Author Topic: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21  (Read 83650 times)

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #140 on: 03/26/2014 03:26 am »
Spacex says the rocket is exclusively for Mars, but does anyone here really think they'd say no to Bigelow wanting to use the MCT to send 100 people to a mega space station?  There are all sorts of missions that don't involve Mars that are possible,

That's irrelevant. Lobo's comments contradicted Gwynne. That's the only reason I suggested he go listen to the interview before commenting.
« Last Edit: 03/26/2014 05:25 am by QuantumG »
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline luinil

Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #141 on: 03/26/2014 03:52 am »
For me she is saying that the raptor rocket will be designed and produced with the focus on Mars only, and nothing more. They do not want (but she said that they would think of it if an offer was done) to focus out to adapt it to other purposes.

She did not said that if someone wanted to use the rocket as it is for another purpose, they would not allow them.

i.e. : they will build a Mars rocket, if you can use the Mars rocket to do other things, you can, but they will not use time and money to change the design to other goals.
The rocket will not be used only for Mars launches, it will be designed only for Mars launches, that's different.

Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #142 on: 03/26/2014 03:58 am »
For me she is saying that the raptor rocket will be designed and produced with the focus on Mars only, and nothing more. They do not want (but she said that they would think of it if an offer was done) to focus out to adapt it to other purposes.

She did not said that if someone wanted to use the rocket as it is for another purpose, they would not allow them.

i.e. : they will build a Mars rocket, if you can use the Mars rocket to do other things, you can, but they will not use time and money to change the design to other goals.
The rocket will not be used only for Mars launches, it will be designed only for Mars launches, that's different.

Would a good analogy for this be the Saturn V being later repurposed to launch Skylab? I can't remember at what point in the development of the Saturn that Skylab first arose. The dry workshop variant, anyway.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #143 on: 03/26/2014 03:59 am »
She did not said that if someone wanted to use the rocket as it is for another purpose, they would not allow them.

Actually, she did say they wouldn't redirect SpaceX onto a path that wasn't to Mars. Listen to the interview.

Quote from: luinil
The rocket will not be used only for Mars launches, it will be designed only for Mars launches, that's different.

Lobo seems to be of the belief that SpaceX intends to use a Raptor-based vehicle for launching satellites to GTO, and that this is SpaceX's plan. I have no idea where he gets this stuff from, but Gwynne has specifically said that's not the case.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline luinil

Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #144 on: 03/26/2014 04:39 am »
My understanding of it is that they will develop a Mars rocket, not a GTO rocket, and that they do not want to use time and money on developing a GTO rocket.

But I did not get the impression that they would forbid the use of the Mars rocket for other purposes. ie if you have a GTO payload that can use the Mars rocket, you might be able to use it.

I tried to listen again to the show, and when she is asked about Moon questions she says that they would consider it, points being how much modifications are needed, is the goal interesting enough to divert the teams focus, and cost. I think this part is more about the falcon 9 and Heavy, but the same kind of thinking might apply to the mars vehicles (I don't remember of a part forbidding it, but maybe that's only me).

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #145 on: 03/26/2014 04:48 am »
Lobo seems to be of the belief that SpaceX intends to use a Raptor-based vehicle for launching satellites to GTO, and that this is SpaceX's plan. I have no idea where he gets this stuff from, but Gwynne has specifically said that's not the case.

Now *you* are the one putting words in her mouth. She said it would be designed for getting to Mars, but she did not explicitly say that it would never be used for anything else.

I never said she did. What I said is that Lobo's theory that SpaceX plan to use the Mars rocket for GTO launches is so obviously wrong and that no-one could possibly come away with that impression by listening to the interview so he should go listen to the damn interview.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline luinil

Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #146 on: 03/26/2014 05:13 am »
Any vehicle with a Raptor engine is a decade away and will only be used for Mars launches. I don't know how Gwynne could have made this more clear. If you haven't already listened to the show, please do.

You said that the mars rocket will be used only for mars launches. It's the point where I'm not following you.

Yes the vehicle will not be designed with GTO launches in mind, but that do not equals that it will never be used for GTO launches.

