Atlas V N22 : Starliner OFT-2 : Canaveral SLC-41 : 19 May 2022 (22:54 UTC)

[WannaWalnetto]

Based upon what’s posted up thread, the current working theory is that the Starliner problem(s) stem from close proximity electrical storms?  And these storms happened either on August 1st or August 2nd?

If the above statements turn out to be true, then the Nauka problems that pushed this launch to the right DIRECTLY AFFECTED the OFT-2 launch.  August lightning would not have been an issue if the launch occurred on July 30th as planned.

Of course that assumes that there were no weather or range violations on the 30th.

Edit:  Added source for electrical storm news —> https://starlinerupdates.com/nasa-boeing-to-delay-starliner-launch/

[rdale]

Based upon what’s posted up thread, the current working theory is that the Starliner problem(s) stem from close proximity electrical storms?

I’ve only done a cursory plot - but I don’t see any extremely close lightning strikes in the timeframe Starliner was out there. How far away do you think the strike could be to still impact the spacecraft?

[lrk]

If Starliner is delayed enough to conflict with Lucy, I imagine they would swap the Centaur (since OFT-2 is using the dual-engine Centaur) and use the OFT booster with no SRBs?  Would save a bit of schedule margin in not needing to replace the booster.  But was there extra mission-specific certification work done on the boosters assigned to either mission?

In before Jim or another NSF guru; and I think this very suggestion has been offered before, perhaps even earlier in this campaign?

No.  Not gonna happen.

What's not gonna happen?  Starliner being delayed until October?  That is definitely one possible outcome at this time. 

Or do you mean that if there are delays to the point that a manifest swap is needed, they would destack the entire Atlas V including the CBC?  That is what I was asking, whether there are mission-specific difference between cores, in certification paper trails or otherwise, that would require flying cores with their currently-assigned missions. 

Edit: (I'm just not sure how to parse what part of that you are saying "no" to, that's all.)

[lrk]

Based upon what’s posted up thread, the current working theory is that the Starliner problem(s) stem from close proximity electrical storms?  And these storms happened either on August 1st or August 2nd?

If the above statements turn out to be true, then the Nauka problems that pushed this launch to the right DIRECTLY AFFECTED the OFT-2 launch.  August lightning would not have been an issue if the launch occurred on July 30th as planned.

Of course that assumes that there were no weather or range violations on the 30th.

Edit:  Added source for electrical storm news —> https://starlinerupdates.com/nasa-boeing-to-delay-starliner-launch/

It's not clear to me, but the phrasing seems to allow the interpretation that the valve issue already existed, but wasn't noticed until the (standard?) additional checks that were triggered by proximity to lightning. 

In which case it is possible (just speculating!) that the delay means a potential loss-of-mission issue was caught that otherwise wouldn't have been.

[Rondaz]

NASA, Boeing Continue Starliner Data Analysis

Patricia Bielling Posted on August 4, 2021

NASA and Boeing are continuing to work through steps to determine what caused the unexpected valve position indications on the CST-100 Starliner propulsion system.

The United Launch Alliance Atlas V with the Starliner spacecraft on top will be returned to its Vertical Integration Facility (VIF) at Launch Complex-41 on Cape Canaveral Space Force Station Thursday where engineers will have direct access to Starliner for continued troubleshooting.

The data will drive any corrective measures that may be necessary to ensure Starliner is ready for launch. When NASA’s Commercial Crew Program and Boeing Space agree the issue is resolved, a new launch opportunity will be selected, taking into account the readiness of all parties involved.

“The Boeing and NASA teams are working methodically to understand what caused the valve indications on the Starliner service module propulsion system,” Steve Stich, manager of the Commercial Crew Program, said. “The troubleshooting in the Vertical Integration Facility will help focus on potential causes and next steps before we fly the OFT-2 mission.”

Early in the launch countdown for the Tuesday, Aug. 3 launch attempt, engineers detected indications that not all of Starliner’s propulsion system valves were in the proper configuration needed for launch of the company’s second uncrewed orbital flight test to the International Space Station, a mission designed to test the end-to-end capabilities of the crew-capable system as part of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program.

Mission teams decided to halt the countdown to further analyze the issue, which was conducted later Tuesday via several steps to troubleshoot the incorrect valve indications, including cycling the service module propulsion system valves.

After presenting the data to NASA and Boeing managers, it was decided to relocate the Atlas V and Starliner to the VIF for further inspection and testing where access to the spacecraft is available for further inspection and testing. Engineering teams have ruled out a number of potential causes, including software, and the direct access is required to continue the assessment.

“This mission is extremely important for the Commercial Crew Program on the path to the Boeing Crewed Flight Test,” Stich said. “We will fly the mission when we are ready. I am extremely proud of the NASA and Boeing teams for their professionalism, perseverance, and methodical approach to solving complex problems.”

NASA and Boeing will take whatever time is necessary to ensure Starliner is ready for its important uncrewed flight test to the space station and will look for the next available opportunity after resolution of the issue.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/oft-2/2021/08/04/nasa-boeing-continue-starliner-data-analysis/

[jimothytones]

Based upon what’s posted up thread, the current working theory is that the Starliner problem(s) stem from close proximity electrical storms?

