Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 262843 times)

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #560 on: 01/24/2022 07:53 am »
February 2022 launches (28 days):

Maximum 4 Florida Starlink launches?

NROL-87 + 1 Starlink launch from Vandenberg?
« Last Edit: 01/24/2022 07:56 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #561 on: 01/24/2022 09:47 am »
February 2022 launches (28 days):

Maximum 4 Florida Starlink launches?

NROL-87 + 1 Starlink launch from Vandenberg?
Maybe, although we will have to see the availability of the boosters.
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Offline Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #562 on: 01/24/2022 11:24 am »
February 2022 launches (28 days):

Maximum 4 Florida Starlink launches?

NROL-87 + 1 Starlink launch from Vandenberg?

Right now it's looking like only 2 Florida Starlinks (4-8 and 4-9)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #563 on: 01/26/2022 02:45 pm »
It's nice that the [FCC] filings now actually spell out the Starlink mission names.
« Last Edit: 03/04/2022 02:30 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #564 on: 01/27/2022 10:16 pm »
SpaceX planning to launch up to 52 missions in 2022
Quote
The impressive figure was given during a virtual meeting of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, or ASAP, which gives guidance to the space agency on how to maintain safety within its biggest programs. “NASA and SpaceX will have to be watchful during 2022 that they’re not victims of their success,” Sandy Magnus, a former NASA astronaut and member of the panel, said during the meeting. “There’s an ambitious 52-launch manifest for SpaceX over the course of the year. And that’s an incredible pace.”

I read that and hear Dana Carvey’s George Bush impression: “Wouldn’t be prudent!”
What about a launch provider that delays a launch for bad DOWN RANGE weather in the fairing recovery area, says “Go Fever” to you?
« Last Edit: 01/29/2022 08:35 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #565 on: 01/29/2022 09:16 pm »
Revised thoughts on the February SpaceX manifest:

Launch a maximum of four three Florida Starlink clusters, spread approximately evenly apart in February, alternating use of SLC-40 and LC-39A.

Edit Jan 31: Starlink 4-7 launch delayed to February 1.

Launch rate will be gated by ASDS availability. When JRTI returns to operation, launch rate can increase.

If the USSF-44 launch campaign takes custody of LC-39A, then that would slow the Starlink launch rate by limiting it to SLC-40 and Vandenberg.  But, I don't think the Space Force will launch that mission before Axiom-1 (March 31), Crew-4 (April 15), and SpX-25 (May 1).  I suspect LC-39A will be booked solid or near-solid by these three missions from mid March through early May.  There may be small "quickie-launch with no Static Fire for Starlink" windows, but I don't intimately know SpaceX operations.

NROL-87 and the possibly-named Starlink 4-11 launch from Vandenberg, February 2 and in the latter half of the month.

Total launches: Maximum of 6.



February 2022 launches (28 days):

Maximum 4 Florida Starlink launches?

NROL-87 + 1 Starlink launch from Vandenberg?

Right now it's looking like only 2 Florida Starlinks (4-8 and 4-9)

Three Florida Starlink launches authorized; add Starlink 4-10, NET February 25:
0155-EX-ST-2022  Another southeast trajectory Starlink from the Cape, NET late February

Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This application uses information from previous grant 1994-EX-ST-2021. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for Mission 1721 Starlink Group 4-10 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39a at KSC, and the experimental recovery operation following the Falcon 9 launch. Includes sub-orbital first stage, and orbital second stage.
« Last Edit: 02/03/2022 03:03 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #566 on: 02/03/2022 02:52 pm »
SpaceX planning to launch up to 52 missions in 2022
Quote
The impressive figure was given during a virtual meeting of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, or ASAP, which gives guidance to the space agency on how to maintain safety within its biggest programs. “NASA and SpaceX will have to be watchful during 2022 that they’re not victims of their success,” Sandy Magnus, a former NASA astronaut and member of the panel, said during the meeting. “There’s an ambitious 52-launch manifest for SpaceX over the course of the year. And that’s an incredible pace.”

I read that and hear Dana Carvey’s George Bush impression: “Wouldn’t be prudent!”
What about a launch provider that delays a launch for bad DOWN RANGE weather in the fairing recovery area, says “Go Fever” to you?

Like you mention, because of the range and weather making 52 launches will require Vandenberg to do as many as possible and to have vehicles stacked and waiting for the ASDS to get on station. 

