Author Topic: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?  (Read 84671 times)

Offline Dave G

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3333
  • Liked: 2179
  • Likes Given: 2079
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #100 on: 12/27/2017 09:38 pm »
Lots of discussion about building something larger than BFR.

Is there any basis for this, or is it purely speculation?

Again, as I understand it, the 12m ITS design was scrapped in favor of the 9m BFR design.

Has SpaceX mentioned anything about building something larger than the 9m BFR since September?

Offline DavidCar

  • Member
  • Posts: 21
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #101 on: 12/28/2017 12:02 am »
No, building a large diameter BFR+ would be better.

But that is a long way off.

BFR will lift 150 tonnes to leo, for less than the cost of a Falcon 1, can you think of anything sensible that weighs more than 150 tonnes but can't be launched in pieces?

I'm thinking a large diameter lunar or martian habitation module might be more easily constructed on earth and transported from there rather than be constructed on site, avoiding potential problems with moon dust, or at least for initial habitation modules to be used while gaining experience with constructing things on site.

Offline guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7461
  • Germany
  • Liked: 2350
  • Likes Given: 2976
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #102 on: 12/28/2017 01:58 am »
No, building a large diameter BFR+ would be better.

But that is a long way off.

BFR will lift 150 tonnes to leo, for less than the cost of a Falcon 1, can you think of anything sensible that weighs more than 150 tonnes but can't be launched in pieces?


I'm thinking a large diameter lunar or martian habitation module might be more easily constructed on earth and transported from there rather than be constructed on site, avoiding potential problems with moon dust, or at least for initial habitation modules to be used while gaining experience with constructing things on site.

You can use a BFS fully equipped for that purpose. It is not that expensive.

Offline Dave G

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3333
  • Liked: 2179
  • Likes Given: 2079
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #103 on: 12/28/2017 02:42 pm »
I'm thinking a large diameter lunar or martian habitation module might be more easily constructed on earth and transported from there rather than be constructed on site, avoiding potential problems with moon dust, or at least for initial habitation modules to be used while gaining experience with constructing things on site.

You can use a BFS fully equipped for that purpose. It is not that expensive.

For lunar habitation, I suspect they'll need to go underground to avoid radiation.  Same with Mars.

In fact, Gwynne mentioned this at Stanford:
Quote from: Gwynne Shotwell
SpaceX is focused on the transportation part of the Mars problem, but people need somewhere to go once they arrive. I don't think it's an accident that Elon started the Boring Company, tunnels will be very important in the first steps of living on Mars, before we build domes and terraform.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/37659376821

« Last Edit: 12/28/2017 04:30 pm by Dave G »

Offline John Alan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 958
  • Central IL - USA - Earth
    • Home of the ThreadRipper Cadillac
  • Liked: 721
  • Likes Given: 2735
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #104 on: 12/29/2017 12:15 am »
I have not posted to this thread yet... because I wanted to think on the topic a while...  ???

I still think (as I stated elsewhere) that BC will start out as a test center with suborbital hops of BFS...
Next will be low altitude BFR booster hops with minimal engine counts in use... to confirm landing OP's mainly...

First full up, full stack, let it all rip, launch...   :o
All new built pad somewhere else...  ;)

My guess is leaning toward somewhere on Vandenberg AFB... Polar launches... and StarLink initial...
Closely followed by an all new duplicate pad at the Cape... where at exactly, is TBD...

Now... BC may have the same 'bones' as the pads that get finished first on the coasts...
Close enough that it could be finished out as a full blown, fast pace, rapid fire pad like the other two...
BUT... If the government regulators and Texas don't want that... then SpaceX will never finish it out...
And take the jobs and money elsewhere...  :(

On edit...
BC is an early R&D test flight location located well away from the jet ways and air traffic of the coasts...
It's really an annex of McGregor... needed when they lost flight privileges up there... in other words...
And finally...
SpaceX is unlikely (IMHO) to go to great expense to offshore a pad there...
If the regulators balk on amending the EIS... they will not finish the pad out...  ;)
« Last Edit: 12/29/2017 01:25 am by John Alan »

Offline guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7461
  • Germany
  • Liked: 2350
  • Likes Given: 2976
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #105 on: 12/29/2017 12:18 am »
I'm thinking a large diameter lunar or martian habitation module might be more easily constructed on earth and transported from there rather than be constructed on site, avoiding potential problems with moon dust, or at least for initial habitation modules to be used while gaining experience with constructing things on site.

You can use a BFS fully equipped for that purpose. It is not that expensive.