I’ve only done a cursory plot - but I don’t see any extremely close lightning strikes in the timeframe Starliner was out there. How far away do you think the strike could be to still impact the spacecraft?

I was out at a cocoa beach bar during the storm Sunday night and I'm certain I saw multiple direct strikes to the LPS towers at pads 40 and 41, unless my liquor soaked vacation brain is making stuff up again

[rdale]

Well striking the towers really wouldn’t be a big deal since the towers take the juice I think he’s referring to direct hits on the spacecraft and I can’t see any evidence that happened.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

http://parabolicarc.com/2021/08/04/next-boeing-starliner-launch-could-be-weeks-to-months-away/

Next Boeing Starliner Launch Could be Weeks to Months Away
August 4, 2021  Doug Messier  News

by Douglas Messier
Managing Editor

It could take between several weeks and two months for Boeing to work through the valve problems that resulted in the launch scrub of the Starliner spacecraft on Tuesday, a source tells Parabolic Arc.

The killer line is that the source says more than half of the 24 propulsion valves in the service module are affected ….

[Vettedrmr]

The killer line is that the source says more than half of the 24 propulsion valves in the service module are affected ….

That almost sounds like a data bus failure.  Mind you, I expect the data busses to be at least dual-redundant, so it's still a mess.  OTOH, a lost bus should be identified immediately on a test flight console), so I would have expected Boeing to state they had a catastrophic (i.e. scrubbing the flight) failure of a communication system than just errant valve positions.

Dang it, I really want them to have a successful flight: "patience, dear boy."

[Rebel44]

A very interesting piece of information us detail-oriented Space Cadets:

@torybruno how fast is Atlas V able to turn around? i.e. launch of one mission to the next from the same pad.

Depends, but nominally 17 days.

17 days is substantially less than the ~1 month minimum turnaround in Atlas V's track record.

The actual Atlas V's track record is why I expect that for NASA/ISS planning purposes they would use a less optimistic estimate.

[Frogstar_Robot]

It's interesting that they have ruled out software, it suggests the valves are dead. Add the fact that half the valves are affected, and it sounds very much like an overvoltage on a valve connection, which could be the result of a nearby lightning strike...

Sure, this is probably a screw up in the design or manufacture, and the valves may not have been qualified properly. But complex systems find unexpected ways to fail. It could be a loose or disconnected ground strap somewhere, which allowed excessive current to get into places it was not expected.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1423296915978932235

Yesterday, ULA drained RP-1 fuel from the Atlas 5 rocket to protect for the possibility the launcher will have to be disassembled in the event of a lengthy launch delay for the Starliner OFT-2 mission.

‘possibility’ here sounds like the PR word for ‘expectation’. Hope I’m wrong, but sounding like a lengthy delay is most likely.

[Rondaz]

Our #Starliner and @ulalaunch teams are rolling back the spacecraft and rocket this morning. This trip back to the Vertical Integration Facility will give engineers the ability to continue inspections and troubleshooting for #OFT2.

https://twitter.com/BoeingSpace/status/1423297469509681154

[lrk]

Well striking the towers really wouldn’t be a big deal since the towers take the juice I think he’s referring to direct hits on the spacecraft and I can’t see any evidence that happened.

A lightning strike basically creates a mini-EMP.  That could be enough to damage nearby sensitive electronics that aren't properly shielded/protected.  This can be compounded as rockets have lots of long wires (internal busses as well as GSE/umbilicals) that can basically act as antennas.  So a strike on one of the towers could still be a bad day, abit not as bad as a direct hit on the rocket. 

[Citabria]

Quite a bit of lightning over the Cape the day before the scrub:
https://www.blitzortung.org/en/historical_maps.php?map=32

[rdale]

There was no lightning anywhere near the pad while it was out there.

[Citabria]

There was no lightning anywhere near the pad while it was out there.

My source has very coarse resolution. But your source is...?

[meekGee]

Also given that they draining the RP-1 from the Atlas I think the conversation should move to the Starliner thread.

[rdale]

There was no lightning anywhere near the pad while it was out there.

My source has very coarse resolution. But your source is...?

A source with 84-meter resolution on average

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://starlinerupdates.com/starliner-atlas-v-secured-in-vertical-integration-facility/

Starliner, Atlas V Secured in Vertical Integration Facility
August 5, 2021

This morning, the CST-100 Starliner spacecraft, atop an Atlas V rocket, returned to the Vertical Integration Facility (VIF) as work continues for Starliner’s second uncrewed orbital flight test.

Teams from Boeing and United Launch Alliance (ULA) have begun assembly of necessary support structures around the spacecraft to access the vehicle’s Service Module.

Boeing engineers are progressing a systematic inspection and troubleshooting plan to determine the cause of the unexpected valve position indications in the Service Module’s propulsion system, which led to the scrub of Tuesday’s launch.

One of the first steps will be to power on the spacecraft, a process that takes several hours. This step will enable the team to send commands to the Starliner and receive data real-time.

“We’re letting the data drive our decision-making and we will not fly until our integrated teams are comfortable and confident,” said John Vollmer, vice president and program manager, Boeing’s Commercial Crew Program.

Updates will be provided by NASA and Boeing as information is available.

Please follow @NASA, @Commercial_Crew and @BoeingSpace on Twitter, or visit www.nasa.gov or www.StarlinerUpdates.com, for more information.