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General Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: scienceguy on 10/12/2020 04:00 pm

Title: Predictions 2021
Post by: scienceguy on 10/12/2020 04:00 pm
Well, I'm starting this thread early, but it has been a rough year with covid, and I figure myself and others need a pick-me-up.

Link to last year's thread:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.0

Predictions for spaceflight 2021

Water vapour detected in the atmosphere of an Earth-size exoplanet within 40 light years

More evidence of a second planet at Proxima Centauri

Evidence of an Earth-size planet at Alpha Centauri B

SpaceX continues its crew transportation to the ISS nominally

SpaceX Starship makes it to orbit safely

SpaceX will launch twice in the same day at least once

JWST launches without incident and snaps a 1-4 pixel picture of an exoplanet

NASA Curiosity rover keeps working

NASA’s InSight Lander stops communicating briefly; issue is quickly resolved

NASA’s TESS finds more Earth-size planets in the habitable zone

Covid-19 will continue to delay launches worldwide

ISRO will continue work on their reusable shuttle

China will have at least 10 successful launches

Betelgeuse will go supernova this year as seen from Earth
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 10/24/2020 06:05 am
It's still a little early for me.  I still need another 6 or 7 weeks to see how some of my predictions for this year are going to turn out.  But I agree we need to look forward to a hopefully better year next year.  And much of that hope has nothing to do with spaceflight.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Magelan on 10/26/2020 09:20 am
Well, I'm starting this thread early, but it has been a rough year with covid, and I figure myself and others need a pick-me-up.

Link to last year's thread:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.0

Predictions for spaceflight 2021

Water vapour detected in the atmosphere of an Earth-size exoplanet within 40 light years

More evidence of a second planet at Proxima Centauri

Evidence of an Earth-size planet at Alpha Centauri B

SpaceX continues its crew transportation to the ISS nominally

SpaceX Starship makes it to orbit safely

SpaceX will launch twice in the same day at least once

JWST launches without incident and snaps a 1-4 pixel picture of an exoplanet

NASA Curiosity rover keeps working

NASA’s InSight Lander stops communicating briefly; issue is quickly resolved

NASA’s TESS finds more Earth-size planets in the habitable zone

Covid-19 will continue to delay launches worldwide

ISRO will continue work on their reusable shuttle

China will have at least 10 successful launches

Betelgeuse will go supernova this year as seen from Earth
Quote
I have read on the UK space news some interesting facts. Some of them are:

ULA now planning the first launch of Vulcan in 2021
Vulcan was presented on April 13, 2015. United Launch Alliance is planning to launch it in six years after presenting.

Trump seeks $15.4 billion for U.S. Space Force in 2021 budget
We can wait for something really perspective from this.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: JohnFornaro on 11/17/2020 01:16 pm
I predict that JWST will not launch under the Harris administration.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: woods170 on 11/17/2020 02:26 pm
I predict that a majority of the predictions in this thread will be proven to be wrong.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Andy_Small on 11/17/2020 07:52 pm
For sure there will be greater than 1 rocket launch in 2021.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Orbiter on 11/17/2020 08:11 pm
Not a prediction per say, but I anticipate 2021 to be one of the most exciting years for space exploration.

Artemis I, continued crewed flights between Dragon and CST-100, Starship orbital flight + Superheavy test campaigns, Falcon Heavy launches, Perseverance landing on Mars, New Glenn, Nauka, and, perhaps the crown jewel of it all, the launch of JWST bringing forward the greatest revolution in astronomy and astrophysics yet.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 11/17/2020 08:22 pm
One thing I would like to see in 2021 that the public probably wouldn't know about is if behind the scenes there is work being done to figure out how to fly Orion on another launcher such as Falcon Heavy, New Glenn or Vulcan even if refueling is required.  If they find that they could refurbish an Orion for significantly less than building a new capsule, maybe there could be significantly more flights out to the Gateway and eventually SLS could be given the proper burial it deserves.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Finn Mac Doreahn on 11/17/2020 09:28 pm
SpaceX

29 launches,most successful. One partial failure late in the year. Crew 2 launches in late March,Crew 3 in mid-July,Axiom-1 in October,Crew 4 at end of year.

Starship slogs along,reaches space in April and orbit in August. Late in the year the first crews are named. Elon is on one of them.

Starlink is completed in May,just in time for the 2nd anniversary of 0.9.

5 Falcon Heavy launches, the two USSF launches, ViaSat, another commercial satellite, and something unannounced as yet.

Boeing,Rocket Lab,ULA,etc

OFT-2 and CFT go well. First operational crew mission in autumn.

5-7 Atlas V launches in 2021,excepting CST-100. ViaSat goes up in July.

All 3 Delta IV launches are successful.

3 LauncherOne launches. One fails to place its payload in quite the right orbit. Contracts for 10 more are signed.

Firefly Alpha flies 6 times. Beta is static fired and Gamma is given a go.

12-15 Electron launches, including 3 or 4 from Wallops. LC-3 debuts in November. Lunar Scout flies in September.

Blue Origin flies 5 missions, including 3 with crew. New Glenn is static fired and nabs some sweet launch contracts. New Armstrong turns out to be an ‘SSTO+‘ spaceplane about the size of the 707.

NASA

ISS ticks along without much fanfare. Nauka makes it to ISS at end of April despite some minor technical issues. A micrometeoroid scare in June almost leads to the station being evacuated.

Perseverance lands successfully. Much science is obtained. Ingenuity flies in May,gets some nice pics.

NASA decides,regarding Juno EOM,to use Jupiter’s gravity field to slingshot Juno back into solar orbit. Scott Manley makes a cool KSP video about this. 

Green Run takes place in January,no major issues. Artemis 1 is stacked over summer,flies at beginning of October. IM-1 is manifested with Artemis 1 because Rule of Cool. Both missions are a success.

(repeated from last time) Artemis 2 crew is announced at some point. There will be an international crew member. It will be Samantha Cristoforetti.

JWST launches on Halloween,successfully reaches L2 on 10 November. Science begins.

The new astronaut group is announced for Christmas,consists of about 20 people.

ESA

After a dramatic-ish VV17 investigation,regular Vega is cancelled and all payloads shifted to Vega-C or Soyuz. Vega-C,after being renamed to Vega 2,first flies in late spring.

Soyuz and Ariane 6 get various payload contracts. By end of year Callisto is static fired.

A few Ariane 5 missions,nothing really happens there.

A new spationaut group is announced in November. About 16 people,2 or 3 of them British.

Russia

2 Angaras,4 Protons,13 Soyuz,one failure.

Work on a Falcon 9 style rocket begins. Putin starts mulling state-sponsored Electron equivalent.

An action movie is partially filmed at Baikonur.

Other Asian nations

Launches return to normal for China. Tianhe launches over the summer. A new taikonaut group is announced. Tianwen and Chang’e 5 are successful:after dropping off the sample capsule the Chang’e 5 orbiter is diverted to an NEO flyby. A Venus balloon gets approved.

8 launches from Japan.

H3 debuts without fanfare.

MMX is Go for launch in 2024. A sample return mission gets approved for 2029.

HTV-X gets approved for Gateway. Launch will be on Falcon Heavy.

Gaganyaan 1 is successful,but Gaganyaan 2 gets pushed into 2022. The first Gaganyaan crew is announced.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: freddo411 on 11/17/2020 10:17 pm
I predict that JWST will not launch under the Harris administration.

Yikes,   That would be quite the delay.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Toast on 11/17/2020 10:47 pm
I predict that a majority of the predictions in this thread will be proven to be wrong.

I predict that most predictions here will turn out to be wrong.

As is tradition.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: archfan7411 on 11/17/2020 11:29 pm
Longtime lurker but only recently registered, figured I'd add mine. I think that:

- We see a full up Starship/Superheavy stack, and first flights will use less than 28 engines. I'm 50/50 on orbit actually being achieved but if it is I'm betting it'll be in Q4.

- JWST gets delayed again.

- Artemis I does not occur in 2021 due to SLS delays.

- OFT-2 and further Starliner flights are completed successfully thanks to heavy NASA scrutiny.

- SpaceX flies >24 missions and encounters no failures outside of Starship development and FH center core landings.

- SpaceX flies the first fully private crew on Axiom-1 in addition to regular Commercial Crew missions. The Tom Cruise movie, when released in 2022, is a flop and contains a disappointingly small amount of actual ISS footage. The mission is still fantastic PR for NASA and SpaceX.

- We don't see much regarding New Glenn, and Blue Origin encounters further difficulties with the BE4. Vulcan may still launch within 2021.

- Dynetics survives the HLS downselect.

- SpaceX unveils a crew design for Starship, most likely for Starship HLS.

- Rocket Lab attempts to recover every booster they launch, and makes progress on refurbishment.

- NROL-44 launches in early 2021.

- Starlink begins to rake in a substantial amount of revenue and will break even with launch costs and begin to be truly profitable in Q3.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: ncb1397 on 11/17/2020 11:38 pm
My predictions for 2021...

1.) over the course of the year,  the earth will make roughly one rotation around the sun
2.) over that single rotation, the earth will spin on its axis roughly 365 times.

Feel pretty strongly about these predictions. YMMV.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Proponent on 11/18/2020 01:17 pm
Congress will fail to fund Artemis at a level consistent with a 2028 moon landing, let alone 2024.  Orion and SLS will, however, be generously funded, leaving NASA in the same place its been since 2005, namely with the obligation to build congressionally preferred hardware but without the funds to put it to good use.

Artemis 1 will slip to 2022.

EDIT:  Added everything after "2028 moon landing"
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: JohnFornaro on 11/18/2020 05:35 pm
For sure there will be greater than 1 rocket launch in 2021.

I'll raise ya one launch.  Two.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Lars-J on 11/19/2020 12:48 am
I predict that JWST will not launch under the Harris administration.

When does the Harris administration begin?  ::)  C'mon, let us elevate the discussion here.

Edit/Lar: That would be politics. Don't go there
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: high road on 11/19/2020 08:52 am

Impending death of all astronauts on ISS is announced due to three separate occasions. Each time, weeks or months later, the problem is resolved, without any astronaut ever having been in significant danger.

NASA discovers water on the moon and Mars several times.

Starship goes orbital late in the year. Landing is still problematic.

HLS, being underfunded, doesn't really move anywhere. NASA finds a way to keep all three companies on board. SpaceX is the only company that actually moves along meaningfully (by merit of Starship progress). Blue Origin makes a great show about how much progress they make, while simultaneously blaming lack of funding from NASA for not making progress.

No launch of H3, Ariane 6, New Glenn, or Vulcan. SLS first launch near the end of the year. No paying passengers on NS or by VG, but there are one or two test missions per vehicle. At the end of the year, only 'a few more test flights' are required to get paying passengers on NS. No ticket price or sales are announced. Only one or two test flights for VO, no fully paid for mission yet.

The number of Starlink users increases exponentially, increasing the amount of cash Starlink is burning, as users initially pay less than the dish production costs.

SpaceX' non-Starlink launches show little growth.

Anything more positive than this would be a win for me.  :)
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Dalhousie on 11/19/2020 09:27 am
China achieves 40 launches.

Tianwen lands successfully and rover deploys

Yutu 2 continues lunar operations

Chang'e 5 successful returns samples

ISS routinely operates with seven crew

Starliner flies successfully

Nauka docks successfully

SLS has successful launch

James Webb launches successfully and after prolonged calibration, begins to return great science

SS eventually reaches 18km



Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Bubbinski on 11/20/2020 03:27 pm
Okay, here goes.

- By the end of 2021 the big worry of the world won’t be COVID. A regional hot spot flares into a wider war, and space assets are a part of this war. One or two incidents will cause space debris which will have to be dealt with

- Mars Rover Perseverance successfully lands on Mars in February and begins its mission.

- SpaceX will launch Crew-2, Crew-3, and the AXIOM mission

- By Christmas 2021 the first Starship orbital flight will be in advanced preparations. During the year there will be times of strong advance and good testing interspersed with setbacks, but overall progress

- Artemis-1 is pushed back to the first quarter of 2022, but by Christmas the flight will be in advanced preparations. Whispers about SLS program cancellation but nothing happens in that respect

- James Webb Space Telescope launches successfully in Q4 2021.

