Author Topic: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches  (Read 33405 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #20 on: 10/17/2020 02:53 pm »
It seems strange that swing arm repair would be enough to “indefinitely” delay the launch. I suspect this is the public story, but that there also are other (more serious) problems they are fixing at the same time that are the *real* long poles for the delay. But this is only my speculation.

I think more likely is that ULA just isn’t confident enough yet in a date to reserve the range. May be they need a swing arm replacement part and don’t yet have a definite delivery/installation date, or not sure how long more testing will take etc.

Offline ugordan

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #21 on: 10/17/2020 09:48 pm »
It seems strange that swing arm repair would be enough to “indefinitely” delay the launch. I suspect this is the public story, but that there also are other (more serious) problems they are fixing at the same time that are the *real* long poles for the delay. But this is only my speculation.

I won't go down the conspiracy theory route, but I'd guess ULA's major pitch of "reliable, on-time access to space" over The Competitor kind of got back at them and they want no more embarrassing aborts or holds with this launch.

I guess the upshot of all of this is, if you really want "reliable, on-time access to space", then Fly Atlas (TM).

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #22 on: 10/18/2020 12:16 am »
Maybe they have long wait time for the legacy spare parts.
Pure speculation, but you could imagine an inspection showing some part(s) of the structure rusted enough that it could not be trusted.  Then they would have to do some quick structural engineering, design a new piece, get it fabricated at a steel shop, then somehow hold up the arm while they cut out the bad piece(s) and weld/bolt in the replacement(s).  Then they would need to re-test everything.  I could see an uncertain and week-ish long delay for that.

Offline cpushack

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #23 on: 10/18/2020 06:31 am »
It seems strange that swing arm repair would be enough to “indefinitely” delay the launch. I suspect this is the public story, but that there also are other (more serious) problems they are fixing at the same time that are the *real* long poles for the delay. But this is only my speculation.

I won't go down the conspiracy theory route, but I'd guess ULA's major pitch of "reliable, on-time access to space" over The Competitor kind of got back at them and they want no more embarrassing aborts or holds with this launch.

I guess the upshot of all of this is, if you really want "reliable, on-time access to space", then Fly Atlas (TM).

Though Atlas has its own share of delays, including notably 3 seperate delays for 3 different issues in launching Perseverance to Mars

Offline spacenut

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #24 on: 10/20/2020 09:04 pm »
The Delta IV heavy launch facility was built around 20 years ago.  Not that old in comparison to other large structures such as shipping loading and unloading cranes and such.  However, it isn't used that often.  Therefore as equipment is not used it rusts, and deteriorates especially in the salt air.

I have a friend who had an MGA sports car back in the 1960's.  Nice car and ran good.  He joined the national guard and took officers training right out of high school to keep from being drafted into the army for the Vietnam war.  Anyway, while he was gone, he left it with his parents.  It just sat there.  Before he came home, his dad went out to start it.  Had to jump it off.  It started, and then started smoking real bad.  His valves and rings had dried out from not being used.  He had to get his engine rebuilt.  He should have started it at least once a week and drove it around to keep the engine lubricated and the battery charged. 

All that being said, this facility, not being used that often will have maintenance problems.  It probably should be moved around and checked weekly by technicians to not have this happen. 

Offline Lar

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #25 on: 10/23/2020 04:23 pm »
Space Force official: Launch scrubs are no reason to despair

Quote from: Spacenews
A streak of United Launch Alliance and SpaceX launch scrubs has frustrated rocket company executives and space aficionados. But Space Force launch managers are not discouraged, and in fact see scrubs as proof that systems are working like they should, Col. Douglas Pentecost said Oct. 22.
Scrubs are better than engine rich combustion or rapid unscheduled disassembly. By a wide margin.

(Frequent) Scrubs are not as good as infrastructure that is so robust and reliable that we get 1/10th of the way to airline frequency and reliability levels...
« Last Edit: 10/28/2020 02:36 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #26 on: 10/23/2020 06:17 pm »
 Personally, if they had to get bit, I'm kind of glad ULA and SpaceX got bit by bugs at the same time. Prevents either side's boosters from overblowing things too much.
 And really glad that ULA is going through the extra trouble of refurbishment instead of just fixing existing problems. It does make you wonder if some numbnuts decided PMs could be stretched out since the whole thing was close to retirement anyhow.

