Kwangmyongsong-3, Unha-3 launch, December 12 2012

[DFSL]

The "analysis" posted by Yonhap News Agency shows crystal clear that there is a lot of hurt pride in South Korea:

"Toxic fuel means they were testing a ballistic missile"
Sure, because there are no countries out there using toxic fuels in their carrier rockets (Proton, Kosmos-3M, Long March, Dnepr, etc.)

"The rocket is based on Scud technology, ergo is a weapon"
Absolutely, because most rockets in the world have no ICBM heritage at all, nor they started as conversions Really.

"The debris shows poor workmanship"
Yet the vehicle managed to achieve its objective, which is more than can be said about the South Korean counterpart. And it used technology that is known to its makers, instead of directly sourced from other nations.

[Sven Grahn]

I captured two  ore pix from the NK video of its satellite launch:

- There seems to be a new device on this satellite model – some sort of two-axis sensor? Sun sensor?
- On the second stage I spotted what I think are typical inverted-F antennas that are usually used for telemetry transmitters or radar transponders. Also there is a retrorocket (for making a clean separation from the third stage) visible.

Sven Grahn

[plutogno]

"Toxic fuel means they were testing a ballistic missile"
Sure, because there are no countries out there using toxic fuels in their carrier rockets (Proton, Kosmos-3M, Long March, Dnepr, etc.)

I was thinking more of Ariane 1-4, which did not even originate in a ballistic missile of any kind

[JimO]

The video seems to indicate Kim Jong Un was IN the control center during the launch--talk about pressure to succeed

If so, then the satellites he was videotaped with could not have been the actual payload, and he couldn't have seen the rocket in the assembly building, if it was already on the pad. Probably a second rocket?

Or was he inside the General Control Center not far from Pyongyang?

[Comet]

The video seems to indicate Kim Jong Un was IN the control center during the launch--talk about pressure to succeed

If so, then the satellites he was videotaped with could not have been the actual payload, and he couldn't have seen the rocket in the assembly building, if it was already on the pad. Probably a second rocket?

Or was he inside the General Control Center not far from Pyongyang?

Or, we have seen a stock video of a previous visit.

[Damon Hill]

ICBMs are solid fueled for very good reasons; liquid fueled missiles are awkward to
handle at best and represent only first and second generation technology.  North Korea will only have a token threat capability until they can field a number of solid fuel ICBMs.

That's probably a decade or much more from now.  This is only a learning exercise in basic rocketry with some good propaganda value.

[sdsds]

This is only a learning exercise in basic rocketry with some good propaganda value.

I think the senior Iranian military official quoted by the Fars News Agency (as reported by CNN) pretty much got it right, if you apply the appropriate filter to adjust for his politicized wording:
"Experience has shown that independent countries, by self-confidence and perseverance, can quickly reach the height of self-sufficiency in science and technology. Hegemonic powers, such as the United States, are unable to stop the progress of such countries."

With this launch North Korea has refuted the efficacy of technology "non-proliferation." In this case it is sad, but scientific knowledge and the technical capabilities it provides are inherently available to all who seek them.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/12/world/asia/north-korea-rocket-launch/

[hop]

ICBMs are solid fueled for very good reasons; liquid fueled missiles are awkward to handle at best and represent only first and second generation technology.  North Korea will only have a token threat capability until they can field a number of solid fuel ICBMs.

Given the history of Soviet ICBMs and SLBMs this is a rather absurd statement.

[Targeteer]

The video seems to indicate Kim Jong Un was IN the control center during the launch--talk about pressure to succeed

If so, then the satellites he was videotaped with could not have been the actual payload, and he couldn't have seen the rocket in the assembly building, if it was already on the pad. Probably a second rocket?

Or was he inside the General Control Center not far from Pyongyang?

I got the impression from the video-when not laughing hysterically at the bombastic audio--that Kim Jong Un made TWO visits to the depicted control room--there are two staged departure scenes.  Either way having the head of your nation looking over your shoulder during a three times failed launch could not have been enjoyable.

Imagine Putin at Baikonour at the next Proton launch. 

[Targeteer]

ICBMs are solid fueled for very good reasons; liquid fueled missiles are awkward to handle at best and represent only first and second generation technology.  North Korea will only have a token threat capability until they can field a number of solid fuel ICBMs.

Given the history of Soviet ICBMs and SLBMs this is a rather absurd statement.

+1

The SS-18 is still in service and has the appropriate NATO designation SATAN due to it's impressive capabilities.

