LIVE: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 - June 29, 2012

[Star One]

1.  Its brightness is also consistent with my highly speculative pre-launch guess of a GEO decoy to cover for a Misty that would have ended up in a LEO ~35 deg orbit, but that proves nothing.

2.   Until recently, an explanation that would support the heavy SIGINT hypothesis eluded me, but I believe I have made some progress.

3.  NROL-15 seems mysterious due to the need to upgrade the Delta IV-Heavy's main engines to launch it, and the apparent ~11 year delay in launching it, based on its NROL number.

1.  This is what I mean is ludicrous.  To even come up with this scenario, when it is simpler to explain that numbers were reassigned.

2.  Why not just an upgrade to the spacecraft that has been in the planning for a while. 

3.  Not so much when the explanation can be so simple.

Example, GPS-IIF was being integrated onto EELV's while GPS-IIR's were flying on Delta II's.

I would have thought the most likely explanation is that it's something like an upgraded/block 2 Mentor that needed greater launch capacity?

Especially the brightness issue which is quoted on the link up thread as being similar to past launches in the sequence, as the old saying goes if it walks like a duck & quacks like a duck then it probably is a duck without the need for exotic explanations.

[Jim]

1.  Its brightness is also consistent with my highly speculative pre-launch guess of a GEO decoy to cover for a Misty that would have ended up in a LEO ~35 deg orbit, but that proves nothing.

2.   Until recently, an explanation that would support the heavy SIGINT hypothesis eluded me, but I believe I have made some progress.

3.  NROL-15 seems mysterious due to the need to upgrade the Delta IV-Heavy's main engines to launch it, and the apparent ~11 year delay in launching it, based on its NROL number.

1.  This is what I mean is ludicrous.  To even come up with this scenario, when it is simpler to explain that numbers were reassigned.

2.  Why not just an upgrade to the spacecraft that has been in the planning for a while. 

3.  Not so much when the explanation can be so simple.

Example, GPS-IIF was being integrated onto EELV's while GPS-IIR's were flying on Delta II's.

I would have thought the most likely explanation is that it's something like an upgraded/block 2 Mentor that needed greater launch capacity?

That is my point #2

[Star One]

1.  Its brightness is also consistent with my highly speculative pre-launch guess of a GEO decoy to cover for a Misty that would have ended up in a LEO ~35 deg orbit, but that proves nothing.

2.   Until recently, an explanation that would support the heavy SIGINT hypothesis eluded me, but I believe I have made some progress.

3.  NROL-15 seems mysterious due to the need to upgrade the Delta IV-Heavy's main engines to launch it, and the apparent ~11 year delay in launching it, based on its NROL number.

1.  This is what I mean is ludicrous.  To even come up with this scenario, when it is simpler to explain that numbers were reassigned.

2.  Why not just an upgrade to the spacecraft that has been in the planning for a while. 

3.  Not so much when the explanation can be so simple.

Example, GPS-IIF was being integrated onto EELV's while GPS-IIR's were flying on Delta II's.

I would have thought the most likely explanation is that it's something like an upgraded/block 2 Mentor that needed greater launch capacity?

That is my point #2

What left me scratching my head was the need on the link posted above to reach for some exotic explanation as to what it was.

[Targeteer]

An update on NROL-15 and NROL-38

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jul-2012/0228.html

[spectre9]

So I'm guessing mid-east which is no surprise given the military activity in that area.

But why is it so big?

What is it set to detect that other spacecraft might not have been able to before?

[Star One]

So I'm guessing mid-east which is no surprise given the military activity in that area.

But why is it so big?

What is it set to detect that other spacecraft might not have been able to before?

Aren't they all big in this class of satellites.

Quoting Wikipedia here, Bruce Carlson stated that they are "(...) the largest satellite in the world".

[edkyle99]

But why is it so big?

Maybe a giant antenna farm, with a giant set of solar arrays to power the receivers and/or amplifiers and/or electric thrusters. 

 - Ed Kyle

[Star One]

But why is it so big?

Maybe a giant antenna farm, with a giant set of solar arrays to power the receivers and/or amplifiers and/or electric thrusters. 

 - Ed Kyle

It has a 100 meter antenna according to speculation.

[Robotbeat]

But why is it so big?

Maybe a giant antenna farm, with a giant set of solar arrays to power the receivers and/or amplifiers and/or electric thrusters. 

