Author Topic: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation  (Read 264763 times)

Offline dcfowler1

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #40 on: 08/18/2023 03:28 am »
Further, US astronauts have attended ETPS (Empire Test Pilot School) in the UK, and France's ÉPNER (École du personnel navigant d'essais et de réception).

Has nasafan missed the fact that the Crew 7 commander is both a rotor wing pilot and a test pilot?

Offline Michael Cassutt

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #41 on: 08/18/2023 05:55 pm »
Your posts are very hard to read and to understand. I'm missing periods at the end of the sentences. A lot of names like Barratt, Marshburn or Fincke you wrote with small first letter. This is not correct.

Seconded. The post is punctuated as if the entire thing was one sentence, which makes it much harder to follow.
I apologize John I have punctuation issues.

You've said so, and it happens. But you are online so why not try Grammarly or other sites that will help you with your texts.

And, for those who came in late, this IS the "speculation" thread, largely created to find a home for NASAFan95. I have speculated about flight crew assignments, US and Russian, for decades so, believe it or not, am sympathetic and interested.

But what drives me and, I suspect, others here to distraction is speculation that ignores available public information. How can you ask if Dominick -- who was never officially assigned as a Starliner backup -- is still the Starliner backup at a time when he will be flying Crew-9?

Has NASA assigned a new backup CDR to Starliner-1? Check with nasa.gov first. I haven't seen one. Those are just the immediate examples. This thread can be fun if a) we can actually parse a text and b) we don't ignore established facts.


Michael Cassutt
co-author DEKE!, WE HAVE CAPTURE
author THE ASTRONAUT MAKER, WHO'S WHO IN SPACE (3 volumes)

Offline Michael Cassutt

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #42 on: 08/18/2023 06:59 pm »
I think seniority had more to do with the Bowen-Hoburg assignment. Bowen had three prior Shuttle flights to his credit, in addition to a military background.

Lindgren had a prior ISS increment and the Demo-2 backup command (not PLT) to his credit.

As I understand it, Dragon does not require test piloting credentials (or a military background) for the CDR.

Even I, with some inside sources, have no explanation for the assignment of Chari as CDR of Crew-3.... but there is one bit of info that has not been published as far as I know:

Lindgren was originally assigned as CDR of Crew-2, a logical step given his years of backup duty on Dragon. But he had to step aside due to a temporary medical matter.

Was the original CDR/PLT team of Crew-2 Lindgren-McArthur? Logic says so but maybe it was Lindgren-Marshburn with Kimbrough-McArthur originally Crew-3.

Either way, the Lindgren change, made at some point prior to the Crew-2 announcement in July 2020, seems to have opened a spot for Chari.

Speculation, I know: guilty, officer ;)

MC

Offline John_Marshall

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #43 on: 08/18/2023 08:56 pm »
But what drives me and, I suspect, others here to distraction is speculation that ignores available public information. How can you ask if Dominick -- who was never officially assigned as a Starliner backup -- is still the Starliner backup at a time when he will be flying Crew-9?

Thank you very much for putting words to our frustration, Michael. I would just add that speculation that ignores the absence of information is equally frustrating, such as who will command Expedition insert-number-here that's still way down the line.

Regarding Matthew Dominick, was that never official? I was pretty sure that I read that in something official (I know I read it--I just can't recall where)--but I could be wrong.

Lindgren was originally assigned as CDR of Crew-2, a logical step given his years of backup duty on Dragon. But he had to step aside due to a temporary medical matter.

Interesting! I did not know that. I recall wondering why his second flight was delayed so long when he had been a backup even for DM-2 (the very first flight).

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #44 on: 08/18/2023 09:13 pm »
Are/were there any astronaut or ASCAN doctors of osteopathy?
Flight Test School graduation is used to satisfy the Masters degree requirement for Astronaut candidacy (as well as a completed Physician program (MD or DO)).
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #45 on: 08/18/2023 09:39 pm »
Thank you for posting! 😊
You've said so, and it happens. But you are online so why not try Grammarly or other sites that will help you with your texts.

And, for those who came in late, this IS the "speculation" thread, largely created to find a home for NASAFan95. I have speculated about flight crew assignments, US and Russian, for decades so, believe it or not, am sympathetic and interested.

But what drives me and, I suspect, others here to distraction is speculation that ignores available public information. How can you ask if Dominick -- who was never officially assigned as a Starliner backup -- is still the Starliner backup at a time when he will be flying Crew-9?

Has NASA assigned a new backup CDR to Starliner-1? Check with nasa.gov first. I haven't seen one. Those are just the immediate examples. This thread can be fun if a) we can actually parse a text and b) we don't ignore established facts.