 Hard to believe, but that line was completely unintentional..
 "Prevents either side's boosters from overblowing things"
« Last Edit: 10/23/2020 06:19 pm by Nomadd »
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline robertross

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #27 on: 10/27/2020 09:15 pm »
A way to go yet:

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1321199132514652162

Quote
Still working through the swing arm hydraulics.  Drained 2000 gallons of oil, will be flushing for a few days, then replacing lots of servos.

That is the effect of poor maintenance practices and potentially a poor circuit design.
It's bad enough to have to flush a live system (as opposed to a newly installed one), but to replace a number of servos?
1) Obviously no pressure filtration for each servo (valve)
2) Potentially no 'kidney loop' oil circulation system
3) Likely no sampling regiment implemented to monitor for contamination (water, dirt, etc.).

Offline RyanC

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #28 on: 10/27/2020 10:37 pm »
So what was all that $$$ each year for launch assurance for?

Offline dglow

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #29 on: 10/27/2020 11:08 pm »
So what was all that $$$ each year for launch assurance for?

Assurance. Apparently, when you stop paying it, launches are no longer as sure.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #30 on: 10/28/2020 12:44 am »
So what was all that $$$ each year for launch assurance for?

It's become embarrassingly obvious that it was never spent on pad maintenance.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #31 on: 10/28/2020 11:51 am »
That is the effect of poor maintenance practices and potentially a poor circuit design.
It's bad enough to have to flush a live system (as opposed to a newly installed one), but to replace a number of servos?
1) Obviously no pressure filtration for each servo (valve)
2) Potentially no 'kidney loop' oil circulation system
3) Likely no sampling regiment implemented to monitor for contamination (water, dirt, etc.).

Note that they had a full year to fix this.  The previous launch was last August.  Given they are doing a full refresh now, that means they did not save any money, held up a launch, and aggrevated an important customer, all for nothing.  Or worse than nothing - it surely costs *more* now since it has to be done in a hurry, and it's a hit to their reputation.   

What clearly happened is that they tried to save money by delaying or deferring maintenance on the hydraulic system.   However a closer look, after they tried and failed to use it during the launch campaign, revealed systemic problems that needed to be fixed.   There is certainly nothing wrong with saving money by deferring maintenance on a system that's working OK and unlikely to fail when you need it.   We all (at least I do) make that judgement all the time, on a car, a house, or our health. But on something important, this requires a firm line of reasoning, and likely a detailed inspection, to make sure you are not asking for trouble.   So either they skipped the detailed inspection, or the inspection failed to reveal serious existing problems.  Either alternative looks unprofessional, something I've never seen from ULA before.

Offline woods170

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #32 on: 10/28/2020 01:11 pm »
So what was all that $$$ each year for launch assurance for?

It's become embarrassingly obvious that it was never spent on pad maintenance.

Yes, apparently a yearly ELC payment of $800 million (on average) was not sufficient to prevent this from happening. Makes me wonder what ULA did spend all that ELC money on...
« Last Edit: 10/28/2020 01:12 pm by woods170 »

Offline woods170

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #33 on: 10/28/2020 01:22 pm »
Note that they had a full year to fix this.  The previous launch was last August.  Given they are doing a full refresh now, that means they did not save any money, held up a launch, and aggrevated an important customer, all for nothing.  Or worse than nothing - it surely costs *more* now since it has to be done in a hurry, and it's a hit to their reputation.   

What clearly happened is that they tried to save money by delaying or deferring maintenance on the hydraulic system.   However a closer look, after they tried and failed to use it during the launch campaign, revealed systemic problems that needed to be fixed.   There is certainly nothing wrong with saving money by deferring maintenance on a system that's working OK and unlikely to fail when you need it.   We all (at least I do) make that judgement all the time, on a car, a house, or our health. But on something important, this requires a firm line of reasoning, and likely a detailed inspection, to make sure you are not asking for trouble.   So either they skipped the detailed inspection, or the inspection failed to reveal serious existing problems.  Either alternative looks unprofessional, something I've never seen from ULA before.