Offline neilh

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #147 on: 03/26/2014 05:41 am »
Any vehicle with a Raptor engine is a decade away and will only be used for Mars launches. I don't know how Gwynne could have made this more clear. If you haven't already listened to the show, please do.

You said that the mars rocket will be used only for mars launches. It's the point where I'm not following you.

Yes the vehicle will not be designed with GTO launches in mind, but that do not equals that it will never be used for GTO launches.

It's called context!

Oh my god. The irony is killing me. Why should we listen to the interview and not just read people's comments about it? So you get the context. Why should you read the entire thread instead of just reading individual comments? So you can get the context.

Here's the actual quote from Shotwell. The context was whether SpaceX would be open to working with another company to create a variant of their rockets optimized for lunar exploration:

"We're pretty focused on the path that we've set up, and that is Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, both LOX/RP vehicles, flying regularly for NASA, for the DOD, and for our commercial customers, while we're working on a much larger LOX/methane system to facilitate settlement to Mars."
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Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #148 on: 03/26/2014 01:46 pm »
A 747 designed for reuse can be used in expendable mode as well.  That doesn't normally mean that you're losing performance when you use it as designed.

A 747 can fly more cargo considerably further if you give up any planning for refueling or taking off again.
This exact capability was used for the Doolittle raid in World War II.

Basically, for a plane or a rocket, you can plan to return it or not.  Each has a cost, each has a capability, and each has customers who may prefer it.

Offline su27k

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #149 on: 03/26/2014 03:05 pm »
Any vehicle with a Raptor engine is a decade away and will only be used for Mars launches. I don't know how Gwynne could have made this more clear. If you haven't already listened to the show, please do.

You said that the mars rocket will be used only for mars launches. It's the point where I'm not following you.

Yes the vehicle will not be designed with GTO launches in mind, but that do not equals that it will never be used for GTO launches.

It's called context!

Oh my god. The irony is killing me. Why should we listen to the interview and not just read people's comments about it? So you get the context. Why should you read the entire thread instead of just reading individual comments? So you can get the context.

Here's the actual quote from Shotwell. The context was whether SpaceX would be open to working with another company to create a variant of their rockets optimized for lunar exploration:

"We're pretty focused on the path that we've set up, and that is Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, both LOX/RP vehicles, flying regularly for NASA, for the DOD, and for our commercial customers, while we're working on a much larger LOX/methane system to facilitate settlement to Mars."

There was another question about BFR's market (and later a question about BFR's use or something), she said human colonization of Mars. But yeah, no mention of exclusivity.

And the BFR is "a decade" or "12 to 13 years" from now is also a misquote, she said SpaceX is aiming for 12 to 13 years for the start of Mars mission, but right now they're doing their other things so need to wait 2 years before they can focus on Mars and get a schedule.

Offline clongton

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #150 on: 03/26/2014 03:13 pm »
The impression I got was that Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are the vehicles for the commercial market.
The Raptor-powered MCT is not intended for the commercial market at all, although that does not preclude a commercial customer purchasing a ride uphill on one, provided it does not distract from or divert the Mars effort.
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Offline Lar

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #151 on: 03/26/2014 03:18 pm »
I'm not clear what additional value this thread is generating at this point, I am seeing good folks getting increasingly heated about smaller and smaller points. Don't do that, ok?

Trimmed a few posts.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #152 on: 03/26/2014 04:06 pm »
Except the return flight is without a payload. On a first stage with a really good mass fraction, this can make a huge difference.
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Offline Lobo

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #153 on: 03/27/2014 06:29 am »
Lobo seems to be of the belief that SpaceX intends to use a Raptor-based vehicle for launching satellites to GTO, and that this is SpaceX's plan. I have no idea where he gets this stuff from, but Gwynne has specifically said that's not the case.

Now *you* are the one putting words in her mouth. She said it would be designed for getting to Mars, but she did not explicitly say that it would never be used for anything else.

I never said she did. What I said is that Lobo's theory that SpaceX plan to use the Mars rocket for GTO launches is so obviously wrong and that no-one could possibly come away with that impression by listening to the interview so he should go listen to the damn interview.

Quantum.  You've mischaracterized what I've said several times on this thread now.  Almost seems like you are doing it...intentionally...?

