Author Topic: Soyuz-2-1B launch with Kosmos (Persona) satellite - June 7, 2013  (Read 52897 times)

Offline anik

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As per http://www.zenite.nu/orbita/index.php?catid=4, the launch of Soyuz-2-1B rocket with Kosmos (Persona) satellite from the launch pad 43/4 is planned in February 2013.
« Last Edit: 05/23/2013 01:59 pm by anik »

Offline anik

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As per http://www.zenite.nu/orbita/index.php?catid=4, the launch is planned on March 30th.

Offline anik

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As per Rui Barbosa (aka Satori), the launch is planned on April 16th.

http://www.zenite.nu/orbita/index.php?catid=4

Offline anik

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According to Rui Barbosa, the launch is planned on May 22nd.

Offline anik

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As per Novosti kosmonavtiki forum, the launch is planned on June 7th.

Offline a_langwich

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As per Novosti kosmonavtiki forum, the launch is planned on June 7th.

What is responsible for the delays?  Spacecraft, LV, launch site?

Offline anik

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What is responsible for the delays? Spacecraft, LV, launch site?

Spacecraft.

Offline anik

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As per Novosti kosmonavtiki forum, the launch is planned at 18:37 UTC.

Offline anik

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According to http://ria.ru/science/20130530/940431768.html, the launch is planned on June 8th.

Offline ostangen

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A1777/13 - FOLLOWING RCVD FM MAIN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT CENTER OF RUSSIA AT 1305290359: PLANS TO LAUNCH MISSILE IN THE PERIOD FROM 1830 TO 1930 ON JUNE 07, ALTN DATE JUNE 08 FROM 1830 TO 1930 AND TO SINK ITS FRAGMENTS IN THE WATERS OF THE BARENTS SEA. IMPACT AREA 1: 7056.0N03204.58E, 7008.0N03204.58E, 7015.0N03150.0E, 7030.0N03136.0E, 7056.0N03204.58E. IMPACT AREA 2: 7630.0N02200.0E, 7520.0N02440.0E, 7450.0N02140.0E, 7550.0N01840.0E, 7630.0N02200.0E. GND - UNL, 07 JUN 18:30 2013 UNTIL 08 JUN 19:30 2013. CREATED: 30 MAY 18:30 2013

Offline owais.usmani

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Will this be using a Fregat-M upper stage?

Offline anik

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Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Will this be using a Fregat-M upper stage?

No: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.msg1055796#msg1055796

No, because Persona will be put in low Earth orbit, so it doesn't need an upper stage.
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Offline owais.usmani

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ok.

But what are the chances that this one will not be failed like the first one did. I mean what modifications they have done?

Offline input~2

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NOTAMs for first stage, fairing and second stage debris (including A1777/13 above)
Quote
V3140/13 -  ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLOSED: B488 KROTA - LIMUS, B815 EVMUV - LIMUS, B816 ATKUP - LIMUS, G476 AKATI - KROTA. SFC - UNL, DAILY 1830-1930, 07 JUN 18:30 2013 UNTIL 08 JUN 19:30 2013. CREATED: 03 JUN 16:40 2013
Quote
V3139/13 -  ATS RTE A222 SEGMENT KUMEL - SOTIS CLSD. SFC - UNL, DAILY 1830-1930, 07 JUN 18:30 2013 UNTIL 08 JUN 19:30 2013. CREATED: 03 JUN 16:39 2013
Quote
V3138/13 -  TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WITHIN COORD: 7056N 03204E-7010N 03340E-6954N 03240E- 7008N 03204E-7056N 03204E. SFC - UNL, DAILY 1830-1930, 07 JUN 18:30 2013 UNTIL 08 JUN 19:30 2013. CREATED: 03 JUN 16:38 2013
« Last Edit: 06/04/2013 12:47 pm by input~2 »

Offline ostangen

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V3149/13 - TEMPO RESTRICTED AREAS FOR ACFT FLT ACT WI COORD: 1. 631600N 0412300E-625200N 0420200E-624000N 0412200E- 622900N 0402500E-624000N 0394200E-624800N 0393200E- 625700N 0401800E-631600N 0412300E. 2. 661000N 0371000E-660000N 03820E-653000N 0383000E- 653000N 0373000E-661000N 0371000E. SFC - FL050, 07 JUN 18:30 2013 UNTIL 08 JUN 19:30 2013. CREATED: 04 JUN 09:11 2013

Offline Star One

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ok.