- China finally returns taikonauts to space by the end of the year. Tianhe-1 core is launched, Chinese station ops begin

- Tianwen successfully lands on Mars

- India launches the first uncrewed Gaganyaan mission in late 2021, there is chatter they won’t be able to meet their target for launching crewed Gaganyaan in 2022

- Chandrayaan-3 successfully launches and lands on the Moon, fixing the problems with the Chandrayaan-2 lander

- UAE’s Hope mission successfully orbits Mars and starts its mission.

- Boeing Starliner suffers a few delays but OFT-2 finally launches by Q3 and CFT launches by Q4. Starliner first operational flight in 2022

- ULA Vulcan first flight delayed to 2022. By end of year engine issues finally resolved

- ULA gets two Delta 4 Heavy launches in and successfully launches Landsat-9 from Vandenberg

- Between Virgin Orbit, Astra, Firefly, Vector, etc. someone successfully starts launching on a regular basis and becomes a competitor to RocketLab. However, not all of these companies will make it through 2021 and a launch industry shakeout begins

- Virgin Galactic finally puts Sir Richard Branson into space by Christmas 2021.(the USAF definition of space at 50 miles anyway). But New Shepard is shut down without ever putting a single person above the Karman Line. VG and Axiom are the big “games in town” when it comes to space tourism.

- Blue Origin finally shows off serious progress on New Glenn. But nothing is still known about New Armstrong and the National Team’s Artemis lander bid loses to Dynetics and SpaceX

- Artemis 2024 lunar landing officially off the table, with 2026-2028 being the new target. Program continues with some cuts, rescoping

- One exoplanet discovery makes significant news. An exomoon is finally confirmed

- Gyroscope or other system failures aboard Hubble Telescope give rise to talk and then serious planning about a new servicing mission with Crew Dragon, Starliner, or Starship

- There will be some talk and a push to replace Arecibo but no action is taken on that front, nothing is formally approved. Green Bank/Kitt Peak/Goldstone future upgrades will become the focus of US radio astronomy

- Starlink will become operational for all US/Canada users by Christmas. The sunshades will be moderately successful at reducing some of the worst impacts for ground based astronomy and the night sky, but more will need to be done

- A major materials or medical science discovery will be made by ISS as the additional capability enabled by a 7 member crew starts to make itself felt. However, the station will come perilously close to evacuation during the course of the year as space debris and age make their presence felt

- On a personal level I’ll finish at least one more space model and my Level 1 rocket. And I’ll finally make it out to the Cape for a launch after KSCVC fully reopens with all attractions available and I get vaccinated from COVID

2021 is going to be quite a ride for space folk!


Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: theprotobe on 11/22/2020 02:17 pm
Okay! Here we go,  let's eat crow!

-Pandemic slows and halts by mid-2021, thanks to ring vaccination and general vaccination efforts

-SpaceX launches 3 manned missions, and prepares for the Space Adventures mission

-SpaceX breaks 30 launches a year

-SpaceX Superheavy booster encounters issues during testing, but flies a hop in Q3 2021. A 20 engine or more-booster will be ready by the end of the year.

-James Webb launches as planned in late October or early November

-Astra and Firefly reach orbit

-Starlink will be ready for operations north and south of the 35th parallel respectively by the end of the year.

-All Mars missions get there safely. The Tianwen-1 rover might experience a parachute issue or lander issue that results in the end of the mission.

-OFT-2 launches, encounters a couple of issues, but Boeing is cleared to proceed to CFT.

-Biden administration appoints Kendra Horn as NASA administrator, and delays the Moon landing to 2026.

-NASA picks ultimately DHLS and Moonship for their human landing system.

-NASA begins cooperation with SpaceX on Starlink capabilities.

-SpaceX transporter missions become competitive with smallsat launchers, forcing companies like RocketLab to adapt

-Trident and DAVINCI will be chosen for Discovery missions 15 and 16

-EnVision cooperates with VERITAS and/or its scientists, whether or not it gets chosen

-EHT releases preliminary data on Sagittarius A*, but doesn't release an image

-Blue Origin announces New Glenn will be delayed to 2022

-Discussions begin on possible satellite servicing by Crew Dragon or Starliner

-Interior mock-ups for Moonship will be ready

-Dynetics begin small VTOL tests for DHLS
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Lekhan on 11/23/2020 12:23 pm
I just wanted to admit some UK Space agency plans for nearest future.
10 new satellites to be built in Glasgow in next three years as part of new innovative constellation service.
It will be as small as shoe boxes and will help companies to access space more easily.
Also UK Space agency planning to collect data that is indispensable for ocean and weather forecasts and climate understanding over the next decade with The Sentinel-6 satellite, which is the size of a small 4x4 car and will orbit around Earth 830 miles above our planet.
I think that's some interesting and good news.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Robert Hags on 11/26/2020 02:12 pm
I just wanted to admit some UK Space agency plans for nearest future.
10 new satellites to be built in Glasgow in next three years as part of new innovative constellation service.
It will be as small as shoe boxes and will help companies to access space more easily.
Also UK Space agency planning to collect data that is indispensable for ocean and weather forecasts and climate understanding over the next decade with The Sentinel-6 satellite, which is the size of a small 4x4 car and will orbit around Earth 830 miles above our planet.
I think that's some interesting and good news.

Yes, you are right. Britain is actually taking a step forward. Although it still needs to catch up with NASA and ESA, so in the future UK Space agency will not be behind. But for this reason very neccesarry to allocate more funds for the space industry.
Also I wouldn't be sure about the climate as that thing changes everytime and very difficult to predict what will happen in 50 years. It would be great if the agency cooperated with the Ministry of Defense, since the advanced countries are now developing the space industry in the defense spheres. And as we know, competition and the arms race almost always brought the development of science and technology.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: 50_Caliber on 12/03/2020 01:46 am
SpaceX will get to orbit with the Starship by years end. Heat tiles and orbital refueling will present some problems for them to overcome.

Mars Perseverance will find evidence of life on Mars.

Artemis program will see major shifts in their priorities due to changes in presidential administrations, possibly even defunded.

All the rest of the space industry- China's lunar probes will provide some interesting data, other space agencies should show some modest success.

Honestly, SpaceX and it's ambitions will loom ever larger and be the focus of humanities efforts in space.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Toast on 12/03/2020 03:11 pm
Here's my predictions

The Good:
-Starship successfully reaches orbit
-US regains global launch lead
-Rocketlab reflies a first stage
-Starliner has successful uncrewed return to flight

The Bad:
-Artemis 1 delayed again and does not fly in 2021
-Firefly has their inaugural launch, but it fails to reach orbit
-No other US small launch company successfully reaches orbit
-SpaceX has at least two Starship RUDs during flight testing
-Still no space tourism launches

The Ugly:
-Elon tweets something stupid again and triggers another public backlash
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: freddo411 on 12/03/2020 03:59 pm
It's groundhog day again for predictions.   So similar to last year (2020):   I did really well predicting last year, 18/22.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2011747#msg2011747

2021 Predictions

* JWST does not launch in 2021.   I hope I'm wrong about this.
 --- JWST manages to squeak in a launch on Dec 25th, just before the end of 2020

* SLS does not launch in 2021.   

* Ariane does not field a reusable rocket.

* ULA does not field a reusable rocket.

* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket in 2021.

* 49 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO. (No dear moon in 2021)

* China successfully flies an impressive mission that provides some Chinese firsts, and some overall firsts.

* A Starship DOES launch to at least 15km in 2021.
 --- Technically, Starship flew to a lower altitude ceiling.   

* A Starship launches high enough and fast enough to test it's heat shield.

* A Super Heavy Booster hops.

* Falcon Heavy flies again

* Crew Dragon flies at least once (again).

* Falcon 9 continues to fly more than Atlas V.  Falcon 9 reliability in 2021 is as perfect as Atlas V's.

* SX flies more orbital missions than any other year.  More than 26.

* A reused F9 S1 will fly on it's 9th flight, and it's 10th flight.

* Starlink satellites #1400 - ?? will reach orbit.   SX will offer Starlink service anywhere in the continental USA.  SX sets record for the operator of more satellites than the rest of the world combined.

* Over 100,000 Starlink terminals operating by end of 2021.   Equivalent to a 100 million dollar a year revenue stream.  (corrected)

* SpaceX wins fewer Human Lunar lander funds than it's competitors, despite their lower costs, high demonstrated historic reliability, and actual existing, flying hardware.  This, in hindsight, will prove to be a mistake.

 --- SURPRIZE.  SpaceX wins the HLS competition.   Other bids are rejected

* Boeing flies a Starliner, it has problems (different than the MET timer and parachute connections), but NASA and Boeing put on smiles and call the mission a success.

* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 7 times

 --- 6 attempts, 5 successes in 2021

* Rocket lab has success in it's reusable first stage development program, it reflies a first stage.

* Another small sat launcher flies successfully to orbit

* A small sat launcher fails to achieve an attempted orbital flight .

* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem

 --- I was SO, COMPLETELY right about this one

* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government

* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.

* Ariane launches 5 or fewer rockets ( not including VEGA or soyuz)

Edit:  Final score for 2021 is 18/27
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: DreamyPickle on 12/03/2020 06:22 pm
-US regains global launch lead
According to wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_in_spaceflight#By_country) the US launched 38 times this year versus 35 for China and is likely to finish the year ahead. It's also the biggest US launch rate in many years, maybe since the 60s.

That statistic considers Electron to be an US rocket.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Toast on 12/03/2020 07:45 pm
-US regains global launch lead
According to wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_in_spaceflight#By_country) the US launched 38 times this year versus 35 for China and is likely to finish the year ahead. It's also the biggest US launch rate in many years, maybe since the 60s.

That statistic considers Electron to be an US rocket.
I was using Ed Kyle's numbers, which consider Electron a kiwi rocket. He places the total at China 35, US 30 for this year. Even without Electron it'll be close, depending on how many Starlink launches SpaceX can cram in this month. I'm definitely confident about US launch supremacy in 2021, it's probably the safest bet on my list (except maybe the Artemis delay, which is already almost assured after the Orion issue last month).
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: RedLineTrain on 12/03/2020 10:10 pm
* Over 100,000 Starlink terminals operating by end of 2021.   Equivalent to a billion dollar a year revenue stream.

An order of magnitude seems lost here...
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: spacenut on 12/04/2020 03:08 am
What is America's tonnage to orbit vs. China?  We should be way ahead.  F9/FH, Atlas V, Delta IV, all can carry more payload to orbit than most of China's rockets. 
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: john smith 19 on 12/04/2020 06:49 am
Vulcan will launch successfully. It's ULA's future and they know it.

RL will do their first successful mid-air recovery and re-flight.  Fully expendable will remain an option however.

SCramjet advocates will continue to talk up the Russian and Chinese threat to shake funding loose.

SS will make orbit in Q4
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: the_other_Doug on 12/05/2020 05:39 pm
NROL-44 will not fly until at least the second quarter of 2021.  The NRO will stop awarding ULA launch contracts over this, will pull at least one bird off of a future Delta launch, and will take the unprecedented step of publicly stating what they are doing, and why.

ULA will also lose a rocket and payload in flight in 2021, causing a massive shake-up in management.  It will be a close thing as to whether they will still be in business by 2022.I

Boeing, seeing what happens to ULA in 2021, will finally realize that the good old days of having the government tightly over a barrel are over, and will finally begin a real corporate restructuring aimed at saving the company.  We'll have to wait until at least 2022 to find out if they succeed.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: freddo411 on 12/05/2020 07:13 pm
NROL-44 will not fly until at least the second quarter of 2021.  The NRO will stop awarding ULA launch contracts over this, will pull at least one bird off of a future Delta launch, and will take the unprecedented step of publicly stating what they are doing, and why.

ULA will also lose a rocket and payload in flight in 2021, causing a massive shake-up in management.  It will be a close thing as to whether they will still be in business by 2022.I

Boeing, seeing what happens to ULA in 2021, will finally realize that the good old days of having the government tightly over a barrel are over, and will finally begin a real corporate restructuring aimed at saving the company.  We'll have to wait until at least 2022 to find out if they succeed.

