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General Discussion => Polls Section => Topic started by: Tywin on 09/01/2022 01:57 am

Title: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: Tywin on 09/01/2022 01:57 am
What do you think?

Starting 2024-2030...
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R?
Post by: AmigaClone on 09/01/2022 02:02 am
How about adding Starship and a time frame (start date and end date) for counting the number of reuses?
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R?
Post by: Stan-1967 on 09/01/2022 02:02 am
What do you think?
Clarify the question & primary metric please.  Something is off in the wording.  Total re-uses per booster?  Total reflown boosters for each vehicle type?  By when? 
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R?
Post by: Tywin on 09/01/2022 02:08 am
How about adding Starship and a time frame (start date and end date) for counting the number of reuses?

Do it...
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R?
Post by: Tywin on 09/01/2022 02:10 am
What do you think?
Clarify the question & primary metric please.  Something is off in the wording.  Total re-uses per booster?  Total reflown boosters for each vehicle type?  By when?

re-uses per booster...the final record.

From 2024 to 2030...
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: sdsds on 09/01/2022 02:14 am
Even by the midpoint in the given span, 2027, Starship Superheavy boosters will be flying daily. Nothing else will even come close.
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: Robotbeat on 09/19/2022 07:01 pm
Even by the midpoint in the given span, 2027, Starship Superheavy boosters will be flying daily. Nothing else will even come close.
I tend to agree. Starship will also have the most expensive first stage (maybe? This is hard to say, but I do expect SH booster is more expensive than a F9 first stage), so there’s more incentive to reuse it a lot even at similar annual flight rates.

F9 is flying at a rate of about 60/year at the moment and will reach up to around 100 next year. If Starship gets to that level, we’re talking 10 times more global launch capacity than there is right now. And right now, there’s about twice the annual launch capacity as there was 8 years ago.
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: DeimosDream on 09/20/2022 01:35 pm
Even by the midpoint in the given span, 2027, Starship Superheavy boosters will be flying daily. Nothing else will even come close.

I'm less optimistic, but even flying weekly Starship Superheavy still wins.

Falcon-9's launch rate is going to crater as soon as Starlink switches to Starship in 2023/2024. It will probably still be flying 2027 for crew dragon and maybe beyond-earth falcon heavy, but should continue to wind down to retirement by 2030.

Honorable mention to Neutron as my predicted runner-up.

Blue Origin isn't moving very fast with New Shepard, so I'm expecting New Glenn will be slow to ramp up as well.

Relativity is a wild card, but as the least experienced with the most to learn I'll predict Terran-R finishes behind Neutron for 1st-stage reuse in the stated interval.
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: Robotbeat on 09/21/2022 08:17 pm
Tough to compare Relativity to RocketLab. Relativity has more experience with gas generator engines. Aeon-R is an upscale of the Aeon-1 design, same cycle and propellants and overall manufacturing process, and will fly earlier on Terran 1 block 2 or whatever. So I still think Rocketlab is ahead due to success of Electron development and operational launch experience, but Terran 1 to Terran-R is a much more straightforward evolution than Electron to Neutron.

I think my perspective could change rapidly over the next month or two if Terran-1 orbits successfully and they test fire Aeon-R. Relativity has a deliberately more aggressive schedule and seem to be taking steps to make that happen. But I’m still reluctant to say they’re ahead since they’re using a manufacturing process that they haven’t yet demonstrated fully mastery of as well as RocketLab has mastered composites through operational use.
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: TrevorMonty on 09/22/2022 04:13 am
Tough to compare Relativity to RocketLab. Relativity has more experience with gas generator engines. Aeon-R is an upscale of the Aeon-1 design, same cycle and propellants and overall manufacturing process, and will fly earlier on Terran 1 block 2 or whatever. So I still think Rocketlab is ahead due to success of Electron development and operational launch experience, but Terran 1 to Terran-R is a much more straightforward evolution than Electron to Neutron.