Michael Cassutt
co-author DEKE!, WE HAVE CAPTURE
author THE ASTRONAUT MAKER, WHO'S WHO IN SPACE (3 volumes)

Our content-contributing and reading membership demands, and Chris Bergin and his moderators seek to provide, a professional level of writing and discourse.

We also like to have fun--see our party thread as an example. 🥳
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0

We know of, and allow for, varying levels of English as a foreign language proficiency.

We also acknowledge that even native English speakers may not have the mastered the skill of polishing their written statements, in the way that USA high school graduates should have mastered.

There are more tools 🔧 to assist one with writing than ever before.  I second the suggestion to seek and use at least one.

Also, using proper spelling, grammar, and syntax will earn one greater respect in any written forum.  That's not only true here; it's a life lesson.

Pure, ignoring-established-facts speculation, in my opinion, has no home here on this forum. I believe Chris B shares this belief.  There is an active report to moderator on this very thread and topic, visible to the forum administrators and moderators.

Light closing joke, in the words of wisdom from Dean Wormer to Kent Dorfman:
"Fat, drunk 🥴 , and stupid is no way to go through life, son."

« Last Edit: 08/18/2023 09:50 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline Rian

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #46 on: 08/19/2023 01:19 am »
But what drives me and, I suspect, others here to distraction is speculation that ignores available public information. How can you ask if Dominick -- who was never officially assigned as a Starliner backup -- is still the Starliner backup at a time when he will be flying Crew-9?

Thank you very much for putting words to our frustration, Michael. I would just add that speculation that ignores the absence of information is equally frustrating, such as who will command Expedition insert-number-here that's still way down the line.

Not to open the can of worms again but what makes the discussion of who we think will be commander of a future expedition unwarranted speculation but then it is ok to have full discussions about who we think will be on future Artemis missions.

I think speculation that ignores the absence of information frustrating goes to show this isn't a true speculation thread. Speculation is without firm evidence.

If we wanted to speculate who was on the crew of Artemis III where would one go to do that? That is the question I have because according to those in this thread this is not the thread but we "can't" go ahead and make a speculation thread.

Edit: I believe to a certain degree speculating future commanders, crews, etc. is absolutely no different than many on this forum do in regards to speculating who is getting the CLD award or when Starship is launching next.
« Last Edit: 08/19/2023 01:28 am by Rian »

Offline John_Marshall

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #47 on: 08/19/2023 04:01 am »
I think speculation that ignores the absence of information frustrating goes to show this isn't a true speculation thread. Speculation is without firm evidence.

...

Edit: I believe to a certain degree speculating future commanders, crews, etc. is absolutely no different than many on this forum do in regards to speculating who is getting the CLD award or when Starship is launching next.

I wasn't clear in my post. Let me try to clarify. I could give you a prediction for the Artemis V crew that has little chance of being right but is defensible based on who has flown when and my Artemis III and IV predictions. I wasn't talking about that. What frustrates me is walls of text chock full of non-educated-guess speculation that might as well be picking names out of a hat and/or is based on little more than who one would like to see fly, as well as repeatedly asking about or musing on very simple questions that clearly have not been answered yet (like a launch date for mission X or a backup crew for mission Y) and that we are likely to get the answers to at basically the same time as the person asking. I hope this helps.

Offline dcfowler1

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #48 on: 08/19/2023 05:53 am »
Are/were there any astronaut or ASCAN doctors of osteopathy?
Flight Test School graduation is used to satisfy the Masters degree requirement for Astronaut candidacy (as well as a completed Physician program (MD or DO)).

At least three DOs have been finalists, but none selected to date.

Offline vp.

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #49 on: 08/19/2023 07:10 am »
And now, we can speculate on Crew-9.  ;D

Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #50 on: 08/19/2023 07:54 am »
And now, we can speculate on Crew-9.  ;D

Mine are :

CDR : Anne McClain or Randy Bresnik or Jonathan Kim
PLT : Zena Cardman or Jonathan Kim or Alexander Gerst
MS-1 : Kimiya Yui (confirmed already)
MS-2 : Aleksandr Gorbunov (not confirmed but logical since he is Aleksandr Grebyonkin back-up for Crew-8)

But something sure, Crew-9 his already in training together, we just need to have inside info or picture and we will identify who is on Crew-9
« Last Edit: 08/19/2023 07:54 am by marcdrnl »

Offline vp.

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #51 on: 08/19/2023 09:52 am »
I doubt the next ESA astronaut will be Gerst.
It will surely be a German, but I am thinking of Maurer.
But a Canadian should fly first.

Cardman, Kim are the last of the group of 2017 not to have an assignment.

JAXA has officially announced Yui's flight for 2025.