Wow. Bold predictions
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Hauerg on 12/05/2020 07:36 pm
What is America's tonnage to orbit vs. China?  We should be way ahead.  F9/FH, Atlas V, Delta IV, all can carry more payload to orbit than most of China's rockets.
But except for F9 only very few flights.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: yoram on 12/07/2020 03:13 am
My predictions will be similarly reliable as last years, that is somewhat less than random chance.

SpaceX:
Falcon more and more establishes itself as a reliable workhorse like Soyuz.
9th Falcon 1st stage reuse happens on a Starlink/rideshare flight.
No attempt at 24-48h reuse turnaround
First "full price" customers start using water landed reused fairings
Musk looks another 10 years older and some serious rumor about his health.

SS doesn't make it to orbit, but has some successful flights.
First hop of Super Heavy.

NASA:
Artemis moon landing is pushed back to 2026
No NASA administrator named in 2021
SLS doesn't fly.
JWST has another delay.

Russia:
A successful test campaign for Amur's methane engine
Serious rumors about cancelling Angara due to non competitive costs
Orel doesn't make much progress

ULA:
Vulcan has a successful debut launch.

Blue Origin:
New Glenn doesn't launch
New Shepard has less than 3 flights.

China:
No successful first stage landing.

RocketLab:
No successful first stage reuse, but they're coming back in one piece.

ArianeSpace:
Ariane keeps losing market share
A6 doesn't fly
First stage reuse demonstrator in development, but no flights so far.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: marcogreco on 12/09/2020 05:48 pm
"Betelgeuse will go supernova this year as seen from Earth"

Actually quite unlikely. Recent strange dimming has been explained and is not looking like pre-explosion dimming. But yes, scientist agree it will explode in universal perception of time soon, that is in 100.000 years - still quite long for us humans.
So your chance of predicting it right is somewhere near 1:100.000.  ;D
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: jebbo on 12/09/2020 05:56 pm
"Betelgeuse will go supernova this year as seen from Earth"

Actually quite unlikely. Recent strange dimming has been explained and is not looking like pre-explosion dimming. But yes, scientist agree it will explode in universal perception of time soon, that is in 100.000 years - still quite long for us humans.
So your chance of predicting it right is somewhere near 1:100.000.  ;D

It's probably worse than that as recent distance measurements from Coriolis mean it is probably ~25% smaller than previous estimates, and hence much longer lived.

--- Tony
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 12/11/2020 02:31 pm
NROL-44 will not fly until at least the second quarter of 2021.  The NRO will stop awarding ULA launch contracts over this, will pull at least one bird off of a future Delta launch, and will take the unprecedented step of publicly stating what they are doing, and why.

ULA will also lose a rocket and payload in flight in 2021, causing a massive shake-up in management.  It will be a close thing as to whether they will still be in business by 2022.I

Boeing, seeing what happens to ULA in 2021, will finally realize that the good old days of having the government tightly over a barrel are over, and will finally begin a real corporate restructuring aimed at saving the company.  We'll have to wait until at least 2022 to find out if they succeed.
I've never seen a prediction for a year proven wrong before the year even started.  Why the hate for ULA?
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: the_other_Doug on 12/11/2020 04:40 pm
NROL-44 will not fly until at least the second quarter of 2021.  The NRO will stop awarding ULA launch contracts over this, will pull at least one bird off of a future Delta launch, and will take the unprecedented step of publicly stating what they are doing, and why.

ULA will also lose a rocket and payload in flight in 2021, causing a massive shake-up in management.  It will be a close thing as to whether they will still be in business by 2022.I

Boeing, seeing what happens to ULA in 2021, will finally realize that the good old days of having the government tightly over a barrel are over, and will finally begin a real corporate restructuring aimed at saving the company.  We'll have to wait until at least 2022 to find out if they succeed.
I've never seen a prediction for a year proven wrong before the year even started.  Why the hate for ULA?

Yeah, that got blown out of the water quickly, didn't it?  ;)

I'm not hating on anyone, I'm looking at the evolution of the aerospace industry and the last, struggling gasps of the system that has always been based on inflated costs, and millions upon millions of dollars that went into the pockets of the aerospace industry owners, a lot of which found its way back into the pockets of the Senators who kept the billions upon billions in pork flowing through.

SpaceX has changed the paradigm permanently, and is about to shatter it into tiny little bits.  When your satellite can be one of 15 or 20 payloads going to GEO, being launched on a single Starship flight, reducing your launch cost to a few million or less, how likely are you to spend a third of a billion dollars on a single Atlas or Vulcan?  How will you justify it to the GAO?

Given those facts, you will eventually see the huge dinosaur aerospace companies start acting irrationally, as the changing of the paradigm becomes more and more apparent and their historic funding cycle (the inflated costs that go to feeding money back to the politicians who keep the business rolling in) is forced to come to an end.  Suddenly seeming incompetent at launching one's own rockets could well be a symptom of these irrational thrashings that the big companies could present before they finally understand the new paradigm and actually start adapting to it.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 12/11/2020 05:29 pm
NROL-44 will not fly until at least the second quarter of 2021.  The NRO will stop awarding ULA launch contracts over this, will pull at least one bird off of a future Delta launch, and will take the unprecedented step of publicly stating what they are doing, and why.

ULA will also lose a rocket and payload in flight in 2021, causing a massive shake-up in management.  It will be a close thing as to whether they will still be in business by 2022.I

Boeing, seeing what happens to ULA in 2021, will finally realize that the good old days of having the government tightly over a barrel are over, and will finally begin a real corporate restructuring aimed at saving the company.  We'll have to wait until at least 2022 to find out if they succeed.
I've never seen a prediction for a year proven wrong before the year even started.  Why the hate for ULA?

Yeah, that got blown out of the water quickly, didn't it?  ;)

I'm not hating on anyone, I'm looking at the evolution of the aerospace industry and the last, struggling gasps of the system that has always been based on inflated costs, and millions upon millions of dollars that went into the pockets of the aerospace industry owners, a lot of which found its way back into the pockets of the Senators who kept the billions upon billions in pork flowing through.

SpaceX has changed the paradigm permanently, and is about to shatter it into tiny little bits.  When your satellite can be one of 15 or 20 payloads going to GEO, being launched on a single Starship flight, reducing your launch cost to a few million or less, how likely are you to spend a third of a billion dollars on a single Atlas or Vulcan?  How will you justify it to the GAO?

Given those facts, you will eventually see the huge dinosaur aerospace companies start acting irrationally, as the changing of the paradigm becomes more and more apparent and their historic funding cycle (the inflated costs that go to feeding money back to the politicians who keep the business rolling in) is forced to come to an end.  Suddenly seeming incompetent at launching one's own rockets could well be a symptom of these irrational thrashings that the big companies could present before they finally understand the new paradigm and actually start adapting to it.
SpaceX has proven you can do this differently and be very successful.  Predicting how that will change the market and when isn't so easy.  It's like trying to time the stock market.  People can easily lose fortunes doing that. (I hope you didn't bet anyone on the NROL-44 prediction)  ULA still has some time to figure out a long term strategy beyond what they have publicly announced about Vulcan to compete.  But not a lot of time.  I think they will still execute what the business they have booked very well.  Their long term future outlook is why there has been speculation about them eventually merging with Blue Origin.  We'll just have to wait and see what they and other SpaceX competitors do the rest of this decade.  It makes these annual predictions fun to watch and take part in.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: hektor on 12/11/2020 05:57 pm
Ok here I go

Two Starship explode during a refueling test in orbit, generating a cloud of a 250 tons of Space débris, triggering the Kessler syndrome and putting an end to space flight for the next few centuries.

End of the story.

Did I get that right? ;)
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 12/11/2020 06:09 pm
Ok here I go

Two Starship explode during a refueling test in orbit, generating a cloud of a 250 tons of Space débris, triggering the Kessler syndrome and putting an end to space flight for the next few centuries.

End of the story.

Did I get that right? ;)
No just because it is unlikely that there will be any testing of refueling in orbit in 2021.  2022 is probably when testing will first take place.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: DreamyPickle on 12/11/2020 06:45 pm
Two Starship explode during a refueling test in orbit, generating a cloud of a 250 tons of Space débris, triggering the Kessler syndrome and putting an end to space flight for the next few centuries.
Refueling would most likely happen in very low orbit and any debris after an explosion would quickly fall back to the ground.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: hektor on 12/11/2020 06:57 pm
It was a joke. That being said the Indian asat test took place at less than 300 km and celestrak has still debris in orbit monitored as of today..
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: yoram on 12/13/2020 07:16 pm

Quote
First "full price" customers start using water landed reused fairings

Looks like SXM-7 used "net landed" fairings. I guess that's close enough (happened already in '20, not '21) to be near a miss.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 12/13/2020 08:24 pm
Predictions 2021

My 2019 predictions weren’t as good as my 2018 predictions.  My 2020 predictions were not as good as my 2019 predictions.  Once again, most of my misses were from being too optimistic on timelines for things to happen.  So here goes:

Space Tourism
   Space Tourism will finally actually start by the end of this millennium (sarcasm)
      
        Blue Origin  (everything two years later than my predictions for 2019)
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
        Virgin Galactic
                Another delay from test flight that failed
            Richard Branson takes flight in Q3
                First tourist flight in Q4

Commercial Crew
        Dragon
                Has a good year with all missions successful
        CST-100
            Unmanned test flight will discover new issues delaying crewed test flight
                Crewed test flight pushed to Q4 2021 and successful

SLS
        Green run discovers a few issues to clean up
        Stays enough on schedule for 2021 Q4 launch

Orion
        Artemis 1 flight successful by end of 2021
   Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut)
   Artemis 3 plan changes to mission to Gateway only.  First landing moved to Artemis 6 or 7

SpaceX
        Falcon 9 perfect record again
      Starlink deployment continues successfully with subscriptions steadily increasing
      Dragon - See above
        Starship
                Steady development, but slower than expected
         Lunar Starship development slows since NASA didn't get budget request
         Heat shield issues take longer than expected to resolve
         Another prototype before successful landing
      Super Heavy
         Flies several times, but not with Starship in 2021

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                Launch pad for New Glenn completed
      First launch pushed to 2022
      Blue works quietly with Lockheed towards Orion flying on New Glenn
      Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable for Moon and beyond
        Blue Moon Lander
                NASA delays planned landing until NET 2026 providng reduced funding.
      Continues fully funding development of Descent Element with internal funds while NG and Lockheed slow down their part due to reduced NASA funding.

ULA
        All launches successful
        Vulcan launches by year end

Small Launchers
   Market grows slowly and many smaller players drop out.
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches (prediction will finally happen in 2021)
        Rocket Lab
                One successful first stage helicopter recovery by year's end

Stratolauncher
        Fly carrier aircraft at least five times to test flying characteristics
      Talon development progresses steadijy

Lunar landers
        National Team and SpaceX survive downselect
        Awards slow development contracts The National Team and SpaceX
   first mission date moves to NET 2026
   NASA tries to build case for bigger HLS budget in 2022

ISS
        More maintenance issues pop up as station ages.
   Axiom makes steady progress for commercial station to eventually replace ISS
      
Gateway
        PPE/Minimum hab development slows down due to lack of new administration support
   Russia - talks continue but still no agreement to contribute
       
Artemis Program
        Target for lunar landing moved back to 2026 which really means 2030 or later.
   Planning for Artemis 3 to 6 become Gateway only missions.
     
Mars
        Development of Nuclear Thermal engine continues slower targeting 2028 in space test
   Mars Ice Mapper program starts
        SpaceX’s plan to send cargo version of Starship gets moved to 2026
      
NASA Administrator
   People will quickly miss Jim Bridenstine
      
NASA
   Will not be nearly as high a priority as it was in the last four years.
   No growth in funding over next four years.
   Lunar return priority fades as excuse is that Mars is the real goal sometimes woy out in the future.

