Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?

[Dave G]

SpaceX talks Moon mission as strategic stepping stone for Mars colony

Josh Brost, Senior Director of SpaceX’s Government Business Development was in attendance at a civil spaceflight conference in Washington D.C. yesterday, January 18, and provided a number of interesting details about SpaceX’s upcoming activities in 2018. Perhaps most intriguingly, he reiterated SpaceX’s interest in enabling exploration of the Moon and Mars, while also clarifying that the upcoming Falcon 9 upgrade will be the last major change to the vehicle for the indefinite future.

Curiously, Brost explicitly tempered CEO Elon Musk’s common-knowledge goal of Martian colonization, with a suggestion that the Moon could be a more logical starting place for the company as it ramps up its deep space efforts and gradually slips beyond Earth orbit. This is clearly a strategic and calculated contradiction of the launch company’s famous founder and an attempt to position SpaceX in a way that can derive the most value from the Federal government’s recently revived interest in returning US astronauts to the Moon...

While it was a small detail in an obscure sentence of one of several hour-long discussions, Brost specifically stated this:

(see tweet below)

This is arguably the most exciting tidbit provided to us by SpaceX. While it was undeniably vague and rather less than crystal-clear, it can be interpreted as something like this: once Block 5 has been introduced and begun to fly and refly both regularly and successfully, the vast majority of SpaceX’s launch vehicle development expertise will begin to focus intensely on the development and testing of BFR and BFS.

Statements from just last week made by SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell strengthen this intuitive leap considerably, because BFR and BFS are liable to require a considerable amount of attention as they proceed through design maturation and eventually begin physical hardware testing in Texas.

Shotwell’s comments implied that SpaceX’s Boca Chica launch facilities, currently under construction, would be ready to support “vehicle tests” as early as late 2018/early 2019. Comments from earlier in 2017 indicate that SpaceX (and Shotwell) perceive Boca Chica as a near-perfect location for BFR launches (and thus BFR testing, as well). Finally, Brost’s implication that SpaceX’s exceptional team of brilliant and innovative launch vehicle engineers would be refocused on BFR soon after Block 5 was stable also meshes with this rough timeline. If Falcon 9 Block 5 does indeed debut within the “next few months” as Brost stated, it will have likely reached some level of design and operational maturity by the end of 2018, assuming SpaceX’s expected launch

[cebri]

4:41

Shotwell talking about Boca Chica for "early vehicle testing". Moving from a "test site to a launch site". 

[Jakusb]

Sorry if discussed before, but I could only find a post and small discussion on inclination that did not give me the answer I am looking for..

What are the restrictions on over flying populated land?
I mean, from what hight is it allowed to overfly populated land?
Does it need to be in orbit, and if so, could BFR be in orbit before overflying Florida?

I guess there are limitations preventing this, otherwise it would have been discussed, but I would like te understand better the precise mechanics...

thanks for any insight into this matter

(a noob on this field)

[envy887]

Sorry if discussed before, but I could only find a post and small discussion on inclination that did not give me the answer I am looking for..

What are the restrictions on over flying populated land?
I mean, from what hight is it allowed to overfly populated land?
Does it need to be in orbit, and if so, could BFR be in orbit before overflying Florida?

I guess there are limitations preventing this, otherwise it would have been discussed, but I would like te understand better the precise mechanics...

thanks for any insight into this matter

(a noob on this field)

The overflight itself is not a problem, as long as it occurs at an altitude of over 100 km if over other countries. It could be even lower over the US with FAA approval.

The problem is where rocket parts are going to land if things go kablooey at just the wrong time. That is the "instantaneous impact point", or IIP. The IIP starts under the rocket at launch, and proceeds downrange faster than the rocket, at the other end of an approximately ballistic arc. The IIP actually goes all the way around the world in the 10 minutes or so it takes the rocket to get to orbit.

The combination of failure probability at any given time, IIP dwell time over populated ares, the population density under the path the IIP takes, and the size and weight of the falling rocket parts, all determine the probability of a casualty on the ground. The probability of a casualty has to be less than 30x10^-6 per flight to get FAA approval.

[Ludus]

Sorry if discussed before, but I could only find a post and small discussion on inclination that did not give me the answer I am looking for..

What are the restrictions on over flying populated land?
I mean, from what hight is it allowed to overfly populated land?
Does it need to be in orbit, and if so, could BFR be in orbit before overflying Florida?

I guess there are limitations preventing this, otherwise it would have been discussed, but I would like te understand better the precise mechanics...

thanks for any insight into this matter

(a noob on this field)

The overflight itself is not a problem, as long as it occurs at an altitude of over 100 km if over other countries. It could be even lower over the US with FAA approval.

