SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[Robotbeat]

They should be able to launch an uncrewed crew Dragon from LC-40 no problem. Crewed Dargon would need a newly fabricated crew access arm, escape Zipline, etc.

[Tomness]

They should be able to launch an uncrewed crew Dragon from LC-40 no problem. Crewed Dargon would need a newly fabricated crew access arm, escape Zipline, etc.

As quickly they have the launch table at Boca Chica and ULA built theirs for Starliner. Should be fairly quickly if they want it.

[Robotbeat]

I kind of think it wouldn't be a terrible idea to have plans for it ready to go before the first Starship launch at LC-39A.

[Comga]

I have been tracking the pace of Falcon launches for the decade of their flights.
The original metric was the number of flights in the preceding 12 months.
An additional metric was added: The pace of the last ten launches.
Simple math. Take the interval between the last ten launches and divide one tenth of that into a year.
The recent salvo forced the graph to be rescaled, as it approached 60 flights per year.

[realnouns]

Per my projections, 58, 60, 61, 69, 52 on EC + 51, 71 on WC, could all be ready for reuse sometime in March.  Plus 49, 63, and all the FH hardware.  Things could get busy again, just in time for JRTI's return. 

[zubenelgenubi]

Polar Starlink?  Start date is about 1 month early for Transporter-4.

0310-EX-ST-2022 NET late March [March 23]

This application uses information from previous grant 1845-EX-ST-2021. There is a Stage 1/Stage 2 frequency swap to mitigate interference. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for SpaceX Mission 1690 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39A KSC, and the experimental recovery following the Falcon 9 launch. Includes sub-orbital first stage, and orbital second stage. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. All downrange Earth stations are receive-only. All operations are pre-coordinated with the Launch Range. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.

Droneship position looks like SSO:   North  23  56  25   West  79  13  16

[zubenelgenubi]

If I recall correctly, there has been an possibility that Eutelsat would launch one or more geocomm satellites aboard one or more Falcon 9s this or next year.

In sorting out the payload duos for the final Ariane 5 launches, etc., Salo found this article.

[dated March 2, 2021]
https://aircosmosinternational.com/article/the-first-assembled-eurostar-neo-satellite-3106

Hotbird 13F, like its twin Hotbird 13G, is scheduled for launch next year [2022] using an Ariane 64 launcher from the Guyana Space Center.

It's a year old, but if it was and is true, then all of these Eutelsat satellites have Ariane 5 or 6 rides.

[dated February 17]
https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/22/02/b25681068/eutelsat-communications-first-half-2021-22-results

FLEET DEPLOYMENT

Nominal deployment programme

Compared to the last quarterly update in October 2021, the entry into service of KONNECT VHTS has been delayed from the first half to the second half of calendar 2023. Furthermore, while still expected within the H1 2023 window, the entry into service of the EUTELSAT 10B satellite has been delayed versus our previous expectations. This reflects the impact of both manufacturing delays and their knock-on effects, including pairing difficulties, related to launch rescheduling, in the context of global Covid crisis.

All other data remains unchanged.

[Conexion Espacial]

0325-EX-ST-2022

Vandy RTLS, NET April

This application uses information from previous grant 1981-EX-ST-2021. There is a Stage1TX2/Stage2TX1 frequency swap for this mission to mitigate interference. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for SpaceX Mission 1523 from SLC-4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base. The application includes sub-orbital first stage and orbital second stage. Trajectory data shall be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. All downrange Earth stations are receive-only. The recovery portion is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the command uplink from an onshore station at VSFB, and 2) experimental post landing first-stage uplink testing from the onshore station at VSFB. All operations are pre-coordinated with the Launch Range.

Probably NROL-85?

[soltasto]

0325-EX-ST-2022

Vandy RTLS, NET April

This application uses information from previous grant 1981-EX-ST-2021. There is a Stage1TX2/Stage2TX1 frequency swap for this mission to mitigate interference. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for SpaceX Mission 1523 from SLC-4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base. The application includes sub-orbital first stage and orbital second stage. Trajectory data shall be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. All downrange Earth stations are receive-only. The recovery portion is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the command uplink from an onshore station at VSFB, and 2) experimental post landing first-stage uplink testing from the onshore station at VSFB. All operations are pre-coordinated with the Launch Range.