A third east coast ASDS would go along way to opening up the number of possible flights.  Or improve the turnaround time with ASOG.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #568 on: 02/03/2022 06:52 pm »
B1053 was spotted outside Hangar X. Might be getting converted to a F9 booster as well?

https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/status/1489270438438084614
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #569 on: 02/03/2022 07:40 pm »
Cross-post; identity and modification discussion in the spotting thread, which is the location of the post.
Manifest discussion here.
https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/status/1489270438438084614
It seems that B1053 is out rolling somewhere at the Cape...
B1053 was spotted outside Hangar X. Might be getting converted to a F9 booster as well?
« Last Edit: 02/03/2022 07:59 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #570 on: 02/04/2022 02:58 am »
0155-EX-ST-2022  Another southeast trajectory Starlink from the Cape, NET late February

Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This application uses information from previous grant 1994-EX-ST-2021. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for Mission 1721 Starlink Group 4-10 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39a at KSC, and the experimental recovery operation following the Falcon 9 launch. Includes sub-orbital first stage, and orbital second stage.
why is " the experimental recovery operation " Saying experimental

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #571 on: 02/04/2022 03:06 am »
0155-EX-ST-2022  Another southeast trajectory Starlink from the Cape, NET late February

Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This application uses information from previous grant 1994-EX-ST-2021. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for Mission 1721 Starlink Group 4-10 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39a at KSC, and the experimental recovery operation following the Falcon 9 launch. Includes sub-orbital first stage, and orbital second stage.
why is " the experimental recovery operation " Saying experimental
While routine and operational every flight and landing is still an experiment. Every STS flight was considered experimental because you always gain data and learn things. Even operational flights are still flight tests. The scientific method is continuous.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #572 on: 02/08/2022 02:42 pm »
What’s up with the lack of clarity around the next F9 launches?

50 launches for the year surely requires every calendar month’s launches to be tentatively scheduled at least by the start of each month? Yet I see nothing confirmed after the end Jan/early Feb “burst” of launches.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #573 on: 02/08/2022 02:48 pm »
What’s up with the lack of clarity around the next F9 launches?

50 launches for the year surely requires every calendar month’s launches to be tentatively scheduled at least by the start of each month? Yet I see nothing confirmed after the end Jan/early Feb “burst” of launches.

Starlink 4-8 is being reported as Feb. 20th.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #574 on: 02/08/2022 02:52 pm »
What’s up with the lack of clarity around the next F9 launches?

50 launches for the year surely requires every calendar month’s launches to be tentatively scheduled at least by the start of each month? Yet I see nothing confirmed after the end Jan/early Feb “burst” of launches.

Starlink 4-8 is being reported as Feb. 20th.

It is estimated that by February we will have two Starlink missions from Florida (one from each pad) and one from California.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #575 on: 02/09/2022 03:07 pm »
Worth noting that in the likely scenario USSF-44 is not ready to launch before mid march, it will probably be delayed to late Q2/early Q3 due to pad constraints. LC-39A is packed with launches until at least May (AX-1 on March 30th, Crew-4 on April 15th, and CRS-25 on May 1st).
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #576 on: 02/09/2022 04:13 pm »
Worth noting that in the likely scenario USSF-44 is not ready to launch before mid march, it will probably be delayed to late Q2/early Q3 due to pad constraints. LC-39A is packed with launches until at least May (AX-1 on March 30th, Crew-4 on April 15th, and CRS-25 on May 1st).

CRS-25 depends on OFT-2

Offline kdhilliard

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #577 on: 02/09/2022 05:04 pm »
Worth noting that in the likely scenario USSF-44 is not ready to launch before mid march, it will probably be delayed to late Q2/early Q3 due to pad constraints. LC-39A is packed with launches until at least May (AX-1 on March 30th, Crew-4 on April 15th, and CRS-25 on May 1st).
CRS-25 depends on OFT-2

How is that?

OFT-2 is reportedly targeting May 20 (per Bill Harwood's sources) and we have CRS-25 penciled in for May 1 (per SFN's Stephen Clark).  Are you suggesting that CRS-25 can only fly after OFT-2?

Editing to add:
All four Cargo Dragon 2 flight to date have been from LC-39A because it offers easy access for late cargo loading,right?  But is that a requirement, of is there an option to fly from SLC-40 with less convenient late loading?
« Last Edit: 02/09/2022 05:09 pm by kdhilliard »

Offline ajmarco

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #578 on: 02/09/2022 05:09 pm »

CRS-25 depends on OFT-2

How is that?

OFT-2 is reportedly targeting May 20 (per Bill Harwood's sources) and we have CRS-25 penciled in for May 1 (per SFN's Stephen Clark).  Are you suggesting that CRS-25 can only fly after OFT-2?

CRS-25 will be using the same docking port as OFT-2. Dragon is usually docked to the ISS for around 30 days. Assuming all dates hold and no weather issues for the return of CRS-25, it would only be docked for about 17 days. That is most likely not enough time for the unloading and loading of supplies to satisfy NASA's requirements.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #579 on: 02/09/2022 05:35 pm »
All four Cargo Dragon 2 flight to date have been from LC-39A because it offers easy access for late cargo loading,right?  But is that a requirement, of is there an option to fly from SLC-40 with less convenient late loading?

I recall someone from SpaceX or NASA saying during one of the press conferences that launching Cargo Dragon 2 from SLC-40 is possible, but LC-39A is preferable due to the easier late-loading, as you mentioned.

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