Mars will make it closest approach to Earth in 15 years, so there will be fake news circulating around Facebook about Mars being as big as a full moon, just like that email from 15 years ago.
NASA:SLS will continue being developed, and the first rocket is getting readyto be launched at early 2019....
More predictions please I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years
US, ESA, JAXA & RUSSIA try to negotiate deal to work together to return to Moon. No deal finalized in 2018 as concepts not worked out. 2a - Trump tries to include China with Congress balking. 2b - Trump tries to include India, Israel and UAE as possible partners (not settled in 2018)
Quote from: Eric Hedman on 12/19/2017 05:58 amUS, ESA, JAXA & RUSSIA try to negotiate deal to work together to return to Moon. No deal finalized in 2018 as concepts not worked out. 2a - Trump tries to include China with Congress balking. 2b - Trump tries to include India, Israel and UAE as possible partners (not settled in 2018)I don't have any great psychic impressions of the year ahead, but I am seriously under the impression that, at least per some of the recent statements that have come out relative to this new space directive, the current management of the country has no interest whatsoever in working with any other nations in space. I get the feeling they would back out of the ISS agreements, if they could.I base this on the recent statements that the US "now feels" that space is not a common inheritance of mankind, and is fair game to be grabbed, used and (likely) militarized at America's whim. All in service of making America the permanent pre-eminent space power on the planet. The theme seems to be that partnerships are seen by America's current management as weakening America's leadership position in space, rather than strengthening mankind's toehold in the solar system, and that the former is all the matters.With public statements along those lines, I would think it would be highly, highly unlikely that, at least under its current management, America would seek -- or even allow -- any new international partnerships on space exploration. So, my only real prediction is that, instead of seeing the US seeking new partnerships, as Eric suggests, we will see a lot of rhetoric about America needing to go it alone -- especially in a return to the Moon -- to ensure no one takes our "lead" away from us.The associated prediction, of course, is that Congress will approve no new funding to achieve an "America-forever-first-in-space" goal -- whether they think that's the goal we should be pursuing, or not...
General question regarding prediction threads. I see a lot of posts where people make statements along the lines of "X number of flights or more". Is that an acceptable prediction? If so, what's the limit? Is "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable? My take is you need to predict a specific outcome with little to no plus or minus. But that's my take and how I try to approach it - just didn't know if there was a forum consensus. I believe I even saw Lar make predictions with that sort of nomenclature. I predict there will be zero or more responses to this post...
Is "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable?
I predict that 2018 will end on December 31st
2018 is the year NASA returns.To the public NASA went away with the crash of Columbia in 2003. A few more missions occurred and then the Space Shuttles stopped. As the readers of this website know since then NASA has been returning to manned flight by getting companies to develop new space vehicles.The business press has discovered that California is going into recession. When companies fire people and close down the ordinary press will report it. Bad news in an election year is disliked by politicians, so they will look for good news. In 2018 NASA may have lots of good news.In previous years COTS and Commercial Resupply Services have transported cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).In January/February the Falcon Heavy is due to have a test flight. This will be the biggest American rocket currently flying. (Saturn V has retired and SLS is still in development.)In the spring/summer Lunar CATALYST partner Moon Express hopes to land 30kg of payload on the Moon.Commercial Crew Program company SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2.0 to the ISS in spring 2018. A Boeing CST-100 is due at the ISS in summer 2018. Later flights will carry people.In 2018 NASA's back. It will return to the International Space Station and is preparing to return to the Moon.
