Author Topic: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule  (Read 31421 times)

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« on: 03/17/2018 03:12 am »
After almost another 10 flights since the last update, it's time to take a look at the stats again. Data as of June 18th and post mission 87 (Starlink L8)

 * 1048 and 1049 were not only the first two cores to do a fourth flight, but they were also the first to do a fifth mission. Unfortunately RIP 1048.
 * We now have seen 5 cores perform fourth missions - 1046, 1048, 1049, 1051, and 1056. Looks like 1059 is also going to join that group after it gets refurbished.
 * Of the 14 cores that have had at least one flight so far, 8 are lost. That leaves us with 4 used cores (1049.6, 1051.5, 1058.2 & 1059.4), 2 used side boosters (1052.3 & 1053.3) and 2 new cores coming up (1060 & 1061)
 * I think it's amazing that half the cores have flown 3 missions. The cores average 2.6 flights per each. These two stats just fascinate me. I mean it's not like a jetliner, but there is a fleet that you can just pull up and ride. it's reliable and has done that consistently. Amazing!
 * With the recent cadance we might see the fastest turnaround record get shattered. Once 1051 joins the Firth mission club on June 23rd the remaining cores will be under 25 days since last flight. The likely candidate for the ANASIS-II mission is 1058.2. Finally flying GPS III on 1060 will give them another core to add to the fleet.
 

this part is still true:
I have used our own excellent Manifest thread maintained by gongora and this Reddit core thread (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores) to compile it. I tried to follow the Manifests thread nomenclature as close as I can.
« Last Edit: 06/19/2020 03:05 pm by Stefan.Christoff.19 »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #1 on: 03/17/2018 05:29 am »
Do you want to add a table showing what all the S, L and X abbreviations means?
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #2 on: 03/17/2018 09:31 am »
FWIW, there is a quite well-maintained List of Falcon 9 first-stage boosters on the English Wikipedia.  Seems quite actively supported by multiple editors.

Wikis are pretty useful constructs for keeping a list like this up to date.

A lot of that article meets Wikipedia secondary source requirements by using the excellent published articles by NSF journalists Chris Gebhardt, Chris Bergin, William Graham and Ian Atkinson.  Almost half of all sources on that page are from NASASpaceFlight!  (28 out of 63 total sources)

Might we want to put some of our editing energies into just making that wiki article really accurate?
... and then we all have a great place to find the current info on the Falcon 9 boosters.
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
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Offline RocketLover0119

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #3 on: 03/17/2018 10:59 am »
Great table, few things, the FH side cores are now back in hanger at 39a, and for those wondering, L= landed,
X=expendable,S=?
"The Starship has landed"

Offline hamerad

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #4 on: 03/17/2018 11:02 am »
I read it as L = land S = sea X = expended

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #5 on: 03/17/2018 02:55 pm »
Do you want to add a table showing what all the S, L and X abbreviations means?
I used the Manifest abbreviations and colors hoping it will make it easier since it was already debated and adopted, but I'll add it to the bottom with the next update.

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #6 on: 03/17/2018 03:20 pm »
FWIW, there is a quite well-maintained List of Falcon 9 first-stage boosters on the English Wikipedia.  Seems quite actively supported by multiple editors.

Wikis are pretty useful constructs for keeping a list like this up to date.

A lot of that article meets Wikipedia secondary source requirements by using the excellent published articles by NSF journalists Chris Gebhardt, Chris Bergin, William Graham and Ian Atkinson.  Almost half of all sources on that page are from NASASpaceFlight!  (28 out of 63 total sources)

Might we want to put some of our editing energies into just making that wiki article really accurate?
... and then we all have a great place to find the current info on the Falcon 9 boosters.

Those resources are excellent, but my goal was not to compile a history of cores. I felt that there wasn't a convenient source of available cores with their missions per the core. Once the cadence of flights and landings went up it was hard to figure out what was the core availability to take on the rest of the manifest. It could be just me, but before making the schedule I was under the impression that they had plenty of cores to refurb.
If  you are looking at an urgent mission, like Zuma for example, and you are trying to figure out what core they can take (or bump out another mission) it will be hard to figure that out by looking at core or a launch history going vertical.

