to begin test flying its Rocket 4.0 "in the latter part of 2023." $ASTR

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1590101830285115394

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$ASTR CFO Axel Martinez: “Top two priorities” are Spacecraft Engine and Rocket 4.0 development, and “optimizing our cost structure .. to increase our runway into 2024.”

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #862 on: 11/09/2022 03:43 am »
Quote
Astra $ASTR Q3 results

Adj. EBITDA loss: $41.4m
Revenue: $2.8m
Cash: $150.5m

Laying off ~16%

Spacecraft Engine orders up to 237

At this burn rate they have less than a year of runway left. Laying off staff means it could take longer for Rocket 4.0 to be completed.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline eeergo

Re: Astra Space
« Reply #863 on: 11/09/2022 03:18 pm »
Quote
Astra $ASTR Q3 results

Adj. EBITDA loss: $41.4m
Revenue: $2.8m
Cash: $150.5m

Laying off ~16%

Spacecraft Engine orders up to 237

At this burn rate they have less than a year of runway left. Laying off staff means it could take longer for Rocket 4.0 to be completed.

Going out on a limb there, but guessing Rocket 4 will not happen looks like a safe bet.
-DaviD-

Offline edzieba

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #864 on: 11/09/2022 03:34 pm »
They're intending to fly with a flight-proven engine (Firefly's Reaver), flying with flight-proven avionics, and they already have a production line set up for vehicles of a similar scale built out of the same materials using the same processes. Systems engineering and integration are by no means trivial, but this is more of an integration problem than one of designing an entirely new vehicle from the engines up.

Offline MattMason

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #865 on: 11/09/2022 03:41 pm »
Quote
Astra $ASTR Q3 results

Adj. EBITDA loss: $41.4m
Revenue: $2.8m
Cash: $150.5m

Laying off ~16%

Spacecraft Engine orders up to 237

At this burn rate they have less than a year of runway left. Laying off staff means it could take longer for Rocket 4.0 to be completed.

Rocket Lab's cadence and launch success record has been stellar this year, even launching a sat planned for a Soyuz. While there's still room in the smallsat market (RL knows this and wants to partially leave it so that Neutron can reach into medium-lift territory), the customer opportunities based on availability and reputation seem brutal. I don't see Astra making a recovery with Rocket 4 unless they make 3 consecutive flights, and if Firefly and RL or medium-lift providers aren't available for some reason. That's a lot of IFs in this more-rarified market because of Soyuz embargo. RL and ISRO is shining more with these opportunities. Astra would've, too, but they've missed this window. This delay could be their last unless they merge, in my opinion.
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Offline sdsds

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #866 on: 11/09/2022 04:35 pm »
Might Astra be intending to return to the equity market for more capital? Selling newly minted shares would dilute the value of existing shares, but it would give them some runway to avoid bankruptcy.
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Offline butters

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #867 on: 11/09/2022 05:01 pm »
Astra should put Rocket development on as slow a burner as possible while still maintaining in-house rocket development competency, focus on the lucrative mass market Hall thruster business, then electric satellite buses, and perhaps once they become a major player in LEO, they will have the finances and ideally also the first-party demand (like Starlink) for an RLV program. The Hall thrusters are the key to their future.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Astra Space
« Reply #868 on: 11/09/2022 05:26 pm »


Astra should put Rocket development on as slow a burner as possible while still maintaining in-house rocket development competency, focus on the lucrative mass market Hall thruster business, then electric satellite buses, and perhaps once they become a major player in LEO, they will have the finances and ideally also the first-party demand (like Starlink) for an RLV program. The Hall thrusters are the key to their future.

Survival mode maybe case of drop out of LV market and downsize to stage Hall thruster business makes them profitable. Shares would be worthless but would still have business.

Offline eeergo

Re: Astra Space
« Reply #869 on: 11/09/2022 05:42 pm »
Astra should put Rocket development on as slow a burner as possible while still maintaining in-house rocket development competency, focus on the lucrative mass market Hall thruster business, then electric satellite buses, and perhaps once they become a major player in LEO, they will have the finances and ideally also the first-party demand (like Starlink) for an RLV program. The Hall thrusters are the key to their future.

