Poll

When will a ticket price to LEO cost less than $5 million?

2020
2 (2.7%)
2021
2 (2.7%)
2022
9 (12.2%)
2023
3 (4.1%)
2024
10 (13.5%)
2025
18 (24.3%)
2026
3 (4.1%)
2027
5 (6.8%)
2028
6 (8.1%)
2029
0 (0%)
After 2029
16 (21.6%)

Total Members Voted: 74

Voting closed: 04/22/2018 02:54 am


Author Topic: How soon will launch prices go down?  (Read 8989 times)

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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How soon will launch prices go down?
« on: 03/22/2018 09:39 pm »
Ok, so I am wondering people's opinion about how "stuck" launch costs are.  I acknowledge that it's not necessarily easy to disentangle the actual launch cost of a rocket (whether you want to factor in things like developmental costs, or other things).  And this gets worse for human spaceflight

However, we have a "rough" order of magnitude of a ticket to ISS - current number is around $75 M a seat.

My question is - by the end of 2030, how low do you think a ticket price for a single person to either ISS or equivalent space station/platform will cost?


Alright, based on comments, I am modifying the poll.  BTW - my request still stands to the mods, although I see someone decided it needed a time limit.  Can that be changed back, please? 

 (Also, mods, a request - please don't limit the poll time length.  I'd rather leave it)
« Last Edit: 03/27/2018 03:29 pm by Political Hack Wannabe »
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Offline speedevil

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Re: How low can launch costs go in the next ten years
« Reply #1 on: 03/22/2018 11:34 pm »
If you believe that BFS is ever safe enough to carry passengers, this pretty much inherently means you believe that it's got a probability of 1% or under of killing the passengers.

This means that the capital cost of the rocket is  under some couple of million, and it can easily carry a hundred people, leading to a cost of capital per person of some 20K.
Fuel is not meaningfull at this level, and if we believe the cost of refurbishment is 20K per passenger too, that leads to costs in the region of 40K, meaning a ticket price of 100K is hard to avoid unless you start to assume extra surcharges on the ticket.

It is plausible in the near term - 10 years - that ticket prices could hit 100K IMO.
The optimistic case is an explosive growth of BFR, driven by a very rapid ramp of P2P and Starlink, which might take it down to more like 5K than 100K.
I think as high as $5M is unlikely, even in the absence of BFR, in the slightly longer term, due to Blue, though I don't believe they are likely to have ramped by 2027.

I believe by 2027 that launch and landing prices (not counting any destination costs) will be considerably under $500K, perhaps with a slight bump for delivering you to somewhere in orbit.
My optimistic guess is $20K.
« Last Edit: 03/22/2018 11:37 pm by speedevil »

Offline Lar

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Re: How low can launch costs go in the next ten years
« Reply #2 on: 03/23/2018 01:56 am »
Your poll is ill formed, it doesn't go low enough. I voted under 5M but would have voted under 200K if that was available.

Per Speedevil's analysis.

I fixed the sense of your sign on that last choice and set the poll to end in 30 days.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: How low can launch costs go in the next ten years
« Reply #3 on: 03/23/2018 02:55 am »
My question is - by the end of 2030, how low do you think a ticket price for a single person to either ISS or equivalent space station/platform will cost?

Elon Musk said back in 2016 that a round-trip price to Mars would be about $200,000, and that it could ultimately drop to $100,000. And since the ISS is far closer than Mars, that means the prices to LEO should be lower than the prices for Mars.

So based on that I agree with Lar, that the poll range does not go low enough.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline speedevil

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Re: How low can launch costs go in the next ten years
« Reply #4 on: 03/23/2018 03:05 am »
...
And since the ISS is far closer than Mars, that means the prices to LEO should be lower than the prices for Mars.
As context, the price given for the passenger service - long-haul - is around $1000. (Plus or minus 50%)

This is basically a fully orbital trajectory, not easier in any way than a flight to a spacestation.
There may be some extra delay in loading and offloading passengers and docking which make it a little more expensive as the vehicle can't fly so often.

So, that extra delay makes the vehicle cost a little more to operate - but only a little.

In ten years - well - it would surprise me greatly that it had happened 5 years before the time I believe it may have happened, but not hugely otherwise.



Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #5 on: 03/23/2018 02:57 pm »
Ok, so I substantially modified the poll, please revote
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Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #6 on: 03/23/2018 03:10 pm »
I'm not as optimistic prices will come down that fast.   I don't think it will be before 2030 so I don't have any choice to vote.

This is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices.
Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.
This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.
Also I suspect both those system aim to launch much more than 6-7 people per flight so, especially for BFR, the ticket price will easily be way less than 5 M$, relatively soon.

So the poll is really asking: when do you think BFR and/or New Glenn will be launching tourists?

My guess is that 2024-25 is the planned timeline for both systems. And for New Glenn it will probably be very hard to compete, especially if they won't develop a reusable 2nd stage.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2018 03:48 pm by AbuSimbel »
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Offline Lar

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #8 on: 03/23/2018 03:58 pm »
Why do you want this poll open forever? It's not how we normally do things but I can be persuaded if you're actually persuasive.  Did you reset all the votes when you competely changed the sense of the poll? Kind of wastes the time of those who voted initially.  I think your initial question of 'what is the predicted ticket price at time X" is an interesting one and substantially different than  your current question of "when does the ticket price get to price Y or less" . Better to have just started a new poll instead of what you did I think.

Please modify your thread title to remove the "modified the poll" from it, that is completely irrelevant, or will be next week.
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: How low can launch costs go in the next ten years
« Reply #9 on: 03/23/2018 04:21 pm »
If you believe that BFS is ever safe enough to carry passengers, this pretty much inherently means you believe that it's got a probability of 1% or under of killing the passengers.
The shuttle flew 135 times. It catastrophically failed twice and killed 14 people in the process.

That's what a 1.48% flight failure rate looks like. Much like an ELV flight failure rate.

Flight safety will have to rise a lot

Obviously a fully reusable TSTO should do better, and I think we all expect it will do better.
But that loss rate has to fall order of magnitude to open up space access. HSF is not just a death trap by 21st century flying standards I think it's a death trap by the standards of the 1920's as well.  :(

But to speak to the thread title "When will it cost <$5m to get to LEO for a spaceflight participant?"
Simple. When there is competition to do so.
Then we will start to see prices begin to fall.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2018 04:26 pm by john smith 19 »
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Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #10 on: 03/23/2018 04:51 pm »
This is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices.
Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.
This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.

Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn.  And that isn't true.  I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other options

So, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn
It's not democrats vs republicans, it's reality vs innumerate space cadet fantasy.

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: How low can launch costs go in the next ten years
« Reply #11 on: 03/23/2018 05:01 pm »

Bypassing the issue of safety, because I agree with your major points on it. 

But to speak to the thread title "When will it cost <$5m to get to LEO for a spaceflight participant?"
Simple. When there is competition to do so.
Then we will start to see prices begin to fall.

I accept your point of that is a requirement for prices to come down.  What is your timeframe for that happening? 
It's not democrats vs republicans, it's reality vs innumerate space cadet fantasy.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #12 on: 03/23/2018 05:05 pm »
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.

I question this somewhat.
In principle, FH, with an oversized dragon-like commercial capsule could get to $5M.
This would 'only' require man-rating of FH and manufacture of such a capsule.

This is extraordinarily unlikely to happen, but you can get short LEO flights barely below $5M if you put up 15 or so people in a cramped capsule, and a small expandable beam-like habitat.

It doesn't hard require BFR or other fully reusable vehicles, but would require you to be able to book quite a few flights fully to pay it off.
500K would require next generation launchers.

Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #13 on: 03/23/2018 05:08 pm »
I think your initial question of 'what is the predicted ticket price at time X" is an interesting one and substantially different than  your current question of "when does the ticket price get to price Y or less" .

They are different.  There is a specific question I am trying to get to, but I couldn't come up with an easy way to articulate it in a format that would work with with the poll option.  The specific issue/question is when do we expect to see a major price reduction in launch costs.  The problem is that, as I turned this around in my head, I struggled with wording that works with the poll option.  So, I initially decided to pick a date, and see what level people thought it would be at that date.  After seeing some of the responses, I am realizing that writing it that way didn't get to my question.  So, I tried it again, with the new question. 

A big part of this is that figuring the right metric for launch costs isn't easy - People have tried price per pound, but that misses the mark because we run into the issue that larger vehicles do lower the price per pound, but their total cost may be substantially more.  And for things like SLS/Shuttle, what part of the infrastructure and past costs do you have to also amortize in? 

