Quote from: wannamoonbase on 09/06/2022 02:37 pmIt's been 6 years to get to a SS/SH on the OLM. I would love to be wrong, but I think SS will be in the single digits in 2023 and maybe even 2024.F9/FH are going to be carrying the mail in 2023.That's my view as well. The simple fact is it's 116 days to 2023 and SS has not reached orbit yet. Obviously it could launch tomorrow, and the era of Starship will have finally dawned, but it could just as easily stay on the ground till next year. I'm not really clear what the delay is at this point. The economics from SX's PoV are get SS to orbit and start winding down the whole expendable infrastructure.
It's been 6 years to get to a SS/SH on the OLM. I would love to be wrong, but I think SS will be in the single digits in 2023 and maybe even 2024.F9/FH are going to be carrying the mail in 2023.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 09/06/2022 07:08 amQuote from: AmigaClone on 09/05/2022 02:01 pmI suspect that SpaceX might do a more intensive inspection on at least B1058 and B1060 in view of potentially requalifing those boosters and the ones that follow to 20 flights. I'm not certain if B1051 would also undergo that inspection or not.Well Musk is saying 100 launches next year so that number of flights is not nealy as much leeway as it appeared. Looking to get the fleet up to 20 each would be a sensible precaution. We'll see.I suspect it will take a combination of certifying at least some of the boosters to 20 flights and converting some FH side boosters to F9 to reach that goal of 100 Falcon 9 launches. Note that booster B1052 flew twice as a FH side booster and this year has flown 5 times as a Falcon 9, so it's something that's been done with a Block 5
Quote from: AmigaClone on 09/05/2022 02:01 pmI suspect that SpaceX might do a more intensive inspection on at least B1058 and B1060 in view of potentially requalifing those boosters and the ones that follow to 20 flights. I'm not certain if B1051 would also undergo that inspection or not.Well Musk is saying 100 launches next year so that number of flights is not nealy as much leeway as it appeared. Looking to get the fleet up to 20 each would be a sensible precaution. We'll see.
I suspect that SpaceX might do a more intensive inspection on at least B1058 and B1060 in view of potentially requalifing those boosters and the ones that follow to 20 flights. I'm not certain if B1051 would also undergo that inspection or not.
I suspect it will take a combination of certifying at least some of the boosters to 20 flights and converting some FH side boosters to F9 to reach that goal of 100 Falcon 9 launches. Note that booster B1052 flew twice as a FH side booster and this year has flown 5 times as a Falcon 9, so it's something that's been done with a Block 5
As of right now, it’s just the nitty gritty of getting 33 powerful engines to work at the same time. Have to static fire until they get there.That’s the necessary (but not sufficient) step needed right now. If they can do that reliably, test Starship as well, then they’ll be well-positioned for an FAA launch license. Although there are a bunch of other things needed as well.Could come by the end of the year if all goes well.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/06/2022 07:32 pmAs of right now, it’s just the nitty gritty of getting 33 powerful engines to work at the same time. Have to static fire until they get there.That’s the necessary (but not sufficient) step needed right now. If they can do that reliably, test Starship as well, then they’ll be well-positioned for an FAA launch license. Although there are a bunch of other things needed as well.Could come by the end of the year if all goes well.Except FH manages to start up 27 Merlins in a few seconds, with each group of 9 under control of a different processor. Multiple times so far. Compared to the troubles of working out the SSME start sequence (LH2 is the only compressible liquid at these pressures, everything else should behave more like water) the issues should be relatively straightforward. I'd have bet more on TPS issues, or the Cp/Cg shift through re-entry.
So what's with the overestimating SpaceX amazing peoples on Twitter that question Starship/Super Heavy, believing that it's already ready to go?
Quote from: ZachS09 on 09/07/2022 01:15 pmSo what's with the overestimating SpaceX guys on Twitter that question Starship/Super Heavy, believing that it's already ready to go?They may be able to get ready for launch within a month or two.
So what's with the overestimating SpaceX guys on Twitter that question Starship/Super Heavy, believing that it's already ready to go?
Quote from: john smith 19 on 09/07/2022 06:58 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 09/06/2022 07:32 pmAs of right now, it’s just the nitty gritty of getting 33 powerful engines to work at the same time. Have to static fire until they get there.That’s the necessary (but not sufficient) step needed right now. If they can do that reliably, test Starship as well, then they’ll be well-positioned for an FAA launch license. Although there are a bunch of other things needed as well.Could come by the end of the year if all goes well.Except FH manages to start up 27 Merlins in a few seconds, with each group of 9 under control of a different processor. Multiple times so far. Compared to the troubles of working out the SSME start sequence (LH2 is the only compressible liquid at these pressures, everything else should behave more like water) the issues should be relatively straightforward. I'd have bet more on TPS issues, or the Cp/Cg shift through re-entry. There's a reason everybody doesn't use ssfc engines. They're much harder to start up exactly the way you want than Merlin type engines. FH isn't really proof that the Raptor booster is easily doable.
SSFC?
Quote from: Hog on 09/07/2022 04:24 pmSSFC? FFSC
Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/07/2022 01:17 pmQuote from: ZachS09 on 09/07/2022 01:15 pmSo what's with the overestimating SpaceX guys on Twitter that question Starship/Super Heavy, believing that it's already ready to go?They may be able to get ready for launch within a month or two.We'll see.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 09/05/2022 05:49 amCurrent booster reuse status, following Starlink launch few hours ago:Interesting.So B1051,1058 and 1060 are the flight leaders. It'll be interesting to see what happens when they reach 15 flights.
Current booster reuse status, following Starlink launch few hours ago:
Quote from: ZachS09 on 09/07/2022 01:22 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 09/07/2022 01:17 pmQuote from: ZachS09 on 09/07/2022 01:15 pmSo what's with the overestimating SpaceX guys on Twitter that question Starship/Super Heavy, believing that it's already ready to go?They may be able to get ready for launch within a month or two.We'll see.I wouldn’t bet a launch attempt (ie clamps release) of Starship before the end of the year, but it’s a significant possibility. I also wouldn’t bet on an SLS launch attempt before November.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/07/2022 09:13 pmQuote from: ZachS09 on 09/07/2022 01:22 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 09/07/2022 01:17 pmQuote from: ZachS09 on 09/07/2022 01:15 pmSo what's with the overestimating SpaceX guys on Twitter that question Starship/Super Heavy, believing that it's already ready to go?They may be able to get ready for launch within a month or two.We'll see.I wouldn’t bet a launch attempt (ie clamps release) of Starship before the end of the year, but it’s a significant possibility. I also wouldn’t bet on an SLS launch attempt before November.No one has flown anything like or as large as Starship before. So who knows how many things SpaceX will learn before they to clamp release.I think we all know they will get there, and so will SLS.I've been 6 years working to get to this point from the first presentation for the ITS that became SLS, a few more months on booster on stand testing is pretty exciting itself.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 09/05/2022 07:44 amQuote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 09/05/2022 05:49 amCurrent booster reuse status, following Starlink launch few hours ago:Interesting.So B1051,1058 and 1060 are the flight leaders. It'll be interesting to see what happens when they reach 15 flights.Notice that boosters going over 10 flights are doing only StarLinks. My guess is it'll stay this way up to 15 flights. Then do a deep dive on one or two and decide if 20 would work. If it's a go, from 16 to 20 will be starlinks only but they might decide paying customers can go up to 15. Repeat every increase of five. Just guessing.
27 engine Falcon Heavy is pretty comparable, actually, just without the advantage of an intermediate Falcon 9.