Author Topic: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip  (Read 58281 times)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #60 on: 11/29/2012 08:50 pm »
...But there are many possibilities, e.g. neutral particle beam propulsion - a beam of neutral particles at almost the speed of light is fired at the spacecraft, it ionizes them and then uses magnetic fields to deflect them producing a very high Isp drive. The technology to do that is formidable!...
Yes, my favorite version of beamed propulsion. If you go for only a small fraction of the speed of light, it's a lot more efficient (power-wise). The ideal relative velocity (relative velocity of the neutral particle and craft at impact) for the particles (power-wise) is probably something like twice the velocity of the craft (in the emitter's reference frame). This would be a far more efficient (orders of magnitude more efficient than just pure light) and effective (due to lack of large optics) version of beamed propulsion, IMHO, for interstellar travel.
« Last Edit: 11/29/2012 09:17 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #61 on: 11/29/2012 08:54 pm »
As suggested before, I think the $500,000 per passenger price could be achieved with high-performance light sails acclerated and decelerated by orbital lasers. These "lightcraft" could make the trip in a matter of days / weeks regardless of launch windows.

The laser stations would have to be huge though, in the multi-GW range at least. The advantage is that these lasers could be used at all times. Chemical or solar electric rockets would be much slower and launch window constrained and thus not suitable for a reusable transportation system, which requires a high number of trips to recoup capital costs.
GW? Need much more than a Gigawatt, at least for the kind of payloads and timescales we're talking about. Terawatt, maybe?
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Offline Joel

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #62 on: 11/29/2012 09:00 pm »
But there are many possibilities, e.g. neutral particle beam propulsion

Another possibility is teleportation. Russians perfected this technology long before they perfected oxygen-rich rocket engines. Using ethanol fuel, you get from point A to point B without remembering anything in between. Works great when travelling in Russia.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #63 on: 11/29/2012 09:02 pm »
But there are many possibilities, e.g. neutral particle beam propulsion

Another possibility is teleportation. Russians perfected this technology long before they perfected oxygen-rich rocket engines. Using ethanol fuel, you get from point A to point B without remembering anything in between. Works great when travelling in Russia.

lol
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #64 on: 11/29/2012 09:11 pm »
The ideal velocity for the particles (power-wise) is probably something like twice the relative velocity of the neutral particle and craft at impact.

Yes that is the most efficient, but it may not be the best. Very high particle velocities mean that far fewer of them need to be produced, and it might be easier to collimate them as well.

I first came across this concept in JBIS about 20 years ago, but have seen nothing since. Is there a forum topic on it?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #65 on: 11/29/2012 09:15 pm »
QuantumG: It is true that some sort of medically induced coma or hibernation would make sending people to Mars far more efficient.

Topic:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28109.0

If a Mars colony actually does take off, you'll see this topic discussed quite a bit. Prison colony... Australia II!  ;D
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Offline DLR

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #66 on: 11/29/2012 09:25 pm »
As suggested before, I think the $500,000 per passenger price could be achieved with high-performance light sails acclerated and decelerated by orbital lasers. These "lightcraft" could make the trip in a matter of days / weeks regardless of launch windows.

The laser stations would have to be huge though, in the multi-GW range at least. The advantage is that these lasers could be used at all times. Chemical or solar electric rockets would be much slower and launch window constrained and thus not suitable for a reusable transportation system, which requires a high number of trips to recoup capital costs.
GW? Need much more than a Gigawatt, at least for the kind of payloads and timescales we're talking about. Terawatt, maybe?

Multi-GW! ;)

Of course it depends on the speed and size of the craft ... and the technology used. If your optics are good enough you can utilise one photon several times by bouncing it back and forth between sail and emitter.

http://www.rametzger.com/nonfic-mblbs.htm

I believe that some form of beamed propulsion is our only option to really open up the solar system to rapid human travel (days to weeks instead of months to decades now). Maybe fusion too, but IMO that's less of a given. Sails and lasers merely require advances in engineering. Think 22nd century engineering. Space resources would have to be mined to construct the huge power sats required to produce the beams in orbit.

« Last Edit: 11/29/2012 09:32 pm by DLR »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #67 on: 11/29/2012 09:40 pm »
If a Mars colony actually does take off, you'll see this topic discussed quite a bit. Prison colony... Australia II!  ;D

Slave colony... America II!  ;D
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #68 on: 11/29/2012 09:55 pm »
If a Mars colony actually does take off, you'll see this topic discussed quite a bit. Prison colony... Australia II!  ;D

Slave colony... America II!  ;D

Low blow! Low blow! (But touche nonetheless)
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #69 on: 11/29/2012 09:56 pm »
As suggested before, I think the $500,000 per passenger price could be achieved with high-performance light sails acclerated and decelerated by orbital lasers. These "lightcraft" could make the trip in a matter of days / weeks regardless of launch windows.