Anyway, that is why I changed the question
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Offline mme

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #14 on: 03/23/2018 05:13 pm »
I voted 2024 which I think is optimistic but possible. But how about a "Never" option? I know after 2029 sort of fits the bill but I'm pretty sure that their are people on this forum that think low cost access to space is impossible.

@Lar Or does adding Never reset or otherwise mess up the poll?
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

This is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices.
Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.
This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.

Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn.  And that isn't true.  I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other options

So, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn

<5M$ per person means you have to launch the rocket + the capsule to orbit and back for 30M$ if it's a traditional system with a 6-7 person crew. To achieve this operational reusability is required. The other (and even more cost efficient) way is to develop much bigger human rated capsules with low cost reusable HLVs capable of launching them. I fail to see any organization in the world capable of and willing to offer those capabilities a part from SX and BO.
Which other options are you thinking about?

No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.

I question this somewhat.
In principle, FH, with an oversized dragon-like commercial capsule could get to $5M.
This would 'only' require man-rating of FH and manufacture of such a capsule.


To me this isn't a viable possibility in the real world, because SpaceX would never develop this, even if they were struggling with BFR, as it would have very high costs and limited (and very risky) applications. In the end it all comes to when/if New Glenn or BFR (or similarly capable vehicles that aren't currently planned) get to fly.
 But given how those two are the only in active development they're also overwhelmingly more likely to achieve the <5M$ ticket price target in this poll's timeframe than any other theoretical alternative.

Also a Dragon 2 + F9 Commercial crew launch costs several hundred M$, IMO it would be more technically challenging to build a capsule that's way bigger than D2, way more reusable than D2 to be cost effective and flyable on FH than to just build the BFR (or change its design if it turns out to be too challenging).
« Last Edit: 03/23/2018 05:25 pm by AbuSimbel »
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Offline speedevil

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #16 on: 03/23/2018 05:41 pm »
Also a Dragon 2 + F9 Commercial crew launch costs several hundred M$, IMO it would be more technically challenging to build a capsule that's way bigger than D2, way more reusable than D2 to be cost effective and flyable on FH than to just build the BFR (or change its design if it turns out to be too challenging).

In principle a half billion dev costs, and ten million per flight capsule refurb could pay back in times investors have been convinced to invest in in the past, certainly someone with a lot of money could bankroll it.

You would have to be barking mad to do this.

The margins for BFR are so enormously better, and your 'capsule' development for tourists would pretty much only involve interior designers.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #17 on: 03/23/2018 06:13 pm »
I think SpaceX could do under 5 million with Falcon 9 and Dragon 2 reuse. May not happen, but I think that architecture is sufficient.

I think SpaceX could do under 5 million with Falcon 9 and Dragon 2 reuse. May not happen, but I think that architecture is sufficient.
Even without propulsive landing?
In this NASA document they estimate 300M$ of recurring costs per Dragon 2 (excluding LV costs) for commercial crew (a full CC mission would be more than 400M$)... I know that CC costs are inflated but going from 300M$ for the capsule + launch costs to 30M$ per mission is a giant leap. And even if launch costs get down with partial reuse I don't see Dragon 2 recurring costs going from 300M$ to <10M$, especially without propulsive landing (which has been ruled out).
« Last Edit: 03/23/2018 07:46 pm by AbuSimbel »
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Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #19 on: 03/23/2018 07:56 pm »
This is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices.
Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.
This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.

Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn.  And that isn't true.  I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other options

So, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn

<5M$ per person means you have to launch the rocket + the capsule to orbit and back for 30M$ if it's a traditional system with a 6-7 person crew. To achieve this operational reusability is required. The other (and even more cost efficient) way is to develop much bigger human rated capsules with low cost reusable HLVs capable of launching them. I fail to see any organization in the world capable of and willing to offer those capabilities a part from SX and BO.
Which other options are you thinking about?
The ones I know of are not public, unfortunately.  But there are others working on low priced launch
It's not democrats vs republicans, it's reality vs innumerate space cadet fantasy.

This is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices.
Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.
This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.

Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn.  And that isn't true.  I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other options

So, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn

<5M$ per person means you have to launch the rocket + the capsule to orbit and back for 30M$ if it's a traditional system with a 6-7 person crew. To achieve this operational reusability is required. The other (and even more cost efficient) way is to develop much bigger human rated capsules with low cost reusable HLVs capable of launching them. I fail to see any organization in the world capable of and willing to offer those capabilities a part from SX and BO.
Which other options are you thinking about?
The ones I know of are not public, unfortunately.  But there are others working on low priced launch
Wow, this is very promising for HSF.
May I ask if they're big, established players or new ones/startups?
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Offline Political Hack Wannabe

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How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #21 on: 03/23/2018 08:47 pm »
This is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices.
Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.
This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.

Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn.  And that isn't true.  I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other options

So, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn

<5M$ per person means you have to launch the rocket + the capsule to orbit and back for 30M$ if it's a traditional system with a 6-7 person crew. To achieve this operational reusability is required. The other (and even more cost efficient) way is to develop much bigger human rated capsules with low cost reusable HLVs capable of launching them. I fail to see any organization in the world capable of and willing to offer those capabilities a part from SX and BO.
Which other options are you thinking about?
The ones I know of are not public, unfortunately.  But there are others working on low priced launch
Wow, this is very promising for HSF.
May I ask if they're big, established players or new ones/startups?

You can ask, but I can't really answer - NDAs and such
« Last Edit: 03/27/2018 01:59 pm by Political Hack Wannabe »
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Offline high road

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #22 on: 03/24/2018 08:45 am »
This is not an established market with many competitive players that gradually bring down prices.
Real reductions will be relatively abrupt and happen as soon as new systems and new capabilities come online.
This currently means when BFR and New Glenn come online and can launch tourists reliably.
No other system in development can bring the cost per tourist to LEO below 5M$.

Actually, that assumes that the only vehicles in development that fit this category are the BFR and New Glenn.  And that isn't true.  I will say, they are the only ones that are PUBLICLY known, but there are other options

So, it's not dependent upon either BFR or New Glenn

<5M$ per person means you have to launch the rocket + the capsule to orbit and back for 30M$ if it's a traditional system with a 6-7 person crew. To achieve this operational reusability is required. The other (and even more cost efficient) way is to develop much bigger human rated capsules with low cost reusable HLVs capable of launching them. I fail to see any organization in the world capable of and willing to offer those capabilities a part from SX and BO.
Which other options are you thinking about?
The ones I know of are not public, unfortunately.  But there are others working on low priced launch
Wow, this is very promising for HSF.
May I ask if they're big, established players or new ones/startups?

Don't hold your breath. Mentioning NDA's is a big no no if you've actually signed an NDA. And we would be talking about players who would need to have attracted full funding to deliver in the same timeframe as the known players. While recruiting all the highly specialised profiles they need outside of the usual pool where all of their competitors recruit, or they would not be able to stay below the radar, at least not the radar of this forum. Which means they're not recruiting much, or are recruiting people who still are totally inexperienced. Are there others planning cheaper access to space? Sure. Will they beat SpaceX/BO to the punch rather than maybe eventually compete with them? Not a chance. Prices would have started dropping considerably before then, or the lack of an existing demand revealed.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #23 on: 03/27/2018 03:33 am »
I'm pretty pro-space-awesomeness, but I voted after 2029. That is only 11 years away, and it'll take time for seats to get cheaper.

I could be wrong, here.
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Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Modified the polll - How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #24 on: 03/27/2018 05:47 am »
Perhaps the poll may go on forever, but I’d prefer it if the “l”’s didn’t...

(Before I get the “huh?” comment from a mod - I mean, please fix the typo in the thread’s title)
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How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #25 on: 03/27/2018 01:37 pm »
I'm pretty pro-space-awesomeness, but I voted after 2029. That is only 11 years away, and it'll take time for seats to get cheaper.

I could be wrong, here.
Wow, I didn't expect this from you  ;D
There's something that makes you doubt the BFR more than before? It should be relatively straightforward to go well below 5M$ per seat to LEO, if the concept works. Or do you think they will wait >5-10 years from the maiden launch before flying tourists?
« Last Edit: 03/28/2018 06:26 am by Lar »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #26 on: 03/28/2018 06:16 am »
I think BFR will work, but it’s going to take a while before they will be doing a bunch of tourist flights. They got Mars missions and a huge LEO constellation to focus on first.
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Offline Lar

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #27 on: 03/28/2018 06:31 am »
Perhaps the poll may go on forever, but I’d prefer it if the “l”’s didn’t...