Quote from: Johnnyhinbos on 12/21/2017 06:30 pmIs "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable? Totally. There will be no formal winner and you yourself will be the judge of how you did. My favorite was Lar's prediction that Blue Origin would do at least four New Shepard flights this year. They only did one so he considered the prediction 25% right
I'm just going to focus on the areas that I follow most closely, rather than sounding off on matters that I have no knowledge of 99 launches in total worldwide. 5 failures.SpaceX- FH flies in February, nominally successful mission but some anomalies lead to the next flight being 3elayed until towards the end of the year.- F9 remains the most flown vehicle in the world, with 23 flights. I think there's an even chance of a failure. Fewer landings than expected as backlog of old boosters is used up, but all landing attempts are successful. Most hot GTO missions are flown in expendable mode by older boosters.- they finally get some fairings back, and fly a reused one by the end of the year- Raptor makes progress but does not yet meet design goals for mass and isp - a boilerplate BFS grasshopper will be unveiled as the 'wow' moment of 2018, but will not yet fly-D2 flies unmanned; crewed flight pushed back to 2019SLS/Orion will continue, inexplicably, as the govt is too busy dealing with more pressing matters.JWST will slip into 2019
Quote from: Svetoslav on 12/05/2017 10:12 amMore predictions please I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years 1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwide2) No manned launches from US soil3) Boeing beats SpaceX and launches Starliner first4) Falcon Heavy fails and all other SpaceX launches and planned landings are successful5) MLM is delayed further to 20206) No Russian launch failures7) A surprise Israeli orbital launch8 ) 3 moons found orbiting 2014 MU69 9) 1 Indian launch failure10) 10 successful Atlas launches11) Blue Origin offer to launch Europa Clipper free albeit later12) BepiColombo launch is delayed13) SETI finds nothing (I needed to be certain I'd get at least one right)
Although humor is not necessarily a bad thing, the idea of this thread is that predictions should be ones you sincerely believe have at least a chance of happening, and that have some rational basis.Purely silly predictions, or counterfactual ones, or ones that only a diehard conspiracy theorist would find plausible, are not really welcome in this thread. A prediction that involved, among other things, space microbes that cause global warming, was removed.If you have difficulty with that, use the Report to Mod and make the case that this action should be overturned.
I like all these predictions, but a question for the mods...Is there a cutoff date for this? [1] Or will this thread become like the hiring of the next NASA Administrator [2]...?[1] I have an idea, let’s create a prediction thread to predict when the prediction thread will be closed . [3][2] I.E., lasting well into 2018[3] Of course, then we’ll have to have a prediction thread that will predict when the prediction thread of when the prediction thread of when the prediction thread will close. [1][4][4] You’re welcome Lar, though of course the irony is that this footnote will never get hit, so you’ll (justly)[5] never get your thank you.[5] Justly because of all the infinite recursive loops you’ve created over time with no concern for the consequences...
One of my predictions already bit the dust. No LEGO shuttle, the Ideas Shuttle stack did not get approved.
Well, looks like those of you who said Google Lunar XPrize will be won were wrong, as were those of you who thought it would be delayed. The GLX is over.However, if you made a prediction as to how many will fly, like I did, there is hope yet!
Quote from: Svetoslav on 12/05/2017 10:12 amMore predictions please I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years 1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwide
Quote from: vapour_nudge on 12/17/2017 07:36 amQuote from: Svetoslav on 12/05/2017 10:12 amMore predictions please I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years 1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwideSo does the Ariane launch count as a success?? That old dilemma. Does the Zuma launch count as a success? We're either at 10, 11 or 12 successes - which is it?
10. Zuma is a failure (as far as we can tell). We can go in circles about whose failure it was, but it was a failure. The Ariane launch is a partial failure - separation was no where near the intended orbit.
Japanese who conducted a successful orbital flight
1. Number of orbital launches will exceed 100 for the first time since 1990.
2. SpaceX. - Will miss their 30 launches target, but will exceed 25. - FH will launch at least twice, with at least one success.
- Construction at Boca Chica will begin in ernest. - First Starlink test satellites will launch
3. Blue Origin. - More progress on BE-4. - More New Shepard flights.
- Glimpses of new hardware when their factory at the Cape is open. - Will demonstrate something unexpected and dramatic (like they did with NS)
4. Space science. - TESS will launch and return 1st science data, with multiple exoplanets (easy win ).
- More interstellar objects like `Oumuamua will be found (algorithms will be tweaked as we now know they exist).
- Another planet will be confirmed around Proxima Centauri (maybe; dependent on HARPS time allocation).
- Firm launch date for JWST before end Q2 2019.
- In the next observing run of LIGO (late 2018) there will be a 10+ minute alert before a NS/NS merger allowing much better observation of the kilonova.
As we're 75% through the year, I thought I'd see how I'm doing so far:<snip>Quote- Construction at Boca Chica will begin in ernest. - First Starlink test satellites will launchI think both of these will class as a "fail"<snip>
Quote4. Space science. - TESS will launch and return 1st science data, with multiple exoplanets (easy win ). This is slightly tricky: has launched fine; the 1st science data will be on the ground and will include lots of exoplanets, but the public data release isn't until Jan 2019.--- Tony
50 exoplanet candidates:QuoteIn just six weeks of science observations, NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has already found 50 possible new worlds for scientists to examine.http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2018/09/14/nasa-tess-exoplanet-spacecraft-finds-new-worlds/#.W51MuUxFy74
In just six weeks of science observations, NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has already found 50 possible new worlds for scientists to examine.