But what are the chances that this one will not be failed like the first one did. I mean what modifications they have done?

They will not say will they, do the NRO discuss alterations to their active satellites?

Offline Artyom.

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Soyuz-2-1B rocket was transported to the launch pad today.

http://ria.ru/science/20130605/941486076.html (on Russian)

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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I was told that launch is planned at 18h37'59" GMT on 7th June.
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Offline beidou

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Will there be a live broadcast of this launch?

Offline anik

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No, as always.

Offline Star One

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No, as always.

What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

Offline Phillip Clark

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No, as always.
What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

Why should the Russians broadcast the launch of a photoreconnaissance satellite "live".   In the West we seem to have the idea that every launch should be broadcast live, but there is now law that such a thing should happen.

I am still staggered at the openness of the Russian (and Chinese) programmes these days.
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No, as always.

What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

Usually MoD press releases and TV news reports post-launch with reporters reporting from the launch site.  :)

Note that this one don't have an upper stage so that spysat should be in orbit within 10 minutes of being launched.
« Last Edit: 06/07/2013 05:20 pm by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Offline anik

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What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

News in media and videos on TV channels after launch.

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Some views of this launcher in MIK-317/14-3 at the end of this video :

http://www.vesti.ru/videos?vid=512842
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Online Satori

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Some views of this launcher in MIK-317/14-3 at the end of this video :

http://www.vesti.ru/videos?vid=512842

Thank you! I was looking for these footage!

Offline Chris Bergin

I'll be writing up a short one, as we've got that nice overview of the LV and I can probably put about three paras together on the spy sat.
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Offline beidou

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No, as always.
What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

Why should the Russians broadcast the launch of a photoreconnaissance satellite "live".   In the West we seem to have the idea that every launch should be broadcast live, but there is now law that such a thing should happen.

I am still staggered at the openness of the Russian (and Chinese) programmes these days.

I think the openness is even very limited in the West - remember the live broadcast of (U.S.) NRO missions were generally cut off after 10 mins of ignition.

Offline Artyom.

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According to http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20130607/942190724.html the launch occured as planned.

Offline Chris Bergin

« Last Edit: 06/07/2013 06:53 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline Artyom.

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« Last Edit: 06/07/2013 07:09 pm by Artyom. »

Offline input~2

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S/C Separation confirmed in the press
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20130607/942193048.html
launch time was 1837UTC

Offline anik

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Some statistics:
3104th launch of space launch vehicle from Russian cosmodromes
1588th launch of space launch vehicle from Plesetsk cosmodrome
274th launch of space launch vehicle from launch pad No. 4
11th launch of Soyuz-2-1B/ST-B space launch vehicle

Offline Chris Bergin

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Offline jcm

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I note none of the news stories give a Kosmos name - presumably this will be designated Kosmos-2486 eventually
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This was 14A14-1B Soyuz-2-1B (215).
« Last Edit: 06/07/2013 08:42 pm by Satori »

Offline Stan Black

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« Last Edit: 06/29/2013 12:34 pm by Stan Black »

Offline jcm

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2013-028A 39177 cataloged, in 186 x 683 km x 98.3 deg, 1030 local time sun-synchronous orbit.
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Offline Star One

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What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

News in media and videos on TV channels after launch.

Thanks.

The Soyuz looked to be sporting a particularly large fairing on this launch, is it a new model of fairing for the Soyuz-2-1B?

Quote
The Interfax news agency the quoted the same official as saying that the Titov Chief Test center was in control of the satellite officially designated Kosmos-2486 and the spacecraft maintained telemetry communications with the ground and all onboard systems were functioning normally.

