Author Topic: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites  (Read 22317 times)

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #20 on: 02/17/2014 05:30 pm »
Considering how many amateur's watch the KH-11's, especially one's expected to de-orbit soon.
Then we assume they follow the same protocol that they used for the KH-9's and dump them in the south pacific.

I wonder if you can narrow down those dates to within a couple of orbits.

Of course that would be a good question to ask Ted Molzcan.

Have they ever issued a NOTAMS when de-orbiting one?
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Offline Hog

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #21 on: 02/17/2014 06:07 pm »
Quote
As for the KH-11 decay dates, they come from the amateur observers and represent the dates after which the satellites
were not seen again. It is JUST possible that NRO decided to move the satellites to a different orbit to confuse the amateurs, but these hobbyists are pretty good and I would be surprised if such big sats had not been seen again in the intervening
years, whatever orbit the satellites went to.  So I tend to think those dates are good to within plus or minus a week.
I wonder how quickly a change of orbit would take, from initiation to completion?
NROL-66/USA-225 has an orbital period of 1:40-2:00 hours (I cant find the exact time to complete a single orbit.)
Within a single orbit?  I am assuming their would activation of propulsion to change the satellites direction, then once in the desired orbit, a subsequent "burn" to retain the satellite in the new orbit?
« Last Edit: 02/18/2014 04:31 pm by input~2 »
Paul

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Reentry of Cosmos-1220
« Reply #22 on: 02/17/2014 06:25 pm »
Cosmos-1220 (US-P) should have reenter yesterday. (edit from Mod: yes it did!)

http://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/cosmic/news/more.htm?id=11901143@egNews

Quote
Войска ВКО контролируют схождение с орбиты космического аппарата «Космос-1220»

Специалисты Главного центра разведки космической обстановки (ГЦ РКО) Космического командования Войск воздушно-космической обороны (ВКО) осуществляют непрерывный мониторинг изменений параметров орбиты фрагментов космического аппарата «Космос-1220».

По состоянию на 7 февраля 2014 года объект находится на околоземной орбите с параметрами: период обращения - 89 минут, наклонение — 65 градусов, высота апогея — 275 км, высота перигея — 263 км.

В Центр разведки космической обстановки регулярно поступает полная и достоверная информация от специализированных радиотехнических, оптико-электронных, лазерно-оптических средств российской системы контроля космического пространства (ККП), анализ которой позволяет сделать предварительный прогноз предполагаемой даты падения фрагментов КА «Космос-1220», не сгоревших в плотных слоях атмосферы. По состоянию на 7 февраля 2014 г., падение фрагментов КА «Космос-1220» ожидается 16 февраля 2014 г. Окончательное время и место падения фрагментов космического аппарата КА «Космос-1220» могут изменяться под воздействием внешних факторов.

Специалисты Главного Центра РКО осуществляют повитковый контроль и анализ состояния КА «Космос-1220». Информация об изменениях параметров орбиты объекта предоставляется установленным порядком всем заинтересованным потребителям.

Советский космический аппарат «Космос-1220» был запущен в 1980 году с космодрома Байконур с помощью ракеты-носителя «Циклон-2». Срок активного существования космического аппарата на орбите завершился в 1982 году.

Главный центр разведки космической обстановки выполняет информационное обеспечение решения задач парирования угроз, исходящих из космоса и в космосе, беспрепятственного развертывания и функционирования отечественных группировок космических аппаратов, а так же оценки других опасностей, связанных с техногенным засорением космического пространства.

Одной из основных задач центра является ведение Главного каталога космических объектов, предназначенного для долговременного хранения орбитальной измерительной радиолокационной, оптической, радиотехнической и специальной информации о космических объектах искусственного происхождения на высотах от 120 до 40 тысяч километров.
« Last Edit: 02/18/2014 04:34 pm by input~2 »
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #23 on: 02/17/2014 06:38 pm »
Look at some of the traffic for recovering satellites on http://www.satobs.org/seesat/

You'll notice:

1. Orbit changes are typically is picked up within a few days as a no show
2 A search begins
3. Within a few days it is recovered
4. Then the new orbit is determined
5. Then they back calculate to where the orbital change occurred. They are usually single burn changes.

I think and others can correct me, but usually the KH-11 orbit's are lowered or raised, then allowed to drift (precess at a different rate) to the desired orbit, then brought back to the desired orbit apogee/perigee so it stay's stable in the orbital plane.

Edit: Look at this recent exchange concerning USA-129
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2014/0009.html
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2014/0012.html
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2014/0016.html
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2014/0028.html
« Last Edit: 02/17/2014 06:45 pm by kevin-rf »
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Offline Satori

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Re: Reentry of Cosmos-1220
« Reply #24 on: 02/17/2014 06:39 pm »



Offline Targeteer

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #25 on: 02/17/2014 07:04 pm »


I think and others can correct me, but usually the KH-11 orbit's are lowered or raised, then allowed to drift (precess at a different rate) to the desired orbit, then brought back to the desired orbit apogee/perigee so it stay's stable in the orbital plane.