For lunar habitation, I suspect they'll need to go underground to avoid radiation.  Same with Mars.

In fact, Gwynne mentioned this at Stanford:
Quote from: Gwynne Shotwell
SpaceX is focused on the transportation part of the Mars problem, but people need somewhere to go once they arrive. I don't think it's an accident that Elon started the Boring Company, tunnels will be very important in the first steps of living on Mars, before we build domes and terraform.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/37659376821

You are correct for long term habitats. But this was talk about initial setup for the first crews. Elon Musk mentioned BFS as first habitat on Mars. Sending one unmanned to the moon equipped with some shielding is not that hard.

Offline rockets4life97

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 803
  • Liked: 539
  • Likes Given: 367
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #106 on: 12/29/2017 03:23 pm »
If SpaceX chooses to use 39A as the first launch pad, how soon would they need to start the transformation?

Offline Patchouli

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4490
  • Liked: 254
  • Likes Given: 457
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #107 on: 12/29/2017 06:35 pm »
I wonder if they should have went with an Apollo style clean pad design for 39A to allow use of different LVs.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2017 06:39 pm by Patchouli »

Offline John Alan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 958
  • Central IL - USA - Earth
    • Home of the ThreadRipper Cadillac
  • Liked: 721
  • Likes Given: 2735
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #108 on: 12/29/2017 07:23 pm »
There is always the chance that SLS is canceled after N launches and 39B is put up for lease...  ;)

Not holding my breath on that option... but one that IS out there...  :P

My opinion, is SpaceX will NOT mess with 39A as long as the NASA manned D2 program and FH is operational...
BFR/BFS full stack has to go somewhere else on the East Coast... and on solid ground...  ;)

Offline rsdavis9

There is always the chance that SLS is canceled after N launches and 39B is put up for lease...  ;)

Not holding my breath on that option... but one that IS out there...  :P

My opinion, is SpaceX will NOT mess with 39A as long as the NASA manned D2 program and FH is operational...
BFR/BFS full stack has to go somewhere else on the East Coast... and on solid ground...  ;)

why the east coast?
Vandenburg should have better launch azimuths for starlink.
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
Same engines. Design once. Same vehicle. Design once. Reusable. Build once.

Offline Lars-J

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6826
  • California
  • Liked: 8540
  • Likes Given: 5487
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #110 on: 12/29/2017 07:41 pm »
There is always the chance that SLS is canceled after N launches and 39B is put up for lease...  ;)

Not holding my breath on that option... but one that IS out there...  :P

My opinion, is SpaceX will NOT mess with 39A as long as the NASA manned D2 program and FH is operational...
BFR/BFS full stack has to go somewhere else on the East Coast... and on solid ground...  ;)

why the east coast?
Vandenburg should have better launch azimuths for starlink.

Only the very highest inclinations need to be launched from VandenbErg. The vast majority of satellites for Starlink can be launched from Florida.

Offline John Alan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 958
  • Central IL - USA - Earth
    • Home of the ThreadRipper Cadillac
  • Liked: 721
  • Likes Given: 2735
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #111 on: 12/29/2017 07:50 pm »
There is always the chance that SLS is canceled after N launches and 39B is put up for lease...  ;)

Not holding my breath on that option... but one that IS out there...  :P

My opinion, is SpaceX will NOT mess with 39A as long as the NASA manned D2 program and FH is operational...
BFR/BFS full stack has to go somewhere else on the East Coast... and on solid ground...  ;)

why the east coast?
Vandenburg should have better launch azimuths for starlink.

I agree... New build pad on Vandenberg is still my top pick for one of the first operational full stack BFS/BFR pads...
Because StarLink is the primary first paying use of BFS/BFR... IMHO...

The comment up above (which I should have quoted I guess) was about maybe SpaceX should have gone clean pad with 39A... (AKA 39B like)...  which does raise the question...
SO... I answered that question... No, unless... a long shot plan plays out...

Really, SpaceX needs to stop trying to save a buck or two with rebuilding stuff and just build TWO new pads going forward... one on each coast where they KNOW they can get launch licenses...

BUT... don't commit to that, until they do testing and verify by doing R&D flights in BC, Tx

In summary...
Design a green field pad design adaptable to all three places in the US...
Partially built out the first in Tx just enough to get your BFR booster launch mount over the trench for testing.
Assuming all goes well in Tx on R&D... commit to build the other two on the coasts...
If the EIS redo and other nanny forces squash launching full up BFR/BFS from Tx on land there...
So be it... keep the dishes and other stuff... mothball the rest...
My guess is faced with that prospect... the good folks of Tx will find a way to make it work out on land right where it sits...
The loss of taxes and tourism dollars will, in the long run, overcome the d--- turtles and other nanny state worries that this country seems to be fixated on as of late...

