Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 262029 times)

Offline Hog

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2609
  • Woodstock
  • Liked: 1503
  • Likes Given: 5519
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #620 on: 03/23/2022 01:55 pm »
[...]
Quote
Notable: Important space officials in Germany say the best course for Europe, in the near term, would be to move six stranded Galileo satellites, which had been due to fly on Soyuz, to three Falcon 9 rockets.

Considering the likely fate of Sentinel 1-B, Sentinel 1-C and 1-D launch may be moved up, necessitating a SpaceX launch as well...

I'm wondering if the current circumstances won't be used by many users to "Oh! Regrettably we are forced to launch on F9", which was probably what they would have chosen had they be free to do so.
Probably, but you can't blame a country/area for wanting to better their own interests.  These forums and the world would be completely different if SX was a European company.
Paul

Offline kevin-rf

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8684
  • Overlooking the path Mary's little Lamb took..
  • Liked: 1193
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #621 on: 03/25/2022 12:15 am »
At this rate, one has to wonder if SpaceX needs yet another east coast Falcon 9 pad....
If you're happy and you know it,
It's your med's!

Offline Tomness

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 561
  • Into the abyss will I run
  • Liked: 246
  • Likes Given: 711
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #622 on: 03/25/2022 12:38 am »
At this rate, one has to wonder if SpaceX needs yet another east coast Falcon 9 pad....

That's what Boca Chica/StarBase was for. I see if Starship goes orbital and the tanker is ready after that. Then they will move Starlink V2 to Starship freeing up F9/FH.

Offline wannamoonbase

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4824
  • Denver, CO
    • U.S. Metric Association
  • Liked: 2558
  • Likes Given: 3259
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #623 on: 03/25/2022 01:05 pm »
At this rate, one has to wonder if SpaceX needs yet another east coast Falcon 9 pad....

That's what Boca Chica/StarBase was for. I see if Starship goes orbital and the tanker is ready after that. Then they will move Starlink V2 to Starship freeing up F9/FH.

There is likely time for this, but Starlink will need access to the inclinations available from the coasts.  Boca made sense for GEO launches but Starship could do a whole years worth in a single flight.

Launching and filling the Tanker version from Boca makes sense.  Then it could be accessed by Boca and KSC.
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #624 on: 03/27/2022 03:36 am »
Why has there been no FCC filings for Starlink 4-13 and Starlink 4-15? Is it because they have been planned from VAB and the launches have been planned for much later into the future?

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8395
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 4968
  • Likes Given: 44921
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #625 on: 03/28/2022 05:13 am »
SFN Launch Schedule update, March 25 (one of many):
Starlink 4-15 launches in May 2022 from either Kennedy LC-39A or Cape Canaveral SFS SLC-40, with ASDS landing.

However, we already have Starlink 4-16 scheduled for NET April 23.
0527-EX-ST-2022
Mission 1778 Starlink Group 4-16 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39a at KSC
North  32  37  20   West  75  49  44   Autonomous Drone Ship
« Last Edit: 04/01/2022 02:33 am by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.)
My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!"

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8395
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 4968
  • Likes Given: 44921
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #626 on: 03/28/2022 05:29 am »
It's Nilesat-301.
0450-EX-ST-2022, Mission 1581   NET Apr. 22
From Florida
ASDS  North  27  46  48  West  73  38  10
With landing at that place it could be any GTO sat or even the O3b mPOWER mission 1 which is supposedly not expendable and needs low inclination so a launch straight out to the east would also be needed.
Nilesat-301, SES-22, and the first mPower launch are the only Falcon 9 launches that fit the bill for April/second annual quarter, according to our current NSF launch schedule.

The first two will be overseas deliveries from Thales Alenia, and the third will be delivered from Boeing.

If there are no corporate announcements, then watching for heavy cargo aircraft landing at one of the Space Coast airports would be an option.
« Last Edit: 03/28/2022 05:33 am by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.)
My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!"

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8395
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 4968
  • Likes Given: 44921
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #627 on: 03/29/2022 05:29 am »
Cross-post:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1508540042817376256

Quote
SpaceX Falcon 🚀 team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.)
My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!"

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8395
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 4968
  • Likes Given: 44921
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #628 on: 03/30/2022 12:24 am »
Cross-post:
The next several currently known LC-39A launches:
Crew Dragon Axiom-1  Falcon 9           April 6
Crew Dragon Crew-4    Falcon 9           April 19
<1 or 2 Starlink launches?>
Cargo Dragon SpX-25  Falcon 9           June 7
USSF-44                         Falcon Heavy  NET June
Psyche                           Falcon Heavy  August 1 (interplanetary launches generally have highest priority)
ViaSat-3 Americas       Falcon Heavy   NET August 15
Crew-5                           Falcon 9           September 1
IM-1 (Nova-C)               Falcon 9           Q3
USSF-52                        Falcon Heavy   October

Edited March 29
« Last Edit: 03/30/2022 12:25 am by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.)
My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!"

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6111
  • Liked: 4022
  • Likes Given: 3907
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #629 on: 03/31/2022 04:46 am »
Cross-post:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1508540042817376256
Quote
SpaceX Falcon 🚀 team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!
Wow
The NSF consensus over in the annual poll was “only” 40 launches in 2022.
We have been overly optimistic for the past few years, but Musk is now more optimistic than we are!
With “only” 11 launches in Q1, SpaceX better get crackin’!
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline DanClemmensen

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2803
  • California
  • Liked: 2201
  • Likes Given: 847
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #630 on: 03/31/2022 02:52 pm »
Cross-post:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1508540042817376256
Quote
SpaceX Falcon 🚀 team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!
Wow
The NSF consensus over in the annual poll was “only” 40 launches in 2022.
We have been overly optimistic for the past few years, but Musk is now more optimistic than we are!
With “only” 11 launches in Q1, SpaceX better get crackin’!
I think the only thing that might have kept F9 launches below 50 in 2022 would have been the beginning of Starship operations before about July 2022.