Probably NROL-85?

Could also be the long awaited SARah 1

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

With JRTI back in the que. The FH mission can go forward if the payload is ready. But once you get past the mid Mar for a launch date. All of the Crew Dragon and cargo Dragon flights one right after another would mean that it is either now (after the 3 Mar flight) or mid to late May.

Is there info as to if the payload is ready or not?

[zubenelgenubi]

Thoughts on the March SpaceX manifest:

Launch a maximum of four Florida Starlink group, spread approximately evenly apart in the month, alternating use of LC-39A SLC-40, and alternating use of JRTI and OCISLY.

Starlink 4-9, March 3, LC-39A, JRTI
Starlink 4-10, March 8, SLC-40, ASOG

Will SpaceX squeeze in the Starlink 4-12 launch from LC-39A in mid March (NET March 15) before the Axiom-1 launch campaign, especially if no Static Fire is required?  Or is that too much schedule risk re: ISS operations?

If so, then Starlink 4-12 could launch from SLC-40 as soon as the pad and an ASDS are available after the March 8 launch.

If the first mPower triplet does not launch in March, I think another Starlink group will launch from SLC-40 end of March/beginning of April.

Axiom-1 (March 30), Crew-4 (April 15), and SpX-25 (May 1): I suspect LC-39A is booked solid by these three missions from mid March through early May.  There may be small "quickie-launch with no Static Fire for Starlink" windows, but I don't intimately know SpaceX operations.

No Falcon Heavy launch until after the above three launches from LC-39A--NET mid May.

Launch one Starlink group from Vandenberg in the last half of March.
Edit Feb 23: Using 1071.2.  1051.12 is returning to the Cape.  1063.5 would not likely be ready yet.

Edit Feb 23: NROL-85 will use 1071.X sometime later this year.

Total Falcon launches in March: Maximum of 6.

[Alexphysics]

With JRTI back in the que. The FH mission can go forward if the payload is ready. But once you get past the mid Mar for a launch date. All of the Crew Dragon and cargo Dragon flights one right after another would mean that it is either now (after the 3 Mar flight) or mid to late May.

Is there info as to if the payload is ready or not?

USSF-44 is not happening until next quarter at the earliest.

[wannamoonbase]

Thoughts on the March SpaceX manifest:

Launch a maximum of four Florida Starlink group, spread approximately evenly apart in the month, alternating use of LC-39A SLC-40, and alternating use of JRTI and OCISLY.

Starlink 4-9, March 3, LC-39A, JRTI
Starlink 4-10, March 8, SLC-40, OCISLY

Will SpaceX squeeze in the Starlink 4-12 launch from LC-39A in mid March (NET March 15) before the Axiom-1 launch campaign, especially if no Static Fire is required?  Or is that too much schedule risk re: ISS operations?

If so, then Starlink 4-12 could launch from SLC-40 as soon as the pad and an ASDS are available after the March 8 launch.

If the first mPower triplet does not launch in March, I think another Starlink group will launch from SLC-40 end of March/beginning of April.

Axiom-1 (March 30), Crew-4 (April 15), and SpX-25 (May 1): I suspect LC-39A is booked solid by these three missions from mid March through early May.  There may be small "quickie-launch with no Static Fire for Starlink" windows, but I don't intimately know SpaceX operations.

No Falcon Heavy launch until after the above three launches from LC-39A--NET mid May.

Launch one Starlink group from Vandenberg in the last half of March.

Total Falcon launches: Maximum of 6.

They can slot in a Starlink launch from SLC40 between each LC39A flight and that is still almost a mission a week.

Throw in 1 per month from Vandenberg and they can stay on track for 52 launches this year.

[RocketLover0119]

Thoughts on the March SpaceX manifest:

Launch a maximum of four Florida Starlink group, spread approximately evenly apart in the month, alternating use of LC-39A SLC-40, and alternating use of JRTI and OCISLY.

Starlink 4-9, March 3, LC-39A, JRTI
Starlink 4-10, March 8, SLC-40, OCISLY

Will SpaceX squeeze in the Starlink 4-12 launch from LC-39A in mid March (NET March 15) before the Axiom-1 launch campaign, especially if no Static Fire is required?  Or is that too much schedule risk re: ISS operations?