TESS finds planets by watching the dip in light as a planet passes in front of its parent star. It began science observations on July 25 and the first set of information was available to astronomers on September 5, but the first step in examining TESS’ data is to eliminate false positives. Sometimes a possible “planet” will actually be a binary star blocking its companion’s light, or it could be sunspots on the star’s surface, no second body needed.While most of these planetary candidates will be discarded upon future analysis, principal investigator George Ricker at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology told Astronomy there are likely six new bona-fide planets lurking in this data alone. Ricker says that usually five to 20 percent of planetary candidates turn out to be true planets, once the transit method is followed up by the radial velocity method on the ground (which observes the influence of an orbiting object). And even amateurs can help with the search, he said.“We make alerts available to astronomers worldwide, and we continue to do that, because there are a lot of amateurs with superb instruments they can use for the initial parts of the screening,” Ricker said, adding the process will likely take months or years due to the number of planetary candidates – suspected rocky planets and larger ones – to double-check.
Quote from: jebbo on 09/14/2018 09:16 am- First Starlink test satellites will launchThere are the 2 Starlink forerunners in orbit. Tinitin-A and Tintin-B that gone up with the Paz Satcom bird in February.
- First Starlink test satellites will launch
Quote from: jebbo on 09/14/2018 09:16 amQuote- TESS will launch and return 1st science data, with multiple exoplanets (easy win ). This is slightly tricky: has launched fine; the 1st science data will be on the ground and will include lots of exoplanets, but the public data release isn't until Jan 2019.Does this count?
Quote- TESS will launch and return 1st science data, with multiple exoplanets (easy win ). This is slightly tricky: has launched fine; the 1st science data will be on the ground and will include lots of exoplanets, but the public data release isn't until Jan 2019.
- TESS will launch and return 1st science data, with multiple exoplanets (easy win ).
With most of the year over, <snip>
Quote from: A_M_Swallow on 12/22/2017 02:54 pm2018 is the year NASA returns.To the public NASA went away with the crash of Columbia in 2003. A few more missions occurred and then the Space Shuttles stopped. As the readers of this website know since then NASA has been returning to manned flight by getting companies to develop new space vehicles.The business press has discovered that California is going into recession. When companies fire people and close down the ordinary press will report it. Bad news in an election year is disliked by politicians, so they will look for good news. In 2018 NASA may have lots of good news.In previous years COTS and Commercial Resupply Services have transported cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).In January/February the Falcon Heavy is due to have a test flight. This will be the biggest American rocket currently flying. (Saturn V has retired and SLS is still in development.)In the spring/summer Lunar CATALYST partner Moon Express hopes to land 30kg of payload on the Moon.Commercial Crew Program company SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2.0 to the ISS in spring 2018. A Boeing CST-100 is due at the ISS in summer 2018. Later flights will carry people.In 2018 NASA's back. It will return to the International Space Station and is preparing to return to the Moon.Oh the good ol' days, seriously people they're not gonna come back, not how you want them tohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moSFlvxnbgk&feature=youtu.be&t=59s
Quote from: AbuSimbel on 12/22/2017 05:02 pmQuote from: A_M_Swallow on 12/22/2017 02:54 pm2018 is the year NASA returns.To the public NASA went away with the crash of Columbia in 2003. A few more missions occurred and then the Space Shuttles stopped. As the readers of this website know since then NASA has been returning to manned flight by getting companies to develop new space vehicles.The business press has discovered that California is going into recession. When companies fire people and close down the ordinary press will report it. Bad news in an election year is disliked by politicians, so they will look for good news. In 2018 NASA may have lots of good news.In previous years COTS and Commercial Resupply Services have transported cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).In January/February the Falcon Heavy is due to have a test flight. This will be the biggest American rocket currently flying. (Saturn V has retired and SLS is still in development.)In the spring/summer Lunar CATALYST partner Moon Express hopes to land 30kg of payload on the Moon.Commercial Crew Program company SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2.0 to the ISS in spring 2018. A Boeing CST-100 is due at the ISS in summer 2018. Later flights will carry people.In 2018 NASA's back. It will return to the International Space Station and is preparing to return to the Moon.Oh the good ol' days, seriously people they're not gonna come back, not how you want them tohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moSFlvxnbgk&feature=youtu.be&t=59sIt is now September 2018 three quarters of the way through the calendar year.I did not allow sufficient time for the inevitable delays. SpaceX may get an unmanned Dragon 2 to the ISS this year but the manned trip has been delayed until next spring (2019). Lunar CATALYST has not succeeded yet but the teams are still trying for 2019.The good old days will not come back but I noticed at the end of the video AbuSimbel linked Princess Elsa created an ice palace.I am optimistic so the song 'An Elephant Fly' from the film Dumbo applies.
