OrbitalATK bids something but what? Antares can't do it. Third time's the charm for Liberty?Airbus? They have money and experience and are expanding their manufacturing footprint in the US. A partner for AR?Yuzhnoye? I'm assuming Yuzhnoye is either headed "east" or to the scrap heap. But maybe someone buys the equipment and IP for scrap prices and ships it to the US? Not likely but crazy things happen (Aerojet bought the NK-33s). They would need engines.
For the purposes of this thread I'm assuming we'll see something like the NASA CRS model where offerors bid a matrix of missions and prices and the government awards each offeror a portfolio of launches with at least a minimum number of missions.
Quote from: arachnitect on 05/26/2015 02:09 amOrbitalATK bids something but what? Antares can't do it. Third time's the charm for Liberty?Airbus? They have money and experience and are expanding their manufacturing footprint in the US. A partner for AR?Yuzhnoye? I'm assuming Yuzhnoye is either headed "east" or to the scrap heap. But maybe someone buys the equipment and IP for scrap prices and ships it to the US? Not likely but crazy things happen (Aerojet bought the NK-33s). They would need engines.Non starters. US content has to be over 50% and likely closer 100% for NSS missions.
Airbus builds helicopters in the US and was going to build tankers here. I think it's unlikely they'd set up a rocket factory in the US but I think they could get around the rules.
Aerojet Rocketdyne bids something on AR-1 It's unlikely AR forces Atlas V into their hands. Who else could they work with? Perhaps they form a partnership with someone else? Perhaps they find a financier willing to bet the farm on turning them into a vertically integrated launch services company?
Would it be practical or competitive for Aerojet Rocketdyne to bring back something similar to the McDonnell Douglas NLS II/III proposals, incorporating 1-2 RS-25E and strap-on solids, with an RL-10 based upper stage? It leverages SLS development of the STME, but it would probably need a whole new launch infrastructure -- though maybe existing hydrolox plumbing could be rerouted at old Delta pads to reduce the overall amount of work required?http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31873.5
Non starters. US content has to be over 50% and likely closer 100% for NSS missions.
Doesn't that leave out Atlas V with it's Russian engine? Since the engine alone is more than 50% of the cost of the 1st stage (per Bruno infographic), I'd say for Atlas V it would be nowhere close to 100%. Plus Russia has never been as close to us politically as Europe and Japan have been.I think what we've already seen is that the Air Force will be flexible if they have to be.
I guess what I'm getting at is the question of how realistic is the possibility of future NSS launches being provided by an entity other than spacex and ULA?