If so, then Starlink 4-12 could launch from SLC-40 as soon as the pad and an ASDS are available after the March 8 launch.

If the first mPower triplet does not launch in March, I think another Starlink group will launch from SLC-40 end of March/beginning of April.

Axiom-1 (March 30), Crew-4 (April 15), and SpX-25 (May 1): I suspect LC-39A is booked solid by these three missions from mid March through early May.  There may be small "quickie-launch with no Static Fire for Starlink" windows, but I don't intimately know SpaceX operations.

No Falcon Heavy launch until after the above three launches from LC-39A--NET mid May.

Launch one Starlink group from Vandenberg in the last half of March.

Total Falcon launches: Maximum of 6.

Reaaaaallllyyy hoping 4-12 holds for around March 15th, will be at the cape!

[zubenelgenubi]

With JRTI back in the que. The FH mission can go forward if the payload is ready. But once you get past the mid Mar for a launch date. All of the Crew Dragon and cargo Dragon flights one right after another would mean that it is either now (after the 3 Mar flight) or mid to late May.

Is there info as to if the payload is ready or not?

USSF-44 is not happening until next quarter at the earliest.

Assuming USSF-52 still follows USSF-44, it would now be NET June?

How long is a Falcon Heavy launch campaign?
Edit: 40 days from Crew DM1 to Arabsat-6A, in 2019, is the minimum thus far.
I assume/hope it will take less time now?

[[email protected]]

What about Nilesat, transporter-4 and SARah?

[zubenelgenubi]

What about Nilesat, transporter-4 and SARah?

Nilesat-301: Canaveral SLC-40, NET April
Transporter-4: Canaveral SLC-40, April
SARah 1: Vandenberg SLC-4E?, NET April

Edit: The most up-to-date information is usually in the particular launch thread and the US launch schedule thread.

[zubenelgenubi]

0325-EX-ST-2022

Vandy RTLS, NET April

This application uses information from previous grant 1981-EX-ST-2021. There is a Stage1TX2/Stage2TX1 frequency swap for this mission to mitigate interference. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for SpaceX Mission 1523 from SLC-4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base. The application includes sub-orbital first stage and orbital second stage. Trajectory data shall be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. All downrange Earth stations are receive-only. The recovery portion is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the command uplink from an onshore station at VSFB, and 2) experimental post landing first-stage uplink testing from the onshore station at VSFB. All operations are pre-coordinated with the Launch Range.

Probably NROL-85?

Could also be the long awaited SARah 1

SpaceX mission 1523, Vandenberg SFB, operation start date April 7, LZ-4 landing = NROL-85:

LZ-4 landing, check out FCC permit https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=113488&RequestTimeout=1000

[realnouns]

0310-EX-ST-2022 NET late March.  [NET March 23]

This application uses information from previous grant 1845-EX-ST-2021. There is a Stage 1/Stage 2 frequency swap to mitigate interference. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for SpaceX Mission 1690 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39A KSC, and the experimental recovery following the Falcon 9 launch. Includes sub-orbital first stage, and orbital second stage. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. All downrange Earth stations are receive-only. All operations are pre-coordinated with the Launch Range. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.

Droneship position looks like SSO:   North  23  56  25   West  79  13  16

Could this be Transporter 4?

[zubenelgenubi: I split/merged this post to the manifest discussion thread, with one previous discussion post up-thread here.]

[Alexphysics]

0310-EX-ST-2022 NET late March [NET March 23]

This application uses information from previous grant 1845-EX-ST-2021. There is a Stage 1/Stage 2 frequency swap to mitigate interference. This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for SpaceX Mission 1690 from Cape Canaveral FL at LC-40 CCAFS or LC-39A KSC, and the experimental recovery following the Falcon 9 launch. Includes sub-orbital first stage, and orbital second stage. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. All downrange Earth stations are receive-only. All operations are pre-coordinated with the Launch Range. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.

Droneship position looks like SSO:   North  23  56  25   West  79  13  16

Could this be Transporter 4?

[zubenelgenubi: I split/merged this post to the manifest discussion thread, with one previous discussion post up-thread here.]

Given the fact that Ben Cooper lists Transporter 4 as being early April and doesn't mention LZ landing, I'd say it's most likely the case that one is T-4.