The problem is where rocket parts are going to land if things go kablooey at just the wrong time. That is the "instantaneous impact point", or IIP. The IIP starts under the rocket at launch, and proceeds downrange faster than the rocket, at the other end of an approximately ballistic arc. The IIP actually goes all the way around the world in the 10 minutes or so it takes the rocket to get to orbit.

The combination of failure probability at any given time, IIP dwell time over populated ares, the population density under the path the IIP takes, and the size and weight of the falling rocket parts, all determine the probability of a casualty on the ground. The probability of a casualty has to be less than 30x10^-6 per flight to get FAA approval.

Very informative. Is this the same standard applied to commercial aircraft flights?

[speedevil]

Very informative. Is this the same standard applied to commercial aircraft flights?

Implicitly.
30*10^-6 deaths per flight, times 10 million flights is 300 deaths per year from commercial flight.
Not counting passenger deaths, it has been considerably below this for some time.
Counting passenger deaths, since perhaps 2011.

[Robotbeat]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

[guckyfan]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

Why would they launch in the middle of nowhere when they have a floating platform? Boca Chica comes to mind.

[Robotbeat]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

Why would they launch in the middle of nowhere when they have a floating platform? Boca Chica comes to mind.

Because Kwaj is an active missile range with full range assets and far from major populated areas.

[TripleSeven]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

Why would they launch in the middle of nowhere when they have a floating platform? Boca Chica comes to mind.

there is near zero SpaceX infrastructure left on Kwaj.  near none

[Ludus]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

Why would they launch in the middle of nowhere when they have a floating platform? Boca Chica comes to mind.

there is near zero SpaceX infrastructure left on Kwaj.  near none

The floating platform launch site did get a vague mention from Elon in response to this question at the Dear Moon press event.

This thing probably isn’t like an ASDS that can just be made out of something off the shelf like a Marmac barge. If it gets built in a major shipyard, chances are it comes from Asia. Kwaj would be closer. OTOH it would be much easier to get it working off of Boca Chica than in the middle of nowhere.

It’s an appealing idea if you want to have Spaceports all over the world launching everyday to build them in shipyards and float them where needed.

http://thorconpower.com/costing/the-shipyard-model

[Robotbeat]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

Why would they launch in the middle of nowhere when they have a floating platform? Boca Chica comes to mind.

there is near zero SpaceX infrastructure left on Kwaj.  near none

There is range infrastructure by the US military. Which is why SpaceX was there in the first place. Pegasus sometimes flies out of Kwaj for exactly the same reason.

...but you're much smarter.

[gongora]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

Why would they launch in the middle of nowhere when they have a floating platform? Boca Chica comes to mind.

there is near zero SpaceX infrastructure left on Kwaj.  near none

There is range infrastructure by the US military. Which is why SpaceX was there in the first place. Pegasus sometimes flies out of Kwaj for exactly the same reason.

...but you're much smarter.

By range infrastructure you mean a radar?  There doesn't seem to be much else, and it seems busier with military stuff these days than it was during the Falcon 1 campaigns.

[Robotbeat]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

Why would they launch in the middle of nowhere when they have a floating platform? Boca Chica comes to mind.

there is near zero SpaceX infrastructure left on Kwaj.  near none

There is range infrastructure by the US military. Which is why SpaceX was there in the first place. Pegasus sometimes flies out of Kwaj for exactly the same reason.

...but you're much smarter.

By range infrastructure you mean a radar?  There doesn't seem to be much else, and it seems busier with military stuff these days than it was during the Falcon 1 campaigns.

...and still used by Pegasus to this day, so clearly an option.

BFR on a mobile platform may want to launch from Kwajalein for the same reasons that Pegasus does today.

[Zed_Noir]

I’m thinking Kwaj is a real option for BFR, from a floating platform.

Why would they launch in the middle of nowhere when they have a floating platform? Boca Chica comes to mind.

there is near zero SpaceX infrastructure left on Kwaj.  near none

There is range infrastructure by the US military. Which is why SpaceX was there in the first place. Pegasus sometimes flies out of Kwaj for exactly the same reason.

...but you're much smarter.

By range infrastructure you mean a radar?  There doesn't seem to be much else, and it seems busier with military stuff these days than it was during the Falcon 1 campaigns.

...and still used by Pegasus to this day, so clearly an option.

BFR on a mobile platform may want to launch from Kwajalein for the same reasons that Pegasus does today.

Doesn't using the Iridium constellation or similar constellations as range assets negates the need for a ground infrastructure?