I've seen the same thing although USA-186 did an inclination change (decrease) first to initiate it's drift to it's new position yet maintain a sun-synchronous orbit if/when it assumes the predicted new lower orbit similar to USA-161.
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline jcm

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #26 on: 02/18/2014 05:44 am »
Depending on availability of observers, lighting conditions in the relevant part of the orbit,  unwelcome weather conditions preventing observing, etc., you might be unlucky and only know to a few weeks or so when it was/wasn't there.
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Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #27 on: 02/18/2014 05:08 pm »
http://www.youtube....
http://www.youtube....
AFAIU, the video legends in Arabic read :
"At 4:21 am [ie 01:21 UTC] a meteor passed NW of Medina"
(that would be 20 minutes before the USSTRATCOM reported time of reentry over northern Saudi Arabia, then Cosmos-1220 was over Ontario! ??? could be a misprint for 4:41 am)
and
"The first picture taken of the Russian satellite burning in the sky over Ha'il [Region NE of Medina]
« Last Edit: 02/19/2014 11:25 am by input~2 »

Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #28 on: 02/19/2014 09:27 am »
Another press article on the fall of Cosmos-1220 (in Arabic)
http://sabq.org/Y5Rfde

Offline VDD1991

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #29 on: 03/04/2014 09:24 pm »
As you are no doubt aware, the Cosmos satellite Cosmos 1400 is expected to decay this coming summer (see http://www.satview.org/lista_sat.php?cat=tle_decay). Now the question is whether or not the recently launched Japanese satellite STARS-2 (Space Tethered Autonomous Robotic Satellite-2) will ever be able to drastically cut down the number of defunct Cosmos satellites in orbit (e.g. Cosmos 2251, Cosmos 1500, Cosmos 1536) by capturing them with the net and slowing down their orbital velocity so that those Cosmos satellites can reenter over the breadth of the Pacific Ocean.

Offline Skyrocket

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #30 on: 03/04/2014 10:21 pm »
As you are no doubt aware, the Cosmos satellite Cosmos 1400 is expected to decay this coming summer (see http://www.satview.org/lista_sat.php?cat=tle_decay). Now the question is whether or not the recently launched Japanese satellite STARS-2 (Space Tethered Autonomous Robotic Satellite-2) will ever be able to drastically cut down the number of defunct Cosmos satellites in orbit (e.g. Cosmos 2251, Cosmos 1500, Cosmos 1536) by capturing them with the net and slowing down their orbital velocity so that those Cosmos satellites can reenter over the breadth of the Pacific Ocean.

STARS-2 is in no way able to capture any satellite and it is not the purpose of STARS-2. It is just a tether experiment.

Offline satwatcher

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #31 on: 03/07/2014 10:47 am »
I think and others can correct me, but usually the KH-11 orbit's are lowered or raised, then allowed to drift (precess at a different rate) to the desired orbit, then brought back to the desired orbit apogee/perigee so it stay's stable in the orbital plane.

The majority of the maneuvers are to move perigee and apogee to counter drag. Changes to the orbital plane are rare and typically only occur if the satellite becomes the secondary in its plane (USA 161 being replaced by USA 224, USA 186 by USA 245).

The satellites in the Eastern plane (USA 161 and USA 224) transit at local midnight while those in the Western plane transit around 9pm. Hence, the visibility of the satellites in the Eastern plane is worse and USA 161 and USA 224 are typically not visible from the Northern hemisphere from September to April.

Offline VDD1991

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #32 on: 08/03/2014 04:35 am »
Cosmos 903 and Cosmos 1151 are expected to reenter the atmosphere this week (http://www.satflare.com/track.asp#TOP; http://en.itar-tass.com/non-political/743290). Along with Cosmos 1400, these two satellites will bring the number of decayed Cosmos satellites this year to five.

Offline Skyrocket

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #33 on: 08/03/2014 09:27 am »
Cosmos 903 and Cosmos 1151 are expected to reenter the atmosphere this week (http://www.satflare.com/track.asp#TOP; http://en.itar-tass.com/non-political/743290). Along with Cosmos 1400, these two satellites will bring the number of decayed Cosmos satellites this year to five.

For those interested, what these Cosmos satellites are:

Cosmos 903 is a US-K type early waring satellite: http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/us-k.htm
Cosmos 1151 is the 2nd Okean-E ocean obervation satellite: http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/okean-e.htm
« Last Edit: 08/03/2014 09:27 am by Skyrocket »

Offline Hog

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #34 on: 08/03/2014 03:47 pm »
Are these satellites any of the early warning types that were involved in the 1983 "False Alarm" incident where 5 US ICMBs were reportedly launched at the USSR?

EDIT: This what I am referring to.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident
« Last Edit: 08/03/2014 03:48 pm by Hog »
Paul

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #35 on: 08/03/2014 04:28 pm »
Are these satellites any of the early warning types that were involved in the 1983 "False Alarm" incident where 5 US ICMBs were reportedly launched at the USSR?
EDIT: This what I am referring to.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident

Cosmos 903 was of this type of satellite, but it was long-dead in 1983.
« Last Edit: 08/03/2014 04:29 pm by Phillip Clark »
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Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #37 on: 08/31/2014 03:44 pm »
Re-entry prediction for Cosmos 1400.

http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/upcoming-reentries-2014/1982-079a/

Cosmos 1400 does not appear in the list of upcoming reentry. Deleted ?
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Offline Star One

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #38 on: 08/31/2014 06:37 pm »

Re-entry prediction for Cosmos 1400.

http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/upcoming-reentries-2014/1982-079a/

Cosmos 1400 does not appear in the list of upcoming reentry. Deleted ?

You're quite correct the only one appearing now in their upcoming list is Yaogan 5 but it was there previously.

Offline AnalogMan

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #39 on: 08/31/2014 07:18 pm »

Re-entry prediction for Cosmos 1400.

http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/upcoming-reentries-2014/1982-079a/

Cosmos 1400 does not appear in the list of upcoming reentry. Deleted ?

You're quite correct the only one appearing now in their upcoming list is Yaogan 5 but it was there previously.
"This is Google's cache of http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/upcoming-reentries-2014/1982-079a/. It is a snapshot of the page as it appeared on 29 Aug 2014 20:58:42 GMT"
« Last Edit: 08/31/2014 07:23 pm by AnalogMan »

Tags: Cosmos 1939 
 

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