at the cost level necessary, the first mars samples will be the last ones for awhile. but we are not all the close to having any at all...maybe 20 years away
I think that once Mars 2020 is on the surface collecting samples, the momentum is going to increase. That includes international momentum. NASA can go to ESA and JAXA and say "We have samples right now that are collected and awaiting return. Would you like to look at them? Then join us in a retrieval mission." That's a powerful argument.
Quote from: Blackstar on 07/24/2018 11:20 pmI think that once Mars 2020 is on the surface collecting samples, the momentum is going to increase. That includes international momentum. NASA can go to ESA and JAXA and say "We have samples right now that are collected and awaiting return. Would you like to look at them? Then join us in a retrieval mission." That's a powerful argument.ESA has been interested in working with NASA on a sample return for at least a decade. There was a formal series of collaborations on studies in the last decade for a potential joint sample return. That effort was cancelled (by NASA if memory serves me correctly). Presentations at the recent Berlin sample return conference from ESA presenters make several references to that prior effort.
Yes, they're interested now. But my point is that when NASA is actually collecting the stuff, it will focus everybody's attention a lot more.
Also, very recently, there's now the prospect of the Martian South Pole harboring brine lakes. Assuming planetary protection allows it, would sampling that water become the next priority post-2020/MSR 1.0?
Quote from: Blackstar on 07/25/2018 09:35 pmYes, they're interested now. But my point is that when NASA is actually collecting the stuff, it will focus everybody's attention a lot more.Assuming such interest and a 2nd sampling mission desired, do you think they'd repeat the same strategy or attempt to streamline it? If the rover program is an analogy, in just under 2 decades we went from airbags and Sojourner to skycranes and Curiosity. Would they try to improve MSR 2.0? Granted, this is a longshot question...
What does "streamline" actually mean? They are already pursuing a more focused strategy.
Quote from: redliox on 07/25/2018 09:45 pmQuote from: Blackstar on 07/25/2018 09:35 pmYes, they're interested now. But my point is that when NASA is actually collecting the stuff, it will focus everybody's attention a lot more.Assuming such interest and a 2nd sampling mission desired, do you think they'd repeat the same strategy or attempt to streamline it? If the rover program is an analogy, in just under 2 decades we went from airbags and Sojourner to skycranes and Curiosity. Would they try to improve MSR 2.0? Granted, this is a longshot question...What does "streamline" actually mean? They are already pursuing a more focused strategy.
Probably something like this:
I'm sure you'd heard Zubrin squawk about direct return heavily.
Zubrin has no involvement/influence in Mars programs.
I forgot about that. I wonder if I still have that placard? (After all, I took the photo.)Zubrin's really more of an entertainer. He doesn't have influence. The things he has said and done in the past, and his general demeanor, have limited his ability to have influence. He's dismissed the space medicine community by saying that their research stems from Nazi experiments. Why would any medical research expert listen to him after that? He's said similar inflammatory things about various aspects of space engineering. And he's said some really nutty things about NASA management. After all that, nobody who controls budgets or policies wants to listen to him.Bringing this a bit back on topic, I think I've read some of his comments, or heard them, about Mars sample return. He is dismissive of it. He does not think it is necessary. He's never really embraced the idea of precursor missions to scout out landing sites, determine the conditions at Mars, identify resources, etc. His attitude has always been "Let's just go!" which is great for rallying crowds of Mars enthusiasts, but for a human space program it's a bit like heading out into a desert before checking to see if you have enough water.
Quote from: redliox on 07/25/2018 09:46 pmAlso, very recently, there's now the prospect of the Martian South Pole harboring brine lakes. Assuming planetary protection allows it, would sampling that water become the next priority post-2020/MSR 1.0?The lake is 1.5 km under the ice cap. So it would need to be a heck of a rover to drill down that far.
Belated post; follow-on posts up-thread:ESA and NASA to Investigate Bringing Martian Soil to Earth, dated April 26, 2018ESA and NASA signed a statement of intent today to explore concepts for missions to bring samples of martian soil to Earth.