================================================================ ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS================================================================ by Ed Kyle as of April 21, 2022 ================================================================Top active space launch vehicles ranked by Lewis point estimate of their orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits.================================================================ Lewis Successes Point AdjWald Consc. Last Dates Vehicle /Attempts Est* 95%CI* Succes Fail ================================================================Falcon 9 v1.2 128/128(D)0.99 0.96-1.00 128 None 2015-Atlas 5 91/92 0.98 0.94-1.00 82 06/15/07 2002-CZ-2D 57/58 0.97 0.90-1.00 26 12/28/16 1992-Ariane 5-ECA(+) 77/79 0.96 0.91-1.00 14 01/25/18 2002-H-2A 44/45 0.96 0.87-1.00 39 11/29/03 2001-CZ-4(A/B/C) 87/90 0.96 0.90-0.99 29 05/22/19 1988-CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM/YZ)62/64 0.95 0.89-1.00 28 08/18/11 1974-CZ-3B/3C 98/102 0.95 0.90-0.99 18 04/09/20 1996-CZ-2F(T/Y/G) 16/16 0.94 0.77-1.00 16 None 1999-Soyuz 2-1a 29/30# 0.94 0.82-1.00 23 04/28/15 2004-Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 57/60 0.94 0.86-0.99 30 11/28/17 2006-Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 28/29# 0.94 0.81-1.00 26 05/21/09 2006-Soyuz 2-1b 13/13 0.93 0.73-1.00 13 None 2008-Minotaur 1 12/12 0.93 0.72-1.00 12 None 2000-CZ-11 12/12 0.93 0.72-1.00 12 None 2015-PSLV 51/54 0.93 0.84-0.99 13 08/31/17 1993-Antares 2xx 11/11 0.92 0.70-1.00 11 None 2016-CZ-3/3A 37/40 0.90 0.79-0.98 27 08/18/96 1984-CZ-6 8/8 0.90 0.63-1.00 8 None 2015-Vega 17/19xx 0.89 0.67-0.98 3 11/17/20 2012-Proton-M/Briz-M 90/100 0.89 0.82-0.94 0 12/13/21 2001-Pegasus (H/XL) 40/45 0.89 0.76-0.96 31 11/04/96 1991-Electron 22/25 0.88 0.69-0.97 5 05/15/21 2017-Kuaizhou 1(A) 14/16 0.88 0.63-0.98 0 12/15/21 2013-Minotaur 4/5 6/6++ 0.88 0.56-1.00 6 None 2010-Delta 4 Heavy 12/13 0.87 0.65-1.00 12 12/21/04 2004-Epsilon 5/5 0.86 0.51-1.00 5 None 2013-CZ-7 4/4 0.83 0.45-1.00 4 None 2016-GSLV Mk3 3/3z 0.80 0.38-1.00 3 None 2017-Falcon Heavy 3/3 0.80 0.38-1.00 3 None 2018-Soyuz 2-1v/Volga 4/5 0.80 0.36-0.98 3 12/05/15 2013-CZ-5 4/5 0.80 0.36-0.98 3 07/02/17 2016-Shavit(-1,-2) 9/12 0.75 0.46-0.92 5 9/6/04 1988-GSLV Mk2 6/8 0.75 0.40-0.94 0 08/12/21 2010-Soyuz 2-1v 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 2018-Angara A5/Briz-M 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 2014-CZ-5B 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 2020-Ceres-1 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 2020-CZ-8 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 2020-Qased 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 2020-LauncherOne 3/4 0.75 0.29-0.97 3 05/25/20 2020-Taurus (XL) 7/10 0.70 0.39-0.90 1 3/4/11 1994-CZ-7A 2/3 0.67 0.20-0.94 2 03/16/20 2020-CZ-6A 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2022-Proton M 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 07/21/21 2021-Soyuz 2-1a/Volga 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2016-KT-2 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2017-Jielong-1 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2019-Proton-M/DM-03 3/5 0.60 0.23-0.88 3 07/02/13 2010-Safir 5/9(C) 0.56 0.27-0.81 0 02/05/19 2008-SS-520 1/2 0.50 0.09-0.91 1 01/14/17 2017-Unha (TD-2) 2/5% 0.44 0.12-0.77 2 04/12/12 2006-SQX-1 1/3 0.43 0.06-0.80 0 08/03/21 2019-Astra Rocket 3 2/6 0.40 0.09-0.70 1 02/10/22 2020-Angara A5/Persei 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 12/27/21 2021-KSLV-2 (Nuri) 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 10/21/21 2021-KZ-11 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 07/10/20 2020- ZQ-1 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 10/27/18 2018-OS-M 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 03/27/19 2019-Alpha 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 09/03/21 2021-Simorgh 0/4(E) 0.28 0.00-0.62 0 12/31/21 2017- ================================================================* Lewis Point Estimate Determined as Follows. Maximum Liklihood Estimate (MLE)= x/n where x=success, n=tries For MLE<=0.5, use Wilson Method = (x+2)/(n+4) For MLE Between 0.5 and 0.9, use MLE = x/n For MLE>=0.9, use Laplace Method = (x+1)/(n+2) Lewis, J. & Lauro, J., "Improving the Accuracy of Small-Sample Estimates of Completion Rates", Journal of Usability Studies, Issue 3, Vol. 1, May 2006, pp. 136-150.* Adjusted-Wald 95% Confidence Interval Range Determined as Follows. Pw = (x+1.9208)/(n+3.8416) CI = Pw +/- 1.96*sqrt[(Pw*(1-Pw))/(n+3.8416)] (maximum range 1.00) # Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test flight performed in 2004.++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite flights in 2010-11.x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying launch vehicle on 9-26-1983. Note that 10 additional Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all successful) are cataloged separately.xx Does not include successful 2-11-15 suborbital flight with IXV reentry demonstrator.% Includes 2006 failure thought to be a two-stage suborbital test launch attempt.z Does not include successful inaugural suborbital test flight on 12-18-14.(C) Assumes that two unsuccessful, unreported Safir launch attempts occurred during 2012 and one during 2019. Does not count 2019 prelaunch propellant loading explosion. (D) Does not include 09/01/16 explosion that destroyed F9-29 and AMOS 6 payload during propellant loading for prelaunch hot fire test at CC 40 two days before planned launch. (D) Does not include successful 01/19/20 suborbital IFA Crew Dragon launch by F9-80. (E) Assumes 7/27/17 launch was a failed orbital attempt and that 4/19/16 launch was a suborbital test flight.
