Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 286193 times)

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #900 on: 11/29/2022 01:47 pm »
Did we just note the 1 launch/week milestone for 2022?

That has been the case since the summer.
SpaceX has actually exceeded launching every six days for the last ten or so missions before this most recent hiatus.

edit: When the red line in the graph in this post exceeds 52 (wks/yr=365/7) the pace of the last ten flights exceeds one per week.  Early enough in the year or long enough and it applies to the whole year. 
When it exceeds 61 (365/6) the pace surpasses a launch every six days.
I know, I meant 52 in, so the yearly total has surpassed the 1/week benchmark even if two hurricanes and an earthquake hit tomorrow...

I'm curious how they'll surpass that next year without another barge.  More RTLS doesn't seem productive for Starlinks.
Maybe using the brute method of launching more Starlinks in a longer payload fairing on the Falcon Heavy with RTLS of all three boosters. SpaceX will need to paved another pad at landing zone 1 or somewhere else on the Space Coast.

Regardless SpaceX will need to consider additional down range landing platforms to keep up the launch cadence in case of maintenance or landing mishaps causing landing platform non-availability.

Maybe just send an ASDS a very short distance off shore

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #901 on: 11/29/2022 08:40 pm »
Maybe just send an ASDS a very short distance off shore

Unload at Jacksonville for NE launches, so put horizontal and transport back for refurbishment on some other ship/road transport to reduce ASDS travel time?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #902 on: 11/29/2022 09:09 pm »
Did we just note the 1 launch/week milestone for 2022?

That has been the case since the summer.
SpaceX has actually exceeded launching every six days for the last ten or so missions before this most recent hiatus.

edit: When the red line in the graph in this post exceeds 52 (wks/yr=365/7) the pace of the last ten flights exceeds one per week.  Early enough in the year or long enough and it applies to the whole year. 
When it exceeds 61 (365/6) the pace surpasses a launch every six days.
I know, I meant 52 in, so the yearly total has surpassed the 1/week benchmark even if two hurricanes and an earthquake hit tomorrow...

I'm curious how they'll surpass that next year without another barge.  More RTLS doesn't seem productive for Starlinks.
Maybe using the brute method of launching more Starlinks in a longer payload fairing on the Falcon Heavy with RTLS of all three boosters. SpaceX will need to paved another pad at landing zone 1 or somewhere else on the Space Coast.

Regardless SpaceX will need to consider additional down range landing platforms to keep up the launch cadence in case of maintenance or landing mishaps causing landing platform non-availability.
They would just park ASDS just offshore and use the two pads at the LZ for the boosters.

SpaceX may launch some F9 sized V2s on Falcon in a crunch...but true V2 and SS/SH are really tied together at this point.  Both are on the path of orbit or bust because there is nothing to launch the V2 in the quantities required without SS/SH.

Without Starlink needs...they have no need for the current cadence so I don't think they need anything additional at this point as hopefully soon....it would be wasted money that would be better spent spinning up SS/SH flights/pads.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #903 on: 11/30/2022 06:33 am »
Did we just note the 1 launch/week milestone for 2022?

That has been the case since the summer.
SpaceX has actually exceeded launching every six days for the last ten or so missions before this most recent hiatus.

edit: When the red line in the graph in this post exceeds 52 (wks/yr=365/7) the pace of the last ten flights exceeds one per week.  Early enough in the year or long enough and it applies to the whole year. 
When it exceeds 61 (365/6) the pace surpasses a launch every six days.
I know, I meant 52 in, so the yearly total has surpassed the 1/week benchmark even if two hurricanes and an earthquake hit tomorrow...

I'm curious how they'll surpass that next year without another barge.  More RTLS doesn't seem productive for Starlinks.
Maybe using the brute method of launching more Starlinks in a longer payload fairing on the Falcon Heavy with RTLS of all three boosters. SpaceX will need to paved another pad at landing zone 1 or somewhere else on the Space Coast.

Regardless SpaceX will need to consider additional down range landing platforms to keep up the launch cadence in case of maintenance or landing mishaps causing landing platform non-availability.

Maybe just send an ASDS a very short distance off shore
Using an ASDS means that some other launch will have to wait for ASDS availability. The idea of recovering all three boosters of a Falcon Heavy at landing zone 1 is to allow some other launch to be able to land down range.