As I'm sometimes embargoed on exoplanet discoveries, I'm not going to count this as a win until/unless there's an actual announcement.
Quote from: jebbo on 09/17/2018 07:10 amAs I'm sometimes embargoed on exoplanet discoveries, I'm not going to count this as a win until/unless there's an actual announcement.Well, here is the 1st announcement: https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.05967 ... so I think I can now count this as a win :-)--- Tony
So long as it was successfully launched+maneuvered to it's operational orbit and the vehicle checked out okay, I think that was a very high likelihood prediction. But, of course, those two/three initial conditions weren't gimmes.
6 - Proposal for putting Orion on Vulcan or New Glenn is considered - Senator from Alabama throws fit
SpaceX will reach orbit 27 times with Falcon 9, and 2 times with Falcon Heavy.
SpaceX will recover 100% of the first stage boosters that they try to.
There will be a carbon nanotube/graphene production breakthrough. The effects will not be felt right away.
The NASA TESS spacecraft will launch without incident.
The NASA Insight lander will launch after a minor delay.
An Earth-size planet will be found in the habitable zone of Epsilon Eridani, just 10.5 light years away. The discovery will not be 100% certain, though, as E. Eridani is quite an active star.
SpaceX's circumlunar tourist flight will be delayed till 2019.
SLS and Orion will be canceled, to be replaced by an orbital spaceplane.
Japan's SELENE-2 will launch without incident.
Well, others are jumping the gun so I may as well see how I did:Quote from: scienceguy on 11/27/2017 05:09 pmThe NASA TESS spacecraft will launch without incident.Almost: there was a minor incident. 0.5
Quote from: scienceguy on 11/03/2018 03:56 pmWell, others are jumping the gun so I may as well see how I did:Quote from: scienceguy on 11/27/2017 05:09 pmThe NASA TESS spacecraft will launch without incident.Almost: there was a minor incident. 0.5Really? I don't remember reading anything about a minor incident with the TESS launch. Please point me to the source of that.
Quote from: scienceguy on 11/27/2017 05:09 pmThere will be a carbon nanotube/graphene production breakthrough. The effects will not be felt right away.Nope. incorrect.
I’ll keep my contribution short, and specific. I hope to be able to publish a little more detail, in early 2018, but I wanted to initiate it, prior to the end of 2017, in the spirit of the ‘predictions’ threads! I anticipate, that during 2018, this woman will be revealed as the next ‘Space Tourist’ or perhaps more correctly, as a Commercial Astronaut.Her name is Johanna Maislinger. She is 32, and lives in Munich, but she is actually Austrian. She is an airline pilot (Boeing 777-200 Aerologic), a mechanical engineer, and is almost qualified, as a medical doctor. For hobbies, she is an aerobatic pilot, sky-diver, mountaineer, cross-country, and downhill skier. A generally very smart and adventurous lady!After being eliminated from the German ‘Die Astronautin’ project, she has spent much of 2017 involved with a major German conglomerate, as a possible ‘sponsor’ for her to make a commercial spaceflight to the ISS, in 2019 or 2020. At present, the availability of ‘commercial’ Soyuz seats to the ISS, hinges upon SpaceX and Boeing reducing NASA’s reliance on Soyuz. Let’s see what happens with this one! 😉
3. Virgin Galactic: There will be powered flights in 2018, but they will be less frequent than anticipated (once per three weeks). Manned flight to space (above 80kms, the boundary used in the USA for space) will occur in November 2018 at the earliest, more likely in 2019.