Quoted for the Kosmos designation.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/persona.html
« Last Edit: 06/07/2013 10:45 pm by Star One »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Originally it had been reported that the Persona design was based upon the Yantar propulsion/service module with an optical system based upon that flown on the two ARKON missions.   The reconstruction by Anatoly Zak indicates that this is incorrect (http://www.russianspaceweb.com/persona.html).

Photographs taken of Cosmos 2441 in its parking orbit seemed to suggest an appearance rather like the Hubble Space Telescope for the arrangement of solar panels, but this is contradicted by Zak's reconstruction.   Maybe someone will be taking some public-domain "happy snaps" of Cosmos 2486 before it manoeuvres to its high orbit to clarify this.

A question which has always puzzled me is whether the design bureau programme name (like Yantar-4K2M) was Persona or whether the Ministry codename (like Kolbalt-M) was Persona.   Can anyone give a definitive answer to this?   Since Persona is used without an attached numerical designator, it would appear to be the Ministry name rather than the design bureau name - in which case what is the design bureau name?

Of course the system of assigning the different design bureau and ministry names might have changed over the years!
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Offline jcm

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Originally it had been reported that the Perso
A question which has always puzzled me is whether the design bureau programme name (like Yantar-4K2M) was Persona or whether the Ministry codename (like Kolbalt-M) was Persona.   Can anyone give a definitive answer to this?   Since Persona is used without an attached numerical designator, it would appear to be the Ministry name rather than the design bureau name - in which case what is the design bureau name?

Of course the system of assigning the different design bureau and ministry names might have changed over the years!

My understanding was that only the design bureau name was used until the satellite type was 'adopted into armaments' - but maybe I've misunderstood the system.
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Launch news report: http://www.vesti.ru/videos?vid=513716

Russian news reports said that this new satellite costs 10 billion rubles - about $310 million. Still a bargain comparing to those NRO Big Birds TM;)
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Offline Targeteer

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Launch news report: http://www.vesti.ru/videos?vid=513716

Russian news reports said that this new satellite costs 10 billion rubles - about $310 million. Still a bargain comparing to those NRO Big Birds TM;)

Those NRO birds are reportedly 2-3 times heavier, probably have capabilities this can't approach, have lasted over 10 years (USA-129 is approaching 17 years on orbit), and actually WORK in orbit  ;)
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Offline input~2

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2013-028A 39177 cataloged, in 186 x 683 km x 98.3 deg, 1030 local time sun-synchronous orbit.
Object B observed in 187 x 703 km x 98.31°, LTDN: 10:31am

Offline Stan Black

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What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

News in media and videos on TV channels after launch.

Thanks.

The Soyuz looked to be sporting a particularly large fairing on this launch, is it a new model of fairing for the Soyuz-2-1B?

Quote
The Interfax news agency the quoted the same official as saying that the Titov Chief Test center was in control of the satellite officially designated Kosmos-2486 and the spacecraft maintained telemetry communications with the ground and all onboard systems were functioning normally.

Quoted for the Kosmos designation.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/persona.html

 The previous Persona was encapsulated in a 14С738 fairing, whereas all Fregat launches have been 81КС. The question is, are they the same; different designation for the same thing, or is one for Fregat and does not include the transfer compartment?
 In the 81КС only numbers #005 and #006 have not flown, but are those for Soyuz-ST-A rockets #003 and Б15000-004?
 Both upcomming Resurs-P №2 and Progress M-UM are to use the 81КС.

Offline input~2

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Next Persona to be launched either in 2013 or early 2014
(source)

Offline Lewis007

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I note none of the news stories give a Kosmos name - presumably this will be designated Kosmos-2486 eventually

Kosmos-2486 name confirmed by Vesti and ITAR-Tass:
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=1092549&cid=7
http://www.itar-tass.com/c1/764788.html

Video of the launch here:
http://www.vesti.ru/videos?vid=513716&cid=1

Offline Star One

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What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

News in media and videos on TV channels after launch.

Thanks.

