Quote from: guckyfan on 08/17/2016 07:30 amGiven the new developments. The info that the engines of the test core had minor modifications to the present production status. The info that the insurance companies are willing to raise their premiums only moderately. They are now setting up the test core for more firings. They expect two launches of used bosters soon, maybe this year.They may get into the situation, that next year demand on used cores, from customers who want to change their contracts from new to reused, will exceed their capacity until they have a workshop ready with a rocket washing facility and for recoating of thrust structure and interstage. Next year the HIF at LC-39A will be busy with FH and commercial crew and will no longer be availabe to work on used boosters.That's assuming of course that they have no failures on their first two reflights.A big switch like this will mean that launch has become a commodity. Boosters will have become generic and all tailoring (not sure how much this will be) will be on second stage, flight profile, orbit, etc. A single booster could deliver crew to ISS, commercial to GTO, LEO propellant, whatever... this part of launch would then be considered a commodity.
Given the new developments. The info that the engines of the test core had minor modifications to the present production status. The info that the insurance companies are willing to raise their premiums only moderately. They are now setting up the test core for more firings. They expect two launches of used bosters soon, maybe this year.They may get into the situation, that next year demand on used cores, from customers who want to change their contracts from new to reused, will exceed their capacity until they have a workshop ready with a rocket washing facility and for recoating of thrust structure and interstage. Next year the HIF at LC-39A will be busy with FH and commercial crew and will no longer be availabe to work on used boosters.That's assuming of course that they have no failures on their first two reflights.
In 24 months SpaceX will offer a service to get to orbit and it will be irrelevant. It will be irrelevant whether its' new or reflown.
Given the successful reflight of B1021 for SES-10, I'm bumping this thread.In the post SES-10 presser, SES CTO Martin Halliwell said they will gladly fly future missions on reused boosters. Musk said that other customers have expressed interest, contingent on the success of SES-10. Musk also said he expects 6 reused boosters to fly this year (though 2 are probably on the FH demo), 12 next year quickly ramping up to 3/4 missions being on reused boosters.
So, First Stage reuse is a fact. Fairings were (officially) tested this time. When are we going to see a reuseable Second Stage, if only for LEO payloads? Surely this is required for MuskNet?
Quote from: the_other_Doug on 08/03/2016 03:24 pmThis is rather like the discussion we saw prior to SpaceX's first stage recoveries. I believe that once SpaceX re-flies a few F9 stages, the chorus from the Doubting Thomases will fade away right quick... "Doug for President of the Optimist Club"...
This is rather like the discussion we saw prior to SpaceX's first stage recoveries. I believe that once SpaceX re-flies a few F9 stages, the chorus from the Doubting Thomases will fade away right quick...
...But I would bet (just a phrase, I don't bet) that in 2019 most launches will be on reused boosters ...
E: It's customers that are willing to take flight-proven booster, or some will still want to see a lot more flights before they are comfortable with what we will call a flight proven booster. They may use a different term - . So, .. But I .. It does seems as though .. We might do half a dozen, or more, flights of re-flown booster this year, and then next year, probably double that. And then I'd expect that, for the Falcon architecture, over time, probably 3/4 of our missions are with a re-flown booster. M: As an operator, I could add to that, my belief is that within 24 months, people like SpaceX, or SpaceX specifically, will offer a service to orbit, and it will be irrelevant. It will be irrelevant if it's new, or it's pre-flown, it'll be irrelevant, within 24 months. That's what this means today.
But I would bet (just a phrase, I don't bet) that in 2019 most launches will be on reused boosters including contracts already signed for new ones. The contracts will be renegotiated with reusable prices. By that time they will probably have enough cores in store that they don't need to build new ones before the Falcon family is phased out.
Things are progressing faster than even SpaceX anticipated...
Quote from: guckyfan on 08/01/2016 03:32 pmBut I would bet (just a phrase, I don't bet) that in 2019 most launches will be on reused boosters including contracts already signed for new ones. The contracts will be renegotiated with reusable prices. By that time they will probably have enough cores in store that they don't need to build new ones before the Falcon family is phased out.Things are progressing faster than even SpaceX anticipated...Looking like we may see a 50-50 manifest by end of this year -- 2017 -- baring mishaps, of course.
FH complicates the situation with its wildly unpredictable launch 'cadence' and core configuration, but it only helps (unless STP-2 is three new cores).
Until they re-use more than once, the number cannot be >50% for any sustainable time ...--- Tony