Okay here goes....- the balloon goes up in one of the big geopolitical hotspots and missiles go flying. Military satellites and their handlers “burn the midnight oil” and a few of them are destroyed or damaged. The world is saved from all out destruction in the barest nick of time but hundreds of thousands or even several millions of lives and a few cities are still lost. Space priorities change somewhat and space debris mitigation plus satellite replacements become top priority.- despite the war, SpaceX gets in 22 F9 and 2 Falcon Heavy launches, all successful. The first Heavy flies in January and its payload delivers quite the “wow” factor that has the public talking. 2 SpaceX flights will be last minute satellite launches ordered up by the Pentagon. The Dragon 2 launches on an un-crewed flight successfully late in the year as does the Starliner, but crewed flights postponed till early 2019 due to delays.- Blue Origin flies people above the Karman line on New Shepard in the fall. Virgin Galactic also flies above the Karman line with a limited load to prove its space capabilities.- Stratolaunch makes its first flight and is pressed into service late in the year launching Pegasus rockets to fly a couple of urgently needed satellites, also contracted by the Pentagon to fly outsized cargo. - Electron, ULA, Orbital ATK, Arianespace all fly (most of) their manifests successfully, though a few payloads are delayed to 2019. China comes back from 2017’s problems, so does India. Russia suffers at least one failure. Japanese program shines as a bright spot for that country with successful military launches.- ISS makes it through the year crewed and undamaged though with plenty of anxious moments due to debris concerns and world politics. The crew members serve as an inspirational example of international cooperation that is frequently commented on in the media, their impassioned plea for world peace is broadcast worldwide during the worst of the global crisis.- Insight launches successfully in May and lands safely on Mars too, the landing is cheered on by an American public (and world) in need of something to cheer for, and Osiris-Rex, BepiColombo, Chandrayaan, Chang’e, Hayabusa 2 also make positive headlines and inspire the world, and the Mars rovers and Juno keep on trucking.- One Lunar X-prize flight launches into space, but the prize award conditions aren’t met.- Planet 9 is discovered. TESS launches and starts its discoveries. At least one possible Earth-like planet is discovered nearby (less than 20 light years from us), and an exomoon is finally confirmed.- I finally make it to at least one launch. (TESS, Insight, Dragon, Starliner are possibilities). I also finish at least one space related model. The Lego Space Shuttle in same scale as the Saturn is green lighted and I get one after some difficulty.
Couple of easy ones, but I’m trying to be better than my 2017 predictions.Orbital Vehicles:- Falcon Heavy will fly, but not in January.
- No Falcon 9 will be reused more than 3 times.
- BFR will drop the cradle landing, and the ship design will change again.
- Agile Aero won’t make any major progress.
- At least one group will have a LOX and carbon/epoxy ignition event.
- Rocket Lab will fly at least 3 times.
- Blue Origin will get to full power and duration on BE-4, and unveil some New Glenn hardware.
- ULA will downselect to BE-4 / RL10 for Vulcan and ACES.
- No private companies will successfully land on the Moon.
Suborbital Vehicles:- While some of the XCOR IP may trickle into the world, it won’t have a Firefly / EXOS type of restart.
- Masten will continue to fly, but won’t do any major envelope expansion.
- Masten will get to thermal steady state on their 25k methane engine, but won’t integrate pumps.
- SS2 will get to 80 km “space”, but not 100 km space.
- SS2 will do at least one powered flight from Spaceport America.
- Vector will get above 100 km, but not to orbit.
- Blue Origin will do 7 New Shepard flights, but only one with people.
Vulcan CDR will be "making progress", but will not complete in 2018.
Engine downselect will not occur officially. The reality is that Vulcan is not going to happen.
Instead, New Glenn launch site will be completed and hardware will materialize.
New shapard will make one unmanned flight.
Both commercial crew companies (Boeing and SpaceX) will complete uncrewed tests, neither will fly with crew.
SpaceX will have a launch failure of a brand new core.
Other countries beside US will not make appreciable progress the field of space.
edit: except, debatably, New Zealand. Rocket lab will launch three times.
Quote from: saliva_sweet on 12/16/2017 07:59 pmSpaceX will have a launch failure of a brand new core.Wrong.
I only did so-so last year (about half of my predictions were mostly or all the way right, but a third were completely or mostly wrong), so let me take another shot at it this year:1- SpaceX: I predict they'll have a successful Falcon Heavy first flight, and will have at least 20 flights, including at least an uncrewed Dragon 2 flight to ISS. I predict they won't have any outright flight failures again this year, showing that they've arrived when it comes to maintaining a high flight rate with good reliability. They'll continue to recover most first stages, and will continue to refly reused first stages. I'll even go so far as to say they'll succeed in recovering intact at least one PLF half. Their flight around the Moon will get delayed by at least a year. I'll predict that they won't have a crewed Dragon V2 flight before the end of the year but they'll be close.
2- Blue Origin: I predict they'll finally get BE-4 to a full-throttle test this year, though development will continue to take longer than expected. I expect them to also carry out at least a half dozen more New Shepard flights, but won't get to a crewed flight during 2018, but will be almost there.