(Before I get the “huh?” comment from a mod - I mean, please fix the typo in the thread’s title)
I beleive the correct response from a mod would be "what the 'ell?" [1]

To the question of adding options... it can be done. The options can even be edited to make it look like people voted for things they didn't [2].  But while the former isn't nearly as disruptive as the latter, it disenfranchises those who voted before the option is added... what if they wanted to have voted for it ...   If you're going to change or add options you should reset the votes, IMHO.

1 - had to do it
2 - that's pretty abusive so don't ask.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline john smith 19

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Re: How low can launch costs go in the next ten years
« Reply #28 on: 03/28/2018 06:35 am »

Bypassing the issue of safety, because I agree with your major points on it. 

I accept your point of that is a requirement for prices to come down.  What is your timeframe for that happening?
More than 5 years out I'd say. Unless the company you've alluded to can do it faster.

MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline tyrred

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #29 on: 03/28/2018 07:13 am »
Voted after 2029.
I would love it to be sooner, but I won't be investing or saving money for the possibility that I could catch that ride. 
I'll leave that to the men and women with the moolah and the merit.


Offline high road

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #30 on: 03/28/2018 10:54 am »
Went for 2025, when I think BFR would become operational. Being able to launch all comfort and entertainment along with the passengers should finally convince people who can pay to go into space, to want to go into space. At which point selling as much tickets as possible to spread fixed costs of the tourist-version of the BFR would drive prices down.
« Last Edit: 03/28/2018 12:59 pm by high road »

Offline spacenut

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #31 on: 03/28/2018 12:51 pm »
I don't think the prices will come down until the competition heats up.  A lot depends on New Glenn and Jeff Bezos.  Once SpaceX gets wound up with launching their Constellation and gets BFR/BFS going along with F9 and FH, I think they will keep their prices just below the competition but not too low as they need the cash for their Mars ambitions.  By the mid-2020's I think SLS will go away with BFR/BFS as well as NG and maybe New Armstrong by then.  If Vulcan takes off and Orbital/ATK's NGL take's off, I just don't see how those two can lower costs develop ACES and in space refueling. 

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #32 on: 03/28/2018 01:36 pm »
Expecting a slow gradual decline in launch prices by the middle of the next decade through a combination of reuse, advanced manufacturing methods and competition creating a huge supply of LVs. New Glenn and F9/FH should both be flying regularly by then. DARPA XS-1 would be commercialized also in this timeframe. New technology in international launchers will further lower prices such as Ariane 6, H3, Proton Light, CZ5 and others. Costs of Soyuz will probably decline further due to mass manufacturing the launcher to put up LEO Constellations which is a market it's well positioned to serve.

After 2030, when BFR and Vulcan ACES have both flown with propellant production on a small international lunar base, things will become much more interesting for launch costs and I expect a rapid decline in the 30s and whole new use cases we can't yet imagine for space to emerge.

Crewed flights to orbit I expect to be stickier when it comes to price and don't expect large declines until after the 2030s. Getting the price per seat below even $20 million is going to take a while although I expect Soyuz to be effectively privatized and marketed for space tourism purposes as soon as Federatsiya takes over some time in the next decade. By the year 2030, I expect the amount of people  (government and private) that have ever been to orbit will have doubled from the current figure, which is about 562.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #33 on: 05/10/2018 07:21 pm »
Here’s a datum point for current pricing:

About 30-50 Block 5s are planned.  Dependent on how many customers demand to launch on a new rocket.


Right now, flight-proven F9s are priced at $50 million USD.  New boosters are $60 million USD.

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #34 on: 05/10/2018 07:42 pm »
Quote
Musk: Propellant for a launch is only about $300,000 or $400,000. Still hoping to get the marginal cost of a Falcon 9 launch down to $5-$6 million.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/994652039006359552

Offline skybum

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Re: How soon will launch prices go down?
« Reply #35 on: 05/14/2018 11:12 am »
About 30-50 Block 5s are planned.  Dependent on how many customers demand to launch on a new rocket.