IMHO...  ;)
« Last Edit: 12/29/2017 08:56 pm by John Alan »

Offline Lars-J

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6826
  • California
  • Liked: 8540
  • Likes Given: 5487
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #112 on: 12/29/2017 07:56 pm »
BTW... It is Vandenberg, Not Vandenburg.  Just trying to nip this in the bud before it spreads to far, and the wrath of Jim descends on you. ;)
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandenberg_Air_Force_Base

Offline MickQ

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1028
  • Atherton, Australia.
  • Liked: 276
  • Likes Given: 772
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #113 on: 12/29/2017 10:31 pm »
Any chance that the never built Pad 39C might be constructed ?

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13506
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11905
  • Likes Given: 11211
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #114 on: 12/29/2017 10:40 pm »
I too don't see a 12m version in the cards. My expectation is that the next version after the 9m will be FAR larger than 12m. Capable of carrying thousands of tonnes of freight or thousands of passengers. But that version won't even be started till the late 2020s or (more likely) 2030s or 2040s...

Yep. Think of the BFR/BFS as "small" supporting vehicles carrying stuff and people to the real future Mars Colonial Transport to and from various destinations in the Solar system.

The question is whether SpaceX will build something bigger than a Sea Dragon or assemble something in orbit as the future Mars Colonial Transport.

Think you can send up a 16 meter diameter vehicle component on the BFR with a new upper stage to LEO.  ;D


I think we'll see cyclers but that's not what I meant. I am thinking something a lot larger than a Sea Dragon that is a cargo/people hauler from Earth's surface to LEO.

But that's off topic for this thread.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Patchouli

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4490
  • Liked: 254
  • Likes Given: 457
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #115 on: 12/29/2017 11:10 pm »
Any chance that the never built Pad 39C might be constructed ?

There is a pad 39C now but it's for small vehicles.
https://kscpartnerships.ksc.nasa.gov/Partnering-Opportunities/Capabilities-and-Testing/Physical-Assets/Launch-Pad-39C

The original proposed site for 39C is still unused but would require a lot of work as nothing was ever built not even roads.

But there may be space for a new pad between LC-40 and LC-37 though ULA may be happy with something like BFR being tested near one of their pads which would be understandable.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2017 11:12 pm by Patchouli »

Offline Dalhousie

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2823
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 1328
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #116 on: 12/29/2017 11:13 pm »
There is always the chance that SLS is canceled after N launches and 39B is put up for lease...  ;)

A far bigger chance that BFR will be cancelled before it even flies.....
Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Offline meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16297
  • N. California
  • Liked: 16618
  • Likes Given: 1467
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #117 on: 12/29/2017 11:17 pm »
Lots of discussion about building something larger than BFR.

Is there any basis for this, or is it purely speculation?

Again, as I understand it, the 12m ITS design was scrapped in favor of the 9m BFR design.

Has SpaceX mentioned anything about building something larger than the 9m BFR since September?
Musk said they "chickened out" of the 12 m.

He didn't say "9 m is better".

They figured 12 m was too big a step, and 9 m is certainly good enough to begin with, so settled for 9.

They will still want something bigger for Mars, but it might be >12 m when they do. 15 m would be nice...

Give them a couple of years though...
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline MickQ

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1028
  • Atherton, Australia.
  • Liked: 276
  • Likes Given: 772
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #118 on: 12/29/2017 11:50 pm »
Any chance that the never built Pad 39C might be constructed ?

There is a pad 39C now but it's for small vehicles.
https://kscpartnerships.ksc.nasa.gov/Partnering-Opportunities/Capabilities-and-Testing/Physical-Assets/Launch-Pad-39C

The original proposed site for 39C is still unused but would require a lot of work as nothing was ever built not even roads.

But there may be space for a new pad between LC-40 and LC-37 though ULA may be happy with something like BFR being tested near one of their pads which would be understandable.

With the size of this, and possible future vehicles, and the proposed launch cadence over the next decades it seems to me to be the time to seriously look at a new, purpose built area with maybe multiple pads on the same site.  Call it LC-50 A/B/C....

Offline Bob Shaw

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1465
  • Liked: 747
  • Likes Given: 681
Re: Where will BFR launch from first? and When will that be?
« Reply #119 on: 12/30/2017 12:13 am »
LC 39-C, and call the BFR 'Neptune' - Arthur would be proud!

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0