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #7 on: 03/17/2018 03:27 pm »
Great table, few things, the FH side cores are now back in hanger at 39a, and for those wondering, L= landed,
X=expendable,S=?
thank you for the update on the side boosters. I will update the schedule as I think they also confirmed CRS-14 will ride on the used booster as  speculated.
S=Ship (ASDS).

the bottom of gongora's manifest has the detail on colors too
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0


Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #8 on: 03/18/2018 05:15 am »
Here's another source which shows which boosters are available for reuse.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N8AaRRaPyVZZ2Rxpe9lWEFXWIyRqAJqXJ--TqHuhBYw/htmlview
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #9 on: 08/05/2018 12:46 am »
With Block 4 almost all reused once and then expended, it's time for an update. I intended to do an interim update in-between, but you know life happens.

With Block 5 starting service I feel like I see a lot more questions around cores, so hopefully this will visually help in determining core availability to flights. I have used the Manifest thread and the Reddit Core page https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores in establishing cores to mission assignments and location. I don't have any other information so those assignments that are speculative have "?" at the end. Please let me know if there are inaccuracies.

Could 1048 (Iridium NEXT Flight 7) be the first one to get triple reuse? It's the only B5 booster on the West coast currently. There are 5 upcoming flights from Vandenberg - SAOCOM, Spaceflight SSO-A, Iridium 8, RADARSAT and SARah 1. Iridium 8 will use a new booster AFAIK.  Can Spaceflight SSO-A wait for 1048 to be refurbished after SAOCOM? If they give Spaceflight a new booster, it might create a scheduling problem since GPS III and Iridium 8 will have to wait for 1052-53 and may have to slip to the right (that's a speculation on my part, I donít have a clue of their production schedule). In the schedule I have matched Spaceflight with 1050, but it's obvious that it might be on a reused booster.


Offline Roy_H

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #10 on: 08/05/2018 08:13 am »
I like it, but may I suggest a different arrangement? Missions should be shown vertically, not horizontally so there is no limit and the table does not become unwieldy. Also this table should be copied and maintained in your first post.
« Last Edit: 08/05/2018 08:15 am by Roy_H »
"If we don't achieve re-usability, I will consider SpaceX to be a failure." - Elon Musk
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Offline Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #11 on: 08/05/2018 08:59 am »
B1050 is on the East Coast at the Cape, so no west coast mission for that core

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #12 on: 08/05/2018 07:54 pm »
B1050 is on the East Coast at the Cape, so no west coast mission for that core
This is highly uncertain and more likely to be 1049... mainly based on when a new core is required, when they typically are transported and the fact that no-one notices a core coming into Florida since 1047... Almost all are reported when traveling through Florida.
I expect 1050 to still at McGregor awaiting the right time to be transported when needed. Storage space seems more abundant there then at either coast...

Online ngilmore

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #13 on: 08/05/2018 08:31 pm »
Edit: Another source - https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/8jmn3e/spacex_recovery_history_preblock_5_graphic/  (image attached)

I know a table is easier to maintain, but I wanted to re-post this lovely graphic from Reddit user "spacex_vehicles" for design inspiration.

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #14 on: 08/06/2018 10:04 am »
B1050 is on the East Coast at the Cape, so no west coast mission for that core
This is highly uncertain and more likely to be 1049... mainly based on when a new core is required, when they typically are transported and the fact that no-one notices a core coming into Florida since 1047... Almost all are reported when traveling through Florida.
I expect 1050 to still at McGregor awaiting the right time to be transported when needed. Storage space seems more abundant there then at either coast...

Ok, lots of confusion around which core was seen heading into Florida last week...
L2 discussion now has some evidence that might indicate that it was 1050 after all... 

I see several scenarios:
- L2 evidence is flawed and it was 1049
- 1049 was not seen, but is at Cape already, so it was 1050, rare for core to be missed while traveling through busy Florida... Typically multiple sightings from independent sources..
- 1049 is still at McGregor and 1050 leapfrogged, but then why?!

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #15 on: 08/06/2018 12:50 pm »
Thank you for the feedback. I will be changing the format of the table now that Block 5 is the only core type available. With Block 4 the type of initial mission (GTO vs. LEO for example) was important to determine reuse, but that is not the case with B5. The schedule is not an attempt to keep history of flights or cores, but rather an inventory with enough facts to determine what core could fly with the upcoming missions.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2018 01:11 pm by Stefan.Christoff.19 »

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #16 on: 08/06/2018 12:59 pm »
B1050 is on the East Coast at the Cape, so no west coast mission for that core
This is highly uncertain and more likely to be 1049... mainly based on when a new core is required, when they typically are transported and the fact that no-one notices a core coming into Florida since 1047... Almost all are reported when traveling through Florida.
I expect 1050 to still at McGregor awaiting the right time to be transported when needed. Storage space seems more abundant there then at either coast...