Let's go back to the whole quote and see why you are.

Since Gwynne said she believed Pad 39A would be too small for the BFG doesn't that implicitly confirm that it'll be three cores?

Possibly, and there may be a single core version, too.

You would think that a pad that could launch Saturn V, could handle a single core BFR at least, although if the pad is configured for F9/FH the support equipment would be incompatible, and they would not want to stop launching F9/FH there while they retrofit, so better to build new pad. Maybe 39C?

Another thought, the BFR will probably never be required to launch anything to GTO, so there is less reason to launch eastward from a site nearest the equator.

A 2-stage BFR with a RTLS booster and reusable upper stage could launch large NRO type payloads to GTO, or dual payload launches to GTO like Ariane 5, and have enough margin to allow for total reusability.  Where FH will need to launch at least partially reusable, if not fully reusable, to get those big birds to GTO.

A fully reusable 2-stage BFR could be cheaper to operate than a partially expendable FH.  So I think there could very well be a business case for BFR-R to go to GTO, or other BLEO trajectories for unmanned commercial and government payloads.
She said that the SHLV aka. BFR is for Mars missions so don't expect it to be used for anything else. F9 and FH will take care of the satellite markets although FH will likely expend the center core on the heaviest missions.

I am referring to the 10m single core LV, not the tri-core SHLV, which I'm sure is intended for sending the final version of MCT to Mars for colonization.  As there's little else such a beast would be used for.

To which you said:


Any vehicle with a Raptor engine is a decade away and will only be used for Mars launches. I don't know how Gwynne could have made this more clear. If you haven't already listened to the show, please do.

To which Robotbeat and I said a couple of things about L2 that we shouldn't have, and they were removed by mods (our bad).
I'll just suggest you get an L2 subscription if you don't already have one, and go do some reading there.

But -when- a 10m single core Raptor powered HLV will be flying is immaterial to your later mischaracterization of my comments.  You seem to keep implying repeatedly something that I wasn't saying.  I was replying to JCC's comment that a BFR will likely never be required to send anything to GTO.  To which I -speculated- there could be a business case for that, if such a 2 stage, fully reusable 10m core LV were cheaper to launch than an FH with only partial reusability as I don't think (but I could be wrong) that a fully reusable FH can get some of the largest NRO type satellites to GTO, if it existed.  Simple logic dictates that, if that were the situation.

But, at no time, did I say that I -know- that the main reason SpaceX is building "FXX-R" is for flying GTO payloads, and I don't give a flying rip what Shotwell said in her interview.  So why do you keep saying that I did?

Additionally, I find it interesting you seem to think that a comment by Gwen Shotwell on a radio station interview in 2014 will forever bind SpaceX's future decision making in regards to their future LV's.  With all due respect to Ms. Shotwell, I think that's putting a little too much gravity to her words.

« Last Edit: 03/27/2014 06:38 am by Lobo »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #154 on: 03/27/2014 06:45 am »
Lobo, I have L2.. post an L2 link and I might have a chance to figure out what you're talking about.

But, at no time, did I say that I -know- that the main reason SpaceX is building "FXX-R" is for flying GTO payloads, and I don't give a flying rip what Shotwell said in her interview.  So why do you keep saying that I did?

Then why are you commenting on this thread at all?

Ya know, I appreciate the wild speculation on this forum as much as anyone else, but that's not what this thread is for. We're trying to discuss what Gywnne said. Imagined scenarios belong elsewhere.
« Last Edit: 03/27/2014 06:59 am by QuantumG »
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Lobo

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Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #155 on: 03/27/2014 03:17 pm »
Lobo, I have L2.. post an L2 link and I might have a chance to figure out what you're talking about.


http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33488.msg1167982#msg1167982


Then why are you commenting on this thread at all?

Ya know, I appreciate the wild speculation on this forum as much as anyone else, but that's not what this thread is for. We're trying to discuss what Gywnne said. Imagined scenarios belong elsewhere.

Don't change the subject.  If that was what you wanted to say, then just say -that-, instead of mischaracterizing what I said.  Why did you repeatedly do that?



Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21
« Reply #156 on: 03/27/2014 06:18 pm »
Locking this thread before any one else has a fit.
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