The laser stations would have to be huge though, in the multi-GW range at least. The advantage is that these lasers could be used at all times. Chemical or solar electric rockets would be much slower and launch window constrained and thus not suitable for a reusable transportation system, which requires a high number of trips to recoup capital costs.
GW? Need much more than a Gigawatt, at least for the kind of payloads and timescales we're talking about. Terawatt, maybe?

Multi-GW! ;)

Of course it depends on the speed and size of the craft ... and the technology used. If your optics are good enough you can utilise one photon several times by bouncing it back and forth between sail and emitter. ...

Not feasible, or your sail would get really, really heavy really fast.

Again, light for propulsion is very, very power inefficient. Neutral particle (or slightly charged dust) propulsion is much more efficient.
« Last Edit: 11/29/2012 09:57 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline LegendCJS

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #70 on: 11/30/2012 12:51 am »
When Elon finally divulges the details of his Mars plan you will find that the propulsion technology will involve only chemical rockets burning methane fuel, plus whatever they chose for RCS systems.  This discussion of NIAC-land concepts is off topic.

Elon said in an interview that the $500k price is predicated on methane because it is the cheapest fuel.

I add that the ticket price is one way, based on a line from a SpaceX employee giving a presentation (during questions afterward) that the $500k ticket price is "one way."

When asked if people could return from Mars he said that he felt that answering that question was Elon's job, not his, but he did add that the feasibility of the system architecture was dependent on every element being reusable... and left it at that.
Also given as an answer to a question was a line that hardware elements of the plan "could" be refuel on Mars, but that it wasn't in the baseline.  My impression was that it was a nice to have but not needed for the $500k price calculation.
« Last Edit: 11/30/2012 01:05 am by LegendCJS »
Remember: if we want this whole space thing to work out we have to optimize for cost!

Offline mlindner

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #71 on: 11/30/2012 01:21 am »
As suggested before, I think the $500,000 per passenger price could be achieved with high-performance light sails acclerated and decelerated by orbital lasers. These "lightcraft" could make the trip in a matter of days / weeks regardless of launch windows.

The laser stations would have to be huge though, in the multi-GW range at least. The advantage is that these lasers could be used at all times. Chemical or solar electric rockets would be much slower and launch window constrained and thus not suitable for a reusable transportation system, which requires a high number of trips to recoup capital costs.
GW? Need much more than a Gigawatt, at least for the kind of payloads and timescales we're talking about. Terawatt, maybe?
Of course it depends on the speed and size of the craft ... and the technology used. If your optics are good enough you can utilise one photon several times by bouncing it back and forth between sail and emitter.
Whoa hold on. My alarms for perpetual energy claims are going off. How does bouncing it multiple times solve anything? One bounce won't get you anything less than 1000 bounces.
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline LegendCJS

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #72 on: 11/30/2012 01:57 am »
As suggested before, I think the $500,000 per passenger price could be achieved with high-performance light sails acclerated and decelerated by orbital lasers. These "lightcraft" could make the trip in a matter of days / weeks regardless of launch windows.

The laser stations would have to be huge though, in the multi-GW range at least. The advantage is that these lasers could be used at all times. Chemical or solar electric rockets would be much slower and launch window constrained and thus not suitable for a reusable transportation system, which requires a high number of trips to recoup capital costs.
GW? Need much more than a Gigawatt, at least for the kind of payloads and timescales we're talking about. Terawatt, maybe?
Of course it depends on the speed and size of the craft ... and the technology used. If your optics are good enough you can utilise one photon several times by bouncing it back and forth between sail and emitter.
Whoa hold on. My alarms for perpetual energy claims are going off. How does bouncing it multiple times solve anything? One bounce won't get you anything less than 1000 bounces.
I'd assume that the frequency of the photon drops on each bounce, so that is where the energy is coming from, but I admit this is not my strong suite.
Remember: if we want this whole space thing to work out we have to optimize for cost!

Offline mlindner

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #73 on: 11/30/2012 02:31 am »
As suggested before, I think the $500,000 per passenger price could be achieved with high-performance light sails acclerated and decelerated by orbital lasers. These "lightcraft" could make the trip in a matter of days / weeks regardless of launch windows.