I'm no longer nearly as optimistic about the pace of positive activity
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: hektor on 12/13/2020 09:56 pm
I am intrigued about your statement

Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut)

I know for a fact it cannot be a European, so I am wondering which nationality it would be in your prediction. Canada ? Japan ? Russia as a tool for mending the relationship ? another country ?
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Bruhman97 on 12/13/2020 10:00 pm
SLS will not be delayed and will launch in 2021!   
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Rebel44 on 12/14/2020 12:02 am
My prediction:

Space Tourism
Blue Origin: 3 manned flights of New Shepard
Virgin Galactic: 2 successful manned flights, but several flights being aborted due to technical issues

Commercial Crew
2 nominal Crew Dragon flights
Starliner uncrewed test flight goes OK in early Q3, but some smaller issues are found that delay the test fligh with crew into early 2022

SLS + Orion
between recently found issue with Orion and issues found during the SLS Green Run, the 1st flight of SLS gets delayed into Q2 2022

SpaceX
30+ flights of Falcon 9
all orbital launches successful
at least 1 Falcon 9 booster flying for 10+th time
1 or 2 more Starship prototypes get destroyed during test flights
successful suborbital (above the Karman Line) test flight of Starship in Q2
successful orbital launch of Superheavy + Starship in Q4, but failed Starship recovery from orbit


Blue Origin
The 1st launch of New Glenn delayed to mid-2022


ULA
All launches successful
Vulcan successfully launches by the end of 2021

Rocket Lab
8 launches - all successful
3 boosters recovered and 1 of them reused by the end of the year

Stratolauncher
2 launch failures and Stratolauncher goes bankrupt

NASA
SpaceX and Dynetics survive downselect with landing being planned for 2026
ISS gets support for operating until at least 2030
Gateway gets delayed
Due to SLS delays, Europa Clipper is finally approved to move to commercial launcher - Falcon Heavy is selected to launch it.
   
     
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: yoram on 12/14/2020 12:35 am
SpaceX and Dynetics survive downselect with landing being planned for 2026

No love for the national team? I guess the question is if Blue will go alone at a manned moon landing if they get selected out. Might be actually better for them because it would force them to develop the pieces owned by the other partners themselves, which might long term turn out much cheaper.

Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Jrcraft on 12/14/2020 01:14 am
USA:
Falcon 9 and Heavy do fine, at least one failed booster landing.
Starship will not make orbit in 21.
ULA flies Vulcan after some schedule slip, does fine.
ULA's other rockets do just fine.
Firefly alpha gets delayed a little bit. makes it to orbit, but requires a few minor changes before next flight.
Virgin orbit makes orbit, starts commercial operations, but launch dates consistently slip a bit.
Astra either makes it to orbit or goes under.
Rocket lab recovers a few boosters, does not refly any of them yet.
Antares does fine
Minotaur launches secret payload.
Pegasus gets a contract
Sir Richard fly's into space, but his flight is more into the middle of the year.
SLS is nearly ready to fly at the end of the year, gets pushed to early January.
New Glenn 2022.

Russia:
Two Angara launches.
Three proton launches.
Many Soyuz launches. A Fregat has to compensate for a mission.

Ariane Space:
JWST fly's end of the year.
Vega fly's again, but really only to use up remaining hardware .
Vega C flies, but Ariane 6 2022.

China:
Space station core module and crew launch.
Most launches are fine
Long March 3b fails during upper stage burn
A few more Chinese launches fail for a variety of reasons.

Iran:
Simorgh launch failure
Safir launch success.

Japan:
H3 flies end of the year

Israel:
Might launch another Ofek satellite.

DPRK:
No orbital launches

South Korea:
KSLV 2 launches.

Ukraine:
Cyclone-4m launches in 22

India:
Launches less rockets then are scheduled

Other:
Yet another TSTO powered by RP-1 and LoX is announced, NET 2022 to revolutionize smallsat access to space.
A few TSTO Rp-1 & LoX rockets that would have revolutionized smallsat access to space and were NET 2022 go out of business.
BPS.Space lands a rocket.

Personal:
I fly the aerospike engine I've been working on for the last couple months.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Rebel44 on 12/14/2020 01:27 am
SpaceX and Dynetics survive downselect with landing being planned for 2026

No love for the national team? I guess the question is if Blue will go alone at a manned moon landing if they get selected out. Might be actually better for them because it would force them to develop the pieces owned by the other partners themselves, which might long term turn out much cheaper.

From what I read, the National Team appears to be the most expensive option and still have lots of risks just like other options - so given the NASA desire to get 2 contract winners and the limited budget they can expect, I don't see a particularly good reason for the National Team to survive the downselect.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 12/14/2020 09:02 pm
I am intrigued about your statement

Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut)

I know for a fact it cannot be a European, so I am wondering which nationality it would be in your prediction. Canada ? Japan ? Russia as a tool for mending the relationship ? another country ?
I think there will be pressure to slow down the program even beyond slowing the landers through not getting the budget required.  Making the program even more international by promising a seat to another country (doesn't matter which one) puts pressure on politicians to not slowdown or cancel the program.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Ladena on 12/16/2020 04:32 pm
I hope that in 2021 we will have rocket flights at least. As what comes to vacation I don't even go to the office. My work is monitored by remote employee monitoring software (https://www.worktime.com/). Hopefully, in 2021, I'll have the opportunity for domestic trips, at least even if it seems impossible now.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: hektor on 12/16/2020 04:34 pm
Indeed there is a Canadian astronaut on Artemis 2. That was a correct prediction.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 12/16/2020 05:04 pm
Indeed there is a Canadian astronaut on Artemis 2. That was a correct prediction.
That was the quickest prediction proven correct I ever made.  Maybe I should go buy a lottery ticket.  Though I did predict that the announcement would happen in 2021.  I think Jim Bridenstine read my prediction and rushed the announcement so I wouldn't be completely right. :o ::) ;D ;D ;D :D :D
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Lar on 12/26/2020 09:30 pm
My predictions for 2021.. somewhat rehashed from 2021, which were rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2020:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2031118#msg2031118
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2172520#msg2172520
2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

2021 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 20 (up from 15 last year) flights, I guessed 33 in the poll: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52633.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (same as last year, they didn't)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (same as last year, they made it)
- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered at least one of those times (lost last year, this year I will win. Maybe. Maybe just half. There are two on the manifest.)
- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (same, this is an easy one for 21)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (20 saw FAA opening RFC, this will continue)
- CommsX (what I fondly call Starlink still) constellation will see at least another 600 satellites launched (this is lowball actually)
- Starlink Beta will expand to include at least 5x more surface area but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers)
- At least 1 Starlink satellite will be released by a Starship into orbit by end of year. (this requires them making orbit)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and will be serious tunneling on more than one project at once. Vegas initial boring project completed, operational and work proceeding on route/system expansion. At least one other project will be underway somewhere. There will be new TBMs that are refinements of what did the Vegas work.
- Dragon launched passengers last year, twice. This year there will be more Dragon crew launched than Starliner crew (this requires at least one launch).
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last three years)
- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 75% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 6 fairing halves will be reused successfully. (up from 60% and 4 reused fairing halves)
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration (probably gonna lose this one, did last year)
- There will be no significant name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020 (I've been playing black saying there would be and missing the spin, let's try red)
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc) (repeat. cmon, anything??) by SpaceX
- by some credible third party (Bechtel, Caterpillar... you get the idea)

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2021 (repeat... maybe this year?)
- Boeing will be credibly alleged to have done some skullduggery of some sort. (too easy but I can't help meself)
- NASA will downselect to not include Starship as the oldSpace contractors show their muscle (hoping to be wrong)

- Enough with the detailed ULA picks about IVF/Centaur!!! I give up. This year ULA does nothing to advance either of these. Changed from black to red again.
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)
- ULA will have at least one launch campaign that scrubs 5 or more times before a successful (or otherwise) launch (should have had this one last year, LOL *cough* Delta IV)

- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 2 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (three years ago was >5, then >4, last year >3).
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- Artemis will make progress and the lander downselect won't be to just one lander. (SpaceX in/out (above) doesn't affect this outcome)

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of 2 years ago and last year which was 7/6)
- By year end there will be at least 2 Electron recoveries that were at least partially successful, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (up from one last year, which I won)

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (threepeat of last year... cmon)
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (threepeat of last year...  TBF they did have a launch)
- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (repeat. no customers yet but not mothballed)

- Voyager will announce at least one more surprise acquisition beyond Nanoracks

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).

Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Skamp_X on 12/27/2020 01:01 am
Always enjoy these, first time joining in.
-SN9 fails at some point during flight.
-SN10 total success.
-SH SN1 hop success , does not fly again.
-SH SN2 with not full engine count launches low mass starship to orbit ,success , will be reused for more test.
-Starship reaches orbit end of year , reentry but soft lands in ocean. (intentionally)

-China mars lander lands successfully
-JWTS delayed but launches before end of year , major problems are discovered soon after. (hope not)

-Planet 9 is not found
-2nd planet at proxima century is confirmed , 3th planet smaller then earth is speculated
-No aliens contact us

-National team and dynetics get 2nd round, spacex moonship is considered for cargo only delivery.
-Moonlanding pushed back to 2028
 



Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: nacnud on 12/27/2020 02:04 am
My prediction from a currently flooding and plague ridden UK

Locusts
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Tobias_Corbett on 12/28/2020 09:16 pm
Okay my predictions last year were a bit of a disaster but here we go again anyway.

NASA
- Artemis I flies in Q4, Artemis II's crew is named, includes three NASA astronauts (one woman) and one Canadian astronaut.
- Dynetics and SpaceX are down-selected for Artemis HLS
- Congress increases funding for Artemis, although first landing is pushed back to 2028 and a later mission.
- Artemis III is changed to a gateway only flight, Artemis IV becomes an un crewed lander-Orion test flight.
- Europa Clipper is moved to a commercial launch vehicle from SLS.
- Pamela Melroy is sworn in as NASA's 14th Administrator (this one is extremely specific but I still feel confident about it).

SpaceX
-SN9 hops to 12.5km, destroyed on landing.
-SN10 repeats the 12.5km hops but is able to land without blowing up, before tipping over and being damaged beyond repair.
-Towards the end of the year SN11 becomes the first Starship prototype to complete return from a 12.5km hop in one piece.
-Lunar Starship mockup is completed, Artemis astronauts begin flying down to Texas to start training on the mockup/actively taking part in development.
-BN1 is completed, performs static fire but blows up.
-Crew-2, Crew-3 and AX-1 all fly to the ISS successfully. Crew-4 is penciled for 2022 with the exact launch date depending on Starliner-1.

CNSA
-Tianhe 1 launches in Q1.
-Shenzhou 12 carries three Chinese taikonauts to the station in Q2, followed by Shenzhou 13 in Q4.
-The landing site for Chang'e 6 is selected and is set to launch on the first ever sample return mission to the far side of the Moon in 2025.

Rocketlab
-First successful launches from LC-2 and LC-1B are carried out.
-A booster is successfully recovered.

Boeing
-Boe-OFT2 flies in Q2, followed by CFT in Q4.
-Starliner-1 is scheduled for 2022, a JAXA astronaut is added to the crew.

NSF
-NASASpaceflight.com's youngest writer, Tobias Corbett, finally manages to write an article free of a single typo.

Space Politics
-The incoming Biden administration's space policy prioritizes climate science over human spaceflight, despite this the Artemis program pulls of the impossible and survives a change of administration.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Danderman on 12/29/2020 04:20 am
SLS is delayed.
JWST is delayed
Nauka (MLM) is delayed.
Virgin Galactic is delayed.


There are a handful of first launches of new commercial space launch companies. Maybe 50% are successful.

Artemis begins to die a slow death.

Someone starts up a new space project that starts with the letters S-T-A-R.  “Starlauncher”? “Starcomm”?

Russia announces a new project that is an obvious copy of some US project.



 


Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Proponent on 12/29/2020 04:52 pm
-The incoming Biden administration's space policy prioritizes climate science over human spaceflight, despite this the Artemis program pulls of the impossible and survives a change of administration.

I too expect Artemis will continue, but why would surviving a change of administration be a case of pulling off the impossible?  Orion and a big Shuttle-derived rocket have been the program for 15 years and have already survived two changes of administration.  It's true that the design of the rocket fluctuated between 2005 and 2010 (10-meter-diameter RS-68-powered core, then RS-25s, then 8.4-meter core; upper-stage musical chairs), but the element of it that was seriously under development in that period was the 5-segment SRB, which is still with us today.