The Soyuz looked to be sporting a particularly large fairing on this launch, is it a new model of fairing for the Soyuz-2-1B?

Quote
The Interfax news agency the quoted the same official as saying that the Titov Chief Test center was in control of the satellite officially designated Kosmos-2486 and the spacecraft maintained telemetry communications with the ground and all onboard systems were functioning normally.

Quoted for the Kosmos designation.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/persona.html

 The previous Persona was encapsulated in a 14С738 fairing, whereas all Fregat launches have been 81КС. The question is, are they the same; different designation for the same thing, or is one for Fregat and does not include the transfer compartment?
 In the 81КС only numbers #005 and #006 have not flown, but are those for Soyuz-ST-A rockets #003 and Б15000-004?
 Both upcomming Resurs-P №2 and Progress M-UM are to use the 81КС.

Thanks for that info.

I have noted that SeeSat are reporting sightings of two objects associated with this launch.

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An even better news report about the launch (how on earth did that reporter got the clearance to get right next to that secret machine and its fairing while the rocket is on the pad!?  :o): http://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201306081304-mfez.htm
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Offline Star One

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An even better news report about the launch (how on earth did that reporter got the clearance to get right next to that secret machine and its fairing while the rocket is on the pad!?  :o): http://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201306081304-mfez.htm

Just a shame I don't speak Russian, but interesting pictures, cannot imagine a US reporter being allowed to stand so close to an NRO payload.:)

Offline input~2

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Last frame from that Zvezda video report
« Last Edit: 06/08/2013 01:26 pm by input~2 »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Last frame from that Zvezda video report

I noticed it just captured the Korolyov Cross.
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Offline input~2

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2013-028A 39177 cataloged, in 186 x 683 km x 98.3 deg, 1030 local time sun-synchronous orbit.
Object B observed in 187 x 703 km x 98.31°, LTDN: 10:31am
Confirming that Object B was the spacecraft, its orbit has now been circularized to 697 x 729 km x 98.3° epoch June 10 at 0514UTC

Offline input~2

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Object A and B have been switched, so that Object A is now the spacecraft.

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Just a shame I don't speak Russian, but interesting pictures, cannot imagine a US reporter being allowed to stand so close to an NRO payload.:)
I can't imagine why, the payload is encapsulated. Are there any inspection windows in the fairing?

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I have a high-resolution picture of the launcher on launch pad 17P32-4 here :

http://www.kosmonavtika.com/lancements/2013/07062013/07062013photos.html (picture n°10).

Also, I've been told (by a VERY reliable source) that payload is officially called 14Ф137 №2Л.
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Offline Stan Black

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What kind of coverage can we expect in the Russian media?

News in media and videos on TV channels after launch.

Thanks.

The Soyuz looked to be sporting a particularly large fairing on this launch, is it a new model of fairing for the Soyuz-2-1B?

Quote
The Interfax news agency the quoted the same official as saying that the Titov Chief Test center was in control of the satellite officially designated Kosmos-2486 and the spacecraft maintained telemetry communications with the ground and all onboard systems were functioning normally.

Quoted for the Kosmos designation.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/persona.html

 The previous Persona was encapsulated in a 14С738 fairing, whereas all Fregat launches have been 81КС. The question is, are they the same; different designation for the same thing, or is one for Fregat and does not include the transfer compartment?
 In the 81КС only numbers #005 and #006 have not flown, but are those for Soyuz-ST-A rockets #003 and Б15000-004?
 Both upcomming Resurs-P №2 and Progress M-UM are to use the 81КС.

 Soyuz-STA № Ш15000-001 eventually flew with 81КС № Б15000-006, so that just leaves fairing #005 unaccounted.
 14С738 may look like an 81КС, but I don’t think it is.

http://www.kosmonavtika.com/lancements/2012/02122012/02122012-177.jpg

Offline Stan Black

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Originally it had been reported that the Perso
A question which has always puzzled me is whether the design bureau programme name (like Yantar-4K2M) was Persona or whether the Ministry codename (like Kolbalt-M) was Persona.   Can anyone give a definitive answer to this?   Since Persona is used without an attached numerical designator, it would appear to be the Ministry name rather than the design bureau name - in which case what is the design bureau name?

