Unemployed Ares I Mobile Launcher set for Crawler trip

[kraisee]

LOL.   "Unemployed" is only the tip of the iceberg for this not-so-little beasties issues.   They're having all sorts of fun with 'er...   You have no idea!

And just FYI, scrub what I may have said before about using this ML/LUT to launch Jupiter's from.   Turns out, that is probably not going to be possible after all.   You'll see...

Ross.

[kfsorensen]

I knew this would be how it would end four years ago.

[nooneofconsequence]

The likely answer there would be "sunk costs" and politically covering them.One shot from that ML covers a world of political be-hind. Additionally, recall that back in May, Nelson asked Bolden about such another test I-X style flight.

What if ... you can't even ... do that ... with this thing?

Sometimes even CYA maneuvers ... end up drawing attention to oversight  failures ... they were meant to hide.

Part of the "sunk cost" daemon.

"So Congressman X, how much did you spend on this useless item? And that one? And that other one ..."

[zerm]

The likely answer there would be "sunk costs" and politically covering them.One shot from that ML covers a world of political be-hind. Additionally, recall that back in May, Nelson asked Bolden about such another test I-X style flight.

What if ... you can't even ... do that ... with this thing?

Sometimes even CYA maneuvers ... end up drawing attention to oversight  failures ... they were meant to hide.

Part of the "sunk cost" daemon.

"So Congressman X, how much did you spend on this useless item? And that one? And that other one ..."

No argument there at all- you are quite correct.

[phred]

Bolden will probably give it away to SeaWorld to "inspire children about becoming an astronaut".

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm still not convinced Ares 1 is dead.  Look at the HR proposal.  They want to demand that NASA

1) Use Constellation hardware
2) Build a human rated launcher and a spacecraft capable of BEO missions.
3) Maintain Ares 1 safety level.
4) Minimize the gap.

Sounds like code for "build the Ares 1."  I mean, is it possible to start over with another launcher and fulfill all these requirements?

[TrueBlueWitt]

Bolden will probably give it away to SeaWorld to "inspire children about becoming an astronaut".

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm still not convinced Ares 1 is dead.  Look at the HR proposal.  They want to demand that NASA

1) Use Constellation hardware
2) Build a human rated launcher and a spacecraft capable of BEO missions.
3) Maintain Ares 1 safety level.
4) Minimize the gap.

Sounds like code for "build the Ares 1."  I mean, is it possible to start over with another launcher and fulfill all these requirements?

Which is why EVERYONE should Call/Write their congressman and tell them to support the Senate version of the bill.. or even FY2011 if you must.  Please do it today!

[JayP]

Bolden will probably give it away to SeaWorld to "inspire children about becoming an astronaut".

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm still not convinced Ares 1 is dead.  Look at the HR proposal.  They want to demand that NASA

1) Use Constellation hardware
2) Build a human rated launcher and a spacecraft capable of BEO missions.
3) Maintain Ares 1 safety level.
4) Minimize the gap.

Sounds like code for "build the Ares 1."  I mean, is it possible to start over with another launcher and fulfill all these requirements?

That is what is called "Confimation bias". There are a lot of other opinions on this site that say all of those objectives could be met without Ares in the picture.

[zerm]

Bolden will probably give it away to SeaWorld to "inspire children about becoming an astronaut".

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm still not convinced Ares 1 is dead.  Look at the HR proposal.  They want to demand that NASA

1) Use Constellation hardware
2) Build a human rated launcher and a spacecraft capable of BEO missions.
3) Maintain Ares 1 safety level.
4) Minimize the gap.

Sounds like code for "build the Ares 1."  I mean, is it possible to start over with another launcher and fulfill all these requirements?

That is what is called "Confimation bias". There are a lot of other opinions on this site that say all of those objectives could be met without Ares in the picture.

"Confimation bias" Agreed! It is hard for anyone on either side (haters or huggers) to avoid that trap- and that includes me.

The fate of the ML/LUT depends on the following- and nothing more. The Congress will send a budget for NASA to the president- if he signs it into law it will be turned over to NASA who will then work within it. Just how the cards in that budget will be stacked will cause NASA to direct efforts in one direction or another. Simple as that. Sure- we can all make predictions here on forums, but such should never be stated as fact (see the two earlier posts that I questioned). No matter how many times you say something or how dark and bold the font or how many posts you have in your username tally- the fact remains that no one here actually knows the final outcome for this launch tower or for the vehicle configuration that it was designed to serve. As I have said before, my 6 year old says she's a mermaid- she says it over and over and with great conviction... but she has yet to grow a tail, nor can she live under water.

[phred]

Which is why EVERYONE should Call/Write their congressman and tell them to support the Senate version of the bill.. or even FY2011 if you must.  Please do it today!