 - Ed Kyle

It has a 100 meter antenna according to speculation.

SIGINT?

Has anyone produced an estimate of its diameter from /observation/?

You know, those enormous SIGINT satellites are pretty amazing to me. What I would do to see a REAL (usable resolution) picture of one deployed in all of its glory, even if it's a really old one.

[kevin-rf]

You know, those enormous SIGINT satellites are pretty amazing to me. What I would do to see a REAL (usable resolution) picture of one deployed in all of its glory, even if it's a really old one.

I would be willing to bet that even the people who build and operate them would be willing to sell a first born to see such a picture. Not an easy picture to take. Especially as far as GSO.

Of course, even on comsats I have always wondered why they don't install a simple camera of some sort to confirm they have deployed correctly and trouble shoot any issues. Would have been interesting with Intelsat 19's solar panel. But I digress...

[Rocket Guy]

They have had onboard cameras on several GEO satellites in recent years to show antenna deployment, and a few of those images/videos have been released.

Here is one example:

http://eclipticenterprises.com/system/images/352/full_screen_width/2008%20Apr_ICO%20G1%20GEOCam.jpg?1317587871

[Blackstar]

But why is it so big?

Maybe a giant antenna farm, with a giant set of solar arrays to power the receivers and/or amplifiers and/or electric thrusters. 

 - Ed Kyle

It has a 100 meter antenna according to speculation.

And speculation is never wrong.

Don't believe everything that you read on globalsecurity.



EDITED UPDATE:

Okay, I realize that was too snarky. My point is that in the past there has been wild speculation that these things have carried giant antennas (for different definitions of "giant"). But giant antennas may not be the most important requirement for these birds. And giant structures present some major challenges. So the actual answer may be much smaller than the speculation.

[Star One]

But why is it so big?

Maybe a giant antenna farm, with a giant set of solar arrays to power the receivers and/or amplifiers and/or electric thrusters. 

 - Ed Kyle

It has a 100 meter antenna according to speculation.

And speculation is never wrong.

Don't believe everything that you read on globalsecurity.



EDITED UPDATE:

Okay, I realize that was too snarky. My point is that in the past there has been wild speculation that these things have carried giant antennas (for different definitions of "giant"). But giant antennas may not be the most important requirement for these birds. And giant structures present some major challenges. So the actual answer may be much smaller than the speculation.

The speculation as I understand it comes from the high level of brightness that they display for a satellite in a GEO orbit, it's this facet that is supposed to make them identifiable as Mentor satellites, or so the web scuttlebutt goes.

On another spaceflight related website there was a comment that some amateur satellite hunters were able to image these satellites but didn't release anything to uphold national security. Not sure how accurate a thought that is?

By the way I have never heard of the globalsecurity website, instead this was something i had read on another space related site.

[kevin-rf]

On another spaceflight related website there was a comment that some amateur satellite hunters were able to image these satellites but didn't release anything to uphold national security. Not sure how accurate a thought that is?

In GSO, that would be a pretty good hat trick. Now LEO birds with big antenna's like Lacrosse and FIA-R I could be seen. There are actually Lacrosse pictures floating around the internet ( http://prometheus.med.utah.edu/~bwjones/2007/09/satellite-spotting/ ). but GSO?

Footnote:

For images with 1m resolution in GSO requires a roughly diffraction limited 20 meter mirror.

dia = 1.22 * (36,000 km * 1000 m<distance>) (500 nm / 1,000,000,000 m<wavelength>) / 1 m <resolution> = 21.9 meters.

For 10 meter resolution, you need a 2 meter mirror.

[Robotbeat]

On another spaceflight related website there was a comment that some amateur satellite hunters were able to image these satellites but didn't release anything to uphold national security. Not sure how accurate a thought that is?

In GSO, that would be a pretty good hat trick. Now LEO birds with big antenna's like Lacrosse and FIA-R I could be seen. There are actually Lacrosse pictures floating around the internet ( http://prometheus.med.utah.edu/~bwjones/2007/09/satellite-spotting/ ). but GSO?

Footnote:

For images with 1m resolution in GSO requires a roughly diffraction limited 20 meter mirror.

dia = 1.22 * (36,000 km * 1000 m<distance>) (500 nm / 1,000,000,000 m<wavelength>) / 1 m <resolution> = 21.9 meters.

