Soyuz-2.1a/Fregat - Meridian-M №11 - Plesetsk 43/X - 202x?

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14411015

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said that another Meridian-M communications satellite wil be launched before the end of the year [2022].

This should be the final Meridian-M of the series.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post; NET 2023:

Per informations of NK forum, there will be no more Russian launches in 2022.

[AndrewM]

Any update on this in the last 2.5 years?

NextSpaceflight has it as NET 2025 but I'm not sure if that's just due to indefinite delays or if there is any actual indication of launch this year.

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/3915

[russianhalo117]

Any update on this in the last 2.5 years?

NextSpaceflight has it as NET 2025 but I'm not sure if that's just due to indefinite delays or if there is any actual indication of launch this year.

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/3915

Launch on Need.

[B. Hendrickx]

Any update on this in the last 2.5 years?

NextSpaceflight has it as NET 2025 but I'm not sure if that's just due to indefinite delays or if there is any actual indication of launch this year.

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/3915

Launch on Need.

Yes, it looks like this satellite is sitting in storage and can be launched any time it is needed.

As can be learned from court documentation, ISS Reshetnev received a contract for the construction of what are likely the two final Meridian-M satellites on May 5, 2020. These have serial numbers 20 and 21. The contract called for finishing production of the first satellite by December 2021 and the second one by October 2022. In the end, nr. 20 was ready by September 2021 and was launched in March 2022 (and designated Meridian 10 in Western listings). One must assume that nr. 21 (Meridian 11) was also finished on or ahead of schedule, that is by or well before October 2022.

These may look like very short production times (certainly by Russian standards), but there are indications that production had in fact already begun under the initial government contract that gave the go-ahead for Meridian-M in March 2016. Although this only covered the launch of satellites nr. 18 and 19 (listed as Meridian 8 and 9), it also envisaged work on two follow-on satellites. Nrs. 18 and 19 were to serve as testbeds for improvements made to the Meridian-M series and nrs. 20 and 21 were considered “operational” versions. A critical new component is identified in documentation only as 14R516-1, presumably the communications payload or part of it.   

Shortly after the launch of Meridian 10 in March 2022, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the next one was expected to be launched before the end of the year (confirming it was nearing the end of production back then). It is most likely still sitting on the ground because Russia still has a constellation of four operational Meridian satellites, which is what is needed to provide full-time coverage. The oldest of those (Meridian 7 or serial nr. 17) is the last of the first-generation Meridian satellites, launched in October 2014. The launch date of Meridian 11 probably hinges very much on the longevity of Meridian 7, although it could also be taken out of storage if any of the more recently launched satellites unexpectedly fails. This is a standard procedure in the Meridian program. New satellites have been launched shortly after older ones had been de-activated. 

One other thing that emerges from court documents is that a contract was signed in April 2020 to adapt the computer and control system of the Fregat upper stage to launch a Meridian-M satellite into an orbit with an argument of perigee of 295° (the argument of perigee is the angle between the ascending node and the perigee point). The contract was concluded between NPO Lavochkin, the manufacturer of Fregat, and the Pilyugin Center, which develops the control system. I understand this relates to Meridian 11 because Meridian 10 has an argument of perigee of around 270° (which is more typical for a Molniya type orbit). Based on this adaptation of the Fregat, one would expect Meridian 11 to be a replacement for Meridian 9, which also had an initial argument of perigee of 295°. However, I presume that the Fregat in question is flexible enough to launch Meridian 11 as a replacement for any satellite that fails first.

The Meridian-M satellites are ultimately supposed to be replaced by the Sfera-V satellites, which were originally expected to have been fielded last decade. The approval of Meridian-M in 2016 was a stopgap measure to bridge the longer-than-expected gap with Sfera-V. Based on the latest available information, the first Sfera-V is still not expected to fly until 2027.