It is also true that the ostensible destination for Orion and the big Shuttle-derived rocket has fluctuated, but, again, that's largely immaterial, because until FY 2020, almost no money was ever spent on anything aside from Orion and the big Shuttle-derived rocket.  By that I mean that Constellation's Altair lander never got beyond the PowerPoint stage and was not under development at the time of Constellation's cancellation.

Little money was ever spent on the in-space hardware that the Obama administration proposed for the Asteroid Redirect and Rendezvous Mission.  Plus, the major piece of such hardware, namely the high-power electric-propulsion module, is part of today's plan.  So is a deep-space hab module, now called the gateway, that was first mooted during the Obama administration.

In short, don't listen to what the politicians say ("We're going to the moon!"  -- "We're going to an asteroid!" --  "We're going to the moon!"), watch what they spend money on (Orion and SLS: destination is not important).

I expect more of the same: enthusiastic funding for Orion and SLS and drips and drabs for landers and gateways.  I can see the gateway actually happening someday, because its pretty cheap and is perfect for space agencies, in that it gives them something to do on a plausible budget.  As for landers, we've just seen that even congresspeople of the president's party aren't very enthusiastic (i.e., even the Senate proposed funding landers well below the requested level).  With the change of administration, I'm sure those same congresspeople will start suddenly recall their deep commitment to fiscal responsibility and will refuse fund Artemis at the level needed to reach the moon even by 2028.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Atlantis83 on 12/29/2020 06:52 pm
My predictions for 2021:

US projects:
- Perseverance will land successful in Jezero Crater, Drone will fly only one because tipping over during landing
- JWST will launch 2021 - but not in October. Another delay will put it in late December
- SLS will not fly 2021. But will launch in 2022.
- New Glenn will not fly in 2021.
- ULA Vulcan will fly for the first time (with Astrobotic Lander - but Lander will reach Moon Orbit but fail with landing - similar to Beresheet)
- 2nd launch will move to 2022 (so Dreamchaser will not fly)
- SpaceX Starship will reach Orbit in late 2021.
- IM-1 with Nova-C Lander will land successful on the moon.
- New Shepard will fly with humans onboard - but not with customer yet
- SpaceShipTwo will fly with Richard Branson and family - but not more commerical flights in 2021.
- Dart and Lucy will be launched successful
- SpaceX will launch more times than 2020 (2x FH)
- Firefly Alpha is a success, also Astra and Virgin Orbit reaches Orbit
- Terran-1 launch by Relativity Space moves to 2022

Chinese projects:
- Tianhe core module will be launched and a Shenzhou and Tianzhou spacecraft will visit the Station
- Tianwen orbiter will arrive on Mars, also the landing will be a success. The rover will drive on Mars - but only some meters.
- Linkspace will launch NewLine-1 but will fail during landing
- Landspace rocket Zhuque-2 will reach Orbit

Russian projects:
- 2 tourists will fly to ISS
- Nauka will be launched in fall 2021
- Prichal will not launched in 2021
- Moon lander Lunar-Glob will fail


I've found a nice overview of spaceflight in 2021 on this page (mentioned already in New Year thread):
https://www.shymkent.info/2020/12/27/spaceflight-2021-what-can-we-expect/ (https://www.shymkent.info/2020/12/27/spaceflight-2021-what-can-we-expect/)
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: woog on 12/30/2020 09:40 am
2021 predictions:
-JWST will fly
- Perseverance landing will be successful, Ingenuity will successfully fly
- SLS will be stacked and go through a large amount of launch prep however will not launch, instead launching in Q1 2022
- New Glenn will slip into 2022
- Vulcan will either fly in late 2021 or the payload has another delay and the launch is pushed into 2022
- SpaceX will experience anomalies with the first few superheavy prototypes however they'll eventually get it working and conduct some hops.
- SpaceX will have more launches than 2020.
- Chinese Space Station core module launches successfully
- Tianwen will arrive on Mars and successfully land
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Starship on 12/30/2020 10:01 am
SN10 first soft landing. Hope it is SN 9. As they say in  Texas, " gitty  up."
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: hkultala on 12/30/2020 11:18 am
NASA:

First launch of SLS is delayed, scheduled for early 2022
Plans to switch Europa clipper to a commercial launcher gaining support.
JWST launches at very late 2021, December or end of November.

SpaceX:

About 60 of Falcon 9 launches. About half has a customer, half are Starlink. All reach orbit successfully, but one landing fail

3 Falcon Heavy launches. 2 Core landing/recovery successes, one fail.

Starship SN9 makes (a) successful hop(s?) and landing(s?) at altitudes less than 20km, but is destroyed in later flight when performing a higher hop. The final flight might be a "suicide mission", just flying it as high as it can get without sparing any fuel for landing.

SuperHeavy makes a successful hop without Starship.

StarShip does reach orbit with SuperHeavy as a booster, but it will not be any of the "final configurations" and we will have at least two of the following three

* Starship not even attempting to land from orbit because that early prototype is not properly equipped for it, Or SpaceX wants to do some publicity stunt to send it towards Venus or Moon, OR towards some outer planet planet with Venus as gravity sling. Or combination of both, early not-re-entry-capable StarShip sent towards Venus as a publicity stunt.
However, they might add few cameras to the vehicle to get some new imaginary about the destination to claim it's not pure publicity stunt but also has some scientific value.

* Starship failing re-entry/landing from orbit

* SuperHeavy failing to fly back/land.

Also, no third-party payloads on Starship yet. Maybe few Starlink satellites during some test launch, but this is also just an experiment.

ULA:

Vulcan launches once, at the very end of the year.

Blue Origin:

New Glenn seen at the pad, but does not launch yet. Planned to be launched at very early 2022.

Europe:

Ariane 6 does not launch and is not seen at the pad.
Vega-C is delayed by few months, but is launched during 2021.
One more Vega failure, and Vega gets zero new commercial contracts.

Russia:

Many successful Soyuz launches, no failures. However, Falcon 9 launches will outnumber Soyuz launches by more than 3:1.

Angara has 2-3 successful launches with actual payload and is generally considered as fully operational launcher.

Another super-heavy powerpoint-rocket released. Still no money to actually develop any of those super-heavy rockets into real world rockets.


others
Haven't been really following China so no predictions about them.

Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: jebbo on 12/31/2020 01:50 pm
110+ orbital launch attempts worldwide.

SpaceX
-   28+ F9/FH launches
-   At least one booster achieves 10+ launches
-   Superheavy does a series of hops (starting in Q2)
-   Starship is launched to orbit (in Q4 but expendable)

Blue Origin
-   First crewed launch of New Shepard
-   First New Glenn hardware arrives at LC36 in Q1
-   New Glenn launch delayed to 2022

ULA
-   First Vulcan flight in Q4

Boeing
-   Starliner is certified for crew operations to the ISS.

ISS
-   Nauka (Russian MLM) will launch in 2021.
-   ISS life extended

Other US
-   Rocket Labs successfully catch a booster
-   LauncherOne achieve orbit

Europe
-   Static fire of Prometheus engine; further commitment to reuse with the Themis / Callisto programme
-   At least 1 European country (EU + UK) makes a developmental suborbital test flight (orbital providers only)

China
-   40+ launches
-   Successful launch of the core Tianhe module
-   More progress on reuse (no successful landing but boost-back/landing burns; legs fitted)


Moon
-   Artemis 1 slips to 2022
-   1st Lunar landing slips to 2026

Science
-    I’m going to be optimistic and say the JWST actually launches in 2021
-    LIGO adds the Japanese Kagra instrument and detects at least 1 NS-NS merger with an EM counterpart
-    LIGO detection every 1 – 2 days

--- Tony
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Kryten on 12/31/2020 04:12 pm
US
No Starship or derivative reaches orbit
No US lunar lander lands successfully
VG flies no more than four times
NS flies no more than four times and does not take paid passengers
Alpha maiden launch fails
OFT-2 faces no major problems
NG flies
Vulcan maiden launch is successful; if there are any more launches they also are not failures

Russia
No complete failures - bit riskier this year with angara

India
Gaganyaan prototype launches
Five or less total orbital launches as they struggle with Covid recovery
Hopper appears, does not fly

China
Tianwen-1 works with no major issues
ZQ-2 reaches orbit
Another private liquid launcher is shown but doesn't fly
Tianhe launch is successful, permanent habitation has begin by the end of the year
At least one big rocket hopper appears
Crewed lunar programme is officially approved

Others
Iran successfully launches an all-(or mostly-) solid SLV
Nuri is pushed to 2022
DPRK makes some noises about rockets as Nuri approaches but no SLV launches

Overall
At least one orbital collision involving a complete sat
115-130 launches
7-10 complete failures (lots of maiden launches again)
China>US [not incl. RL]>Russia launch totals pattern holds (possibly for the last time, with US small launchers ramping up)
At least seven orbital launchers have their maiden flight attempts this year
We get a launch failure with successful booster recovery
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/01/2021 02:46 pm
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1345009165996011520

Quote
Some predictions for 2021:

• James Webb Space Telescope launches, but Vulcan does not

• Starliner performs a nearly flawless test flight

• A Falcon 9 core flies for the 10th time

• China launches space station module

• Texas will see its second orbital launch, ever

twitter.com/astropawankumar/status/1345010949971873792

Quote
Ummmm, Sir what about Virgin Orbit 2nd demo flight, Rocket Lab's Launch to Moon ,. Firefly Alpha maiden launch , Virgin Galactic and Astra 🙂????

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1345011195493953537

Quote
I have a 4,000 word article coming in a few days that has more details, hah. Safe to say we could see as many as five or six small rockets debut in 2021. Fun times!
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: IanThePineapple on 01/01/2021 09:07 pm
A little late but here's my take:

SpaceX (I'll put heavy sums down that I'm way off):

- 2 FH launches, 30 F9
- Crew-2 and Crew-3 go off without a hitch. One of those carries external cargo in the trunk.
- First private mission goes up in H2.

- SN9 nails its landing in mid-Jan, SN10 copies it in early February and succeeds as well.
- SN11 flies to 20km in late Feb or early March
- SN12 breaks the Karman line
- SN13 flies downrange and boosts back
- SN14 copies SN13, maybe gets more daring. First to have RaptorVacs.
- SN15 flies on Super Heavy BN2 in the late Fall, makes it to orbit. Lands successfully at Vandenberg.
- SN16 copies SN15 later in the year.

- BN1 completes two low-altitude tests in the late Spring, missing a lot of flight hardware like grid fins. It's essentially a stretched Starship with a few SH components. Only 4 Raptors.
- BN2 is the first mostly-all-up Super Heavy. Not 28 Raptors yet, but close. BN1 & 2 both use the placeholder landing legs from Starship.
- BN3 is pretty much flight configuration, only difference is in legs. No way they try that "tower catch" by BN3. Either they continue with the placeholder legs or move to something similar to those seen in renders.

NASA/International:

- SLS green run completed with test-firing completed in mid February.
- SLS stacked by year's end. May be rolled to pad very late in the year. Pad WDR scheduled for Q1 2022, with launch in early Q2.
- Europa Clipper moved to Falcon Heavy using MEGA trajectory (Mars-Earth Gravity Assists)
- Starship & Dynetics are selected to continue with HLS.
- 2024 landing pushed to 2026, on Artemis 4. Mostly due to funding concerns.
- Gateway becoming less and less necessary for landings
- ISS continues well, but still faces age issues.

Misc:

- OFT-2 flies in April. CDT flies in late Q3. Both are successful.
- Rocket Lab continues with another successful year. At least 15 flights of Electron, and at least 5 recoveries. Some components refly in the summer, and a stage may be reflown in the late fall.
- Firefly Alpha launches in Q1 and is successful.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: TomH on 01/03/2021 02:09 am
WaPo's preview of 2021 in space. Fluffy and basic with some inaccuracies, but it's whats being presented to their audience:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/12/30/2021-space-events-plan/
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: edkyle99 on 01/03/2021 03:27 am
My prediction is that there are going to be cutbacks, and not just in space.  A nation with nearly World War 2 era debt with no war going on can't justify funding three different crewed spacecraft development efforts, etc.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: moreno7798 on 01/03/2021 07:42 pm
And here we go...