I've actually written them encouraging them to support Ares 1.  Unfortunately, my Representative is Henry Johnson, the guy that thinks Guam is going to capsize if we put too many military personnel there, and he wants whatever the President wants, same as Bolden.

[TrueBlueWitt]

Which is why EVERYONE should Call/Write their congressman and tell them to support the Senate version of the bill.. or even FY2011 if you must.  Please do it today!

I've actually written them encouraging them to support Ares 1.  Unfortunately, my Representative is Henry Johnson, the guy that thinks Guam is going to capsize if we put too many military personnel there, and he wants whatever the President wants, same as Bolden.

I think lack of common sense may a pre-requisite to be a member of the House.. 

And WHY IN THE WORLD.. would you want that Ares-1 debacle to continue?  I'm struggling to come up with any reasons to keep it alive.. But I'll entertain the thought if you think you have a strong case for it to continue(although you have to realize that HLV is deader than a door nail if it does.. right?).

[phred]

And WHY IN THE WORLD.. would you want that Ares-1 debacle to continue?  I'm struggling to come up with any reasons to keep it alive.. But I'll entertain the thought if you think you have a strong case for it to continue(although you have to realize that HLV is deader than a door nail if it does.. right?).

Because I don't think it's nearly the debacle that so many claim.  Anti-Ares sentiment has self-perpetuated among armchair engineers like me, but that doesn't appear to be the sentiment from serious engineers involved in the development.  That's my take anyway, and it is nothing but a take.  Anyway, my opinion isn't going to affect any flying machines.

[sdsds]

Sorry if this has been asked and answered somewhere, but is there a known list of places where the crawler-transporters can set down platforms like this?  Or can any conveniently empty plot of land be converted for the purpose?

Edit to add:  Maybe a 21st century spaceport needs a large parking lot for such platforms?

[Jim]

Sorry if this has been asked and answered somewhere, but is there a known list of places where the crawler-transporters can set down platforms like this? 

The pads, VAB or the MLP refurb area.   Also, those are only places that the crawlers can go

[kraisee]

phred,
Ares-I gets you nowhere.

Ares-I is/was scheduled to cost $15 billion (15 times as much as human rating Delta-IV Heavy to do the same job, in half the time) for a vehicle which still can't get you to the Moon, Mars or Asteroids.

Ares-I requires a second vehicle, a heavy lifter, to get you *anywhere* beyond ISS.

And the fact remains that once you have a heavy lifter, you don't need Ares-I any more.   You can save that $15bn, and just fly the heavy lifter twice instead of one of each.

There never was any reason for Ares-I except to pay for some of the hardware which Griffin needed as a down-payment towards his "bigger than von Braun built" uber-Mars-Booster.

He figured he might be able to make Congress swallow two $15bn projects instead of a single $30bn one.   He was very wrong.


PS -- Jim is one of the most highly respected engineers on the whole forum.   His record of being right on issues is nothing short of formidable.   Seriously, get him to pick your lottery numbers!

Ross.

[robertross]

Well I say if the Ares I ML can't be put to good use, scrap it, get 'some' money out of it, call it a jobs program for the last little while, and move on.

Wasting our time & energy over a few tons of steel is small potatoes in terms of spaceflight. We (general public & space community) have better & more pressing things to concern ourselves with.

[TrueBlueWitt]

Well I say if the Ares I ML can't be put to good use, scrap it, get 'some' money out of it, call it a jobs program for the last little while, and move on.

Wasting our time & energy over a few tons of steel is small potatoes in terms of spaceflight. We (general public & space community) have better & more pressing things to concern ourselves with.

Yes.. by all means.. take it down. So we don't contemplate how many other ways that money would have been better spent.  or leave it as a monument to Griffin's "complex" nature.

Also, Thanks Ross for saying what I was trying to say in what must not have been a politically correct enough way.. very strange having my post dissapear and not even a PM to explain why..  Unless i somehow deleted it accidently myself hitting the "back" button.. hmmm  Very puzzling.

[Chris Bergin]

Let's keep this on the ML, and not turn this into another Ares I debate.

[zerm]

A friend recently pointed out to me that the landscape around KSC as the shuttle program ends is very similar to what it was 30 years ago when it began. You have 39B not shuttle capable and one "unemployed" MLP/LUT sitting behind the VAB.

[Chris Bergin]

Was that one of the Saturn V MLP/LUTs? What eventually happened to it? Assume the MLP became a Shuttle MLP, but the LUT?

[kirghizstan]

Was that one of the Saturn V MLP/LUTs? What eventually happened to it? Assume the MLP became a Shuttle MLP, but the LUT?

i remember taking the tour while columbia was getting ready for its last flight and the tour guide pointing out the rusting remains of the old Saturn V launch tower.