3- ULA: I predict they'll have a successful year with no failures or major anomalies. They'll finally downselect to BE-4 for Vulcan propulsion, though potentially not till late in the year. Steady progress, but relative to SpaceX they'll be seen as falling further and further behind.
4- Boeing: Their XS-1 project will not go off the rails this year, though I'm skeptical it'll make it to flight. CST-100 will have an uncrewed flight before the end of the year, but will not have a crewed flight in 2018.
5- VG/VO: VG will finally get to powered flight testing of SS2, but once again won't get into commercial operations in 2018. They'll get to captive carry testing early in the year, with a first launch attempt late in the year. With the historical data on launcher first flights, I'll guess they don't make it all the way to orbit, but can gather enough data that their second flight will (but likely in 2019).
6- RocketLabs: RL will successfully get Electron into orbit by mid-year, on one of its next three launches. After that, they'll begin regular launches, though at a low rate--say 3 successful orbital launches this year.
7- Other Smallsat Launchers: Vector will not make an orbital launch attempt (with a vehicle with enough performance to actually have a shot of reaching orbit) this year. However either they or someone else will make at least one launch that crosses the Karman line this year (if I had to bet, I'd say Ventions beats them to this feat). At least one US venture will raise at least $10M to go after a partially reusable smallsat launch vehicle (with at least first-stage full-stage recovery).
8- Masten: Still ticking, but with no major new launch vehicle initiatives
9- Bridenstine will get re-nominated for NASA Admin, and will get confirmed in the Senate by a squeaker (with Mike Pence having to cast a tie-breaking vote). They may wait until a Dem or two is out sick to hold the vote.
10- Moon: In the NASA budget request, there will not be a dramatic (>$1B) increase to NASA's budget to pay for the new Moon focus. There'll be some reshifting of priorities, and slightly more emphasis on public-private partnerships, but nothing so drastic as the previous two direction changes (CxP and FY2011). Nobody will win the GLXP before it expires.
11- Mars: Mars Insight launch and landing will go off without a hitch.
10- Megaconstellations: At least two of the three of OneWeb, SpaceX, and Telesat will launch pathfinder satellites in 2018. OneWeb will finish closing the financing necessary to launch their first constellation. At least one other megaconstellation will get FCC approval before the end of the year.
11- Exoplanets: like last year I'll predict that at least one new earth-like exoplanet will be found within the habitable zone of a star within 25LY of earth. Also, the TESS spacecraft will successfully launch.
12- Mergers: At least one other major aerospace M&A event will occur this year. I wish it would be someone buying ULA off its parents, but I'm not holding my breath.
13- SLS/Orion: Neither will be canceled again, but there will be at least another 6 months of slippage.
Here are my predictions for 2018:1- FH will fly at least twice successfully (the second one with the block 5 version).2- The uncrewed demo flights for SpaceX and Boeing will fly towards the end of 2018 (but not the crewed flight).3- Blue Origin will fly people towards the end of 2017 (but not paying passengers)4- SpaceShip2 will make powered test flights but will not reach space.5- Rocketlab will have a successful flight. 6- F9 will fly 20 times. 7- Bridenstine will eventually get confirmed.
I predict that NASA will unveil a plan to build a rocket sled into the Rockies which will enable SSTO shuttle flights !
Can somebody help me with my prediction? The cubesat one. How many have been released this year?
Quote from: spaceman100 on 12/21/2018 01:30 pmI predict that NASA will unveil a plan to build a rocket sled into the Rockies which will enable SSTO shuttle flights !You have like, 10 days for that to come true. Did you maybe mean the 2019 thread?
