Poll

How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?

1
0 (0%)
2
1 (1.4%)
3
0 (0%)
4
2 (2.7%)
5
6 (8.1%)
6
13 (17.6%)
7
11 (14.9%)
8
12 (16.2%)
9
11 (14.9%)
10
11 (14.9%)
11
1 (1.4%)
12
3 (4.1%)
13
2 (2.7%)
14
0 (0%)
15
0 (0%)
16+
1 (1.4%)

Total Members Voted: 74

Voting closed: 06/13/2018 02:56 pm


Author Topic: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?  (Read 4478 times)

Offline gongora

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How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« on: 05/14/2018 02:56 pm »
Now that Block 5, the more easily reusable block, is in service how many of the new Block 5 boosters do you think SpaceX will fly this year?  Factors will include getting the production rate up again after the slowdown for Block 5 introduction, how fast SpaceX starts reusing the boosters, how many customers still insist on new boosters, and how many times SpaceX actually flies this year.

Offline envy887

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #1 on: 05/14/2018 03:04 pm »
3 new FH cores would be counted as 3 separate new booster flights, right?

Offline mme

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #2 on: 05/14/2018 03:09 pm »
3 new FH cores would be counted as 3 separate new booster flights, right?
Oh man, I forgot about the FH when I made my guess. And good question!
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline gongora

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #3 on: 05/14/2018 03:29 pm »
3 new FH cores would be counted as 3 separate new booster flights, right?

Yes.  One reason I picked 10.  I probably would have picked higher if I was convinced they could produce more in time for 2018 flights.  I think they'll top out around 26-27 flights for the year if they get some combination of high enough vehicle production and high enough acceptance rate of reused vehicles to cover the available payloads.  I don't think they'll have payloads for 30 flights unless Zuma has some cousins.  It will be interesting to see how many of these GTO flights over the next few months go on new boosters.

Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #4 on: 05/14/2018 03:47 pm »
I was optimistic about reuse rates and picked 8, but I forgot about falcon heavy too. With FH in mind I'd add one or two more.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #5 on: 05/14/2018 03:50 pm »
I guessed 9.

27 flights this year, 10 not block 5 (8 done, 2 to go). If 2 more FH flights then that’s 21 block 5 booster flights. I’m going with 2 flights each plus 2 or 3 flying more than twice. I don’t see any issue getting customers willing to fly flight proven boosters.

Offline gongora

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #6 on: 05/14/2018 04:03 pm »
I guessed 9.

27 flights this year, 10 not block 5 (8 done, 2 to go). If 2 more FH flights then that’s 21 block 5 booster flights. I’m going with 2 flights each plus 2 or 3 flying more than twice. I don’t see any issue getting customers willing to fly flight proven boosters.

The acceptance of reused boosters has been pretty good so far, I'm just wondering how quickly the transition to reusing Block 5 boosters is going to happen.  That block changeover could cause some slight delays.  Once reused Block 5's are flying then they should be able to get most of their customers to use them.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #7 on: 05/14/2018 05:06 pm »
I go with 9.

Simple proportion:
Since SpaceX started reuse, they launched 13 new cores in 12 months (mid March 2017 - mid March 2018).
So - they produced 13 new cores in 12 months.
It seems safe to suppose the production rate stays the same - for now and near future.
Then it looks real to have ready for launch 8 more new block 5 cores by the end of 2018.

Offline deruch

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #8 on: 05/16/2018 08:07 am »
8.  The 7 NASA wants plus 1 Block 5 center core for FH.  The rest will be reused boosters.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #9 on: 05/16/2018 05:35 pm »
8
This is the estimate of the booster production rate at a flight rate for a year of 30

Instead of 6 boosters SpaceX would produce 12 additional US. For a total number of US of 30. This is from a manufacture rate of 18 US and booster pairs.

So far this year SpaceX has reached a reflight rate on boosters of 60% used to total boosters flown. This production rate for BLK 5 boosters is a reflection of a reflight rate at least for the rest of this year of 60% for BLK 5 boosters.

The result is 1 new BLK 5 manufactured each month . For May through December (8 months) that’s 8 boosters.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #10 on: 11/12/2019 06:28 am »
Never updated this poll with the result!

6 was indeed the correct answer (B1046, 1047, 1048, 1049, 1050 & 1054)

Offline Lar

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Re: How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?
« Reply #11 on: 12/20/2019 02:23 am »
Never updated this poll with the result!

6 was indeed the correct answer (B1046, 1047, 1048, 1049, 1050 & 1054)
I suppose it's too late to ask for a 2019 version? :)
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