1. Spaceship SN9 does not fly until week 3 in Jan.
2. Boca Chica turns into the new Cape Canaveral.
3. Virgin Galactic has a few more (perhaps manned) test flights but neither Branson nor paying customers go to space in 2021.
4. SpaceX has 0 loss of Starlink satellites due to launch failure or orbit insertion failure.
5. SpaceX recovers 70% of all F9 launch fairings.
6. SpaceX achieves 35 or more successful launches in 2021.
7. FH's main core lands safely.
8. Starlink goes live globally for paying customers in Q3-Q4 2021.
9. Musk unveils Mars ISRU hardware during SpaceX update.
10. Musk gives more details about the pressurized version of the Cybertruck for Mars during his yearly SpaceX update.
11. Year 5 - SLS continues its slow death (more delays, more funding cuts).
12. JWST is NOT delayed.
13. Mars 2020 Rover lands successfully. (Robotic and Deep Space - the one thing that NASA knows how to do well).
14. An alien signal is confirmed to be Aliens.
15. BTC goes to 70-100K.
16. First Human Neuralink device implant.
17. Nobody is wearing a Mask by December.
18. $TSLA @ $300 after second split.
19. Starlink IPO by Q4 2021...or talk of early 2022
20. Blue Origin ends Newshepard.

Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Proponent on 01/03/2021 09:09 pm
WaPo's preview of 2021 in space. Fluffy and basic with some inaccuracies, but it's whats being presented to their audience:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/12/30/2021-space-events-plan/

What are the inaccuracies?
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: TomH on 01/04/2021 12:36 am
What are the inaccuracies?

SLS problems are lain fully on Boeing and NASA with none on congress. That is dead wrong. It is an issue we all know about and there is no need to rehash it.

The article definitively states that when SLS does fly, it will be the most powerful rocket ever. This assumes with certainty that SLS flies before the SS/SH stack and that is a speculative presupposition. It also bases the claim on raw thrust while ignoring inferior payload capacity in contrast with Saturn V.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: agentdrozd on 01/04/2021 12:17 pm
My predictions for 2021:
SpaceX:
- Starship prototype does 100 km flight, although unsuccessful landing
- Super Heavy prototypes do few short hops, at least one blows up
- Falcon booster makes its 10th flight in the first half of the year
- At least one veteran booster dies during landing attempt
- Record reuse time set at less than a month
- Around 30 launches, half of which are Starlinks, no failures
- Crew-2 and Crew-3 launch without problems or major delays
- First Crew Dragon tourist flight (Axiom-1) successfully launches before the end of the year

NASA:
- SLS successfully hotfires in January, is stacked by the end of September, on pad in October
- Artemis I launches in November/December
- Artemis II crew is announced
- Perseverance lands on Mars without problems
- DART and Lucy launch successfully
- First CLPS mission lands on the Moon before the end of the year
- JWST launches successfully
- National Team and SpaceX are picked for HLS, although first landing on the Moon officially slips to at least 2026
- Trident and VERITAS win Discovery 15/16 selection
- Agreements with ESA and JAXA to fly their astros on Artemis missions

Rocket Lab:
- first successful recovery of Electron in the first half of the year
- first commercial flight of Photon
- first launches from pads 2 and 1B
- they reveal another big project

Other US:
- Starliner's OFT-2 goes without problems in Q2, CFT follows in Q4
- Vulcan launches successfully in the Q4
- New Glenn delayed to 2022
- Firefly successfully launches in Q1, enters regular operations in the second half of the year
- Astra reaches orbit in first half of the year
- LauncherOne reaches orbit on third attempt
- Relativity's maiden launch slips to 2022
- at least one notable smallsat launch company dies
- Virgins flies first clients (not counting Branson)
- New Shepard flies humans but tourist flights slip to next year

Europe:
- Ariane 6 doesn't launch
- Vega-C launches in Q4
- all Arianespace launches are successes
- Arianespace begins testing campaign of reusable launcher prototype
- new group of astronauts is picked
- one of European smallsat companies attempts orbital launch of their rocket, although unsuccessfully

China:
- more than 40 orbital launches
- Tianhe station module launches successfully in Q2, followed by cargo and crew flights same year
- Tianwen orbiter is successful, lander crashes
- first private liquid-fueled rocket reaches orbit
- first propulsive landing attempts, although unsuccessful
- we get more info about rumoured Chinese spaceplane
- old-gen launchers are starting to being phased out

India:
- India starts test campaign on reusable rockets
- India launches Chandrayyan-3 which successfully lands on the Moon
- India's crewed spacecraft flight test delayed to 2022

Russia:
- Russians launch tourist to ISS
- Russian plans for lunar architecture change once again, Luna 25 delayed
- Nauka finally launches to ISS

Other:
- Iran attempts at least 2 orbital launches with at least 1 being successful
- South Korea launches their new rocket
- Japanese H3 rocket launches in Q4
- more countries get involved in Artemis Accords
- UAE's Hope mission operates successfully in Martian orbit

Space science:
- more interesting Earth-like exoplanets found
- first exomoon confirmed
- more clues about microbes in Venus atmosphere
- another discovery on Mars suggesting life
- another exciting black hole/gravitational waves announcement

Okay I think that's all...
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: hektor on 01/04/2021 12:29 pm
There is already an agreement in place with ESA to fly their astros on Artemis missions. Three of them.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Proponent on 01/04/2021 02:58 pm
SLS problems are lain fully on Boeing and NASA with none on congress. That is dead wrong. It is an issue we all know about and there is no need to rehash it.

Though I personally think Congress erred in creating SLS in the first place, I don't understand how it is to blame for SLS's subsequent problems.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: TomH on 01/04/2021 11:36 pm
SLS problems are lain fully on Boeing and NASA with none on congress. That is dead wrong. It is an issue we all know about and there is no need to rehash it.

Though I personally think Congress erred in creating SLS in the first place, I don't understand how it is to blame for SLS's subsequent problems.

The archives are full of this discussion in other appropriate places. I do not know of anyone who would agree with you, but this is not the correct thread to rehash this worn out topic.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/05/2021 12:56 pm
[…]

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1345011195493953537

Quote
I have a 4,000 word article coming in a few days that has more details, hah. Safe to say we could see as many as five or six small rockets debut in 2021. Fun times!

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/there-are-an-insane-amount-of-cool-space-things-happening-in-2021/

Quote
There are an insane amount of cool space things happening in 2021
Yeah, we're going to say it. We really think Webb is going to launch this year.

ERIC BERGER - 1/5/2021, 12:10 PM

[…]

As we look ahead to a new year, there is as much, if not more, space goodness to come. I asked readers for suggestions on Twitter about what they're anticipating in the coming year and received more than 400 responses. This list is a distillation of those ideas, plus some of my own, to compile the space goodness we most have to look forward to in 2021. Spoiler alert: There's a lot.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Proponent on 01/07/2021 03:51 pm
[Though I personally think Congress erred in creating SLS in the first place, I don't understand how it is to blame for SLS's subsequent problems.

The archives are full of this discussion in other appropriate places. I do not know of anyone who would agree with you, but this is not the correct thread to rehash this worn out topic.

Please don't tell me I'm wrong without an explanation or an explanatory link.  Otherwise, it's just not a productive conversation, and I can't reasonably comb the voluminous SLS threads to find an answer.  As far as I can tell, since 2011 all Congress has done with SLS is throw lots of money at it.  It may be abdicating its responsibility of oversight, but I don't see how it harms SLS per se.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: edzieba on 01/07/2021 04:22 pm
As far as I can tell, since 2011 all Congress has done with SLS is throw lots of money at it.  It may be abdicating its responsibility of oversight, but I don't see how it harms SLS per se.
Congress directs how money is spent on SLS. They can (and have) directed construction of a pointless second MLP. They can (and have) messed about authorising and deauthorising and reauthorising various upper stage options. They can and have effectively mandated solid rocket boosters regardless of their utility ('effectively' by commanding NASA to produce a booster whose defined properties just happen to match exactly a large solid motor and preclude any other option).
SLS is not a lump sum given to NASA to do what they want with. That might even have had a chance of producing a viable launch system. SLS involves congress dictating how NASA gets to spend that money and what they get to spend it on in exacting detail, and NASA has no choice in the matter.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: darkenfast on 01/07/2021 08:12 pm
Remember though, that Congress didn't invent the SLS. Certain centers of power at NASA (with their own agendas), teamed up with certain big companies (with THEIR own agenda), to design this thing and then went to Congress, where the usual pork games were played (because all members of Congress have their own agendas), and it was made the law.

Many interests aligned to make this happen.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Johnnyhinbos on 01/08/2021 04:11 am
I predict that, in 2021, NASASpaceFlight threads will go off topic...
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 01/08/2021 06:03 am
I predict that, in 2021, NASASpaceFlight threads will go off topic...
In that vein I predict in 2021 that every thread regardless of topic will somehow devolve into a SpaceX discussion.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: the_other_Doug on 01/08/2021 03:04 pm
Russia announces a new project that is an obvious copy of some US project...

What's more, Russia will announce it (whatever it is) as an enormous leap of technology, showcasing the Russian will to accomplish the impossible, and then state that *all* other countries (with some exceptions) are now being offered the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and honor to *pay* Russia to build it.  When no one steps forward to offer to fund what turns out to be a conceptual copy of existing non-Russian space systems, they will complain bitterly that the world does not have the necessary vision to become their partners, and whatever this new project is will die the same death as the Russian lunar and Mars programs of various stripes.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: moreno7798 on 01/09/2021 08:15 pm
And here we go...

1. Spaceship SN9 does not fly until week 3 in Jan.
2. Boca Chica turns into the new Cape Canaveral.
3. Virgin Galactic has a few more (perhaps manned) test flights but neither Branson nor paying customers go to space in 2021.
4. SpaceX has 0 loss of Starlink satellites due to launch failure or orbit insertion failure.
5. SpaceX recovers 70% of all F9 launch fairings.
6. SpaceX achieves 35 or more successful launches in 2021.
7. FH's main core lands safely.
8. Starlink goes live globally for paying customers in Q3-Q4 2021.
9. Musk unveils Mars ISRU hardware during SpaceX update.
10. Musk gives more details about the pressurized version of the Cybertruck for Mars during his yearly SpaceX update.
11. Year 5 - SLS continues its slow death (more delays, more funding cuts).
12. JWST is NOT delayed.
13. Mars 2020 Rover lands successfully. (Robotic and Deep Space - the one thing that NASA knows how to do well).
14. An alien signal is confirmed to be Aliens.
15. BTC goes to 70-100K.
16. First Human Neuralink device implant.
17. Nobody is wearing a Mask by December.
18. $TSLA @ $300 after second split.
19. Starlink IPO by Q4 2021...or talk of early 2022
20. Blue Origin ends Newshepard.


#9.... 1/20 already?