For 10 meter resolution, you need a 2 meter mirror.

For ~30 meter resolution (enough to see if this really is a giant SIGINT bird 100 meters across), you need just a ~25 incher (plus a lot of image processing and "lucky imaging"). The astronomy club I belong to has a few in that range or better. But there are other ways, like making a light curve of the spacecraft, seeing if it's brightness is consistent with whatever size, given an estimated albedo.

[baldusi]

On another spaceflight related website there was a comment that some amateur satellite hunters were able to image these satellites but didn't release anything to uphold national security. Not sure how accurate a thought that is?

In GSO, that would be a pretty good hat trick. Now LEO birds with big antenna's like Lacrosse and FIA-R I could be seen. There are actually Lacrosse pictures floating around the internet ( http://prometheus.med.utah.edu/~bwjones/2007/09/satellite-spotting/ ). but GSO?

Footnote:

For images with 1m resolution in GSO requires a roughly diffraction limited 20 meter mirror.

dia = 1.22 * (36,000 km * 1000 m<distance>) (500 nm / 1,000,000,000 m<wavelength>) / 1 m <resolution> = 21.9 meters.

For 10 meter resolution, you need a 2 meter mirror.

The method they are speaking of is treating it as a point source. You don't need that much resolution, just have to have a relatively dark background within your resolution limit.

[Star One]

On another spaceflight related website there was a comment that some amateur satellite hunters were able to image these satellites but didn't release anything to uphold national security. Not sure how accurate a thought that is?

In GSO, that would be a pretty good hat trick. Now LEO birds with big antenna's like Lacrosse and FIA-R I could be seen. There are actually Lacrosse pictures floating around the internet ( http://prometheus.med.utah.edu/~bwjones/2007/09/satellite-spotting/ ). but GSO?

Footnote:

For images with 1m resolution in GSO requires a roughly diffraction limited 20 meter mirror.

dia = 1.22 * (36,000 km * 1000 m<distance>) (500 nm / 1,000,000,000 m<wavelength>) / 1 m <resolution> = 21.9 meters.

For 10 meter resolution, you need a 2 meter mirror.

Thanks for that link, mind you I don't think any secrets will be infringed by how little detail you can see there, but it proves a point .

I have already posted this article on another thread on here but it's where the comment I was referring to in my post above comes from.

http://spaceflightnow.com/atlas/av023/payload.html

I could imagine LEO objects being visible but I felt less certain when it came to commenting on GSO.

[kevin-rf]

The method they are speaking of is treating it as a point source. You don't need that much resolution, just have to have a relatively dark background within your resolution limit.

Funny, I read Star One's post as imaging the bird in enough detail to see the antennae structure. That is not a point source, a point source is well within the capabilities of most amateurs. Happenings in GSO are regularly reported on by amateurs, it is an interesting space to watch (who is moving, flashing, drifting, ect). High resolution imaging of individual birds in GSO is beyond the capabilities of amateurs, which was my point. 

Anyway we are taking this badly off topic. It will be decades before the NRO releases any true details of what this satellite looks like. I think we can all agree on that. Is it bright because it has a giant antennae, or because it has multiple antenna? Even Jim does not know.

[Star One]

The method they are speaking of is treating it as a point source. You don't need that much resolution, just have to have a relatively dark background within your resolution limit.

Funny, I read Star One's post as imaging the bird in enough detail to see the antennae structure. That is not a point source, a point source is well within the capabilities of most amateurs. Happenings in GSO are regularly reported on by amateurs, it is an interesting space to watch (who is moving, flashing, drifting, ect). High resolution imaging of individual birds in GSO is beyond the capabilities of amateurs, which was my point. 

Anyway we are taking this badly off topic. It will be decades before the NRO releases any true details of what this satellite looks like. I think we can all agree on that. Is it bright because it has a giant antennae, or because it has multiple antenna? Even Jim does not know.

Just to clarify I did mean direct imaging of them.

So is the consensus on this satellite that it was a Mentor of some type, probably an upgraded version and the confusion has come because it was probably launched under a recycled number from another probably cancelled project?

[Lurker Steve]

If this thing really does have a huge antenna, in the 75-100m range, how does that compare to the Webb Telescope solar shade ?

It would seem that someone already knows how to reliably build large structures that can fold up for launch, and then deploy into a large structure once on orbit.