The laser stations would have to be huge though, in the multi-GW range at least. The advantage is that these lasers could be used at all times. Chemical or solar electric rockets would be much slower and launch window constrained and thus not suitable for a reusable transportation system, which requires a high number of trips to recoup capital costs.
GW? Need much more than a Gigawatt, at least for the kind of payloads and timescales we're talking about. Terawatt, maybe?
Of course it depends on the speed and size of the craft ... and the technology used. If your optics are good enough you can utilise one photon several times by bouncing it back and forth between sail and emitter.
Whoa hold on. My alarms for perpetual energy claims are going off. How does bouncing it multiple times solve anything? One bounce won't get you anything less than 1000 bounces.
I'd assume that the frequency of the photon drops on each bounce, so that is where the energy is coming from, but I admit this is not my strong suite.
Except that applies on the bounce to get it back to the sail too... which pushes you backward.
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #74 on: 11/30/2012 03:03 am »
I add that the ticket price is one way, based on a line from a SpaceX employee giving a presentation (during questions afterward) that the $500k ticket price is "one way."

Nope.

Quote
The key I was trying to figure out was, with volume, is it possible to get the cost of moving to Mars down to under half a million dollars, which is I think is - no-one can argue about the exact threshold, but I think that is about the threshold which enough people would save up money and move to Mars. I mean, that's how America got created, basically. They can come back if they like, if they don't like it, of course. You get a free return ticket. There's sometimes a debate about going to Mars one-way and whether that makes things easier, and I think for the initial flights perhaps, but long term, to get the cost down, you need the spacecraft back. Whether the people come back is irrelevant, but you must have the ship back because those things are expensive. So anyone who wants to return can just jump on.

http://shitelonsays.com/index.php/transcript/elon-musk-the-future-of-energy-and-transport-2012-11-14
« Last Edit: 11/30/2012 03:04 am by QuantumG »
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline LegendCJS

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #75 on: 11/30/2012 04:46 am »
I add that the ticket price is one way, based on a line from a SpaceX employee giving a presentation (during questions afterward) that the $500k ticket price is "one way."

Nope.

Quote
The key I was trying to figure out was, with volume, is it possible to get the cost of moving to Mars down to under half a million dollars, which is I think is - no-one can argue about the exact threshold, but I think that is about the threshold which enough people would save up money and move to Mars. I mean, that's how America got created, basically. They can come back if they like, if they don't like it, of course. You get a free return ticket. There's sometimes a debate about going to Mars one-way and whether that makes things easier, and I think for the initial flights perhaps, but long term, to get the cost down, you need the spacecraft back. Whether the people come back is irrelevant, but you must have the ship back because those things are expensive. So anyone who wants to return can just jump on.

http://shitelonsays.com/index.php/transcript/elon-musk-the-future-of-energy-and-transport-2012-11-14
We are both right.  The cost to get there: $500k.  That is the ticket price.  Nothing above says any differently.  The fully reusable bit we both mention is the explanation of why the returning trip happens anyway, so the marginal cost of a passenger on the return trip is essentially just food and water.
Remember: if we want this whole space thing to work out we have to optimize for cost!

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #76 on: 11/30/2012 07:48 am »
Elon is talking about establishing a colony, not a holiday resort, so the people he's thinking of transporting are colonists, not tourists. Colonist will intend to stay for life, so the aim will be to get them there as cheaply as possible, which means a six-month journey. A few months extra for the trip is irrelevant compared with the decades you expect to be living there.

Yes, it won't work out for some people who will want to come back. The free return ticket comes from the fact that they'll want the spacecraft back from Mars to reuse it, and the odd passenger is not significant (if a high proportion of people want to come back, then this would become problematic). I suspect that you may get a free return ticket, but that you won't be able to use it until you've stayed on Mars for, say, five years (with possible exceptions for medical and other emergencies).

As for the transport, I suspect that the booster and braking rockets won't make the journey! They'll detach and return to Earth (initially, later including Mars) orbit, ready to be refuelled and used for the next craft to leave or arrive. If you time it right, the booster for one flight can meet a returning craft to brake it into LEO.

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #77 on: 11/30/2012 12:16 pm »
I think that the most important part would be to first raise the temperature and the pressure on mars. That could be done within 100 years, given enough investment (about 200 nuclear factories would be needed).

Offline DLR

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #78 on: 11/30/2012 12:45 pm »
$500,000 per trip with chemical propulsion, sounds impossible. To the Moon perhaps, but not to Mars. The problem is launch windows. If we assume a twenty-year service life for the reusable transfer vehicle, the number of round trips it could make would still be only 7 or 8 (unless it launches at conjunction AND opposition).

Imagine throwing away a Boeing 747 after eight flights!

A spacecraft which is coasting between Earth and Mars and has to loiter at Mars for more than a year doesn't make any money at that time.
« Last Edit: 11/30/2012 12:50 pm by DLR »

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: $500,000 Pricetag for Mars Trip
« Reply #79 on: 11/30/2012 12:48 pm »
Personally, I would be happy to see a ticket to orbit for 500k within my lifetime...
I think for actual mars colonization on a grand scale we still need a technical breakthrough. My biggest hopes for that are in nuclear fusion.

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