Of course the system of assigning the different design bureau and ministry names might have changed over the years!

My understanding was that only the design bureau name was used until the satellite type was 'adopted into armaments' - but maybe I've misunderstood the system.

In the same sentence from ЦСКБ-Прогресс you find
Quote
Работы по изделиям «Лиана», «Барс», «Персона», «Дон» ведутся в соответствии с намеченными графиками и заключенными контрактами.
http://www.cosmopark.ru/lib/kir2.htm

However ЛОМО refers to «Барс» by its instrument «Карат»
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Предприятием сформирован портфель заказов по основной деятельности до 2013 года на общую сумму около 9 млрд. рублей, состоящий из таких приоритетных проектов для государства, как: «Булава», «Персона», «Карат», «Игла-С», «Верба» и др.
http://www.lomo.ru/site/about/qreport3-11.rtf
« Last Edit: 06/22/2013 10:08 am by Stan Black »


Offline Stan Black

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http://www.samspace.ru/zakupki/plany_zakupok/

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Разработка проектов каталожных описаний системы 14К031 (с изд. 14Ф137 № 2)

Offline fatjohn1408

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So who is the launch service provider for such a payload? Is it TsSKB-Progress as well?

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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There is no "launch services provider".

Space Forces (VKO) need a rocket. They order it to TsSKB, and they launch it with their own facilities, worforce, etc.

Actually, VKO are their own "launch services provider".

Private companies (Intelsat, etc.) use launch services provider because they don't have cosmodroms, rockets, worforce, etc.
VKO have all oh this, so they don't need any launch service provider.
Nicolas PILLET
Kosmonavtika : The French site on Russian Space


Offline owais.usmani

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Persona-2 fails in orbit?

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/persona.html#2_flight

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In July 2013, NII TP design bureau published a press-release stating that Persona No. 2 was undergoing flight testing. The company congratulated its staff with the successful commissioning of the communication gear onboard the satellite. However shortly thereafter, the spacecraft was apparently lost, prompting Russian air and space defense forces, VKO, to take out of retirement a previous-generation Kobalt-M satellite and launch it on May 6, 2014. However, given the short life span of Kobalt-type spacecraft, it would be only a temporary solution to the problem of inadequate high-resolution imaging capabilities available to the Russian military in a midst of the Ukrainian crisis.

 :o

Offline Stan Black

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14К031 Persona
Electro-optical reconnaissance satellite
Product: 14Ф137 № 3
Components: ОЭК 17В321, СУ 14М339М, БВС 14М828, 3x БОКЗ-М60, БА МЛСПИ
Launch vehicle: Soyuz-2-1B with 14С738

<snip>

МЛСПИ - межспутниковой лазерной системы передачи информации

[translation: Intersatellite laser information transmission system]


Oh! That looks interesting. Any indication what the satellite on the other end of the laser link might be?



Google just found this for me:-
Quote
Обеспечение и проведение калибровочных радиационных испытаний электро-радиоизделий иностранного производства, комплектующих аппаратуру МЛСПИ изделия 14Ф137 N 2
http://www.socionet.ru

Looks like this one too featured a LASER communications system?

Offline owais.usmani

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So is this satellite alive and healthy?

Offline Liss

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Of the five images of Eastern Ukraine published by Russian Ministry of Defense on July 21, two were made by Persona and other three by Resurs-P №1. It follows from the dates and times of images which correspond to high passes of the two satellites.
« Last Edit: 08/03/2014 08:46 pm by Liss »
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Of the five images of Eastern Ukraine published by Russian Ministry of Defense on July 17, two were made by Persona and other three by Resurs-P №1. It follows from the dates and times of images which correspond to high passes of the two satellites.

Are these images available online, Igor?
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Of the five images of Eastern Ukraine published by Russian Ministry of Defense on July 17, two were made by Persona and other three by Resurs-P №1. It follows from the dates and times of images which correspond to high passes of the two satellites.