Right now, flight-proven F9s are priced at $50 million USD.  New boosters are $60 million USD.

Okay, let's crunch some numbers! Further points of interest:

> Stage 1 is 60% of the cost, Stage 2 20%, Fairing 10%, everything else 10%.

$50/$60M is the *price*, not the *cost*. But let's assume that $60M price tag is zero-margin, so the higher number is also the cost of an expended rocket. That means the actual costs are:

Stage 1: $36M
Stage 2: $12M
Fairing : $6M (correlates nicely with other sources)
Everything else: $6M

Let's make some further assumptions:

1. Stage 1 genuinely can be reused 10x with no significant refurbishment.
2. "Significant refurbishment" costs more or less as much as building a new stage, so let's only worry about point 1.
3. Once enough customers get comfortable with reusing rockets -- which should happen soon --nobody will pay a $10M premium simply to fly on a virgin rocket. So the costs will have to be amortised over multiple flights, not on the first flight.
4. Successful fairing reuse means amortising across 10 flights
5. Successful stage 2 reuse means amortising across 10 flights
6. "Everything else" will never decrease; even though efficiencies in existing operations will be found, reusing more of the rocket will incur additional recovery and integration costs.

If these assumptions hold true, then the amortised COST (as opposed to PRICE) of different scenarios is as follows:

1. Current block 5: $27.6M
2. Block 5 with fairing recovery: $22.7M
3. Block 5 with fairing + second stage recovery: $11.4M

Given the non-trivial amount of effort in retrieving and re-integrating various rocket pieces, I'm extremely dubious that the cost of the Falcon series could ever go lower than this, reaching the $5-$6M that Musk hopes for. Maybe with really substantial automation in the recovery and integration processes. But, hard to imagine. Any anyhow: price will always be higher.

Since this question is based on human spaceflight, we can remove the fairing from that calculation, and add the Dragon. What is the cost of a dragon? Dragon V1 is priced about $60M per flight. However: A.) There's probably a substantial "NASA premium" on that price, and B.) We don't really know how reusable V2 will be. So let's make some assumptions:

1. V2 is a much more advanced craft than V1. Let's say the cost of that cancels out the NASA premium. So an actual base cost of $60M per vehicle
3. For symmetry, let's say 10X reuse.
4. Let's say: 5 paying passengers and 2 crew.

This means that on an amortised basis, a Dragon 2 launch should add about $6M to the cost of launch (but removes the cost of the fairing). Meaning:

1. On current Block 5: $27.6M ($5.52M per paying passenger)
2. W/ 2nd-stage recovery: $16.8M ($3.46M per paying passenger)

Of course there are other costs associated with the price of a ticket to space. If you are flying to a destination (such as a Bigelow station), then you have to amortise the cost of the destination. But on the face of it, we can say:

1. $5M per passenger requires either BFR or a reusable second stage. It can't be done with an expendable S2.
2. If/when S2 is reusable, the ticket price technically can be less than $5M per passenger; whether it actually is is a commercial decision.

The latter point is all about market elasticity. If there is a market for (say) 1,000 seats/year at $5M/seat vs. 100 seats/year at $20M/seat, then the former market will generate more gross revenue: $5B/year vs. $2B/year. However the former will only generate profit of $1.54M/seat, vs. $16.54M/seat for the latter. Even with 10x less volume, the more expensive seats would generate $100M more profit per year. A company driven by short-term profits, rather than long-term strategy, Would go for the $20M seats rather than the $5M seats.

But SpaceX isn't driven by quarterly earnings. I don't think they want to lose money on any flights, but a 10-fold increase in human spaceflight would positively impact their long-term strategy in other, not immediately financial, but still very important ways. It would would stimulate the development of more services for humans in space: better/cheaper habitats, life-support systems, cultural products that consume/promote spaceflight, etc. This can only benefit them in the long term. Therefore, I believe that SpaceX will offer seats in the ~$5M range as soon as the marginal cost falls below that threshold. But this will take both:

1. The BFR/BFS or decent reusability of the F9 second stage
2. A destination that can serve guests for less than $1.54M/stay. (The BFS, on its own, could probably be such a destination).

I believe both of these conditions will be satisfied by 2024, and therefore that's my vote. Haven't done any further analysis to back up this belief; it's just a hunch.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2018 11:16 am by skybum »

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