Offline wannamoonbase

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4824
  • Denver, CO
    • U.S. Metric Association
  • Liked: 2558
  • Likes Given: 3259
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #631 on: 03/31/2022 06:04 pm »
Cross-post:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1508540042817376256
Quote
SpaceX Falcon 🚀 team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!
Wow
The NSF consensus over in the annual poll was “only” 40 launches in 2022.
We have been overly optimistic for the past few years, but Musk is now more optimistic than we are!
With “only” 11 launches in Q1, SpaceX better get crackin’!
I think the only thing that might have kept F9 launches below 50 in 2022 would have been the beginning of Starship operations before about July 2022.

I respectfully disagree.  Starlink is not going to contribute meaningfully until we know it can even fly successfully.

I think the biggest risk to keeping up the launch cadence is payloads being ready and summer weather in Florida at the launch and ASDS sites. 

Then the 3rd thing maybe how many second stages they can produce.
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #632 on: 04/13/2022 03:54 am »

0687-EX-ST-2022
SpaceX Mission 1636 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39A KSC, and the experimental recovery following the Falcon 9 launch.
Appears to be RTLS?

Most likely Transporter 5.
Rocket Enthusiast and Manager for Next Spaceflight.

Offline jpo234

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1928
  • Liked: 2110
  • Likes Given: 1792
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #633 on: 04/13/2022 01:32 pm »
Typo in the manifest. Currently it looks like this:
« Last Edit: 04/13/2022 01:33 pm by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9183
  • US
  • Liked: 11546
  • Likes Given: 5162
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #634 on: 04/13/2022 02:18 pm »
Typo in the manifest. Currently it looks like this:

dash, equals, they're close... (should be fixed now)

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8395
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 4968
  • Likes Given: 44921
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #635 on: 04/15/2022 03:31 am »
I wonder if SpaceX will have any "external customer" launches in May.  There are already 5 Starlink launches scheduled in May.

Starlink 4-13: Vandenberg
Starlink 4-15, 16, 17, 18: Florida
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.)
My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!"

Offline Josh_from_Canada

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #636 on: 04/15/2022 04:01 am »
I wonder if SpaceX will have any "external customer" launches in May.

Nilesat-301 is the only external customer that might have a chance of launching in May even though I'm a bit doubtful it launches before June
Launches Seen: Atlas-V OA-7,

Offline scr00chy

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1044
  • Czechia
    • ElonX.net
  • Liked: 1456
  • Likes Given: 1122
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #637 on: 04/15/2022 10:16 am »
I wonder if SpaceX will have any "external customer" launches in May.

Nilesat-301 is the only external customer that might have a chance of launching in May even though I'm a bit doubtful it launches before June

What about the first O3b mPOWER launch? That's currently scheduled for May AFAIK.

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8395
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 4968
  • Likes Given: 44921
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #638 on: 04/15/2022 07:53 pm »
I wonder if SpaceX will have any "external customer" launches in May.
Nilesat-301 is the only external customer that might have a chance of launching in May even though I'm a bit doubtful it launches before June
What about the first O3b mPOWER launch? That's currently scheduled for May AFAIK.
Exactly.  The Nilesat is coming by sea, and we have no news yet of departure or arrival.

The mPower satellites are likely coming by truck (although cargo plane is possible), and we have no news yet of departure or arrival.
« Last Edit: 04/15/2022 07:57 pm by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.)
My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!"

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8395
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 4968
  • Likes Given: 44921
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #639 on: 04/21/2022 12:30 pm »
I wonder if SpaceX will have any "external customer" launches in May.  There are already 5 Starlink launches scheduled in May.

Starlink 4-13: Vandenberg
Starlink 4-15, 16, 17, 18: Florida

Launch cadence--noting an apparent lesser usage of LC-39A in May (and maybe June, if USSF-44 is further delayed).  Starship construction work?

Also, it looks like there will be less Starlink launches midyear, as there are many launches for external customers scheduled.  Perhaps more Starlink launches from Vandenberg, at an increased rate?

Starlink 4-14: SLC-40, April 21

Crew-4: LC-39A, NET April 27 26

Starlink 4-16: SLC-40, late NET April 29

Starlink 4-15: LC-39A, (early) May 8

Starlink 4-13: SLC-4E, (early?) May

Starlink 4-17: SLC-40, May 8

Starlink 4-18: SLC-40, (late) mid May

Starlink 4-19(?): LC-39A/SLC-40/SLC-4E, NET late May

Transporter-5: SLC-40, June 1

SpX-25: LC-39A, June 7

Nilesat-301: SLC-40, June

USSF-44: LC-39A, Falcon Heavy, NET June

O3b mPower 1, 2, 3: SLC-40, NET June

SES-22: SLC-40, June/July

WorldView Legion Flight 1: SLC-40, July

SARah 1: SLC-4E, midyear

Edited
« Last Edit: 04/22/2022 11:24 pm by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.)
My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!"

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement SkyTale Software GmbH
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1