Are these images available online, Igor?

The pictures shown during the press conference are available on the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense :

http://stat.multimedia.mil.ru/multimedia/photo/gallery.htm?id=17402@cmsPhotoGallery

A full transcript of the press conference (in Russian and English) is here :

http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=11970654@egNews

Which pictures were made by Persona?


Offline Liss

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Of the five images of Eastern Ukraine published by Russian Ministry of Defense on July 17, two were made by Persona and other three by Resurs-P №1. It follows from the dates and times of images which correspond to high passes of the two satellites.

Are these images available online, Igor?

The pictures shown during the press conference are available on the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense :

http://stat.multimedia.mil.ru/multimedia/photo/gallery.htm?id=17402@cmsPhotoGallery

A full transcript of the press conference (in Russian and English) is here :

http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=11970654@egNews

Which pictures were made by Persona?

See date and time at the top of each image:

(1) 14.07.2014 11:31 -- Lugansk area
(2a) 14.07.2014 11:40 -- Donetsk area
(2b) 14.07.2014 11:40 -- Donetsk area
(3) 17.07.2014 11:32 -- Donetsk area
(4) 17.07.2014 11:32 -- Shakhtersk area
(5) 18.07.2014 11:39 -- Shakhtersk area

Times are DMV (UTC+3h).
(2a) and (2b) are parts of the same image. (3) and (4) can be, too.
Of these, (2a), (2b) and (5) are probably images by Persona (exact match to passes at elevation 80° or so), and (1), (3) and (4) are probably images by Resurs-P (exact match to passes at elevation 60° or so).
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Liss

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Ivan Safronov Jr. confirms successful reprogramming of Persona: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2538401
« Last Edit: 08/04/2014 07:02 pm by Liss »
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Since Cosmos 2486 is working, do we know whether the Persona satellite has been "accepted into the armaments" and if so, when please?
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline Stan Black

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14К031 Persona
Electro-optical reconnaissance satellite
Product: 14Ф137 № 3
Components: ОЭК 17В321, СУ 14М339М, БВС 14М828, 3x БОКЗ-М60, БА МЛСПИ
Launch vehicle: Soyuz-2-1B with 14С738

<snip>

МЛСПИ - межспутниковой лазерной системы передачи информации

[translation: Intersatellite laser information transmission system]


Oh! That looks interesting. Any indication what the satellite on the other end of the laser link might be?



Google just found this for me:-
Quote
Обеспечение и проведение калибровочных радиационных испытаний электро-радиоизделий иностранного производства, комплектующих аппаратуру МЛСПИ изделия 14Ф137 N 2
http://www.socionet.ru

Looks like this one too featured a LASER communications system?

Also features the same 14Д520 propulsion system as Resurs-P and the Volga upper stage?

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Приборы и системы «Сторож-2М-7М», МЛСПИ, БЦВМС, ДКУ, БИТС-2Ц-7М, гермоперехода ИБПА, ОСД, БОКЗ-М60, КАС 14М102, блока мультиплексора для изготовления производством изделия 14Ф137 №2, а также приборы и системы ОСД, БОКЗ-М60, 14М533 (СГК), БИУС-ВОА, БЦВМС, ДКУ, ОДУ 14Д520, АБ, БСКВУ разрабатывались предприятиями-соисполнителями в рамках договоров на выполнение ОКР (СЧ ОКР), заключенных ФГУП ГНПРКЦ «ЦСКБ «Прогресс» и изготавливались по конструкторской документации, входящей в комплект документов разрабатываемого изделия, и являются составными частями опытного образца изделия 14Ф137.
https://rospravosudie.com/court-as-goroda-moskvy-s/judge-sizova-olga-vladimirovna-s/act-309197056/
« Last Edit: 08/19/2014 06:22 pm by Stan Black »

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Celestrak data shows that Kosmos-2486, the second Persona (14F137) optical reconnaissance satellite, has not made any orbit corrections since at least July 2020 (and probably longer) (see attachment 1). This indicates that it is no longer active. The third Persona, Kosmos-2506, has made several maneuvers in recent months and seems to be operational (see attachment 2). Both satellites (launched in 2013 and 2015) have most likely exceeded their design lifetime by a significant margin.