[Steven Pietrobon]

The video seems to indicate Kim Jong Un was IN the control center during the launch--talk about pressure to succeed

If so, then the satellites he was videotaped with could not have been the actual payload, and he couldn't have seen the rocket in the assembly building, if it was already on the pad. Probably a second rocket?

Or was he inside the General Control Center not far from Pyongyang?

From the photos, I conclude that Kim Jong Un visited the launch site before the vehicle was assembled (before the ullage fairings were attached). We later see Kim Jong Un in the General Satellite Control Center watching the launch, which according to your previous post, is located outside Pyongyang. Therefore, it seems obvious to me that Kim Jong Un travelled back to Pyongyang to watch the launch.

For the satellite, we see Kim Jong Un inspecting a satellite that looks remarkably the same as the one seen in April. Also, it looks like the satellite is encapsulated onto the third stage before being stacked at the pad. We also see a second satellite. If all the photos and video are from this launch, then the first satellite is presumably a non-flown version which was shown in April and to Kim Jong Un in December.

This might explain why no photos of the satellite in its fairing was not shown in the April launch. The officials there might have believed that the satellite that was shown was the one that was to fly, while the actual satellite had already been fitted. The promise of taking a photo in its shroud may not have been communicated, or if communicated, could have shown that a different satellite was being flown, contradicting the previous statement.

To throw a spanner in the works, some of the photos in the video may have also been from April!

[Salo]

interesting bit: "Its first stage is fitted with four booster engines of the Nodong shorter-range ballistic missile, based on the technology of Russia's SS-N-6 intermediate missile."

Actual information!

This indicates that the NK launcher uses R-27 engines, developed by the Isaev bureau (R-27 was basically the next generation of naval missile after Scud-class technology). However, the engines are not that much more powerful (~20 tons thrust) than the 11 ton Scud engine, so this launcher should have a launch mass far less than 100 tons, probably closer to 50 tons, or even less.

The implication is that the Unha-3 has 4 4D10 engines in the first stage, a single 4D10 in the second stage, and some sort of smaller engine as the third stage, possibly a single Scud engine.

Staged combustion engine inside propellant tank?   
I doubt that quite a lot! 

[Catatonia]

CCTV NEWS is reporting on their little ticker banner that goes across the bottom of the screen that " DPRK to attempt new satellite launch " , I haven't heard anything else from other sources about this , and CCTV are not always correct with their news at the bottom of the screen , but they are generally more informed than any south Korean media .
Could this be true that they are going to attempt a new launch so soon after the last ?
might it be a indication that the satellite has indeed failed to function ?

[Catatonia]

I am starting to think they have mixed up the two Korea.
I think they must mean the KSLV launch that was just announced and have just messed up   

[jkumpire]

At this point can anyone here give a quick synopsis of what this launch tells us about North Korea's missile program? Is this all just a publicity stunt? Is it a real demonstration of significant progress in their program? What are the long-term ramifications for South Korea, Japan, the US and China?





 

[input~2]

I am starting to think they have mixed up the two Korea.
I think they must mean the KSLV launch that was just announced and have just messed up   

Well, according to KCNA release dated December 24 "The DPRK will continue to launch more satellites following Kwangmyongsong 3-2"

[edkyle99]

At this point can anyone here give a quick synopsis of what this launch tells us about North Korea's missile program? Is this all just a publicity stunt? Is it a real demonstration of significant progress in their program? What are the long-term ramifications for South Korea, Japan, the US and China?

It tells us that North Korea actually does possess the ability to fly a three-stage rocket capable of either orbiting a satellite or of boosting a warhead to intercontinental range.  North Korea has been trying, and failing, to achieve such a result for years.  (We don't know yet if they have a warhead or reentry vehicle, but it seems obvious to assume that such things are part of their plans.)

 - Ed Kyle

[kevin-rf]

Well, one significant thing about this launch is they where able to achieve a precise circular polar orbit? Most countries first launches have not achieved such a precise orbit. It means they are concentrating on making an accurate rocket. I wonder what the CEP would be if they placed a reentry vehicle on it.

[Prober]

I am starting to think they have mixed up the two Korea.
I think they must mean the KSLV launch that was just announced and have just messed up   

Well, according to KCNA release dated December 24 "The DPRK will continue to launch more satellites following Kwangmyongsong 3-2"

well having seen the insides now of the launcher......some easy kinetic countermeasures can handle things if need be.

[JimO]

I'm still comparing the consoles in both control centers, and the major changes between April and December. Does anybody have URLs of the DPRK-released still images of Kim-Jong-Un's visits in December that show crisp images of these new consoles? I have watched the video numerous times and examined screen-grabs but since the youtube copy was off a TV broadcast it is not particularly detailed.

Thanks!