Total Members Voted: 74
Voting closed: 04/22/2018 02:54 am
My question is - by the end of 2030, how low do you think a ticket price for a single person to either ISS or equivalent space station/platform will cost?
...And since the ISS is far closer than Mars, that means the prices to LEO should be lower than the prices for Mars.
If you believe that BFS is ever safe enough to carry passengers, this pretty much inherently means you believe that it's got a probability of 1% or under of killing the passengers.
This is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices. Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.
But to speak to the thread title "When will it cost <$5m to get to LEO for a spaceflight participant?"Simple. When there is competition to do so. Then we will start to see prices begin to fall.
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.
I think your initial question of 'what is the predicted ticket price at time X" is an interesting one and substantially different than your current question of "when does the ticket price get to price Y or less" .
Quote from: AbuSimbel on 03/23/2018 03:42 pmThis is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices. Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn. And that isn't true. I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other optionsSo, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn
Quote from: AbuSimbel on 03/23/2018 03:42 pmNo other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.I question this somewhat.In principle, FH, with an oversized dragon-like commercial capsule could get to $5M.This would 'only' require man-rating of FH and manufacture of such a capsule.
Also a Dragon 2 + F9 Commercial crew launch costs several hundred M$, IMO it would be more technically challenging to build a capsule that's way bigger than D2, way more reusable than D2 to be cost effective and flyable on FH than to just build the BFR (or change its design if it turns out to be too challenging).
I think SpaceX could do under 5 million with Falcon 9 and Dragon 2 reuse. May not happen, but I think that architecture is sufficient.
Quote from: Political Hack Wannabe on 03/23/2018 04:51 pmQuote from: AbuSimbel on 03/23/2018 03:42 pmThis is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices. Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn. And that isn't true. I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other optionsSo, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn<5M$ per person means you have to launch the rocket + the capsule to orbit and back for 30M$ if it's a traditional system with a 6-7 person crew. To achieve this operational reusability is required. The other (and even more cost efficient) way is to develop much bigger human rated capsules with low cost reusable HLVs capable of launching them. I fail to see any organization in the world capable of and willing to offer those capabilities a part from SX and BO. Which other options are you thinking about?
Quote from: AbuSimbel on 03/23/2018 05:20 pmQuote from: Political Hack Wannabe on 03/23/2018 04:51 pmQuote from: AbuSimbel on 03/23/2018 03:42 pmThis is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices. Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn. And that isn't true. I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other optionsSo, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn<5M$ per person means you have to launch the rocket + the capsule to orbit and back for 30M$ if it's a traditional system with a 6-7 person crew. To achieve this operational reusability is required. The other (and even more cost efficient) way is to develop much bigger human rated capsules with low cost reusable HLVs capable of launching them. I fail to see any organization in the world capable of and willing to offer those capabilities a part from SX and BO. Which other options are you thinking about?The ones I know of are not public, unfortunately. But there are others working on low priced launch
Quote from: Political Hack Wannabe on 03/23/2018 07:56 pmQuote from: AbuSimbel on 03/23/2018 05:20 pmQuote from: Political Hack Wannabe on 03/23/2018 04:51 pmQuote from: AbuSimbel on 03/23/2018 03:42 pmThis is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices. Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn. And that isn't true. I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other optionsSo, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn<5M$ per person means you have to launch the rocket + the capsule to orbit and back for 30M$ if it's a traditional system with a 6-7 person crew. To achieve this operational reusability is required. The other (and even more cost efficient) way is to develop much bigger human rated capsules with low cost reusable HLVs capable of launching them. I fail to see any organization in the world capable of and willing to offer those capabilities a part from SX and BO. Which other options are you thinking about?The ones I know of are not public, unfortunately. But there are others working on low priced launchWow, this is very promising for HSF.May I ask if they're big, established players or new ones/startups?
I'm pretty pro-space-awesomeness, but I voted after 2029. That is only 11 years away, and it'll take time for seats to get cheaper.I could be wrong, here.
Perhaps the poll may go on forever, but I’d prefer it if the “l”’s didn’t...(Before I get the “huh?” comment from a mod - I mean, please fix the typo in the thread’s title)
Bypassing the issue of safety, because I agree with your major points on it. I accept your point of that is a requirement for prices to come down. What is your timeframe for that happening?
About 30-50 Block 5s are planned. Dependent on how many customers demand to launch on a new rocket.Right now, flight-proven F9s are priced at $50 million USD. New boosters are $60 million USD.
QuoteMusk: Propellant for a launch is only about $300,000 or $400,000. Still hoping to get the marginal cost of a Falcon 9 launch down to $5-$6 million.https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/994652039006359552
Musk: Propellant for a launch is only about $300,000 or $400,000. Still hoping to get the marginal cost of a Falcon 9 launch down to $5-$6 million.