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #904 on: 11/30/2022 01:24 pm »
Did we just note the 1 launch/week milestone for 2022?

That has been the case since the summer.
SpaceX has actually exceeded launching every six days for the last ten or so missions before this most recent hiatus.

edit: When the red line in the graph in this post exceeds 52 (wks/yr=365/7) the pace of the last ten flights exceeds one per week.  Early enough in the year or long enough and it applies to the whole year. 
When it exceeds 61 (365/6) the pace surpasses a launch every six days.
I know, I meant 52 in, so the yearly total has surpassed the 1/week benchmark even if two hurricanes and an earthquake hit tomorrow...

I'm curious how they'll surpass that next year without another barge.  More RTLS doesn't seem productive for Starlinks.
Maybe using the brute method of launching more Starlinks in a longer payload fairing on the Falcon Heavy with RTLS of all three boosters. SpaceX will need to paved another pad at landing zone 1 or somewhere else on the Space Coast.

Regardless SpaceX will need to consider additional down range landing platforms to keep up the launch cadence in case of maintenance or landing mishaps causing landing platform non-availability.

Maybe just send an ASDS a very short distance off shore
Using an ASDS means that some other launch will have to wait for ASDS availability. The idea of recovering all three boosters of a Falcon Heavy at landing zone 1 is to allow some other launch to be able to land down range.

It would be just one of their two east coast drone ships, and short distance offshore would be a lot less travel time.  Also, the idea that they would build a third landing pad for something that happens so infrequently doesn't seem like a SpaceX thing to do

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #905 on: 12/01/2022 06:00 pm »
SFN SpaceX rocket trouble postpones Japanese moon lander launch, November 30
Quote
The company plans as many as eight Falcon 9 rocket launches in December, a tally that assumes the mission with ispace’s Hakuto-R moon lander is able to fly soon. SpaceX has two launches scheduled from Florida next week — one with the next batch of Starlink internet satellites and another with 40 spacecraft for OneWeb’s broadband constellation.

It was not immediately clear what, if any, impact the Hakuto-R launch delay might have on other Falcon 9 missions scheduled for December.

Dec 6               KSC LC-39A       OneWeb Fl 15
Dec 7              CCSFS SLC-40    HAKUTO-R
Dec 13 late    CCSFS SLC-40   O3b mPower 1 and 2
Dec 15 (UTC) Vand SLC-4E      SWOT
Mid Dec?        KSC LC-39A?     Starlink 4-37
Mid Dec          CCSFS SLC-40   Transporter-6
Dec 29            Vand SLC-4E      EROS C3 #1
Dec?                CCSFS SLC-40   Starlink 2-2

<There appears to be schedule room for a mid December launch from LC-39A, before preparations for the January Falcon Heavy launch(es) and/or SpX-27.>

Edited
« Last Edit: 12/04/2022 09:14 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #906 on: 12/05/2022 11:07 pm »
New milestone:
At this time there are FIVE launches on the manifest with dates and times!

2022-11-12  11:06/-5     F9   1051-14   X   Galaxy 31/32    GTO              C-40   .   .
2022-11-16*19:22/-8     F9          .       S   Starlink 2-4       LEO      ~16k   V     .   .
2022-11-17    6:33/-5     F9          .       .    Eutelsat 10B      GTO         .   C-40   .   .
2022-11-21  16:15/-5     F9          .       S   CRS2 SpX-26     LEO          .   C-39A     .   
2022-11-22    4:17/-5     F9          .       L   HAKUTO-R         TLI           .   C-40   .   .

(Most of these are from the Manifest but some data is taken from the mission threads.)

At the other extreme no dates from Florida:

Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a batch of OneWeb satellites from pad 39A on December TBD around 5-6 p.m. EST. Sunset is 5:25 p.m. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the first HAKUTO-R lunar lander for iSpace on December TBD at 2-3 a.m. EST. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch. A Falcon 9 will launch a pair of internet satellites for SES on December TBD, around 4 p.m. EDT. A Falcon 9 will launch the Transporter-6 smallsat rideshare mission on December TBD, in the daytime EST. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches. A Falcon 9 will launch a batch of OneWeb internet satellites on January TBD. And a Falcon Heavy from pad 39A will launch the USSF-67 mission for the U.S. Space Force on January TBD.

https://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #907 on: 12/09/2022 09:33 am »
The December/January SpaceX manifest, including some of my deductions and inferences.  I've marked these with question marks.