Nearly missed the deadline due to illness, and had a terrible run for last year's prediction, so just going to keep this brief.USASpaceX have between 25 and 30 launches-Nope, 21. Still, looks like a good guess for next yearLauncherOne flies to orbit towards the end of the year-nopeOrbATK NGL survives the year-yesSLS and Orion survive essentially unscathed, other than delays-yesEXOS breach the Karman line-nopeFH maiden launch is broadly successful-yepIndiaChandrayaan 2 is successful-delayedSCE-200 testing is promising, but won't reach full design power in 2018-afaik no testing this yearChinaCASIC make vague hints about a 100+ ton SHLV desig-nopeCASC shows detailed plans for reusability-depends how you define 'detailed', but i'll take this as a win given CZ-6X/CZ-8RussiaSHLV basic design settles, and a name is chosen- not quite, again looks set for early next yearOther nationsNK has at least one orbital sucess-nopeAs does Iran-nopeElectron reaches orbit but doesn't establish a regular launch cadence before the end of the yearGeneralLaunch totals are USA>China>Russia-wrongAnother small rocket company comes 'out of nowhere' for most people with a high-altitude test launch, 10+km-a couple times in china3 or less complete failures from established players (i.e. excluding NK and Iran)-yes
Alright. Here's what I believe will come true for 2018:1. SpaceX has 31 scheduled launches for 2018. I say they complete 30 successful launches.2. SpaceX's FH maiden launch and Midnight Cherry’s Mars insertion are both successful.3. At AIC 2018, Musk unveils the details of the ISRU machinery as well as the first habitats for the first missions to Mars. He also details the life support systems for BFR.4. SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar is pushed back to 2019.5. EMDrive technology will stagnate with no progress made for the whole year.6. Virgin Galactic continues it’s extremely slow work on SS2. No manned Suborbital flights in 20187. Blue Origin achieves it’s first manned Suborbital flight just to claim a “Perceived” victory on SpaceX.8. Given SpaceX’s E2E BFR plans, Blue origin announces its own plans for E2E trips.9. TESS Launches in June rather then March10. At AIC 2018, eight months into it’s voyage to Mars, Musk unveils that he installed some 4K, 60fps, 15 stops of DR cameras on the Midnight Cherry Roadster. Glorious HDR video of Mars is played on the large screens. 11. A concrete resolution to the Tabby's Star mystery remains elusive with ETI coming back into the picture.12. SpaceX does not test fly a crewed dragon 2 in 201813. Running prediction 2017-present: SLS starts to suffer a slow dragged out death once BFR starts to fly and the price per flight to orbit and re-usability becomes grossly evident of NASA's dressed-up 1960's tech.
Quote from: yg1968 on 01/02/2018 07:51 pmHere are my predictions for 2018:1- FH will fly at least twice successfully (the second one with the block 5 version).2- The uncrewed demo flights for SpaceX and Boeing will fly towards the end of 2018 (but not the crewed flight).3- Blue Origin will fly people towards the end of 2017 (but not paying passengers)4- SpaceShip2 will make powered test flights but will not reach space.5- Rocketlab will have a successful flight. 6- F9 will fly 20 times. 7- Bridenstine will eventually get confirmed.I got 3.5 out of 7 (the last 3 predictions and part of my second prediction were correct). But I should get a bonus point for getting the number of F9 flights exactly right. So 4.5 out of 7.
Quote from: yg1968 on 12/21/2018 03:23 amQuote from: yg1968 on 01/02/2018 07:51 pm(snip)6- F9 will fly 20 times. (snip)I got 3.5 out of 7 (the last 3 predictions and part of my second prediction were correct). But I should get a bonus point for getting the number of F9 flights exactly right. So 4.5 out of 7.Wait, are you saying Zuma was a failure?
Quote from: yg1968 on 01/02/2018 07:51 pm(snip)6- F9 will fly 20 times. (snip)I got 3.5 out of 7 (the last 3 predictions and part of my second prediction were correct). But I should get a bonus point for getting the number of F9 flights exactly right. So 4.5 out of 7.
(snip)6- F9 will fly 20 times. (snip)
2018 is the year NASA returns.
To the public NASA went away with the crash of Columbia in 2003. A few more missions occurred and then the Space Shuttles stopped. As the readers of this website know since then NASA has been returning to manned flight by getting companies to develop new space vehicles.The business press has discovered that California is going into recession. When companies fire people and close down the ordinary press will report it. Bad news in an election year is disliked by politicians, so they will look for good news. In 2018 NASA may have lots of good news.
In previous years COTS and Commercial Resupply Services have transported cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).In January/February the Falcon Heavy is due to have a test flight. This will be the biggest American rocket currently flying. (Saturn V has retired and SLS is still in development.)
In the spring/summer Lunar CATALYST partner Moon Express hopes to land 30kg of payload on the Moon.
Commercial Crew Program company SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2.0 to the ISS in spring 2018. A Boeing CST-100 is due at the ISS in summer 2018. Later flights will carry people.In 2018 NASA's back. It will return to the International Space Station and is preparing to return to the Moon.
Quote from: yg1968 on 12/21/2018 03:23 amQuote from: yg1968 on 01/02/2018 07:51 pmHere are my predictions for 2018:1- FH will fly at least twice successfully (the second one with the block 5 version).2- The uncrewed demo flights for SpaceX and Boeing will fly towards the end of 2018 (but not the crewed flight).3- Blue Origin will fly people towards the end of 2017 (but not paying passengers)4- SpaceShip2 will make powered test flights but will not reach space.5- Rocketlab will have a successful flight. 6- F9 will fly 20 times. 7- Bridenstine will eventually get confirmed.I got 3.5 out of 7 (the last 3 predictions and part of my second prediction were correct). But I should get a bonus point for getting the number of F9 flights exactly right. So 4.5 out of 7.Wait, are you saying Zuma was a failure?