I clearly wasn't paying enough attention, but since when (prior to the recent reorganizations) did Astra have ion engine expertise, and why would they be competitive against more established providers, of which there are a fair number even when discounting pre-sanctions Russian/Chinese providers?
-DaviD-

Offline brussell

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #870 on: 11/09/2022 05:55 pm »
Astra should put Rocket development on as slow a burner as possible while still maintaining in-house rocket development competency, focus on the lucrative mass market Hall thruster business, then electric satellite buses, and perhaps once they become a major player in LEO, they will have the finances and ideally also the first-party demand (like Starlink) for an RLV program. The Hall thrusters are the key to their future.

I clearly wasn't paying enough attention, but since when (prior to the recent reorganizations) did Astra have ion engine expertise, and why would they be competitive against more established providers, of which there are a fair number even when discounting pre-sanctions Russian/Chinese providers?

Since they bought Apollo Fusion, and because they are 'murrican!

Offline eeergo

Re: Astra Space
« Reply #871 on: 11/09/2022 06:06 pm »
Thanks! Since I'm on a roll exhibiting my ignorance: how much of the "cash" from the Q3 report upthread is tied up in stock, if any, and how much of it is understood to have come from Apollo Fusion?


EDIT: Some quick googling threw the figure of $50M ($30M cash + $20M stock), is that accurate? If so, does that mean half of their valuation at the moment comes from that part of the company, if not more considering most of their business plan now revolves around that area, so its relative weight should have increased?
« Last Edit: 11/09/2022 06:11 pm by eeergo »
-DaviD-

Online niwax

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #872 on: 11/09/2022 06:20 pm »
Thanks! Since I'm on a roll exhibiting my ignorance: how much of the "cash" from the Q3 report upthread is tied up in stock, if any, and how much of it is understood to have come from Apollo Fusion?


EDIT: Some quick googling threw the figure of $50M ($30M cash + $20M stock), is that accurate? If so, does that mean half of their valuation at the moment comes from that part of the company, if not more considering most of their business plan now revolves around that area, so its relative weight should have increased?

Even better, their contract with the previous owners of Apollo has a clause that if Apollo hits its performance targets, they owe them another $85 million in cash by the end of next year to make up for performance-based bonuses that were cancelled due to the acquisition. So they can either go bankrupt from not selling any product, or from having to pay out performance bonuses. It's nice to have a choice.

Quote
The contingent consideration requires the Company to pay $75.0 million of additional consideration to Apollo’s former shareholders and option-holders, if Apollo meets certain customer revenue related milestones over a two and half year period ending on December 31, 2023. The contingent consideration is earned, which is a combination of total contract value and relevant payout ratio, if the contract with the customer is entered into after the acquisition date and 25% of revenue under the contract is recognized by December 31, 2023 under ASC 606. Contingent consideration is payable on a quarterly basis based on the milestones achieved. The fair value of the contingent consideration arrangement at the acquisition date was $18.4 million. The Company estimated the fair value of the contingent consideration using a Monte Carlo simulation model. This fair value measurement is based on significant inputs not observable in the market and thus represents a Level 3 measurement as defined in ASC 820. As of June 30, 2022, the contingent consideration recognized increased to $31.0 million as a result of changes in forecasted revenues subject to milestone payments and the passage of time. The Company has recognized $12.6 million in cumulative net losses on changes in fair value of contingent consideration from the Apollo Acquisition Date, of which $1.8 million and $17.3 million in loss was recognized in the condensed consolidated statement of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2022, respectively.

An additional $10.0 million of cash ("Cash Earnout") will be paid to employees of Apollo that joined Astra, subject to certain vesting conditions, as amended. The Cash Earnout is accounted for as compensation expense over the requisite service period in the post-acquisition period as the payment is subject to the employee's continued employment with the Company. The Company has recognized $8.4 million in compensation cost from the Apollo Acquisition Date, of which $1.2 million and $2.6 million in compensation cost was recognized in research and development expense in the condensed consolidated statement of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2022, respectively. The earned, but unpaid, amount of the Cash Earnout of $3.6 million and $3.9 million is recorded within accrued expenses and other current liabilities in the condensed consolidated balance sheet as of June 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively.
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Offline eeergo

Re: Astra Space
« Reply #873 on: 11/09/2022 06:28 pm »
Great info!