CDR : Kim
PLT : Kutryk
MS-1 : Yui
MS-2 : Gorbounov

Maurer on Starliner 1.

Offline Michael Cassutt

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #52 on: 08/19/2023 03:51 pm »
I think speculation that ignores the absence of information frustrating goes to show this isn't a true speculation thread. Speculation is without firm evidence.

...

Edit: I believe to a certain degree speculating future commanders, crews, etc. is absolutely no different than many on this forum do in regards to speculating who is getting the CLD award or when Starship is launching next.

I wasn't clear in my post. Let me try to clarify. I could give you a prediction for the Artemis V crew that has little chance of being right but is defensible based on who has flown when and my Artemis III and IV predictions. [snippage]

We could all have fun speculating on Artemis III right now, since it seems likely to be a Gateway or lunar orbit mission, not a landing.

(I think Bresnik is a good candidate for an Artemis command, especially this one, with McClain as PLT, Wilson as MS. Not sure if the first Gateway would have an international MS.)

Now, back to Artemis IV, first landing ;)

Michael Cassutt

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #53 on: 08/19/2023 04:05 pm »
And I would remind folk, this is NOT the main crew assignment thread, that is here:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=740.0

This is a discussion thread where any such posts listed above are here.
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Offline Rian

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #54 on: 08/20/2023 03:10 am »
I doubt the next ESA astronaut will be Gerst.
It will surely be a German, but I am thinking of Maurer.
But a Canadian should fly first.

Cardman, Kim are the last of the group of 2017 not to have an assignment.

JAXA has officially announced Yui's flight for 2025.

CDR : Kim
PLT : Kutryk
MS-1 : Yui
MS-2 : Gorbounov

Maurer on Starliner 1.

ESA seems pretty good about  giving their Astronauts equal amount of time between flights so I can't really see Maurer getting a slot before Gerst, Parmitano, and Pesquet. Don't forget the new class graduate in November of this year meaning they will be eligible for Crew-9+.
« Last Edit: 08/20/2023 03:15 am by Rian »

Offline John_Marshall

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #55 on: 08/20/2023 03:38 am »
ESA seems pretty good about  giving their Astronauts equal amount of time between flights so I can't really see Maurer getting a slot before Gerst, Parmitano, and Pesquet. Don't forget the new class graduate in November of this year meaning they will be eligible for Crew-9+.

Would one of them have enough time to train for Crew-9, which will launch in basically a year from now? It seems like it would make more sense for Yui to get the Crew-9 seat (as seems to have been confirmed), Kutryk to get the PCM-1 seat, and a rookie ESA astronaut to fly on Crew-10.

Offline Rian

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #56 on: 08/20/2023 03:50 am »
ESA seems pretty good about  giving their Astronauts equal amount of time between flights so I can't really see Maurer getting a slot before Gerst, Parmitano, and Pesquet. Don't forget the new class graduate in November of this year meaning they will be eligible for Crew-9+.

Would one of them have enough time to train for Crew-9, which will launch in basically a year from now? It seems like it would make more sense for Yui to get the Crew-9 seat (as seems to have been confirmed), Kutryk to get the PCM-1 seat, and a rookie ESA astronaut to fly on Crew-10.

I think Jessica Watkins and Shannon Walker both didn't start training until a year or less. But I believe you're right in terms of Crew-10. I'm interested to see how ESA gives flights to rookies versus experienced astronauts once they graduate.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #57 on: 08/20/2023 05:54 am »
<snip>
I'm interested to see how ESA gives flights to rookies versus experienced astronauts once they graduate.
ESA is sending up rookie Astronauts in short duration Axiom Crew Dragon flights to the ISS.

Offline vp.

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Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #58 on: 08/20/2023 07:56 am »
...
 I'm interested to see how ESA gives flights to rookies versus experienced astronauts once they graduate.

ESA had announced that it would offer a second flight opportunity for each astronaut in the class of 2009.
That's why I think Maurer will be next.
Then experienced astronauts will fly to Gateway.

After Maurer, it should be Adenot's turn. She is the oldest of the new class and France has a flight time deficit compared to the Italians and the Germans.

ESA is sending up rookie Astronauts in short duration Axiom Crew Dragon flights to the ISS.

These flights are funded differently.
Sweden, Poland are increasing their funding to pay for these flights.
Italy and Hungary work outside ESA.

Re: Flight crew assignments questions/speculation
« Reply #59 on: 08/20/2023 10:08 am »

Has NASA assigned a new backup CDR to Starliner-1? Check with nasa.gov first. I haven't seen one. Those are just the immediate examples. This thread can be fun if a) we can actually parse a text and b) we don't ignore established facts.


Nick Hague might be a candidate. He his working on Starliner since August 2022 according to his Bio that had just been updated

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