Tory cannot cut cost by 50% and cut staff by 50% and NOT lose knowledge, expertise and proficiency.
« Last Edit: 10/28/2020 01:23 pm by woods170 »

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #34 on: 10/28/2020 01:29 pm »
 I doubt if somebody just said "Skip the maintenance since it's going away in a few years anyhow" It's more likely they just used a schedule meant for an active system, and not one that sat around unused for a year at a time. The whole thing probably should have been run through it's paces every two months just to keep things circulating. Have you ever flushed or used a hydraulic system that hasn't been active for a year? Seals go bad and unwanted stuff in the fluid settles.
 That equipment all has PM schedules when it's built, and intentionally failing to follow one to save money is pretty hard to believe.
 Not that it would be the first hard to believe thing that actually happened in the industry.

 (Half my job with Chevron was driving all over the Permian basin doing PMs. They were pretty picky about them)
« Last Edit: 10/28/2020 01:35 pm by Nomadd »
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #35 on: 10/28/2020 02:48 pm »
I doubt if somebody just said "Skip the maintenance since it's going away in a few years anyhow" It's more likely they just used a schedule meant for an active system, and not one that sat around unused for a year at a time. The whole thing probably should have been run through it's paces every two months just to keep things circulating.
This seems entirely plausible.  Your family car, for example, recommends maintenance every 6 months or 10,000 km (6000 miles), whichever comes first.   If you just let it sit for 6 months a time, then you meet the formal requirements, but it's likely to fail when you try to use it.  There's an implicit assumption that you are using it at least once a week or so, but this is not mentioned in the owner's manual (at least mine).

You could imagine a bean-counter saying "we'll do the recommended maintenance and no more".  Doubtless lots of folks, such as yourself, thought it should be exercised every few months, as that was the implicit assumptions when it was built.  But it's not in the specs, and it costs money, so it got axed.

Offline dglow

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #36 on: 10/28/2020 05:49 pm »
FWIW, Tory himself claimed only a 30% staff reduction during his recent Space Show interview.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #37 on: 10/28/2020 06:12 pm »
FWIW, Tory himself claimed only a 30% staff reduction during his recent Space Show interview.
Terms get confused a lot. They might have already been 20% undermanned or something, so 30% and 50% reductions could be referring to real people or job positions.
 A big problem is that involuntary reductions are almost always preceded by early retirements, buyouts or whatever, so you tend to lose a lot of old timers that you'd really like to keep.

 I think of undocumented things I was doing to keep the wheels spinning and have to wonder what personnel loss might have had to do with the NROL-44 situation. Giving your outgoing employee a chance to train his replacement doesn't even seem to be a concept in most companies anymore.
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #38 on: 11/20/2020 04:51 am »
Quote
“We never like to have a launch vehicle and a satellite sitting so long,” Bongiovi said. “But we need to make sure we launch when we’re ready,” he said. The priority is to “make sure this launch is successful.”
If CCAFS assigns the DIVH a building number, that's a concern.

ISTR wry jokes about this sort of thing back in the Titan IV years.
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Final Delta IV-Heavy launches
« Reply #39 on: 11/22/2020 01:30 pm »
Quote
“We never like to have a launch vehicle and a satellite sitting so long,” Bongiovi said. “But we need to make sure we launch when we’re ready,” he said. The priority is to “make sure this launch is successful.”
If CCAFS assigns the DIVH a building number, that's a concern.

ISTR wry jokes about this sort of thing back in the Titan IV years.
All joking aside, at some point this becomes a national security concern.  Since the first launch attempt (26 August) China has launched 11 times and Russia 3.

A billion dollar payload with a 10 year life depreciates at more than $3 *per second*.  Of course, if the life limit is fuel, then the time lost sitting on the pad will be regained at the end of its life, but this should be discounted since the satellite will no longer be state of the art. In particular, if it's for signals intelligence (as has been suspected) the systems it is spying on may change a lot in 10 years, making it much less useful. 

 

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