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1347858350717816832?s=20[/size]
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: JacobTheInvestigator on 02/23/2021 01:59 pm
Someone mentioned that Great Britain would make a big step forward. It's true. However, I think we forgot to predict that young space companies will greatly contribute to the development of the British space industry. There is one promising aerospace company UK (https://www.skyrora.com/) citizens should know. It's Skyrora. This company already has 5 vehicles, and I heard it works on new spacecraft concepts. Perhaps, we have to wait for good news for them this year.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Vahe231991 on 06/08/2021 03:53 am
My predictions for 2021.. somewhat rehashed from 2021, which were rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2020:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2031118#msg2031118
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2172520#msg2172520
2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

2021 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 20 (up from 15 last year) flights, I guessed 33 in the poll: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52633.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (same as last year, they didn't)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (same as last year, they made it)
- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered at least one of those times (lost last year, this year I will win. Maybe. Maybe just half. There are two on the manifest.)
- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (same, this is an easy one for 21)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (20 saw FAA opening RFC, this will continue)
- CommsX (what I fondly call Starlink still) constellation will see at least another 600 satellites launched (this is lowball actually)
- Starlink Beta will expand to include at least 5x more surface area but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers)
- At least 1 Starlink satellite will be released by a Starship into orbit by end of year. (this requires them making orbit)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and will be serious tunneling on more than one project at once. Vegas initial boring project completed, operational and work proceeding on route/system expansion. At least one other project will be underway somewhere. There will be new TBMs that are refinements of what did the Vegas work.
- Dragon launched passengers last year, twice. This year there will be more Dragon crew launched than Starliner crew (this requires at least one launch).
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last three years)
- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 75% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 6 fairing halves will be reused successfully. (up from 60% and 4 reused fairing halves)
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration (probably gonna lose this one, did last year)
- There will be no significant name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020 (I've been playing black saying there would be and missing the spin, let's try red)
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc) (repeat. cmon, anything??) by SpaceX
- by some credible third party (Bechtel, Caterpillar... you get the idea)

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2021 (repeat... maybe this year?)
- Boeing will be credibly alleged to have done some skullduggery of some sort. (too easy but I can't help meself)
- NASA will downselect to not include Starship as the oldSpace contractors show their muscle (hoping to be wrong)

- Enough with the detailed ULA picks about IVF/Centaur!!! I give up. This year ULA does nothing to advance either of these. Changed from black to red again.
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)
- ULA will have at least one launch campaign that scrubs 5 or more times before a successful (or otherwise) launch (should have had this one last year, LOL *cough* Delta IV)

- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 2 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (three years ago was >5, then >4, last year >3).
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- Artemis will make progress and the lander downselect won't be to just one lander. (SpaceX in/out (above) doesn't affect this outcome)

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of 2 years ago and last year which was 7/6)
- By year end there will be at least 2 Electron recoveries that were at least partially successful, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (up from one last year, which I won)

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (threepeat of last year... cmon)
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (threepeat of last year...  TBF they did have a launch)
- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (repeat. no customers yet but not mothballed)

- Voyager will announce at least one more surprise acquisition beyond Nanoracks

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).
The Stratolaunch Roc made its second flight last April, becoming the first airplane with a 300+ foot wingspan to fly more than once. Plans are for the Roc to carry the Talon reusable spacecraft.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: scienceguy on 07/02/2021 03:06 pm
-Pandemic slows and halts by mid-2021, thanks to ring vaccination and general vaccination efforts

You got this one right
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Proponent on 07/02/2021 03:34 pm
-Pandemic slows and halts by mid-2021, thanks to ring vaccination and general vaccination efforts

You got this one right

Slows, yes, halts, no.  And in fact the 7-day-average rate of new cases is now starting to increase in the US and skyrocketing in the UK (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases), for example.

Thanks to the vaccines and better treatments, hospitalizations and deaths are unlikely to spike to the levels seen in 2020.  But with so many cases, new variants against which current vaccines are less effective will likely develop.  We're going to be dealing with Covid for a while.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 07/02/2021 10:24 pm
-Pandemic slows and halts by mid-2021, thanks to ring vaccination and general vaccination efforts

You got this one right

Slows, yes, halts, no.  And in fact the 7-day-average rate of new cases is now starting to increase in the US and skyrocketing in the UK (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases), for example.

Thanks to the vaccines and better treatments, hospitalizations and deaths are unlikely to spike to the levels seen in 2020.  But with so many cases, new variants against which current vaccines are less effective will likely develop.  We're going to be dealing with Covid for a while.
From someone who has been dealing with long-haul symptoms since March of last year, do yourself a favor and go get vaccinated.  You don't want to go through what I have been going through.  The day after my first dose of the Moderna vaccine, the symptoms starting getting better.  The second dose helped even more.  We need to finish off this pandemic.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: JohnFornaro on 07/03/2021 01:26 pm
I predict there won't be a lunar landing in 2024.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Vahe231991 on 07/04/2021 02:36 am
My prediction is that 2021 will see over 110 launches, just like in 2018 and 2020.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 07/04/2021 04:43 am
I predict there won't be a lunar landing in 2024.
I predict that this is not a prediction for 2021 even though I agree with you.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: AmigaClone on 07/06/2021 01:21 am
I predict there won't be a lunar landing in 2024.

While this is not a 2021 prediction, I will give my response.

I will agree that it is unlikely that a crewed landing of the Artemis program will occur in 2024. Uncrewed landings from other countries are very likely to occur.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: AmigaClone on 07/06/2021 01:27 am
At just past the halfway mark I will post my predictions for the predictions that have not already been proven one way or another.

Some of the predictions in this thread will occur.
Some predictions in this thread will be just slightly off.
Some of those who have made predictions will be surprised at the result of their prediction.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Vahe231991 on 07/16/2021 01:11 am
With the first orbital launches of the SLS and Starship looming, I predict that the US will be the first country in history to have launched more than one space launch vehicles over 300 feet high.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: scienceguy on 10/08/2021 09:44 pm
Time to evaluate!

Water vapour detected in the atmosphere of an Earth-size exoplanet within 40 light years

Well, this didn't happen. 0 points.

More evidence of a second planet at Proxima Centauri

There was more evidence in 2020, but not 2021. 0 points.

Evidence of an Earth-size planet at Alpha Centauri B

Nope. 0 points.

SpaceX continues its crew transportation to the ISS nominally

Yup. This happened. 1 point.

SpaceX Starship makes it to orbit safely

Nope. 0 points.

SpaceX will launch twice in the same day at least once

Nope. 0 points.

JWST launches without incident and snaps a 1-4 pixel picture of an exoplanet

Hasn't happened yet, but may still. 0.5 point.

NASA Curiosity rover keeps working

This was a gimme. 1 point.

NASA’s InSight Lander stops communicating briefly; issue is quickly resolved

This didn't happen. 0 points.

NASA’s TESS finds more Earth-size planets in the habitable zone

Yes, this happened. 1 point.

Covid-19 will continue to delay launches worldwide

Unfortunately this happened. 1 point.

ISRO will continue work on their reusable shuttle

Yup, this happened. 1 point.

China will have at least 10 successful launches

Yup, this happened. 1 point.

Betelgeuse will go supernova this year as seen from Earth

This would have been something. 1 point just for predicting it.

Well, 7.5/14. Just over 50% seems to be my average at this.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 10/17/2021 04:20 pm
Time to evaluate!
A little early.  Give it another month.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: jebbo on 12/10/2021 07:44 am
I guess it's about time to mark my homework ;)

110+ orbital launch attempts worldwide.

+1 point (1/1). So far at 130. Smashed it ;)

Quote
SpaceX
-   28+ F9/FH launches

+1 point (2/2). Currently 28 with more to come.

Quote
-   At least one booster achieves 10+ launches

+1 point (3/3). Two boosters at 10 launches / landings.

Quote
-   Superheavy does a series of hops (starting in Q2)

0 points (3/4). Nope, and won't *ever* hop.

Quote
-   Starship is launched to orbit (in Q4 but expendable)

0 points (3/5). Nope, probably Q1 2022 and will be expended.

Quote

Blue Origin
-   First crewed launch of New Shepard

+1 points (4/6). Three this year.

Quote
-   First New Glenn hardware arrives at LC36 in Q1

+0.5 points (4.5/7). Pathfinder hardware only and a test tank for Jarvis 2nd stage.

Quote
-   New Glenn launch delayed to 2022

+1 points (5.5/8). And even 2022 looks dodgy.

Quote
ULA
-   First Vulcan flight in Q4

0 points (5.5/9). Nope. Where are Tory's engines Jeff? ;)

Quote
Boeing
-   Starliner is certified for crew operations to the ISS.

0 points (5.5/10). Nope. I thought this would be a slam-dunk but feels unlikely even next year.

Quote
ISS
-   Nauka (Russian MLM) will launch in 2021.

+1 point (6.5/11). Yup, though a bit more exciting than it should have been with those wild ISS excursions ;)

Quote
-   ISS life extended

+1 point (7.5/12). Yup, all participants have agreed to 2030, but not ratified fully yet.

Quote
Other US
-   Rocket Labs successfully catch a booster

+0.5 point (8/13). Have recovered 2 boosters but not yet actually caught one yet (Q1 2022?).

Quote
-   LauncherOne achieve orbit

+1 point (9/14). Yup.

Quote
Europe
-   Static fire of Prometheus engine; further commitment to reuse with the Themis / Callisto programme

+0.5 point (9.5/15). They've tested tanks, and there is definitely more commitment (+ Maia from ArianeSpace).

Quote
-   At least 1 European country (EU + UK) makes a developmental suborbital test flight (orbital providers only)

0 points (9.5/16). Nope. Had expected Miura I but delayed to next year.

Quote
China
-   40+ launches

+1 point (10.5/17). Yes and they might exceed 50.

Quote
-   Successful launch of the core Tianhe module

+1 point (11.5/18). Yes and Tiangong is now crewed (though not permanently).

Quote
-   More progress on reuse (no successful landing but boost-back/landing burns; legs fitted)

0 points (11.5/19). Don't think there has been any but hard to say as reporting much less.

Quote
Moon
-   Artemis 1 slips to 2022

+1 point (12.5/20). Sadly, yes.

Quote
-   1st Lunar landing slips to 2026

+0.5 point (13/21). Sadly slipped to NET 2025.

Quote
Science
-    I’m going to be optimistic and say the JWST actually launches in 2021

+1 point (14/22). Looking good so far, but I might still have to change this.

Quote
-    LIGO adds the Japanese Kagra instrument and detects at least 1 NS-NS merger with an EM counterpart
-    LIGO detection every 1 – 2 days

0 point (14/24). Next observing run isn't until Q4 2022.

Just over half of them ... could do better ;)

--- Tony
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Eric Hedman on 12/13/2021 10:23 pm
Year end Review:

Predictions 2021

Space Tourism
   Space Tourism will finally actually start by the end of this millennium (sarcasm)
      
        Blue Origin  (everything two years later than my predictions for 2019)
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4

        Close Enough (1 for 1)

        Virgin Galactic
                Another delay from test flight that failed
            Richard Branson takes flight in Q3
                First tourist flight in Q4

        Not exactly
        +0.5  (1.5 for 2)

Commercial Crew
        Dragon
                Has a good year with all missions successful
        Pretty much right
        +1.0  (2.5 for 3)

        CST-100
            Unmanned test flight will discover new issues delaying crewed test flight
                Crewed test flight pushed to Q4 2021 and successful

        Problem with valves discovered before flight and delay longer than to Q4
       +0.0  (2.5 for 4)

SLS
        Green run discovers a few issues to clean up
        Stays enough on schedule for 2021 Q4 launch

        Too optimistic on timeline
        +0.0  (2.5 for 5)

Orion
        Artemis 1 flight successful by end of 2021
   Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut)
   Artemis 3 plan changes to mission to Gateway only.  First landing moved to Artemis 6 or 7

        Too optimistic on timeline
        +0.0 (2.5 for 6)

SpaceX
        Falcon 9 perfect record again
      Starlink deployment continues successfully with subscriptions steadily increasing
      Dragon - See above
        Close enough
        +1.0 (3.5 for 7)

        Starship
                Steady development, but slower than expected
         Lunar Starship development slows since NASA didn't get budget request
         Heat shield issues take longer than expected to resolve
         Another prototype before successful landing

        Close enough
        +1.0 (4.5 for 8)

      Super Heavy
         Flies several times, but not with Starship in 2021
        Too optimistic on timeline
        +1.0 (4.5 for 9)

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                Launch pad for New Glenn completed
      First launch pushed to 2022
      Blue works quietly with Lockheed towards Orion flying on New Glenn
      Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable for Moon and beyond
        I don't think the pad is done.
        First launch pushed beyond 2021
        I still think they are looking at Orion on New Glenn
        Some reusable second stage details are coming out and I think it will be refuelable
        +0.5 (5 for 10)

        Blue Moon Lander
                NASA delays planned landing until NET 2026 providng reduced funding.
      Continues fully funding development of Descent Element with internal funds while NG and Lockheed slow down their part due to reduced NASA funding.
        I should have foreseen not enough money for two landers.  At least I was right about delays
        +0.0 (5 for 11)

ULA
        All launches successful
        Vulcan launches by year end
        At least all the launches were successful
        +0.5 (5.5 for 12)

Small Launchers
   Market grows slowly and many smaller players drop out.
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches (prediction will finally happen in 2021)
        Rocket Lab
                One successful first stage helicopter recovery by year's end
        I think Virgin Orbit had two successful launches
        I think the market for this didn't grow very fast this year
        Too optimistic on Rocketlabl
        +0.5 (6 for 13)