Launched in December:
Dec 8      KSC LC-39A       OneWeb Fl 15
Dec 11   CCSFS SLC-40   HAKUTO-R
Dec 16   Vand SLC-4E      SWOT
Dec 16   CCSFS SLC-40   O3b mPower 1 and 2
Dec 17   KSC LC-39A       Starlink 4-37
Dec 28   CCSFS SLC-40   Starlink 5-1
Dec 30   Vand SLC-4E      EROS C3 #1

When are the FAA cutout days to prevent orbital launches from delaying holiday air travel?

Scheduled for January:
Jan 3 late? Dec 27 2             CCSFS SLC-40   Transporter-6
Early Jan                                 CCSFS SLC-40    OneWeb Fl 16
~Jan 10                                   KSC LC-39A       USSF-67
Jan 18                                      CCSFS SLC-40   GPS III-6
NET mid Jan?                         Vand SLC-4E      Starlink 2-4 (or 1st SDA launch)
Late Jan? 1st days? early?   CCSFS SLC-40   Starlink 2-2
NET late Jan?                         Vand SLC-4E      Starlink 2-6
Jan                                          CCSFS SLC-40?   O3b mPower 3 and 4
NET late Jan?                        Vand SLC-4E       SARah 2 and 3
Jan                                          CCSFS SLC-40     WorldView Legion 1 and 2

I'm sure some of the January launches listed above will be further delayed as events develop.  There are more launches than available schedule slots.

Also, I think LC-39A is fully booked in January.

Later than January?
2023                                CCSFS SLC-40   Starlink 4-24
NET Feb NET late Jan   KSC LC-39A      SpX-27 (or ViaSat-3 Americas)
Mar NET late Jan?         Vand SLC-4E     SDA TT&L Tranche 0 Fl 1 (or Starlink 2-4)
NET Mar late Jan?         KSC LC-39A       ViaSat-3 Americas (or SpX-27)

If a launch for an external customer is delayed, then a Starlink launch can take its place.

Extensively edited
« Last Edit: 01/04/2023 09:37 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #908 on: 12/09/2022 09:47 am »
Some of the December/January SpaceX manifest

Launched in December:
Dec 8   KSC LC-39A   OneWeb Fl 15

Scheduled for December:
Dec 11           CCSFS SLC-40   HAKUTO-R
Dec 15           Vand SLC-4E      SWOT
Dec 16           CCSFS SLC-40   O3b mPower 1 and 2
NET Dec 17   KSC LC-39A       Starlink 4-37
Late Dec        CCSFS SLC-40   Transporter-6
Dec 29           Vand SLC-4E      EROS C3 #1

When are the FAA cutout days to prevent orbital launches from delaying holiday air travel?

Scheduled for January:
Jan 1st days?   CCSFS SLC-40   Starlink 2-2
~Jan 10             KSC LC-39A        USSF-67
Jan 18               CCSFS SLC-40   GPS III-6
NET mid Jan?   Vand SLC-4E      Starlink 2-4
NET mid Jan?   Vand SLC-4E      SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 0 Fl 1
NET late Jan?   KSC LC-39A        SpX-27

What about ViaSat-3?
Mission Patch Designer

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #909 on: 12/09/2022 03:42 pm »
Some of the December/January SpaceX manifest

Launched in December:
Dec 8   KSC LC-39A   OneWeb Fl 15

Scheduled for December:
Dec 11           CCSFS SLC-40   HAKUTO-R
Dec 15           Vand SLC-4E      SWOT
Dec 16           CCSFS SLC-40   O3b mPower 1 and 2
NET Dec 17   KSC LC-39A       Starlink 4-37
Late Dec        CCSFS SLC-40   Transporter-6
Dec 29           Vand SLC-4E      EROS C3 #1

When are the FAA cutout days to prevent orbital launches from delaying holiday air travel?

Scheduled for January:
Jan 1st days?   CCSFS SLC-40   Starlink 2-2
~Jan 10             KSC LC-39A        USSF-67
Jan 18               CCSFS SLC-40   GPS III-6
NET mid Jan?   Vand SLC-4E      Starlink 2-4
NET mid Jan?   Vand SLC-4E      SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 0 Fl 1
NET late Jan?   KSC LC-39A        SpX-27

What about ViaSat-3?