I think my perspective could change rapidly over the next month or two if Terran-1 orbits successfully and they test fire Aeon-R. Relativity has a deliberately more aggressive schedule and seem to be taking steps to make that happen. But I’m still reluctant to say they’re ahead since they’re using a manufacturing process that they haven’t yet demonstrated fully mastery of as well as RocketLab has mastered composites through operational use.
Archimedes engine development is big question mark at this stage for Neutron, everything else seems straightforward.
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: Robotbeat on 09/22/2022 04:54 am
Tough to compare Relativity to RocketLab. Relativity has more experience with gas generator engines. Aeon-R is an upscale of the Aeon-1 design, same cycle and propellants and overall manufacturing process, and will fly earlier on Terran 1 block 2 or whatever. So I still think Rocketlab is ahead due to success of Electron development and operational launch experience, but Terran 1 to Terran-R is a much more straightforward evolution than Electron to Neutron.

I think my perspective could change rapidly over the next month or two if Terran-1 orbits successfully and they test fire Aeon-R. Relativity has a deliberately more aggressive schedule and seem to be taking steps to make that happen. But I’m still reluctant to say they’re ahead since they’re using a manufacturing process that they haven’t yet demonstrated fully mastery of as well as RocketLab has mastered composites through operational use.
Archimedes engine development is big question mark at this stage for Neutron, everything else seems straightforward.
A 7 meter diameter composite structure isn't actually straightforward, though. Even though RocketLab has a lot of experience with composites. That's bigger in diameter than the Dreamliner.
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: TrevorMonty on 09/22/2022 09:31 am
Tough to compare Relativity to RocketLab. Relativity has more experience with gas generator engines. Aeon-R is an upscale of the Aeon-1 design, same cycle and propellants and overall manufacturing process, and will fly earlier on Terran 1 block 2 or whatever. So I still think Rocketlab is ahead due to success of Electron development and operational launch experience, but Terran 1 to Terran-R is a much more straightforward evolution than Electron to Neutron.

I think my perspective could change rapidly over the next month or two if Terran-1 orbits successfully and they test fire Aeon-R. Relativity has a deliberately more aggressive schedule and seem to be taking steps to make that happen. But I’m still reluctant to say they’re ahead since they’re using a manufacturing process that they haven’t yet demonstrated fully mastery of as well as RocketLab has mastered composites through operational use.
Archimedes engine development is big question mark at this stage for Neutron, everything else seems straightforward.
A 7 meter diameter composite structure isn't actually straightforward, though. Even though RocketLab has a lot of experience with composites. That's bigger in diameter than the Dreamliner.
Composite superyachts are larger and NZ is expert at composite boatbuilding 
which is where RL steal their talent from.
Title: Re: Who will reuse more the first stage, Falcon 9, New Glenn, Neutron, Terran-R, SS?
Post by: Robotbeat on 09/24/2022 06:09 pm
Tough to compare Relativity to RocketLab. Relativity has more experience with gas generator engines. Aeon-R is an upscale of the Aeon-1 design, same cycle and propellants and overall manufacturing process, and will fly earlier on Terran 1 block 2 or whatever. So I still think Rocketlab is ahead due to success of Electron development and operational launch experience, but Terran 1 to Terran-R is a much more straightforward evolution than Electron to Neutron.

I think my perspective could change rapidly over the next month or two if Terran-1 orbits successfully and they test fire Aeon-R. Relativity has a deliberately more aggressive schedule and seem to be taking steps to make that happen. But I’m still reluctant to say they’re ahead since they’re using a manufacturing process that they haven’t yet demonstrated fully mastery of as well as RocketLab has mastered composites through operational use.
Archimedes engine development is big question mark at this stage for Neutron, everything else seems straightforward.
A 7 meter diameter composite structure isn't actually straightforward, though. Even though RocketLab has a lot of experience with composites. That's bigger in diameter than the Dreamliner.
Composite superyachts are larger and NZ is expert at composite boatbuilding 
which is where RL steal their talent from.
Superyachts don’t need aerospace level composite qualities. The manufacturing method is different.

Rocketlab has pretty good operational experience with cryogenic composites, but you are significantly underestimating the challenge of such huge composites when you have aerospace composite margins. Also, more complicated structures than Electron.