Stratolauncher
        Fly carrier aircraft at least five times to test flying characteristics
      Talon development progresses steadily
        I don't think carrier aircraft flew five times
        Talon development is moving forward
        +0.5 (6.5 for 14)

Lunar landers
        National Team and SpaceX survive downselect
        Awards slow development contracts The National Team and SpaceX
   first mission date moves to NET 2026
   NASA tries to build case for bigger HLS budget in 2022
        Half right on awards
        +0.5 (7 for 15)

ISS
        More maintenance issues pop up as station ages.
   Axiom makes steady progress for commercial station to eventually replace ISS
        Close enough
        +1.0 (8 for 16)

Gateway
        PPE/Minimum hab development slows down due to lack of new administration support
   Russia - talks continue but still no agreement to contribute
        Close enough even though talks with Russia probably have petered out
        +1.0 (9 for 17)

Artemis Program
        Target for lunar landing moved back to 2026 which really means 2030 or later.
   Planning for Artemis 3 to 6 become Gateway only missions.
        Landing moved to NET 2025 will still probably be delayed beyond that
        +0.5 (9.5 for 18)

     
Mars
        Development of Nuclear Thermal engine continues slower targeting 2028 in space test
   Mars Ice Mapper program starts
        SpaceX’s plan to send cargo version of Starship gets moved to 2026
        Ice mapper did not start, It is in the request for 2022
        I don't know if Cargo version of Starship targeted for 2026 0r not so not a win.
        +0.0 (6.5 for 19)

NASA Administrator
   People will quickly miss Jim Bridenstine
        I have missed his leadership style.  Nelson isn't as bad as I thought he would be but no inspiring informed public speeches like Bridenstine did
        +1.0 (6.5 for 20)

NASA
   Will not be nearly as high a priority as it was in the last four years.
   No growth in funding over next four years.
   Lunar return priority fades as excuse is that Mars is the real goal sometimes way out in the future.
        Thankfully wrong on this one.  I don't think it is as high a priority as under the last administration but Congress is now onboard.
        +0.0 (# for 21)

Mediocre year for predictions at best for me.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Tobias_Corbett on 12/28/2021 02:06 am
Lets see how I did.

NASA
- Artemis I flies in Q4, Artemis II's crew is named, includes three NASA astronauts (one woman) and one Canadian astronaut.
- Dynetics and SpaceX are down-selected for Artemis HLS
- Congress increases funding for Artemis, although first landing is pushed back to 2028 and a later mission.
- Artemis III is changed to a gateway only flight, Artemis IV becomes an un crewed lander-Orion test flight.
- Europa Clipper is moved to a commercial launch vehicle from SLS.
- Pamela Melroy is sworn in as NASA's 14th Administrator (this one is extremely specific but I still feel confident about it).

Not to great on NASA predictions, landing did get pushed back and SpaceX (minus Dynetics) did get selected, but ultimately I was a bit off on the specifics, and sadly Melroy did not become Administrator (Deputy is good enough I guess). I'll give myself a 3/10 for this one. 

SpaceX
-SN9 hops to 12.5km, destroyed on landing.
-SN10 repeats the 12.5km hops but is able to land without blowing up, before tipping over and being damaged beyond repair.
-Towards the end of the year SN11 becomes the first Starship prototype to complete return from a 12.5km hop in one piece.
-Lunar Starship mockup is completed, Artemis astronauts begin flying down to Texas to start training on the mockup/actively taking part in development.
-BN1 is completed, performs static fire but blows up.
-Crew-2, Crew-3 and AX-1 all fly to the ISS successfully. Crew-4 is penciled for 2022 with the exact launch date depending on Starliner-1.

SN9 and SN10 predictions were (If I do say so myself) pretty much perfect, SN10 exploded instead of tipping over but I'm still going to give myself that one. I was off on SN11 and the Lunar Starship mockup but I am pretty sure some Astros made their way down to Texas. BN1 also didn't happen, but I guess you could consider being mothballed a form of blowing up. Ax-1 got delayed but all my Commercial Crew Dragon predictions were pretty much on the money so I still feel pretty good about that one. Over all I give myself a 7/10 for SpaceX related predictions.

CNSA
-Tianhe 1 launches in Q1.
-Shenzhou 12 carries three Chinese taikonauts to the station in Q2, followed by Shenzhou 13 in Q4.
-The landing site for Chang'e 6 is selected and is set to launch on the first ever sample return mission to the far side of the Moon in 2025.

Overall not to bad, Tianhe 1, Shenzhou 12 and 13 both flew but as far as I know there was no landing site selection for Chang'e 6. I think an 8/10 fits for this one.

RocketLab
-First successful launches from LC-2 and LC-1B are carried out.
-A booster is successfully recovered.

I guess you could consider them fishing a booster out of the Hawke's Bay as a recovery, but I kind of expected a successful helicopter recovery, so 0/10 for me on this one.

Boeing
-Boe-OFT2 flies in Q2, followed by CFT in Q4.
-Starliner-1 is scheduled for 2022, a JAXA astronaut is added to the crew.

No and No. Starliner-1 is still ages away but Koichi Wakata was briefly assigned before he was reassigned to Crew-5, so based on that I'm still going to give myself a 1/10.

NSF
-NASASpaceflight.com's youngest writer, Tobias Corbett, finally manages to write an article free of a single typo.

No comment...

Space Politics
-The incoming Biden administration's space policy prioritizes climate science over human spaceflight, despite this the Artemis program pulls of the impossible and survives a change of administration.

I guess, haven't paid enough attention to Biden's Administrations Space Policy in order to comment on this so I'll give myself a 5/10.

Well, in my made up system of ranking myself I got a 12/35. So... not great, wish me luck for next year's predictions because I'm going to need it.
Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Lar on 12/29/2021 06:28 pm
My predictions for 2021.. somewhat rehashed from 2021, which were rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2020:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2031118#msg2031118
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2172520#msg2172520
2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676


How'd I do? Let's see

2021 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 20 (up from 15 last year) flights, I guessed 33 in the poll: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52633.0 )
Yep. 1/1

- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (same as last year, they didn't)
Yep. 2/2

- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (same as last year, they made it)
Yep. 3/3

- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered at least one of those times (lost last year, this year I will win. Maybe. Maybe just half. There are two on the manifest.)
Nope! Not even once. 0 points so 3/4

- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (same, this is an easy one for 21)
Nope! 10KM is not the Karman line  3/5

- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (20 saw FAA opening RFC, this will continue)
sort of? The environmental assessment is progressing.   3.5/6

- CommsX (what I fondly call Starlink still) constellation will see at least another 600 satellites launched (this is lowball actually)
Easy!  4.5/7  see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_launches

- Starlink Beta will expand to include at least 5x more surface area but at end of year will "still be in beta" (Elon likes long betas, so this is two half pointers)
Yes, but why did I talk about surface area???  5.5/8

- At least 1 Starlink satellite will be released by a Starship into orbit by end of year. (this requires them making orbit)
Nope!  5.5/9

- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and will be serious tunneling on more than one project at once. Vegas initial boring project completed, operational and work proceeding on route/system expansion. At least one other project will be underway somewhere. There will be new TBMs that are refinements of what did the Vegas work. 
TBC got Ft Lauderdale. Is that "major"???  Vegas is operational but I don't think any other project is boring yet. .5 at best... 6/10

- Dragon launched passengers last year, twice. This year there will be more Dragon crew launched than Starliner crew (this requires at least one launch).
Easy! 7/11

- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last three years)
Sadly no 7/12

- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 75% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 6 fairing halves will be reused successfully. (up from 60% and 4 reused fairing halves)
Yep 8/13  see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Fairing_reuse
 but stats on this are harder to find than stage stats

- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration (probably gonna lose this one, did last year)
Chopstick legless landing is back. Also the Lunar Lander is a config change, I am going to award myself a point... 9/14

- There will be no significant name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020 (I've been playing black saying there would be and missing the spin, let's try red)
none  10/15  (I'm not counting "stage 0")

- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc) (repeat. cmon, anything??) by SpaceX
de nada... 10/16

- by some credible third party (Bechtel, Caterpillar... you get the idea)
two whiffs 10/17

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2021 (repeat... maybe this year?)
nope! 10/18

- Boeing will be credibly alleged to have done some skullduggery of some sort. (too easy but I can't help meself)
737s...   11/19

- NASA will downselect to not include Starship as the oldSpace contractors show their muscle (hoping to be wrong)
Surprise!!!! NASA picked Starship for the lander so that counts as a fail  11/20

- Enough with the detailed ULA picks about IVF/Centaur!!! I give up. This year ULA does nothing to advance either of these. Changed from black to red again. 
12/21

- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)
13/22

- ULA will have at least one launch campaign that scrubs 5 or more times before a successful (or otherwise) launch (should have had this one last year, LOL *cough* Delta IV)
I think they did? 14/23 but may be wrong

- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 2 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (three years ago was >5, then >4, last year >3).
Whoops, they did launch more than 2 times. At least one was uncrewed but they did not announce cessation... call it 0  14/24  see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard#New_Shepard_4

- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
Stage 1 pathfinder seen outside factory  15/25

- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
lawsuit comments. 16/26

- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)
17/27 - so obvs... should cut this but I need the gimme!!

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
18/28 - so obvs... should cut this but I need the gimme!!

- Artemis will make progress and the lander downselect won't be to just one lander. (SpaceX in/out (above) doesn't affect this outcome)
progress yes. Lander downselect no, it was to just one.   .5   18.5/29

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of 2 years ago and last year which was 7/6)
6 launches 5 successes.. 0 points.   18.5/30  see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Electron_launches#Launch_outcomes

- By year end there will be at least 2 Electron recoveries that were at least partially successful, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (up from one last year, which I won)
2 ocean recoveries 19.5/31

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (threepeat of last year... cmon)
yes.. I am going to count Branson as "paying"  20.5/32  see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic#SpaceShipTwo

- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (threepeat of last year...  TBF they did have a launch)
yes 21.5/33  see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LauncherOne#Flights

- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed (repeat. no customers yet but not mothballed) no customers, not mothballed... .5  22/34  see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_Stratolaunch

- Voyager will announce at least one more surprise acquisition beyond Nanoracks
X.O is the parent of Nanoracks and I tink that's the last one. 22/35

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).
Close... is a crash landing a landing?  .5   22.5/36

Better than last year's 16/36 but not that great


Title: Re: Predictions 2021
Post by: Kryten on 01/04/2022 01:48 pm
 A little late, but at least it's done now.
US
No Starship or derivative reaches orbit Yep
No US lunar lander lands successfully Yep
VG flies no more than four times Yep
NS flies no more than four times and does not take paid passengers Nope
Alpha maiden launch fails Yep
OFT-2 faces no major problems Nope
NG flies Nope
Vulcan maiden launch is successful; if there are any more launches they also are not failures Nope

Russia
No complete failures - bit riskier this year with Angara - this one is arguable with the Angara, but it'll be generous and say Yep

India
Gaganyaan prototype launches Nope
Five or less total orbital launches as they struggle with Covid recovery Yep - two!
Hopper appears, does not fly Nope

China
Tianwen-1 works with no major issues Yep
ZQ-2 reaches orbit Nope
Another private liquid launcher is shown but doesn't fly Nope
Tianhe launch is successful, permanent habitation has begin by the end of the year Yep
At least one big rocket hopper appears Nope
Crewed lunar programme is officially approved Yep

Others
Iran successfully launches an all-(or mostly-) solid SLV Nope
Nuri is pushed to 2022 Nope
DPRK makes some noises about rockets as Nuri approaches but no SLV launches Yep

Overall
At least one orbital collision involving a complete sat Yep - I thought i'd lost this one, but it was just confirmed for Yunhai 1-02
115-130 launches Nope
7-10 complete failures (lots of maiden launches again) Yep
China>US [not incl. RL]>Russia launch totals pattern holds (possibly for the last time, with US small launchers ramping up) Yep
At least seven orbital launchers have their maiden flight attempts this year Nope
We get a launch failure with successful booster recovery Yep - I was expecting SpaceX, but RL got this one in for me.
52% right. I was trying hard to hit a balance that wasn't too pessimistic or optimistic, and I think I got it. Next time I need to find a balance between incorrect and correct...