Ok, lots of confusion around which core was seen heading into Florida last week...
L2 discussion now has some evidence that might indicate that it was 1050 after all... 

I see several scenarios:
- L2 evidence is flawed and it was 1049
- 1049 was not seen, but is at Cape already, so it was 1050, rare for core to be missed while traveling through busy Florida... Typically multiple sightings from independent sources..
- 1049 is still at McGregor and 1050 leapfrogged, but then why?!

Thank you Jakusb, I'm not a L2 member so I didn't see that info. The rest of the sources I've seen left me with the same questions and as a result I opted out to match the wiki core Reddit page instead of creating confusion.

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #17 on: 08/06/2018 01:23 pm »

Thank you Jakusb, I'm not a L2 member so I didn't see that info. The rest of the sources I've seen left me with the same questions and as a result I opted out to match the wiki core Reddit page instead of creating confusion.

L2 has some amazing info and is well worth the small investment, and more importantly it helps maintain the site and its cost of operation...

I maintain the L2 Stage Watch thread and I try to keep track as best as possible of all 1st stage cores...
One of the most exciting features is the FPIP overlay with corenr predictions, as well as production predictions.

Anyway, we are all a bit confused about 1049/1050, but will be clear in several weeks at the latest as one of them is most likely to launch Telstar 18...
If this turns out to be 1049, we still have to confirm 1050 is also at East Coast. For now I still have 1050 going West to launch Iridium Next-8... this still seems the most logical assignment given that 1051 is already assigned to launch DM-1 and 1052 almost certainly must be the next FH center core, given a long lead time and dedicated production from start, combined with initial NET for STP-2...
If so 1053 would be the first next available new core, which also could be the 2nd core going west, instead of 1050... There seems no other solution other then launching IridiumNext-8 on flight-proven core, which contradicts previous statements that it would fly a new core..

Exciting puzzles, exciting times... ;)

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #18 on: 08/06/2018 01:46 pm »

Thank you Jakusb, I'm not a L2 member so I didn't see that info. The rest of the sources I've seen left me with the same questions and as a result I opted out to match the wiki core Reddit page instead of creating confusion.

L2 has some amazing info and is well worth the small investment, and more importantly it helps maintain the site and its cost of operation...

I maintain the L2 Stage Watch thread and I try to keep track as best as possible of all 1st stage cores...
One of the most exciting features is the FPIP overlay with corenr predictions, as well as production predictions.

Anyway, we are all a bit confused about 1049/1050, but will be clear in several weeks at the latest as one of them is most likely to launch Telstar 18...
If this turns out to be 1049, we still have to confirm 1050 is also at East Coast. For now I still have 1050 going West to launch Iridium Next-8... this still seems the most logical assignment given that 1051 is already assigned to launch DM-1 and 1052 almost certainly must be the next FH center core, given a long lead time and dedicated production from start, combined with initial NET for STP-2...
If so 1053 would be the first next available new core, which also could be the 2nd core going west, instead of 1050... There seems no other solution other then launching IridiumNext-8 on flight-proven core, which contradicts previous statements that it would fly a new core..

Exciting puzzles, exciting times... ;)
Gongora mentioned to me that you are keeping such a schedule in L2 when I posted the first iteration and I've followed your comments closely since :-). I don't mean to duplicate your effort, but there's nothing in the public domain. When I started wondering about core's assignments when similar puzzles came up in the past I decided to give it a try and put something together.

That puzzle between the GPS III and Iridium 8 scheduled for new cores and the manifest on the West coast is what got me thinking that 1048 might be the first one to fly a third mission. Which is the type of insight I wanted to be able to get from this schedule.

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #19 on: 08/06/2018 01:54 pm »

Gongora mentioned to me that you are keeping such a schedule in L2 when I posted the first iteration and I've followed your comments closely since :-). I don't mean to duplicate your effort, but there's nothing in the public domain. When I started wondering about core's assignments when similar puzzles came up in the past I decided to give it a try and put something together.

That puzzle between the GPS III and Iridium 8 scheduled for new cores and the manifest on the West coast is what got me thinking that 1048 might be the first one to fly a third mission. Which is the type of insight I wanted to be able to get from this schedule.

I have 1048 also as first 3rd flown booster for Sherpa-SSO, but highly speculative and 1046 might be an outsider with it being candidate for In-flight Abort around same time, although likely to slip even more.
For now my money is on 1048... ;)

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