And Starlink 5-1, O3b mPower 3-4

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #910 on: 12/09/2022 10:02 pm »
Some of the December/January SpaceX manifest
<snip >
What about ViaSat-3?
And Starlink 5-1, O3b mPower 3-4
I have made further edits to my post!
« Last Edit: 12/09/2022 10:03 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #911 on: 12/12/2022 06:28 pm »

New milestone:
At this time there are FIVE launches on the manifest with dates and times!

2022-11-12  11:06/-5     F9   1051-14   X   Galaxy 31/32    GTO              C-40   .   .
2022-11-16*19:22/-8     F9          .       S   Starlink 2-4       LEO      ~16k   V     .   .
2022-11-17    6:33/-5     F9          .       .    Eutelsat 10B      GTO         .   C-40   .   .
2022-11-21  16:15/-5     F9          .       S   CRS2 SpX-26     LEO          .   C-39A     .   
2022-11-22    4:17/-5     F9          .       L   HAKUTO-R         TLI           .   C-40   .   .


Matched - 5 dates and times known. But oddly 0 boosters known for these next 5 flights. (There could be a starlink flight (2-2?) in Dec after transporter-6 on 22nd but before EROS-C3 on 29th but I am thinking unlikely to be less than 7 days later counting Christmas day.)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #912 on: 12/15/2022 03:03 am »
[SWOT] Delayed to Fri Dec 16 at the same time. https://twitter.com/NASA/status/1603225428231069696

That makes for THREE launches scheduled for one day. 
In fact, it is almost within a 10 hour period!
Even if one gets delayed the odds of a remarkable day are high.
« Last Edit: 12/15/2022 03:05 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #913 on: 12/15/2022 05:20 am »
That makes for THREE launches scheduled for one day. 

Three for SpaceX plus one Electron from RocketLab and one CZ-11 from China makes five. Time for another launchapalooza! Hopefully this time it doesn't turn into another scrubapalooza. :-)

UTC
06:35 SJ2013
11:46 SWOT
21:21 O3b mPOWER 1/2
21:54 Starlink v1.5 Group 4-37
23:00 Hawk 6A/6B/6C
« Last Edit: 12/15/2022 05:32 am by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #914 on: 12/15/2022 02:25 pm »
If schedule holds up, there will be three Falcon 9 launches on Friday, December 16. First one from VSFB in California and the next two from CCSFB and KSC less than an hour apart. California launch is at 6:46 am Eastern time with the Florida launches at 4:21 and 4:54 pm Eastern time.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #915 on: 12/15/2022 08:30 pm »
https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1603502221500489732

Quote
The commander of the Space Force's 1st Range Operations Squadron told me today his team could hypothetically support two launches about 20 minutes apart. That's about the time required to monitor one rocket until it goes over the horizon, then configure for the next launch.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #916 on: 12/16/2022 04:40 am »
Three for SpaceX plus one Electron from RocketLab and one CZ-11 from China makes five. Time for another launchapalooza! Hopefully this time it doesn't turn into another scrubapalooza. :-)

The Electron and Starlink launches have been delayed, so now down to three launches.

UTC
06:35 SJ2013
11:46 SWOT
21:21 O3b mPOWER 1/2
« Last Edit: 12/16/2022 04:45 am by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #917 on: 12/19/2022 09:08 pm »
NextSpaceFlight, updated December 19:
New launch Starlink 6-1
NET February 2023
Kennedy LC-39A or Canaveral SLC-40
Payload unknown number of Starlink v2.0 satellites 🛰
« Last Edit: 12/19/2022 09:41 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #918 on: 12/19/2022 09:57 pm »
With Starlink Group 5 launches scheduled to start launching by the end of 2022, does that mean there's no more Starlink Group 4 launches? We've yet to see Starlinks 4-24, 4-28, 4-30, 4-32, and 4-33
Launches Seen: Atlas-V OA-7,

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #919 on: 12/20/2022 01:47 am »
With Starlink Group 5 launches scheduled to start launching by the end of 2022, does that mean there's no more Starlink Group 4 launches? We've yet to see Starlinks 4-24, 4-28, 4-30, 4-32, and 4-33

Per Jonathan McDowell, there appear to be ~1560 of 1584 planned Group 4 satellites working in orbit after 4-37. For all intents and purposes, Group 4 is probably done with dedicated launches until enough satellites fail that another full launch is warranted.

https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html

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