Potential sale of ULA

[Jim]

There's another weird piece to this puzzle:  What the hell is Boeing contributing to the National Team Mark II?  This may be completely unrelated, but since NorGrumm is out and Boeing is in, it kinda makes sense that Boeing must be contributing the transfer element,¹ which was presumably a mutant version of Cygnus in National Team Mark I.

But what does Boeing have that could serve as a TE?  DCSS?  ULA is taking the line down.  EUS?  Way too big, and with the wrong thrust structure to be able to be chopped down to serve as a TE.  Something brand new?  Please.  Boeing's in-house space engineering operation is a train wreck.

Maybe this is more complicated than a straight sale of all assets.  If ULA were to sell the DCSS/ICPS IP and production tooling back to Boeing, that could not only act as the contribution to National Team Mark II, but also be the basis of a plausible orbital transfer/tug business.

After that, selling ULA to almost anybody makes more sense.  Nobody wants a mostly-dead Delta line--except maybe for the DCSS.

I guess this scenario doesn't rule out selling everything to Boeing and just buying out LockMart.  But I'm pretty sure that Tory would last about three months in that nest of vipers, and then ULA would be close to worthless. 

On the other hand, selling ULA minus the Delta pieces-parts to Blue and putting Tory in charge might be viable.  Of course, that assumes that Blue + Tory can figure out how to be a competitive launcher operation.  I still don't think that's possible if Starship is even vaguely successful.  And it certainly doesn't turn Blue into the dominant player in cislunar and lunar surface ops, which is what they need to be if they ever hope to execute on Jeff's original vision.

There is no Delta "pieces" to sell.  All is left is the fly of two D-IV Heavies and two ICPS.  There is no more Delta production

[Steve G]

If BO purchased ULA, could the Vulcans Centaur V be used as a New Glenn third stage?

Or, could BO swap the RL10s for a BE-3U? (Rockets aren't Legos, got it, and thrust would be more than double) plus the costs and recertification, etc. Just asking if feasible. But the loitering time ULA developed could be beneficial.

Lastly, could a Jarvis upper stage work on the Vulcan?

If Bezos owned the Vulcan, he may in the long run try to seep as many components in-house as possible.

This is a question from a non-rocket scientist. Please respond accordingly.

[Robotbeat]

Would make some sense to swap out the RL-10s for BE-3U for lower energy missions as the Rl-10 is super expensive. HOWEVER it’s not like Blue is pumping out BE-3Us, and it’d require a ton of NRE (non-recurring engineering) to swap engines.

[Vahe231991]

If BO purchased ULA, could the Vulcans Centaur V be used as a New Glenn third stage?

Or, could BO swap the RL10s for a BE-3U? (Rockets aren't Legos, got it, and thrust would be more than double) plus the costs and recertification, etc. Just asking if feasible. But the loitering time ULA developed could be beneficial.

Lastly, could a Jarvis upper stage work on the Vulcan?

If Bezos owned the Vulcan, he may in the long run try to seep as many components in-house as possible.

This is a question from a non-rocket scientist. Please respond accordingly.

Even if Blue Origin decides to acquire ULA, it would not have the Vulcan's Centaur stage used as a New Glenn third stage because the combined thrust of the two stages of the New Glenn would be enough for that SLV to loft spacecraft into not just low earth orbit but also geostationary orbit, and the Vulcan is shorter than the New Glenn. The two variants of the Angara rocket currently in use share the same first stage engines but differ in size, so if ULA becomes part of BO, then the latter company would be operating two differently sized rockets sharing the same first stage engines.

[Jim]

, so if ULA becomes part of BO, then the latter company would be operating two differently sized rockets sharing the same first stage engines.

and what is the point of this?

[Jim]

If BO purchased ULA, could the Vulcans Centaur V be used as a New Glenn third stage?

No, because of the horizontal vehicle integration.

[GWH]

Would make some sense to swap out the RL-10s for BE-3U for lower energy missions as the Rl-10 is super expensive. HOWEVER it’s not like Blue is pumping out BE-3Us, and it’d require a ton of NRE (non-recurring engineering) to swap engines.

4x BE-7 is the other option, IMO the better one due to limited throttling of BE-3U.

[GWH]

Another reason for Blue to buy ULA:

https://www.spacefoundation.org/tech_track_papers/cislunar-economy-and-aces/#:~:text=CisLunar%2D1000%20is%20a%20vision,the%20horizon%20for%20human%20development.

CisLunar 1000 - sure maybe it's just a concept with little backing and hardware development behind it - but it 100% aligns with what should be Blue's mission. The missing piece is heavy (semi) reusable lift of propellant, that New Glenn would bring. Would give Blue some clear direction and finally cut the teams at ULA loose to pursue their ideas instead of being hamstrung by their parent companies for all eternity.

[GWH]

If BO purchased ULA, could the Vulcans Centaur V be used as a New Glenn third stage?

No, because of the horizontal vehicle integration.

Could this not be added though? Blue would have needed to so for payloads with NSSL launches had they won, and SpaceX has their proposed vertical pad integration of payloads.

Is the process so radically different that it couldn't be done at the pad with the appropriate infrastructure?

[TrevorMonty]

Would make some sense to swap out the RL-10s for BE-3U for lower energy missions as the Rl-10 is super expensive. HOWEVER it’s not like Blue is pumping out BE-3Us, and it’d require a ton of NRE (non-recurring engineering) to swap engines.

4x BE-7 is the other option, IMO the better one due to limited throttling of BE-3U.

BE7 is 10klbs while RL10 is 25klbs.   