Yep, not many paths appear viable for Rocket 4...
-DaviD-

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #874 on: 11/09/2022 08:28 pm »
[<snip>
Even better, their contract with the previous owners of Apollo has a clause that if Apollo hits its performance targets, they owe them another $85 million in cash by the end of next year to make up for performance-based bonuses that were cancelled due to the acquisition. So they can either go bankrupt from not selling any product, or from having to pay out performance bonuses. It's nice to have a choice.
<snip>
Just out of curiosity. If Astra goes bankrupt. Can the industry do without the Apollo Fusion Hall thrusters?

Online niwax

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #875 on: 11/09/2022 08:37 pm »
[<snip>
Even better, their contract with the previous owners of Apollo has a clause that if Apollo hits its performance targets, they owe them another $85 million in cash by the end of next year to make up for performance-based bonuses that were cancelled due to the acquisition. So they can either go bankrupt from not selling any product, or from having to pay out performance bonuses. It's nice to have a choice.
<snip>
Just out of curiosity. If Astra goes bankrupt. Can the industry do without the Apollo Fusion Hall thrusters?

They will be picked apart and if the bankruptcy is handled even remotely well, Apollo will just keep going. If there are companies that have placed orders and made down payments, they will be part of the creditors that have first pick of the company to recover their assets. Under a debtor-in-possession agreement, the company can keep operating if that is deemed to provide a better chance of the creditors receiving their funds, and may even take on a bridge loan from those creditors to keep the business ticking over until it can be sold. That''s what OneWeb did, for example, because keeping orbit raising and holding on to launch contracts gave the creditors a much higher return than a fire sale.

If the worst happens, I'd expect the space systems business unit to be carved out and kept running pretty much instantly and possibly even be sold to one of their customers.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #876 on: 11/10/2022 01:50 am »
If Firefly can survive all the crap it went through, major lawsuits and a restructuring and abandoning aerospikes and then having war in Ukraine force their main owner to liquidate their shares... nearly dying at least twice before reaching orbit, I don't think we can totally write-off Astra already.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2022 01:52 am by Robotbeat »
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline imprezive

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #877 on: 11/10/2022 03:18 pm »
If Firefly can survive all the crap it went through, major lawsuits and a restructuring and abandoning aerospikes and then having war in Ukraine force their main owner to liquidate their shares... nearly dying at least twice before reaching orbit, I don't think we can totally write-off Astra already.

Firefly is arguably a lot more valuable than Astra. Not only do they have a bigger rocket but they have presumably good engines and a lunar lander with a NASA contract.

Offline edzieba

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #878 on: 11/10/2022 03:40 pm »
If Firefly can survive all the crap it went through, major lawsuits and a restructuring and abandoning aerospikes and then having war in Ukraine force their main owner to liquidate their shares... nearly dying at least twice before reaching orbit, I don't think we can totally write-off Astra already.

Firefly is arguably a lot more valuable than Astra. Not only do they have a bigger rocket but they have presumably good engines and a lunar lander with a NASA contract.
Neither are guarantees of viability (e.g. Masten also had a CLPS contract and plenty of well tested engines).

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Re: Astra Space
« Reply #879 on: 11/11/2022 12:41 am »
If Firefly can survive all the crap it went through, major lawsuits and a restructuring and abandoning aerospikes and then having war in Ukraine force their main owner to liquidate their shares... nearly dying at least twice before reaching orbit, I don't think we can totally write-off Astra already.

Firefly is arguably a lot more valuable than Astra. Not only do they have a bigger rocket but they have presumably good engines and a lunar lander with a NASA contract.
Neither are guarantees of viability (e.g. Masten also had a CLPS contract and plenty of well tested engines).
...and Masten has survived anyway (now owned by another company) and resumed operations.

Again, I wouldn't just assume Astra will die, here.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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