If Kosmos-2486 has indeed been decommissioned, that would leave Russia with just a single active optical reconnaissance satellite in orbit (not taking into account the topographical Bars-M satellites, which probably have low resolution). The Russian military could also use high-resolution imagery from the civilian Resurs-P satellites, but all three satellites launched thus far have broken down. The lack of imaging satellites undoubtedly has a significant effect on Russia’s intelligence gathering capability during the war in Ukraine.

As a stopgap measure, Russia may rely on imagery obtained by Iran’s Khayyam satellite, which has two daylight passes over Ukraine every morning. The satellite and most of its ground infrastructure were provided to Iran by Russia on a turnkey basis. Three small reconnaissance satellites of the VNIIEM Corporation (MKA 1, 2 and 3, possibly also called Razbeg), which were scheduled for launch in the second half of last year, may go up in the coming weeks or months. They may be identical or similar to Khayyam and could be launched together by a single Soyuz rocket.  The true successors of Persona are the KH-11 class Razdan satellites of the Progress Rocket and Space Center, two of which are known to be under construction. They are years behind schedule and it’s not clear when they will be ready to fly.   



Offline Steven Pietrobon

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As a stopgap measure, Russia may rely on imagery obtained by Iran’s Khayyam satellite, which has two daylight passes over Ukraine every morning.

China could also be providing images of Ukraine to Russia.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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As a stopgap measure, Russia may rely on imagery obtained by Iran’s Khayyam satellite, which has two daylight passes over Ukraine every morning.

China could also be providing images of Ukraine to Russia.

Anything is possible, but as far as we can tell, China does not (yet) intend to provide military support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine. Sharing satellite images with Russia would be doing exactly that, so I'm not so sure.

Iran is a different story. They have no qualms about supplying Russia with kamikaze drones, so providing the satellite imagery is just a small step compared to that. Plus the fact that Khayyam and its ground infrastructure are Russian-built.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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As a stopgap measure, Russia may rely on imagery obtained by Iran’s Khayyam satellite, which has two daylight passes over Ukraine every morning.

China could also be providing images of Ukraine to Russia.

Anything is possible, but as far as we can tell, China does not (yet) intend to provide military support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine. Sharing satellite images with Russia would be doing exactly that, so I'm not so sure.

Somewhat off-topic here, but now that we're on the subject:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64421915
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Ukraine: US sanctions Chinese firm helping Russia's Wagner Group

The US has sanctioned a Chinese company for allegedly providing satellite imagery of Ukraine to support the mercenary Wagner Group's combat operations for Russia. Changsha Tianyi Space Science and Technology Research Institute is among 16 entities slapped with curbs by the Treasury Department. The firm, also known as Spacety China, has offices in Beijing and Luxembourg.Wagner supplies Russia thousands of fighters in the Ukraine war.

Spacety China had provided Terra Tech, a Russia-based technology firm, with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images of locations in Ukraine, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control said in a statement on Thursday.
"These images were gathered in order to enable Wagner combat operations in Ukraine," it said. The department has also sanctioned Spacety's Luxembourg-based subsidiary. Under the sanctions, there can be no transfer, payment, or export of any property or interests in the United States to the targeted entities. Spacety China has yet to respond to the move.

China, a close ally of Russia, has attempted to position itself as a neutral party with regard to the Ukraine war. It has been criticised by the US and its allies for refusing to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On its website, Spacety China describes itself as a "pioneer" in providing commercial SAR technology and says it wants to "make SAR imagery of every point on earth accessible and affordable" to users all over the world. Its chief executive officer Yang Feng sits on China's Ministry of Science and Technology's panel of experts, according to the company's website. The site also lists a number of working partners including state-owned enterprises China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation and China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, as well as the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
...


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