[TheRadicalModerate]

There is no Delta "pieces" to sell.  All is left is the fly of two D-IV Heavies and two ICPS.  There is no more Delta production

I thought they'd moved the ICPS (DCSS) tooling to Michoud.  That's obviously different than setting up the line, but it's worth a lot if you don't have to recreate the tooling, isn't it?

This factors back into the discussion about whether there are contingency plans to turn Artemis IV into a Block 1 mission if EUS and ML2 schedules slip too far to the right (which of course they will).  At some point, if the gap between Arty 3 and 4 gets too wide, they'll have to do something or risk losing a lot of public interest and political support.¹

That would require building one additional ICPS.  If Boeing owns (well, re-owns) all the IP for DCSS, it would make sense to leverage the money that NASA would surely give them to reconstitute the line, which could then be used to make a perfectly reasonable TE for SLD/SLT.

_________________
¹And of course Boeing can't risk SpaceX proposing an F9/D2 crew launch/landing with an LSS to do D2_RPOD-LEO-NRHO-Gateway_RPOD-LEOpropulsive-D2_RPOD as an alternative architecture to SLS/Orion.  Once that cat's out of the bag, it's not going back in.

[Jim]

That would require building one additional ICPS.  If Boeing owns (well, re-owns) all the IP for DCSS, it would make sense to leverage the money that NASA would surely give them to reconstitute the line, which could then be used to make a perfectly reasonable TE for SLD/SLT.

Which people are going to do the work?  All the production workers have been reassigned within ULA.  The engineers are likely have only a small fraction of their time supporting Delta IV and ICPS while doing Vulcan and Atlas.  The ops people will only be part time on Delta IV while supporting Atlas and Vulcan flight rate ramp up.

[TheRadicalModerate]

If BO purchased ULA, could the Vulcans Centaur V be used as a New Glenn third stage?

No, because of the horizontal vehicle integration.

Blue's building a vertical integration facility at LC-36, aren't they?  A Centaur V could be stacked in the VIF.  That would rule out horizontal payload integration, but that's a small price to pay for a BEO mission.  Blue would also have to build a boat-tail interstage to mount the C5, but that's pretty straightforward.

[meekGee]

For a sale like this to happen, ULA must be worth more to the buyer than it is to the seller, right?

To anyone other than BO, I think ULA is an untouchable.  They have a rocket which is born outdated, they are burdened with a ton of legacy inefficiencies that are very hard to shed, and they have no engine development or production.  What they have - contracts - has a limited shelf life, and is worth the same to the buyer and seller.

To BO, who is the only entity out there with an up-and-coming heavy rocket, there is exceptional value here.  A way to jump-start their launch business.  This makes so much sense, if you look at this board, some of us have been calling for such a move for years now.

BO is at a point where they think NG is now on a real schedule. Let's say it'll fly within 2 years.  The timing is perfect.

If BO owns ULA, and if NG works out well and early, they can even transition some Kuiper flights to NG and open Vulcan to more USG flights for extra revenue.  If NG doesn't, they have the flexibility to fall back on more Vulcan flights.

[GWH]

4x BE-7 is the other option, IMO the better one due to limited throttling of BE-3U.

BE7 is 10klbs while RL10 is 25klbs.

5 to 6 then.. lol...  A 3 vs 6 engine option could be a possibility as the thrust requirements are a function of mission/staging velocity.  High energy payloads flying on Vulcan 6 wouldn't need to minimize gravity losses as much.

[TheRadicalModerate]

That would require building one additional ICPS.  If Boeing owns (well, re-owns) all the IP for DCSS, it would make sense to leverage the money that NASA would surely give them to reconstitute the line, which could then be used to make a perfectly reasonable TE for SLD/SLT.

Which people are going to do the work?  All the production workers have been reassigned within ULA.  The engineers are likely have only a small fraction of their time supporting Delta IV and ICPS while doing Vulcan and Atlas.  The ops people will only be part time on Delta IV while supporting Atlas and Vulcan flight rate ramp up.

The Artemis III ICPS is still in Decatur, so they haven't reassigned everybody.  If Boeing wanted to re-purpose the DCSS for new tasks, the obvious solution would be to transfer essential personnel for building more DCSSes to Boeing, along with the tooling and the IP.

This is the only thing I can think of that Boeing could contribute to National Team Mk II.  I guess it's possible that Blue's now going with a 2-stage architecture, but the Blue Moon would have to be huge to get that to work, and that would likely throw the BE-7 all out of whack as well.

[trimeta]

Northrop is my favorite. They are already ULA's solid booster supplier for Atlas/Vulcan and the new Antares 330 looks like it could use a Centaur 2nd stage. The community likes to joke about rockets != legos, but the engineers Northorp acquired from Orbital ATK seem to have made careers out of making stage mixes/swaps work.

Northrop already has a plan to "Lego rocket" a liquid second stage onto Antares: MLV, formerly known as Firefly Beta. Same first stage as Antares 330, but with a second stage using the same engine which the first stage has seven of.

[HVM]

I don't like it, most of the value for parents was in the Atlas and this lowers my confidence to Vulcan and BE-4.

[Jim]

The Artemis III ICPS is still in Decatur[/url], so they haven't reassigned everybody.  If Boeing wanted to re-purpose the DCSS for new tasks, the obvious solution would be to transfer essential personnel for building more DCSSes to Boeing, along with the tooling and the IP.

Not true.   The tanks and structures were made long ago.  No reason for those skills to be retained. Wiring harness people have likely moved on.   All that would remain is integration types that would spend more time on other vehicles.     Again, there are no dedicated DCSS people to transfer.

[Jim]

I don't like it, most of the value for parents was in the Atlas and this lowers my confidence to Vulcan and BE-4.

How does that work?  It is the same people that are working Atlas and Vulcan.