2. SpaceX. - Will miss their 30 launches target, but will exceed 25.
- FH will launch at least twice, with at least one success.
- Construction at Boca Chica will begin in ernest.
3. Blue Origin. - More progress on BE-4.
- More New Shepard flights.
- Glimpses of new hardware when their factory at the Cape is open.
- Will demonstrate something unexpected and dramatic (like they did with NS)
I'll get one of these in:SpaceX:- 24 Falcon 9 flights using 10 boosters. All successful.
- 1 landing failure on an especially hot GTO flight. 2 boosters are ditched at sea without attempting recovery.
- Falcon Heavy first flight is mostly successful, but with enough anomalies that Falcon 9 is grounded for a month to clear any commonalities. Second FH flight with all Block 5 cores happens towards end of year.
- Crewed Dragon 2 flight happens at the very end of the year.
- Fairing recovery happens, but the recovered fairings are proving difficult to recertify for flight
- Production size Raptor gets to full chamber pressure.
- The first 25 production Starlink sats have been made, but are awaiting launch.
- Construction of a BFS structural test article has begun, with a test facility at Boca Chica being built.
Blue Origin:- Crewed New Shepherd flights begin. At least 4 paid flight participants ride it.
- BE-4 reaches full chamber pressure, but has substantial anomalies in the firing.
- The first New Glenn test articles are manufactured.
- DOJ begins an anti trust compliant against Amazon. This causes a large decline in Amazon's stock value, and thus Bezos dramatically slows down his spending on Blue.
ULA: - Has 1 Seriously Off Nominal mission that requires extraordinary measures to salvage.
- Centaur V is announced to be powered by BE-3U.
- Vulcan CDR happens assuming a 5.4m methalox core.
- Down select on Vulcan main propulsion happens, and AR-1 is removed from consideration. However at the Air Force's prodding after the anomalous BE-4 firing, and with grimaces from both SpaceX and ULA, Raptor is added for consideration. ULA openly uses this to get Blue to be a little less Gradatim with BE-4 but expresses deep skepticism of a Raptor based design due to the need for multiple engines with each needing a second turbopump and the hard requirement for sub-cooled propellent. They also make a lot of snide comments about Raptor's 'design stability'.
- Following Sen. McCain's death, and with some pressure from the White House, the RD-180 ban is lifted all together during the lame duck after the November elections. ULA presses on with Vulcan none the less.
Boeing:- Uncrewed Starliner is delayed due to investigation of ULA's off nominal flight.
- Begins talks to buy AJR for assets related to SLS.
Grumman-OATK:- NGLV is cancelled.
- Makes noises of needing a lot of committed up front money soon for SLS Black Knight boosters.
- Cygnus continues to be the only payload for Antares. There is a lot of talk of canceling Antares for CRS-2 and just launching on ULA.
ILS/Proton:- Rumors of a suspension of operations due to a lack of orders are circulating.
Arianespace:- Keeps doing the same thing.
- It becomes openly expected that Ariane 6 will be an interim vehicle.
NASA:- SLS/Orion is all but officially delayed to 2021 but continues to plod on due to support in Congress.
- Europa Clipper is formally delayed to 2025. Congress puts a hard requirement it be launched on SLS and bans consideration of other launch vehicles. The follow on lander is cancelled.
- JWST is slightly damaged during shipment to Kourou and delayed to 2020.
- The initial images of MU69 from New Horizons' approach are highly confusing.
- Opportunity continues to trudge along.
- Curiosity gets itself stuck for a couple of months but is able to be freed.
- Insight launches and lands successfully.- TESS launches successfully.- Dawn reaches a successful EOM.
- One of the Voyagers detects via odd/unexpected trajectory shift that it has flown by a small body at fairly close range. A search finds the small body.
Misc. Astronomy:- A Planet 9 candidate is leaked prior to it being confirmed. It is ultimately found not to be a planet. The search for Planet 9 continues.
- Another extra-solar body passing through the solar system is detected.
- A super earth sized exoplanet in a star's habitable zone is observed to have an atmosphere containing water.
- A mostly predictable theory for the behavior of Tabby's star is published and confirmed.
We'll see how I do....